Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Labor Department announced that if a government shutdown occurs, its statistical agencies will suspend the release of economic data, including the highly anticipated September employment report, which is crucial for market participants and policymakers [1][3]. Group 1: Impact of Government Shutdown - The Labor Department confirmed that during a government shutdown, it will "suspend data collection, processing, and release," affecting key reports like the non-farm payroll data [3]. - The shutdown comes amid rising concerns about the quality of U.S. economic data, which has long been considered the "gold standard" in the industry [3]. - If the shutdown lasts for an extended period, it may lead to delays in the release of other important economic data, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) scheduled for October 15 [5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Strategies - Market participants are preparing for a potential lack of official data, which may lead them to focus more on public statements from Federal Reserve officials, complicating the assessment of future policy directions [1][5]. - Investment firms suggest strategies such as increasing fixed-income asset allocations, buying mid-term U.S. Treasury bonds, and maintaining a cash reserve of 5% to 10% for potential market opportunities post-shutdown [6]. - The potential delay in employment data could lead traders to close or hedge positions in Treasury derivatives, increasing market volatility during this uncertain period [5].

Group 1 - The market is focused on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data for September, with expectations of 59,000 new jobs and an unemployment rate stable at 4.3% [1] - The release of the employment report is contingent on avoiding a government shutdown, with ongoing disagreements between Democrats and Republicans on federal funding [1] - The Federal Reserve is facing challenges in balancing inflation control and job protection, with inflation expected to remain above the target until late 2027 or early 2028 [2] Group 2 - European bond yields are declining, with the 10-year German bond yield down 1.6 basis points to 2.729% and the 10-year Italian bond yield down 2.4 basis points to 3.587% [2] - The UK Chancellor did not disclose where spending cuts will occur in the upcoming budget but emphasized the need to address long-term youth unemployment [3] - Japanese bond yields are also trending down, with the 2-year yield falling to 0.928% and the 10-year yield at 1.642% [3]

来源：滚动播报 Pepperstone分析师迪林·吴称，鉴于黄金持续创新高，美国就业数据将是决定黄金下一步走势的关键。 市场对美联储进一步降息的预期正在支撑黄金。这位研究策略师表示，特朗普的关税政策、地缘政治紧 张局势以及美国政府可能停摆等因素，也刺激了市场对黄金这类避险资产的需求。此外，动量交易者和 持续流入黄金ETF的资金也提供了支撑。本周，市场的目光都集中在美国劳动力市场数据上。迪林·吴 指出，弱于预期的就业人数和失业率持稳将增强美联储放松货币政策的理由，从而进一步推高黄金价 格。目前黄金多头占据主导地位，除非发生重大的意外事件，比如美联储改变立场，否则黄金的阻力最 小路径仍然是上涨。 ...

Group 1 - US stock index futures are up, with Dow futures rising by 0.37%, S&P 500 futures by 0.49%, and Nasdaq futures by 0.64% [1] - Chinese concept stocks are performing well in pre-market trading, with Bilibili, Li Auto, and Alibaba rising over 3.5%, while JD.com, Baidu, and Beike are up over 2.5%, and Xpeng Motors is up over 1% [1] - Spotify's stock is up over 1% in pre-market trading, as JPMorgan raised its target price from $740 to $805 [1] - EA is reportedly negotiating a privatization deal potentially worth $50 billion, with a consortium that may include Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund, Silver Lake, and Jared Kushner's Affinity Partners [1] - Novo Nordisk's stock is down over 3% after Morgan Stanley lowered its target price from 380 Danish Krone to 300 Danish Krone and downgraded its rating from "Equal Weight" to "Underweight" [1] Group 2 - AstraZeneca plans to list on the New York Stock Exchange while retaining its headquarters in the UK, aiming to attract more investors [2] - TotalEnergies has signed an agreement to sell 50% of its North American solar asset portfolio for $950 million to KKR, while retaining operational control [2] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,800 per ounce, reaching a new historical high, driven by investor demand for safe-haven assets amid uncertainties regarding US government shutdown and Federal Reserve policies [2] Group 3 - Jefferies economists suggest that US interest rates may not decline as quickly or significantly as the market expects, due to the resilience of the US economy [3]

Core Insights - Domestic precious metal futures showed mixed performance, with Shanghai gold and silver prices experiencing slight increases, while international precious metals saw a decline in gold prices and a rise in silver prices [1][2] Price Trends - As of September 29, 2025, the main contracts for Shanghai gold and silver were priced at 865.90 CNY per gram (up 1.27%) and 10,919.00 CNY per kilogram (up 3.73%), respectively [1][2] - Internationally, COMEX gold was priced at 3,843.40 USD per ounce (down 1.41%), while COMEX silver was at 47.13 USD per ounce (up 1.64%) [1][2] Market Sentiment - The market is cautious due to ongoing geopolitical conflicts, a potential U.S. government shutdown, and shifts in Federal Reserve monetary policy, which could impact gold's long-term outlook [3] - The upcoming release of the U.S. non-farm payroll report and the Federal Reserve's September meeting minutes are key events to watch, as they may influence market sentiment regarding interest rate cuts [3] Technical Analysis - Last week, spot gold saw a slight increase of 0.3%, with a weekly rise of approximately 2%, reaching a peak of 3,790 USD [4] - The core PCE price index for August met expectations with a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, indicating sustained consumer spending growth [4] - Increased volatility in gold prices is anticipated during the upcoming holiday period, with a focus on whether gold can break previous high points [4]

高盛最新报告指出，美国经济重新加速的可能性正在上升，主要原因包括劳动力市场韧性、财政刺激预 期以及宽松金融环境等多重利好因素。最新公布的首次申请失业救济人数数据令人振奋，而高盛全球投 资研究部门预测，第三季度美国GDP 增长率将达到健康的2.6%，为明年上半年的经济增长提供有力支 撑。 经济重新加速的前景将对美联储货币政策产生重要影响，尤其是在新任主席人选即将出炉的情况 下。高盛指出，2025年与2026年美联储的货币政策路径可能大不相同。对于今年剩余时间，高盛预测政 策利率将逐步正常化至接近中性水准(3-3.5%)，并预计10月与12月各降息25个基点，以避免过度限制劳 动力市场。对于明年，货币政策将高度依赖新主席的政策倾向。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investors are increasingly seeking refuge in precious metals due to uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy amid the looming threat of a U.S. government shutdown, leading to record high gold prices and rising silver prices [1][4][6]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Price Movements - Spot gold prices rose by 1.19% to reach a historical high of $3,805.88 per ounce, marking the sixth consecutive week of increases [1]. - Spot silver increased by over 2%, hitting $47 per ounce, the highest level since May 2011 [4]. - Gold futures for December also saw a rise of 0.6%, reaching $3,831.90 [1]. Group 2: Economic and Policy Context - The political deadlock in Washington is a direct catalyst for the current surge in gold prices, with potential government shutdown impacting key economic reports, including the non-farm payrolls [6]. - Market expectations for further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have intensified, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October and a 65% chance in December, driven by weak employment data [7]. - The stability of inflation, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, supports the market's belief in continued monetary easing [7]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Investment Flows - There is a strong influx of funds into gold-related investment products, with the SPDR Gold Trust's holdings increasing by 0.89% to 1,005.72 tons, the highest level since 2022 [9]. - The overall performance of the gold market has been robust, with prices increasing over 40% year-to-date and the potential for a third consecutive quarter of gains [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Major investment banks, including Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, anticipate that the upward trend in gold prices will continue, influenced by multiple favorable factors [12]. - The focus remains on political developments in Washington and the Federal Reserve's forthcoming actions, which will significantly impact market dynamics [12].

Group 1 - Precious metal prices have strengthened again, with spot gold breaking through $3,800 per ounce, marking a historical high and a year-to-date increase of nearly 45% [1][3] - Spot silver prices also surpassed the key level of $47 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 60% [3] - Domestic gold stocks have surged, with notable increases such as Zhaojin Mining up over 9%, Shandong Gold International up nearly 6%, and Zijin Mining up over 4% [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in international gold prices is influenced by multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy, with market expectations for two more rate cuts of 25 basis points each in October and December [3] - The U.S. dollar index has declined over 10% this year, and experts predict further weakening of the dollar, as the U.S. economic advantage compared to emerging markets is diminishing [5] - The diversification of global central bank reserves is supporting gold prices, with the dollar's share in global reserves dropping from 60% in 2000 to 43% last year, while gold reserves have been increasing [5]

来源：市场资讯 （来源：今日金价行情） 24K99讯 周一(9月29日)亚市盘中，现货黄金突然大幅攀升，金价刚刚触及3798.71美元/盎司，创下纪录 新高，金价日内大涨达到近40美元。 (现货黄金15分钟图 来源：24K99) 美国彭博社周一最新分析称，周一，贵金属价格飙升，金价攀升至历史最高水平，交易员担心美国政府 可能关门，这可能会推迟本周关键就业数据的发布，并可能给美联储的货币政策路径蒙上阴影。 (截图来源：彭博社) 金价超过了上周二创下的峰值。白银价格一度上涨1.2%，铂金和钯金也强劲上涨，持续的市场紧俏以 及流入以贵金属为支撑的交易所交易基金(ETF)的资金支撑了涨势。 (截图来源：彭博社) 投资者将密切关注美国国会高层领导人与总统特朗普(Donald Trump)周一举行的会晤。 彭博社报道称，美国国会四位最高领袖将于当地时间周一在白宫会晤特朗普。此时，若两党无法就短期 支出法案达成一致，联邦资金将于当地时间次日(9月30日)宣告耗尽。 这将是特朗普在避免政府停摆的最后期限前首次与国会领袖会谈。参议院民主党领袖舒默(Chuck Schumer)和众议院领袖杰弗里斯(Hakeem Jeffries ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve officials have differing views on monetary policy, leading traders to reduce bets on further easing after stronger-than-expected economic data [1][2] - The potential government shutdown starting October 1 could delay the release of key economic data, including the closely watched non-farm payroll report [2][5] - The market is pricing in an approximately 80% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's meeting on October 28-29, but more weak data is needed to support the view of a cooling labor market [2][3] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose to around 4.2%, up from a five-month low of just below 4% on September 17, following a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed [3][4] - Recent reports showing a decline in initial jobless claims and robust second-quarter economic growth have led traders to slightly reduce expectations for further easing [3][4] - The market anticipates that the upcoming government data will show an increase of 50,000 non-farm jobs in September, a rebound from an average of less than 30,000 in the previous three months [3] Group 3 - Fed officials are facing conflicting risks of a slowing labor market and rising inflation, with some advocating for more rate cuts while others express concerns about inflation driven by tariffs [4] - The U.S. Treasury options market shows buyers betting that the 10-year yield will drop to 4% or lower by the end of November, while short positions in U.S. Treasuries are increasing [4] - The importance of data not affected by the government shutdown, such as the ADP private employment report, has increased, with a strong employment report potentially influencing interest rate decisions [5]