投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 前期利好兑现，煤焦持续回落 核心观点 焦炭：根据钢联统计，截至 8 月 1 日当周，独立焦化厂和钢厂焦化厂日均 焦炭产量合计 111.78 万吨，周环比基本持平；247 家钢厂铁水日均产量 240.71 万吨，周环比下降 1.52 万吨，但仍维持在 240 万吨/天的水平上 方。本周，247 家钢厂盈利率 65.37%，即接近 2/3 的钢厂处于盈利状态， 当前虽是传统施工淡季，但焦炭需求季节性走弱的幅度有限。另外，统计 局公布 7 月制造业 PMI 为 49.3%，较上月下降 0.4 个百分点，制造业景气 度有所回落。7 月 30 日，中共中央政治局会议召开，政策强预期兑现，市 场乐观情绪迎来阶段性回调。整体来看，焦炭基本面变化不大，消息面扰 动暂告一段落，市场观望情绪增加，焦炭期货短期内或维持宽幅震荡运 行，后续市场关注点预计将逐渐回归焦煤的实际供应。 焦煤：根据钢联统计，截至 8 月 1 日当周，523 家炼焦煤矿精煤日均产量 77.7 万吨，周环比持平，同比去年偏高 0.6 万吨，月末煤矿完成生产目 标后产量阶段性下降，进入 8 月后会陆续恢复。进口 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 1.23%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak. Coupled with poor market sentiment, steel prices are prone to be under pressure and run weakly. However, due to the low inventory pattern, industrial contradictions are not significant, and the downward space is limited. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil showed a weak oscillation, with a daily decline of 0.58%, trading volume decreased, and open interest increased. Currently, the optimistic sentiment has faded, and the steel market operation has returned to the industrial end. In the situation of increasing supply and demand, the fundamentals of hot-rolled coil are weakening, inventory is continuously increasing, and combined with the downward drag of raw materials, negative factors are fermenting. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure and decline weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated, with a daily decline of 0.19%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the demand for iron ore has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of iron ore is increasing while the demand is weak. In the situation of increasing supply and stable demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weakening. Coupled with poor market sentiment, it is expected that the ore price will continue the high-level oscillation and consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel [4]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - The National Development and Reform Commission will deepen the reform of factor market allocation, improve the national unified power market system, cultivate the national integrated data market, and promote the construction of a unified and open transportation market. It will also regulate the disorderly competition of enterprises, promote the capacity governance of key industries, standardize bidding and tendering, strengthen the fairness review of bid-winning results, standardize local investment promotion behaviors, and carry out the cleaning and rectification of market access barriers [6]. - From January to July 2025, the total sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 207.301 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.3%. Among them, the sales in July alone decreased by 18.2% year-on-year. The number of enterprises in multiple camps has changed. There were 5 enterprises with sales of over 10 billion yuan, 1 less than the same period last year, and 49 enterprises with sales of over 1 billion yuan [7]. - From January to July 2025, nearly a hundred anti-dumping and countervailing investigations or rulings on Chinese steel products were launched by foreign countries. The涉案 varieties included large-diameter welded pipes, color-coated sheets, stainless steel sinks, hot-rolled carbon steel pipes, wire rods, galvanized sheets, hot-rolled steel, etc. [8] Spot Market - For rebar, the Shanghai price was 3,330 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,300 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,402 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. For hot-rolled coil, the Shanghai price was 3,430 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,390 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,479 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,060 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,140 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 100 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,190 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 767 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate (wet basis) was 738 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.97 US dollars/ton, up 0.13 US dollars; the ocean freight from Brazil was 23.46 US dollars/ton, down 0.13 US dollars. The SGX swap price (current month) was 99.12 US dollars/ton, down 0.08 US dollars, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 99.05 US dollars/ton, down 1.90 US dollars [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,203 yuan/ton, with a decline of 1.23%, the highest price was 3,235 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,192 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,929,148 lots, a decrease of 801,818 lots, and the open interest was 1,760,703 lots, a decrease of 55,323 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,401 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.58%, the highest price was 3,433 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 3,388 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 787,627 lots, a decrease of 282,617 lots, and the open interest was 1,454,760 lots, an increase of 20,824 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 783.0 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.19%, the highest price was 790.5 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 776.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 261,821 lots, a decrease of 64,473 lots, and the open interest was 410,009 lots, a decrease of 9,550 lots [13]. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including national 45-port iron ore inventory, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, etc.), and steel mill production situation (including 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization, 87 independent electric furnace operating rate, etc.) [15][20][30] 后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand have weakened. The weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.90 tons, and it remained weakly stable at a low level. However, considering the good profit per ton of the variety and the return of some varieties from conversion, the low supply pattern is unlikely to continue. At the same time, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 13.17 tons, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also shrinking. Both are still at the low level in the same period in recent years. The weak demand pattern in the off-season remains unchanged, continuing to put pressure on steel prices. It is expected that steel prices will maintain a weak oscillation trend, and attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [38]. - For hot-rolled coil, both supply and demand have changed. After the completion of maintenance, plate steel mills resumed production, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 5.30 tons. The supply has increased, and there is room for further increase in the future due to good profit per ton of the variety, so the supply pressure is increasing. At the same time, the demand for hot-rolled coil has certain resilience, with the weekly apparent demand increasing by 4.76 tons. However, after the ebb of speculative demand, the high-frequency daily trading volume has declined. The relative positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remains at a high level, and the industrial contradictions have not intensified, which continues to support the demand for hot-rolled coil. However, the convergence of internal and external price differences and the recurrence of tariff disturbances have led to the fermentation of concerns about external demand, and the demand pressure remains. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure and decline weakly, and attention should be paid to overseas risks [39]. - For iron ore, the supply-demand pattern has weakened. Steel mill production is restricted, and the terminal consumption of iron ore has continued to decline. This week, the average daily hot metal output and imported ore daily consumption of sample steel mills decreased month-on-month, and the decline has expanded. The relative positive factor is that the profit situation of steel mills is good, and the sustainability of production reduction is not strong. It is expected that the demand for iron ore will have strong resilience, which will continue to support the ore price. At the same time, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline and reached a low level, but it is expected to bottom out and rebound according to the shipping schedule, mainly because the shipments of miners have continued to increase, and they are actively increasing production at high ore prices. The overseas iron ore supply is gradually increasing, and the corresponding domestic iron ore production remains weakly stable. It is expected that the overall iron ore supply will increase. It is expected that the ore price will continue the high-level oscillation and consolidation trend, and attention should be paid to the trend of finished steel [40].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizes the need to prevent blind following and chaotic competition in emerging sectors while addressing low-level, homogeneous construction in traditional sectors to avoid "involution" competition [2][3][4]. Group 1: Economic Policy and Competition - The NDRC is committed to stopping blind following and chaotic competition in emerging fields, while also preventing low-level, homogeneous construction in traditional sectors [2][4]. - The NDRC has established a mechanism for regular communication with private enterprises, addressing concerns about "involution" competition and taking measures such as revising laws and enhancing industry self-discipline [2][3]. - The NDRC aims to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government actions to optimize market competition order and prevent disorderly competition [3][4]. Group 2: Industry Insights and Challenges - The phenomenon of "blind following" in emerging sectors is attributed to multiple economic factors, including the uncertainty of technology routes and market prospects, which allows for speculative capital investments [4]. - Local governments often simplify policies to focus on "investment quantity assessments," leading to multiple similar projects in the same region, reflecting a lack of precise evaluation of industrial rules and regional capacity [4]. - The NDRC's approach aims to guide the market back to an "innovation-driven" essence, avoiding the vicious cycle of low-level repeated construction in emerging industries [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need to deepen the construction of a unified national market to optimize market competition and regulate disorderly competition among enterprises [1][2] - The construction of a unified national market is crucial for breaking down local protectionism and market barriers, ensuring smooth circulation and exchange of goods and factors across the country [2][3] - Implementing "one control and two regulations" is proposed to address severe involution in competition, including controlling new capacity and optimizing existing capacity to achieve a balance in market supply and demand [3] Group 2 - To effectively boost consumption, targeted measures should be taken for different demographic groups, as stable and reasonable growth in consumption is vital for economic stability [4][5] - Five specific strategies to promote consumption include increasing income for low-income groups, providing more leisure time for middle and high-income groups, enhancing product supply, creating suitable consumption scenarios, and reducing consumption restrictions [5][6] - Successfully implementing these strategies will significantly stimulate the internal driving force of consumption, ensuring reasonable and sustainable growth in consumption, which is fundamental for economic growth [6]

当前，全国统一大市场建设正在向更高水平、更深层次迈进，要坚持破立并举，瞄准痛点难点持续 发力，以更加有力有效、可感可及的举措推动全国统一大市场建设走深走实。 多部门近期密集发布"十四五"时期我国经济社会发展成就，不同领域的多项数据指向同一命题：全 国统一大市场建设。随着一系列政策举措精准发力，破除隐性壁垒、畅通要素流动、优化制度规则等方 面取得显著成效，全国统一大市场建设效能加速释放，超大规模市场集聚资源、扩大内需、激励创新、 推动增长的作用得到更好发挥。 加快建设全国统一大市场，是党中央从全局和战略高度作出的重大部署，是构建新发展格局的基础 支撑和内在要求。我国拥有超大规模且极具增长潜力的市场，需求优势巨大，还拥有全球最完整的产业 体系和便利的基础设施网络等供给优势。加快建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场， 促进要素资源在更大范围内顺畅流动和高效配置，有利于发挥市场规模效应和集聚效应，为推动科技创 新、产业升级和企业发展营造更优环境，让更多优质产品和服务脱颖而出。在国际环境不确定不稳定因 素增多的背景下，高效畅通的全国统一大市场，是我国经济应对外部风浪最深厚的底气。 近日召开的中央财经委员会第 ...

全国快递揽收快件量平均每天超5亿件，相当于每秒钟有近6000个快递进入寄递渠道；民营企业增加到5800多万户，比"十三五"时期末增长超过40%；市 场准入负面清单事项从151项缩减至106项，4218件妨碍全国统一市场和公平竞争的规定和做法被集中清理；2025年上半年内需对GDP增长的贡献率达 68.8%，内需特别是消费是上半年经济增长的主动力…… 加快建设全国统一大市场，是党中央从全局和战略高度作出的重大部署，是构建新发展格局的基础支撑和内在要求。我国拥有超大规模且极具增长潜力的 市场，需求优势巨大，还拥有全球最完整的产业体系和便利的基础设施网络等供给优势。加快建设高效规范、公平竞争、充分开放的全国统一大市场，促 进要素资源在更大范围内顺畅流动和高效配置，有利于发挥市场规模效应和集聚效应，为推动科技创新、产业升级和企业发展营造更优环境，让更多优质 产品和服务脱颖而出。在国际环境不确定不稳定因素增多的背景下，高效畅通的全国统一大市场，是我国经济应对外部风浪最深厚的底气。 坚持以开放促改革促发展。中国经济已经深度融入世界经济，全国统一大市场绝不是关起门来封闭运行的大市场，而是面向全球、充分开放的大市场。近 年来 ...

长期以来，个人转让上市公司限售股由证券机构代扣代缴、相应税款在证券机构所在地入库。记者了解 到，一些地方为吸引税源，违规出台了一些奖补政策，部分上市公司股东通过转移证券公司账户的方式 变换纳税地点，以达到享受相关地方违规奖补的目的。这一行为既导致国家税款流失和地方可用财力下 降，又造成地区间恶性竞争，扰乱市场秩序。 《金融时报》记者从国家税务总局了解到，限售股转让纳税地点调整税收合规管理措施运行平稳，税务 部门运用税收大数据和信息技术，从操作上实现异地申报缴税的"全国通办"，证券机构可以一次申报、 一次缴税。今年上半年，发生涉税业务的3500余家证券机构累计代扣代缴申报个人所得税超百亿元，税 款均已入库至上市公司所在地，有效防止税源的不合理跨区域转移。 "《公告》实施半年来，原来相关制度漏洞被堵住，招商引资地区'无税可返'，无法通过奖补开展不当 竞争，限售股转让中所涉及的个人所得税地方留成部分从原来被返还给个人转换为地方真正可支配财 力。"业内人士指出。 国家税务总局所得税司有关负责人表示，调整限售股转让个人所得税纳税地点，对保障地方财力、促进 资本市场健康发展等都具有积极意义。下一步，税务部门将持续跟踪政策 ...

Current Economic Situation - China's economy showed resilience in the first half of the year, with GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, stable employment, prices, and residents' income [2] - Domestic demand contributed 68.8% to economic growth, and the import-export scale reached 20 trillion yuan [2] National Market Construction - The construction of a unified national market has made positive progress, with a 18.2% year-on-year increase in cross-provincial electricity transactions in the first half of the year [3] - The proportion of inter-provincial trade sales to total sales revenue increased by 0.6 percentage points to 40.4% [3] Consumer Expansion - Social retail sales of consumer goods grew by 5% in the first half of the year, with a 0.4 percentage point increase from the first quarter [4] - Notable growth in retail sales of home appliances and communication equipment, with increases of 30.7% and 24.1% respectively, and a 40.3% rise in new energy vehicle sales [4] Electricity Supply Stability - National electricity supply remains stable, with measures in place to ensure adequate energy supply during peak summer demand [6] - The government will focus on ensuring source supply, enhancing peak capacity, and optimizing demand-side management [6] Reform Initiatives - The government aims to deepen reforms to stimulate high-quality development and address economic challenges, including promoting service consumption and digital economy [7] - Efforts will be made to unify government actions and prevent unfair competition in the market [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for better coordination between effective markets and proactive government in advancing the construction of a unified national market [1] - In terms of revitalizing existing stock, the focus will be on capacity governance in key industries, encouraging innovation and moderate competition in emerging fields while preventing blind following and chaotic market behaviors [1] - Traditional sectors will prioritize innovation-driven transformation and upgrading to avoid low-level, homogeneous, and repetitive construction, while also breaking the cycle of "involutionary competition" [1] Group 2 - The principle of moderate foresight will be upheld, avoiding excessive advancement, and ensuring the effective construction and utilization of infrastructure to maximize multiple effects [1]

新华社北京8月1日电题：保持政策连续性、稳定性常态化开展政策预研储备——国家发展改革委解读当 前经济形势 新华社记者魏玉坤、张晓洁 上半年中国经济运行态势如何？下半年宏观调控政策如何发力？针对当前经济形势和经济工作，国家发 展改革委1日举行新闻发布会，国家发展改革委有关负责人进行了分析解读。 上半年我国经济稳中有进、好于预期 国家发展改革委国民经济综合司司长周陈表示，上半年我国经济稳中有进、好于预期，高质量发展取得 新成效。 周陈表示，上半年消费有三个主要特点：一是增速加快，社会消费品零售总额累计增长5%，增速较一 季度提高0.4个百分点；二是亮点增多，限额以上家电、通讯器材零售额同比增长30.7%、24.1%，新能 源汽车销量同比增长40.3%；三是环境更优，各部门围绕落实提振消费专项行动，出台了多项重大政 策，举办形式多样的促消费活动。 主要宏观指标表现良好，经济运行彰显强大韧性。上半年，国内生产总值（GDP）同比增长5.3%，就 业、物价和居民收入总体稳定。内需对经济增长的贡献率达68.8%，进出口规模站上20万亿元台阶。 "关于下一步经济工作，7月30日召开的中央政治局会议已作出全面部署，国家发展改革 ...