Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the EU is preparing to impose tariffs on US services as a response to the US's recent tariff announcements, escalating the trade conflict into the digital services sector [1][2][4] - The EU is considering a potential tariff list that includes fees on digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenue from US tech companies [2][3] - The EU's response is partly driven by the significant trade surplus the US enjoys in services, amounting to approximately $100 billion annually, making it a more vulnerable target for retaliation [3] Group 2 - The trade negotiations between the US and EU are currently at an impasse, with both sides expressing a willingness to retaliate if necessary [4] - EU officials are actively discussing the situation in Washington, indicating that there are still considerable differences between the two parties [4] - The EU is open to accepting a 10% tariff but seeks to reduce the 25% tariff on automobiles and secure guarantees on future exemptions for pharmaceuticals and semiconductors [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the document regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, casting aluminum alloy, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate. It provides trading strategies based on market trends, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors for each metal [2][8][17]. - For each metal, the analysis includes market review (both futures and spot markets), relevant news, logical analysis of market movements, and corresponding trading strategies [2][8][17]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: Night - session of SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 77,840 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, with SHFE copper index reducing positions by 1,809 lots to 497,000 lots. In the spot market, copper prices declined in East, South, and North China, with different trends in spot premiums [2]. - **Important News**: Rumors of Powell's dismissal caused market volatility. In May 2025, global refined copper supply had a surplus of 84,200 tons. Peru lifted a two - week blockade on a major copper transport route. Antofagasta's copper production increased 11% year - on - year in H1 2025 [3]. - **Logical Analysis**: The 232 tariff is due on August 1st. LME copper inventory is increasing. The domestic smelter output will remain high in July and August. Market purchasing is mainly for immediate needs and in a wait - and - see mode [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range [14]. Alumina - **Market Review**: Alumina 2509 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 3,089 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 14,701 lots to 407,500 lots. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - **Important News**: National unified market construction was emphasized. There were spot transactions in different regions. Alumina inventory increased by 11,000 tons to 3.188 million tons this week [9][10]. - **Logical Analysis**: Alumina production capacity is stable, but output is rising. The supply - demand pattern will shift from tight balance to structural surplus in July. The import window around 3,200 yuan is the upper pressure for price rebound [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading can be conducted with high - selling and low - buying within a range. For now, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14][15]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: SHFE aluminum 2508 contract rose 25 yuan to 20,455 yuan/ton, with positions increasing by 5,825 lots to 633,800 lots. Spot prices in different regions increased [17]. - **Important News**: Chinese aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 12,000 tons. There were rumors about Powell's dismissal. The decline in housing completion area in June narrowed [17][18]. - **Logical Analysis**: Macro - events may cause overseas aluminum price fluctuations. Fundamentals have negative feedback. Aluminum consumption in the off - season may not be too weak [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [20][21]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: Casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 35 yuan to 19,845 yuan/ton, with positions decreasing by 106 lots to 9,969 lots. Spot prices were stable [23]. - **Important News**: In June 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's casting aluminum alloy (ADC12) industry increased by 14 yuan/ton compared to May, with a theoretical loss of 41 yuan/ton [23]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply is stable, but demand is weak. Aluminum alloy futures prices will mainly follow the cost and aluminum price trends [24]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price will be under pressure at high levels. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum price is between - 200 and - 1,000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the price difference between futures and spot is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options [25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: SHFE zinc 2509 rose 0.55% to 22,120 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE zinc index decreasing by 8,334 lots to 223,300 lots. Spot market transactions were mainly for immediate needs, with weak premiums [28]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory increased to 93,500 tons. Vedanta's zinc concentrate metal production in Q2 2025 increased by 7% year - on - year [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: Domestic zinc supply is increasing, and consumption is in the off - season, with inventory piling up. Zinc prices may be under pressure [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Due to macro - sentiment and capital - side influence, zinc prices may fluctuate. Long - term, short positions can be taken on price rebounds. Buy put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [31]. Lead - **Market Review**: SHFE lead 2508 fell 0.3% to 16,875 yuan/ton, with positions in the SHFE lead index increasing by 3,476 lots to 100,000 lots. Spot market transactions were not optimistic [33]. - **Important News**: As of July 17th, SMM's five - region lead ingot inventory increased to 69,000 tons. Middle - East will impose different levels of tariffs on Chinese lead - acid battery enterprises [34]. - **Logical Analysis**: Secondary lead production is in the red, and domestic primary lead smelting has maintenance in July. The lead - battery peak season is approaching, with improving consumption [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Try long positions with a small position considering secondary lead cost support and peak - season expectations. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options [38]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The main SHFE nickel contract NI2509 fell 740 yuan to 119,970 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 4,627 lots. Spot premiums showed different trends [40]. - **Important News**: In May 2025, global nickel supply had a surplus of 40,800 tons. From January to May 2025, the surplus was 165,300 tons. Philippines' nickel ore exports to Indonesia are expected to increase [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: Market concerns about US tariffs resurfaced. Refined nickel supply and demand are weak in the off - season, with stable and slightly increasing inventory. Prices will fluctuate weakly [42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will decline with fluctuations. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [43][45][46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract rose 40 yuan to 12,730 yuan/ton, with index positions decreasing by 776 lots. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48]. - **Important News**: A nickel - iron factory in East China sold nickel - iron. National stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 1.69% week - on - week [49]. - **Logical Analysis**: Stainless - steel demand is not optimistic, with high inventory pressure. The cost has increased, and prices will oscillate at a high level [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level. Wait and see for arbitrage [51][52]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: Industrial silicon futures fluctuated narrowly, closing at 8,745 yuan/ton, up 0.75%. Spot prices were stable [54][55]. - **Important News**: The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon and its derivatives [56][58]. - **Logical Analysis**: Leading manufacturers' production decreased by 20,000 tons in July. If leading manufacturers do not resume production, the supply - demand will be balanced. Prices may be strong in the short - term [59]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a short - term long - bias view. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage strategy. There is no option strategy [60]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The main polysilicon futures contract rose 7.49% to 45,700 yuan/ton. Spot prices increased [61]. - **Important News**: A photovoltaic project's component procurement bid was announced [62]. - **Logical Analysis**: Polysilicon price increases can be transmitted downstream. Market sentiment is positive, and prices may be strong in the short - term [63]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will be strong in the short - term [65]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose 1,640 yuan to 67,960 yuan/ton, with index positions increasing by 17,801 lots and Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) warehouse receipts decreasing by 416 to 10,239 tons. Spot prices were stable [66]. - **Important News**: Three Australian lithium mines have shut down. Zangge Mining's lithium - related subsidiary stopped production [67]. - **Logical Analysis**: Supply - side disturbances are frequent. Demand in July is not weak. Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term and may decline in Q4 [68]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices will oscillate at a high level in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [71].

"关税效应开始显现了！" 《今日美国报》报道截图 如果说5月2.4%的同比CPI涨幅被不少人认为尚属"温和"的话，那么6月的CPI可谓是揭去面纱露出真容。 有经济学家指出，由于多数企业在白宫宣布"对等关税"前抢先进口货物增加了库存，5月物价压力尚不明显。但随着库存减少，通胀会从6月开始升温，且一 直持续到今年下半年。 在获悉美国最新通胀数据后，多家外媒纷纷发出这一惊呼。 自上而下依次是法新社、美联社、英国广播公司的报道标题截图 根据美国劳工统计局15日发布的报告，美国6月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.7%，显著高于5月的2.4%，也高于市场预期，为2月以来最大同比涨幅。 这也应了许多专家的预测：美国的关税政策推升了物价。 路透社报道截图 就连总统的盟友也承认…… 美联储16日发布的经济状况"褐皮书"称，从5月下旬到7月初，全美各地物价均有所增长。许多企业正通过涨价或收取附加费将至少部分成本上涨转嫁给消费 者。 6月CPI数据也显示，一些容易受到关税影响的特定产品价格上涨更为明显。《纽约时报》称，这说明美国政府的高额关税已经开始给消费者的钱包带来压 力。 《纽约时报》报道截图 尽管如此，白宫仍试图淡化最新 ...

据新华社，当地时间7月16日，美国总统特朗普表示，白宫将向150多个国家/地区发出信函，警告其若 未能与美国达成更有利的贸易协议，这些国家可能面临10%至15%的关税上调，信函将说明适用的关税 税率。 特朗普补充道，所有收到通知的国家"情况都会是一样的"，这些贸易伙伴"并非主要经济体，且贸易规 模相对有限"。 金融市场对此反应相对平淡。当日收盘数据显示，纳斯达克指数微涨0.25%，标普500指数上升0.32%， 道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅为0.53%。 全球经济咨询公司BCA研究首席全球策略师贝瑞钦（Peter Berezin）在研讨会上对第一财经记者表示， 市场尚未充分计入潜在关税政策带来的负面冲击，因为当前市场并不预期这些关税会真正实施。 "股票市场并不擅长为尾部风险定价。如果某件事的发生概率只有5%到10%，市场通常会忽略；但当概 率上升到30%或40%时，市场会突然高度关注，呈现非线性反应。如果情况继续发展，比如欧洲开始报 复性关税，或者市场意识到特朗普需要这些关税来增加财政收入，且对大多数国家征收20%-25%的关 税，那么股票市场可能会出现显著下跌。"他称。 胡捷说："关税上调并不意味着谈判窗口的关闭 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The container shipping market shows that the spot freight rate is gradually reaching its peak, with some shipping companies slightly reducing the freight rate in late July. The EC market generally maintains a volatile trend. Attention should be paid to the opening price of MSK in the first week of August. The dry - bulk shipping market has ended its three - week decline, with the freight rates of large - sized ships expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates expected to be volatile and slightly stronger. The oil tanker transportation market's freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs further attention [4][24][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The spot freight rate is reaching its peak, and some shipping companies have slightly reduced the freight rate in late July. The EC market is volatile. On July 14, EC2508 closed at 2027.2 points, down 0.17% from the previous day. The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, up 7.3% week - on - week. The SCFI European line on July 11 was 2099 dollars/TEU, down 0.1% week - on - week. Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Canada, the EU, and Mexico starting from August 1 [4]. - In June, China's exports to the US were 381.7 billion dollars, down 16.1% year - on - year but with a significant month - on - month improvement. Exports to ASEAN were 581.9 billion dollars, up 16.8% year - on - year, and exports to the EU were 492.2 billion dollars, up 7.6% year - on - year [5]. Logic Analysis - Spot freight rates vary among shipping companies. The OA alliance's freight rates remain high. The demand side is in the traditional peak season from July to August, but tariff policies may affect the shipping rhythm. The supply side shows that the weekly average capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 27.77, 28.83, and 30.04 million TEU respectively. July is a period of increasing supply and demand, approaching the peak of the peak season. Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1, and additional tariffs may impact China's exports and re - export trade [6]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral trading: Volatile, pay attention to tariff and geopolitical dynamics [9]. - Arbitrage: Roll - over operation of the 10 - 12 spread [10]. Industry News - The White House economic advisor said Trump received trade agreement proposals and may impose additional tariffs if not improved. The EU extended the suspension of counter - measures against US tariffs to early August. Trump announced additional tariffs on Mexico, the EU, etc. The US and India are negotiating a trade agreement to reduce India's tariffs to below 20%. There are developments in the Israel - Palestine cease - fire negotiations [11][13][14]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index rose 198 points to 1663 points, a 13.5% increase, reaching the highest level since June 25. The Capesize ship freight index rose 440 points or about 26.4% to 2104 points, with the daily average profit increasing by 3654 dollars to 17453 dollars. The Panamax ship freight index rose 137 points or 8% to 1860 points, with the daily average profit rising by 1236 dollars to 16743 dollars. The Supramax ship freight index rose 37 points or 3.1% to 1219 points [20]. - The spot freight rates of Capesize ships' iron ore routes increased. The weekly freight rates of coal and bauxite routes of Capesize ships and coal and grain routes of Panamax ships also increased. From July 7 - 13, the global iron ore shipment volume was 2987.1 million tons, with Australian and Brazilian shipments increasing [22][23]. Logic Analysis - The international dry - bulk shipping market ended its three - week decline. The Capesize ship market's freight rates stopped falling and recovered due to increased shipping inquiries and improved demand expectations. The Panamax ship market's freight rates continued to rise due to strong coal and grain transportation demand and tight shipping capacity. The freight rates of large - sized ships are expected to stop falling and recover, and medium - sized ships' freight rates are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger [24]. Industry News - Trump announced additional tariffs on imports from Mexico, Brazil, and the EU starting from August 1. Guinea requires 50% of bauxite exports to be transported by its own ships. The coal export volume of Newcastle Port in June increased year - on - year and month - on - month. The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 Chinese ports decreased [25][26]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On July 11, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 929, down 0.21% week - on - week and 11.86% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 546, up 0.74% week - on - week and down 33.50% year - on - year. The freight rate increase is mainly driven by geopolitical conflict premiums, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs attention [28]. Industry News - Trump's dissatisfaction with Putin may lead to more sanctions on Russia, affecting oil prices. The domestic refined oil retail price may be reduced. OPEC and its allies are increasing oil production, and the demand in the third quarter is expected to be strong [30].

Group 1 - President Trump indicated that the U.S. may implement previously communicated tariff rates on Japan and is close to reaching a trade agreement with India, while a deal with Europe is also possible [1][2] - The U.S. has reached agreements with Indonesia and is finalizing a deal with Vietnam, which has alleviated market concerns about escalating trade wars, leading to a rise in major U.S. stock indices [1] - Trump announced that tariffs on all imports from Indonesia will be set at 19%, and he plans to impose tariffs of over 10% on smaller countries, potentially affecting over 150 minor trade partners [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. will maintain a 25% tariff on Japanese goods unless a trade agreement is reached, with the tariff set to take effect on August 1 [6][8] - Japan's exports have declined for the second consecutive month, raising concerns about a technical recession, with a notable 11.4% drop in exports to the U.S. [11][12] - The automotive sector is a critical point in U.S.-Japan trade negotiations, with potential tariffs posing a significant risk to Japan's economy, estimated to lose up to 13 trillion yen, which is over 2% of its GDP [12][14]

Group 1 - The EU is preparing a list of potential tariffs and export control measures against the US services sector as a retaliatory action following failed trade negotiations [2][3] - The EU Commission is compiling this list in response to President Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on EU goods starting August 1 [3] - The proposed measures will target not only US tech companies but also include additional actions beyond the existing proposal against $720 billion worth of US imports, which includes tariffs on Boeing aircraft, cars, and bourbon whiskey [3] Group 2 - Barclays economists estimate that if the average tariff rate on EU goods reaches 35%, combined with a 10% retaliatory tariff from Brussels, it could reduce Eurozone output by 0.7 percentage points [4] - This reduction could deplete much of the already limited growth in the Eurozone and may lead the European Central Bank to further lower its deposit rate from the current 2% [4] - A previous estimate from the German Economic Institute suggested that tariffs of 20% to 50% could result in economic losses exceeding €200 billion for Germany by 2028 [4]

Core Points - The agreement between the U.S. and Indonesia involves Indonesia paying a 19% tariff while the U.S. pays no tariffs [1] - Indonesia commits to purchasing $15 billion worth of U.S. energy products, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing aircraft, including many 777 models [3] - The tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Indonesia has been reduced from 32% to 19% through negotiations [5] Group 1 - Indonesia is the largest copper exporter, yet it has not received an exemption from the U.S. 50% tariff on all imported copper [3] - The agreement marks a significant achievement for Indonesia, as it is the first Southeast Asian country to reach a trade agreement with the U.S., with Vietnam facing a higher tariff of 20% [5][8] - The deal is seen as a strategic move for Indonesia to access the U.S. market while maintaining its export trade, despite the seemingly unfavorable tariff conditions [8] Group 2 - The U.S. is expected to generate significant tariff revenue, with a potential $300 billion from a minimum 10% tariff on $3 trillion in imports annually [8] - The U.S. government recently reported a rare fiscal surplus of $27 billion in June, the first since 2017, indicating a positive impact from tariff policies [8] - There has been no significant inflation resulting from the tariffs, suggesting that the U.S. may continue to implement tariffs as a regular practice without adverse economic effects [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policy under the Trump administration may lead to stagflation, impacting the economy negatively and increasing uncertainty for American consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The volatile tariff agenda, along with immigration policies and rising national debt, has increased market volatility [2]. - Some analysts warn that the U.S. economy may be heading towards stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation [2]. - A report from Apollo Global Management highlights that higher tariffs could lead to stagflationary shocks, increasing the likelihood of economic slowdown while putting upward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The Swiss Re Institute reports that the unpredictable policy changes under the current U.S. government have diminished global confidence in the U.S. as a safe haven for capital, leading to lowered growth expectations for major economies by 2025 [3]. - The report indicates that declining efficiency in global supply chains and increased domestic protectionism may result in a structural rise in average inflation in the U.S. [3]. - American households, already struggling with high living costs, are preparing for future uncertainties, whether facing recession or stagflation [3]. - Jerome Hegglin, Chief Economist at Swiss Re, states that U.S. consumers will bear the brunt of the tariff policy, as rising prices will force them to cut spending, which is crucial for U.S. economic growth [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The marginal effect of external disturbances is decreasing, and domestic autonomy in the chemical industry is significantly increasing. The supply of the domestic chemical industry is expected to gradually see positive changes, and the implementation of "anti - involution" policies in other sectors may boost the valuation of the petrochemical and chemical industry [1]. - For A - shares, from a long - term perspective, the investment value is relatively high. CSI 500 and CSI 1000 may bring higher returns due to more science and innovation policy support, while SSE 50 and SSE 300 have more defensive value in the current macro - environment [3][11]. - The global economy is expected to improve in the second half of this year, and attention should be paid to the OPEC's production increase situation for the crude oil market [2][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Main News on the Day - **International News**: The Fed's "Beige Book" shows that from late May to early July, economic activity increased slightly, with high uncertainty, and the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic [6]. - **Domestic News**: The Third China International Supply Chain Promotion Expo opened in Beijing. China will promote the digital, intelligent, and green transformation and upgrading of the global industrial chain and supply chain [7]. - **Industry News**: On July 16, the national maximum power load reached a new high, exceeding 15 billion kilowatts [8]. b. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The S&P 500 rose 0.32%, the European STOXX 50 fell 0.67%, the FTSE China A50 futures fell 0.57%, the US dollar index fell 0.35%, ICE Brent crude oil continuous fell 0.22%, and other commodities also had different changes in prices [9]. c. Morning Comments on Major Varieties - **Financial Products** - **Stock Index**: The previous trading day's stock index mainly declined. The social services sector led the rise, and the steel sector led the decline. The trading volume was 1.46 trillion yuan. The proportion of medium - and long - term funds in the capital market is expected to gradually increase, which is conducive to reducing stock market volatility [3][11]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds showed mixed performance. The yield of the 10 - year active treasury bond rose to 1.66%. The central bank's open - market operations had a net investment of 4446 billion yuan. The external environment is more complex, and the central bank will maintain a supportive monetary policy, but the "anti - involution" policy may increase the volatility of treasury bond futures prices [12]. - **Energy and Chemical Products** - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil had a volatile night session. US refined oil demand decreased compared to the same period last year, and the US crude oil inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased. OPEC predicts that the global economy will improve in the second half of the year [2][13]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.59% at night. The average operating load of domestic coal - to - olefin plants decreased, and the coastal methanol inventory increased. Methanol is short - term bullish [14][15]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins showed weak consolidation. The consumption of polyolefins entered a relative off - season, and the cost support weakened. The market focus returned to the supply - demand side, but the supply - demand repair needs time [16]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined and rebounded slightly at night. The summer maintenance reduced supply, and the glass inventory decreased slightly last week. Soda ash futures mainly declined, and its inventory increased. Both are in the inventory digestion cycle, and attention should be paid to the digestion process [4][17]. - **Rubber**: The supply of new natural rubber in domestic production areas was affected by rainfall, and the raw rubber price was supported. The overall output in overseas production areas was smooth, and the inventory in Qingdao continued to increase. The market lacks continuous positive support, and the upward space is limited [18]. - **Metals** - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, gold and silver rose and then fell, continuing to fluctuate. The short - term expectation of interest rate cuts cooled down. Although the long - term driving force for gold still exists, it is hesitant to rise. Silver is relatively strong [19]. - **Copper**: The copper price closed lower at night. The smelting output is under test, and the downstream demand is generally stable. The copper price may fluctuate within a range [21]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price closed higher at night. The supply of concentrates is expected to improve, and the zinc price may fluctuate widely in the short term [22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory increased. The market sentiment improved, and the price rebounded in the short term, but it may still be in a volatile state [23]. - **Black Metals** - **Iron Ore**: The demand for iron ore has strong resilience. The global iron ore shipment decreased recently, and the port inventory decreased rapidly. The short - term macro - expectation is strong, and the iron ore price is expected to be strong [24]. - **Steel**: The supply pressure of steel is gradually emerging, and the inventory continues to decline. The steel export is affected by tariffs and anti - dumping, but the billet export is strong. The supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the steel price is expected to be strong in the short term [25]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The production of coking coal increased last week, and the market had a positive feedback. The supply pressure still exists, and attention should be paid to the "anti - involution" policy and the Politburo meeting in July [26][27]. - **Agricultural Products** - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The USDA report was neutral to bearish, and the US soybean crop rating is good. The domestic supply is abundant, and the soybean meal is expected to fluctuate [28]. - **Oils and Fats**: The MPOB report was neutral to bearish, but the Malaysian palm oil export increased. With strong demand, the palm oil price is supported, and the overall oils and fats market is expected to fluctuate [29]. - **Shipping Index** - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC opened higher and fluctuated. The market is still gambling on the peak - season space of the European line. Attention should be paid to the announcement of the shipping company's August freight rates [30].