Core Viewpoint - The Asian manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) shows a positive trend, indicating a solid foundation for economic growth in the region, particularly in China and India, while also highlighting the resilience of supply chains and regional cooperation as key factors for continued expansion [1] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - In August, the Asian manufacturing PMI was reported at 50.9%, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, marking four consecutive months above 50% [1] - China's manufacturing PMI increased compared to the previous month, while India's PMI remained above 59% [1] - Among ASEAN countries, Indonesia and Thailand's PMIs rose above 51%, while the Philippines, Myanmar, and Vietnam maintained PMIs above 50%. Singapore's PMI was at 50%, and Malaysia's PMI fell below 50% [1] Group 2: Economic Outlook - The overall economic outlook for Asia is positive, with China's economy solidifying its growth foundation, India maintaining rapid growth, and ASEAN economies showing signs of improvement [1] - The global manufacturing PMI was reported at 49.9%, reflecting a 0.6 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating that Asia's recovery level continues to surpass that of the Americas, Europe, and Africa, as well as the global manufacturing average [1] - The expanding economic scale of Asia is positioned as a core driver for global economic growth, supported by deepening regional cooperation and enhanced supply chain resilience [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View In August, the manufacturing PMI increased slightly, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level and positive signs in economic operation. The outstanding performance of the high - tech manufacturing sector reflects the optimization of the domestic economic structure, which will also be reflected in relevant sectors of the domestic equity market. In September, the Fed's interest rate cut is almost certain, and attention should be paid to domestic macro - economic counter - cyclical adjustment policies [18]. 3. Summary by Directory New Orders and Production Both Rebound - The production index representing supply and the new order index representing demand both rebounded, but the latter remained below 50, with a smaller rebound than the production index, and the gap between them continued to widen [4]. - The new export orders rose slightly by 0.1 to 47.2, staying below the boom - bust line for 16 consecutive months [4]. - The employment index was 47.9, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for 30 consecutive months [5]. - In August, the raw material inventory index increased slightly, while the enterprise finished - product inventory index decreased slightly [5]. The Prosperity of Large, Medium, and Small Enterprises Continues to Differentiate - The manufacturing PMI of large enterprises was 50.8, up 0.5 from the previous month, indicating accelerated expansion of production and business activities, which played a major supporting role in the overall manufacturing [9]. - The PMI of medium - sized enterprises was 48.9, down 0.6 from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for 8 consecutive months [9]. - The PMI of small enterprises was 46.6, up 0.2 from the previous month, remaining below the boom - bust line for 17 consecutive months. The prosperity of small and medium - sized enterprises needs further improvement [9]. High - tech Manufacturing Performs Remarkably - Among the four industries, high - tech manufacturing was outstanding, increasing by 1.3 to 51.9 in August compared to July, reaching a new high since April this year [10]. - The equipment manufacturing and basic raw material industries both rebounded slightly, while the consumer goods industry declined slightly [10]. The Purchase Price of Raw Materials Rebounds Rapidly - The purchase price index of major raw materials and the ex - factory price index continued to rise. The purchase price of raw materials rose 1.8 to 53.3, reaching a new high since October last year. Attention should be paid to whether the PPI year - on - year and month - on - month data to be announced in mid - September will further improve [13]. The Market Expectation Index Rises Slightly - In August, the production and business activity expectation index was 53.7, rising for two consecutive months, indicating continued improvement in manufacturing production and investment expectations [14].

Group 1 - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The production index is at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [1] - The new orders index stands at 49.5%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase, with significant growth in sectors like pharmaceuticals and computer communication electronics, while textiles and wood processing remain below the critical point [1] Group 2 - The price index has been rising, with the main raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and the factory price index at 49.1%, both showing increases of 1.8 and 0.8 percentage points respectively, indicating an overall improvement in manufacturing market prices [1] - High-tech manufacturing PMI is at 51.9% and equipment manufacturing PMI is at 50.5%, both showing increases, which indicates sustained support and leading roles in the manufacturing sector [2] - The production and business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting increased confidence among manufacturing enterprises regarding future market conditions [2]

Group 1 - The UK manufacturing sector's improvement over the past three months has reversed in August, with the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) dropping from 48 in July to 47, marking 11 consecutive months of contraction [1] - Domestic and overseas market demand is declining at the fastest rate in nearly two years, as indicated by the August PMI data [1] - The total order volume for UK manufacturing in August fell below July levels and significantly below long-term averages, with export orders also declining more than in July [1] Group 2 - Input cost pressures for UK manufacturers are rising, with the input cost price index increasing from 57.0 in July to 57.7 in August due to higher minimum wage and national insurance tax rates [2] - Despite rising input costs, non-food retail prices in the UK are shrinking, making it difficult for manufacturers to pass on these costs to consumers, as non-food prices fell by 0.8% year-on-year in August [2] - The output price index for manufacturers decreased from 55.6 to 53.7, indicating that manufacturers are absorbing additional costs rather than raising prices [2] Group 3 - The UK manufacturing sector is facing a dual challenge with insufficient domestic market demand and rising costs, with no signs of relief in sight [3] - Domestic market demand is weak due to persistent inflation, exemplified by a 14% year-on-year drop in domestic car sales in July [3] - Exports to the US have also significantly declined, with a £700 million drop in goods exports in July, representing a 14.5% decrease, the lowest level since February 2022 [3] Group 4 - The UK government's tax increases have exacerbated cost pressures in the manufacturing and service sectors without alleviating fiscal pressures [4] - The outlook for UK manufacturing remains challenging due to weak demand, trade friction, and increased policy uncertainty [4] - The upcoming autumn budget is seen as a critical moment for boosting business confidence, with calls for certainty in corporate tax and support for industrial and infrastructure strategies [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LLDPE market is expected to oscillate today, with the agricultural film demand recovering but remaining weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory being neutral [4]. - The PP market is also expected to oscillate today, with new production capacity being put into operation recently and the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving improving, while the industrial inventory is neutral [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned and is expected to be introduced in September. The start - up of agricultural film enterprises has increased slightly, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has increased due to the approaching peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7250 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is -20, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.3%, which is neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 487,000 tons (-78,000), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract oscillates on the market. The demand for agricultural film recovers but is still weaker than in previous years, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PE will oscillate today [4]. - **Likely factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [6]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, exports were $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. A comprehensive reform plan for the petrochemical and refining industries is being planned and is expected to be introduced in September. There is new production capacity for PP, and downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, with the demand for pipes and plastic weaving improving. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6950 (-50), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is -15, with a premium/discount ratio of -0.2%, which is neutral [8]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 539,000 tons (-34,000), which is bearish [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [8]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the PP main contract is long, with an increase in long positions, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract oscillates on the market. There is new production capacity recently, the demand for downstream pipes and plastic weaving has improved, and the industrial inventory is neutral. It is expected that PP will oscillate today [8]. - **Likely factors**: Cost support and anti - involution policies are positive factors, while weak demand is a negative factor [9]. Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main logic**: Cost, demand, and domestic macro - policies drive the market [7][10]. - **Main risk points**: Sharp fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [7][10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.3195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [16]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [18].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in China for August is 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment compared to the previous month [1] Summary by Categories Overall PMI Performance - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] By Enterprise Size - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion above the neutral level [1] - Medium enterprises had a PMI of 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, remaining below the neutral level [1] - Small enterprises recorded a PMI of 46.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, but still below the neutral level [1] Component Indices - The production index stands at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [1] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [1] - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, still below the neutral level, showing a narrowing decline in major raw material inventories [1] - The employment index is at 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment within manufacturing [1] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating that the delivery times from raw material suppliers are continuing to improve [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1.行情复盘 - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2509 of Shanghai aluminum futures showed a fluctuating trend, ranging from around 20,580 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 20,950 yuan/ton [9] 2.宏观面 - In August, the manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing's prosperity level. Among the five sub - indices, the production index and the supplier delivery time index were above the critical point, while the new order index, raw material inventory index, and employment index were below the critical point [13][15] 3.供需情况 - As of August 28, 2025, the total domestic alumina inventory was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. In July, the monthly output of aluminum products was 216940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.3%. The monthly output of aluminum alloy was 153,600 tons, a decrease of 13,300 tons from the previous month but a year - on - year increase of 10.7% [19][23] 4.库存情况 - As of August 29, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 125,596 tons, an increase of 991 tons from the previous week. The LME aluminum inventory was 481,050 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 2.56%. As of August 28, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 567,000 tons, an increase of 0.6 tons from the previous day [28] 5.宏观面、基本面分析 - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. In July, alumina production increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The operating rate of alumina enterprises continued to rise. The import volume of bauxite increased rapidly month - on - month, approaching the high in April. The production of aluminum products decreased significantly month - on - month, and the production of aluminum alloy decreased month - on - month. The Shanghai aluminum inventory increased slightly, and the inventory level was at a low level in recent years [36] 6.后市展望 - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a fluctuating trend, with limited price fluctuations and few arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [4][37]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment compared to the previous month [1] Group 1: PMI Overview - The PMI for large enterprises is 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from last month, indicating expansion above the critical point [1] - The PMI for medium enterprises is 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points from last month, remaining below the critical point [1] - The PMI for small enterprises is 46.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still below the critical point [1] Group 2: Sub-Index Analysis - The production index is at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating accelerated production expansion in the manufacturing sector [1] - The new orders index is at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points from last month, suggesting a slight improvement in market demand [1] - The raw materials inventory index is at 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, indicating a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [1] - The employment index is at 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points from last month, reflecting a slight decline in employment sentiment within manufacturing [1] - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, indicating a continued acceleration in supplier delivery times [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating. However, some institutions have provided ratings for specific sectors: Goldman Sachs maintains an "overweight" stance on Chinese stocks, and Standard Chartered Bank maintains an "overweight" rating on Chinese stocks in its "2025 H2 Global Market Outlook" [36]. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market had a mixed performance overnight, with most contracts falling. International precious metals generally rose, while international oil prices slightly declined. The global economic and policy environment is complex, with various factors influencing different markets such as macro - policies, corporate operations, and international trade relations [3][4][5]. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - **Domestic Futures**: Most domestic futures main contracts fell. Soda ash dropped over 2%, and glass, coke, cotton, etc., dropped over 1%. Shanghai silver and caustic soda rose over 1% [3]. - **International Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures rose 1.13% to $3516.1 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 2.62% to $40.723 per ounce [4]. - **International Oil Prices**: WTI crude oil main contract fell 0.48% to $64.01 per barrel, and Brent crude oil main contract fell 0.28% to $67.48 per barrel [5]. - **London Base Metals**: All London base metals rose. LME zinc rose 1.19%, LME nickel rose 0.93%, etc. [5]. - **International Agricultural Products**: International agricultural product futures had mixed performances. US soybeans rose 0.45%, US corn rose 2.25%, etc. [7]. Important Information Macro Information - As of July 2025, there were 150 futures companies in China, with a trading volume of 10.99 billion lots and an operating income of 4.282 billion yuan in July [9]. - As of August 29, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 29.7 points, and the China Export Containerized Freight Index dropped 1.6% [9]. - The NDRC will introduce policies to promote private investment and set minimum private investment participation ratios for major projects [9]. - From August 27 - 29, Chinese and US officials held talks on Sino - US economic and trade relations [9]. - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points [10][12]. - The Fed entered a "quiet period" before its September meeting [12]. Energy and Chemical Futures - From September 1, 2025, the maximum daily opening position for non - futures company members or clients in the caustic soda 2601 contract is 10,000 lots [14]. - Last week, PVC production enterprises' capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, down 1.59% month - on - month [14]. - In June, US crude oil production reached a record high, and LNG production increased by 12,000 barrels per day [14]. Metal Futures - Tin Industry Co., Ltd. will conduct a routine shutdown for equipment maintenance, expected to last no more than 45 days, with little impact on the annual production plan [16][17]. - Last week, copper inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and aluminum inventory increased by 991 tons [18]. - The US Federal Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff measures were illegal [18]. Black - Series Futures - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.2%, down 0.16 percentage points from last week [20]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 137.6302 million tons, down 821,800 tons [20]. - Shanxi Coking Coal's subsidiary had a safety accident and stopped production, with an annual approved capacity of 4 million tons [21]. - This week, the total urban inventory was 8.8916 million tons, up 349,900 tons from last week [23]. - In August, the steel industry PMI was 49.8%, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month [23]. - Colombia banned coal exports to Israel [23]. Agricultural Product Futures - As of August 29, the self - breeding and self - raising pig farming profit was 32.24 yuan per head, and the profit from purchasing piglets was a loss of 148.41 yuan per head [25]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange revised the rules for fresh apple futures [25]. - India allocated 2.35 million tons of sugar for domestic sales in September 2025, the same as in 2024 [25]. - Indonesia set the reference price for CPO in September at $954.71 per ton, up from August [27]. - In the first half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a 8.17% year - on - year increase in sugarcane crushing volume [27]. - The ISO expects the global sugar supply shortage in 2025/2026 to narrow significantly to 231,000 tons [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 31 were 1.421486 million tons, up 10.2% from the previous month [29]. Financial Market Finance - Next week, 29 A - share stocks will face unlocking, with a total unlocking market value of 18.877 billion yuan, down 73.51% week - on - week [31]. - In H1 2025, Shanghai - listed companies' operating income was 24.68 trillion yuan, down 1.3% year - on - year, and net profit was 2.39 trillion yuan, up 1.1% [33]. - As of the end of August, the scale of Shanghai ETFs exceeded 3.7 trillion yuan, with a net inflow of over 350 billion yuan this year [33]. - As of June 30, 2025, the five A - share listed insurance companies' stock investment scale was nearly 1.8 trillion yuan, up 405.356 billion yuan from the end of 2024 [35]. - In August, A - shares continued to rise. Institutions expect the market to be volatile in September and focus on resource sectors, innovation drugs, etc. [36]. - Many foreign financial institutions are optimistic about the Chinese market. Hedge funds are net buyers of Chinese stocks [36]. - In the first eight months, the A - share market was strong, and the average return of active equity funds was 23.83% [36]. - Hesai Technology passed the Hong Kong Stock Exchange's hearing and plans to list in Hong Kong [37]. - Hefei Xinqi Microelectronics Equipment Co., Ltd. and Easy Health Group submitted IPO applications to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [37]. Industry - Since August, nearly 20 small and medium - sized banks have lowered deposit interest rates [38]. - From January to August, the sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises were 2.32705 trillion yuan, down 13.3% year - on - year [40]. - In August, the inventory warning index for Chinese auto dealers was 57.0%, up 0.8 percentage points year - on - year [40]. - In 2025, China's total box office (including overseas) exceeded 40 billion yuan [40]. - The mother - fund market cooled significantly this year, with 33 new mother - funds established [41]. - Shanghai's leading commercial health insurance companies are developing new group insurance products [41]. Overseas - Trump's global tariff policy and the lawsuit to remove Fed Governor Cook are facing the US Supreme Court's final ruling [42]. - Japan and the US are discussing a package deal including tariff reduction and a $550 billion investment plan [44]. - ECB Governing Council member Rehn said inflation risks are "downward - biased" [44]. International Stock Market - Tata Capital will launch a $2 billion IPO in September [45]. Commodity - Malaysia's palm oil exports in August were 1.421486 million tons, up 10.22% month - on - month [46]. Bond - Yuzhou Group's overseas debt restructuring became effective, involving about $6.68 billion in debt, and is expected to reduce the repayment pressure by about $3.5 billion [47]. Foreign Exchange - In the past two weeks, the RMB has strengthened against the US dollar, driven by the weakening US dollar index and narrowing Sino - US interest rate differentials [49]. - The Canadian dollar has risen 4.68% against the US dollar this year, being the worst - performing G10 currency [50].

Core Viewpoint - The economic climate in China is showing signs of recovery due to the easing of extreme weather conditions and the implementation of policies aimed at stabilizing the economy and employment [3][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment [3][6]. - The new orders index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, also up by 0.1 percentage points, while the production index has risen to 50.8%, reflecting a stable expansion in production activities [6][8]. - The prices of raw materials have increased, with the purchasing price index at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, marking three consecutive months of growth [6][7]. - Large enterprises continue to show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have shown signs of recovery with a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a narrowing decline in supply and demand [8][9]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in this sector [12]. - The service sector's business activity index has reached 50.5%, the highest point this year, with certain industries like capital market services and transportation showing strong performance [13]. - Despite some sectors like retail and real estate remaining below the critical point, the overall sentiment in the service industry is optimistic, with a business activity expectation index of 57.0% [13][14]. Economic Outlook - Experts predict that the positive factors accumulating in the market will lead to continued economic recovery in September and the fourth quarter, with stable demand and production activities in the manufacturing sector [9][14].