Group 1 - Manufacturing PMI has risen for two consecutive months, indicating a continued recovery in China's macro economy [5] - In June, the manufacturing PMI increased to 49.7%, with 11 out of 21 surveyed industries in the expansion zone, reflecting an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [6] - The new orders index returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, indicating a recovery in market demand [6] Group 2 - The price index ended a three-month decline, with the main raw material purchase price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both showing improvement [7] - Large enterprises' PMI rose to 51.2%, significantly supporting the overall manufacturing sector, while small enterprises' PMI fell to 47.3% [7] - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year, driven by policy support and stable market demand [7] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index was at 50.5%, indicating continued expansion in the service sector [10] - The service sector's business activity index was 50.1%, showing stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.0%, reflecting optimism for future growth [10] - The construction business activity index rose to 52.8%, with civil engineering construction remaining robust [11] Group 4 - Infrastructure projects are progressing rapidly, supported by special bonds for land acquisition and government investment funds [11] - The expansion of special bond allocations is expected to stimulate more infrastructure demand, contributing to stable economic growth [11]

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, showing a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a continued recovery in the manufacturing sector [1] - In June, the new orders index rose to 50.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below 50% [2] - The production index for manufacturing increased to 51%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in production activities [2] - The purchasing volume index for raw materials also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 2.6 percentage points [2] - The equipment manufacturing PMI is at 51.4%, high-tech manufacturing PMI at 50.9%, and consumer goods PMI at 50.4%, all indicating expansion [3] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for June is reported at 50.5%, a 0.2 percentage point increase, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The construction sector shows significant growth with a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, and civil engineering at 56.7%, indicating strong activity [6] - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.1%, slightly down by 0.1 percentage point, but the business activity expectation index remains high at 56% [5][6] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The overall economic climate is showing resilience, with manufacturing PMI recovering for two consecutive months, suggesting a stable economic foundation [4] - The second quarter saw fluctuations due to external factors, but the manufacturing sector is expected to maintain steady growth in the second half of the year [4] - The non-manufacturing business activity index has consistently remained above 50%, indicating stable expansion in the sector [6]

本文字数：2337，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 今年二季度，受到美国关税政策变化的影响，制造业运行短期有所波动，但我国经济展现出了较强的 韧性，在短期放缓后迅速回稳。 国家统计局6月30日发布的6月份制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.7%，比上月上升0.2个百分点， 连续两个月回升，制造业景气水平继续改善。非制造业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.2个百 分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群表示，6月份PMI指数小幅回升，表明一系列增量政策的效 果继续显现。订单类指数回升反映扩大内需政策效果有所显现；生产指数、采购量指数上升反映企业 生产经营活动有回暖趋势。同时应注意到PMI指数仍处荣枯线下，生产经营活动预期指数仍在下降， 反映需求不足的企业占比仍在扩大，市场引导的需求收缩对制造业生产投资的制约仍然突出。 2025.06. 30 张立群强调，当前宏观经济政策逆周期调节与市场引导的需求收缩正处相互角力的关键阶段，必须坚 持不懈持续加大扩内需各项政策力度，特别要显著加强政府公共产品投资力度，扩大投资规模，有效 有力带动制造业企业订单显著增加，带动制造业生产投资持续活跃。 产需指 ...

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI index in June shows a slight recovery, indicating the effectiveness of a series of incremental policies, despite ongoing challenges in demand and production activities [1][4][11]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking two consecutive months of improvement [1]. - The new orders index has returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, increasing by 0.4 percentage points after two months below 50% [4]. - The production index stands at 51%, reflecting stable expansion in production activities, with a 0.3 percentage point increase from last month [5]. - The procurement volume index has also returned to the expansion zone at 50.2%, up 2.6 percentage points [5]. - Large enterprises show a PMI of 51.2%, indicating accelerated expansion, while medium and small enterprises remain below the critical point at 48.6% and 47.3%, respectively [7]. Price Trends - In June, both the purchasing price index and the factory price index have stabilized, with the purchasing price index at 48.4% and the factory price index at 46.2%, both up 1.5 percentage points from the previous month [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.5%, reflecting continued expansion, with a 0.2 percentage point increase [11]. - The construction industry shows a business activity index of 52.8%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in construction activities [12]. Future Outlook - The manufacturing sector is expected to maintain a steady growth trend in the second half of the year, supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at boosting domestic demand and stabilizing external trade [8].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June is reported at 49.7%, indicating a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month, suggesting continued improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic conditions [1] Group 1 - The manufacturing PMI has risen to 49.7% in June, reflecting a slight recovery in manufacturing activity [1] - The increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month indicates a positive trend in the manufacturing sector [1]

Group 1 - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that it has remained below 50% for three consecutive months, suggesting a contraction in the manufacturing sector [1] - In Europe, the manufacturing PMI is at 48.7%, up 0.3 percentage points from last month, marking a slow recovery trend over five months, although the recovery remains weak with the index hovering around 48% [1] - The manufacturing PMI for the Americas is reported at 48.4%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating continued contraction in the region's manufacturing sector [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for Asia stands at 50.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from last month, indicating a return to expansion despite facing challenges such as U.S. tariffs [1] - The manufacturing PMI for Africa is reported at 48.7%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a weakening recovery momentum in the region [1] - Analysts suggest that U.S. tariffs continue to disrupt the global economy, increasing uncertainty and limiting long-term planning for businesses, which may weaken the global economic recovery capacity in the short term [2]

Group 1 - The uncertainty of US tariff policies continues to erode external demand for several Asian countries, leading to significant pressure on their manufacturing sectors [1] - The S&P Global reported that Vietnam's manufacturing PMI fell below 50 for the second consecutive month, with new export orders contracting for the seventh month in a row [1][2] - Indonesia's new orders saw the largest decline since August 2021, while South Korea's manufacturing output experienced its most significant drop in nearly three years [1][2] Group 2 - The ASEAN manufacturing PMI rose slightly from 48.7 in April to 49.2 in May 2025, but remains below the neutral level of 50, indicating a lack of optimism among manufacturers regarding new orders [2] - Countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore have PMIs below 50, indicating ongoing contraction in their manufacturing activities [2][3] - The Philippines experienced nearly stagnant manufacturing growth in May, primarily due to a decrease in overseas orders and significant job losses [3] Group 3 - Thailand's manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 in April to 51.2 in May, marking its first expansion since February, with new orders increasing for the first time since December [3] - The manufacturing sectors in Japan and South Korea are also struggling, with Japan's PMI at 49.4 and South Korea's PMI remaining below the neutral level for four consecutive months [3][4] Group 4 - Some countries are heavily reliant on high export profits to the US, lacking preparedness for crises and alternative markets [4] - Input costs are rising due to high energy and raw material prices, with many companies unable to pass these costs onto consumers, squeezing profit margins [4] - The root causes of the manufacturing pressure in Asian countries extend beyond US tariff policies, including weak global demand and inflationary pressures in the US and Europe [4][5] Group 5 - Despite the manufacturing downturn, the Asia-Pacific stock markets have rebounded, with the KOSPI and Jakarta Composite Index entering technical bull markets [2][5] - From April 9 to June 5, significant gains were recorded in various indices, including a 22.6% increase in the KOSPI and a 22.7% increase in the Ho Chi Minh Index [5][6] - The strong performance of the stock markets is attributed to improved expectations for US interest rate cuts and a shift in capital allocation towards emerging markets [6]

澳新银行研究部称："美国贸易官员目前正在评估美国铜进口对当地产业的影响，未来几周将有报告出 炉。" 美元指数在盘中稍早触及的六周低点附近徘徊。 据证券时报网报道，6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个 百分点。 其他金属方面，LME三个月期铝跌0.89%，至每吨2,444美元；三个月期锌跌0.44%，至2,686美元；三个 月期铅跌0.58%，至1,969.5美元；三个月期镍跌0.98%，至15,385美元。三个月期锡下跌0.52%，至 30,550美元。 SHMET 网讯： 伦敦金属交易所(LME)期铜下跌，因市场担心美国可能对铜加征关税，不过美元走软限制跌势。 北京时间16:47，LME三个月期铜下跌0.69%，至每吨9,550美元。 上海期货交易所主力期铜合约下跌0.13%，至每吨77,650元。 据央视新闻报道，当地时间5月30日，美国总统特朗普在宾夕法尼亚州举行的一场集会上表示，将把进 口钢铁的关税从25%提高至50%。随后，特朗普在社交媒体平台上发文表示，该决定从6月4日起生效。 这再次引发市场对铜可能被征收关税的担忧。 沪铝报每吨19,860元，下 ...

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector - The US manufacturing PMI has contracted for the third consecutive month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to increased economic uncertainty from trade policies [2][3] - In May 2025, all categories of manufacturing output, new orders, employment, and unfilled orders decreased, although the rate of decline slowed compared to the previous month [2] - The export sales decline has significantly widened, and the inventory index fell into contraction territory due to companies preemptively purchasing in April out of tariff policy concerns [2] Group 2: Trade Policies and Economic Impact - Trump's announcement to double tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from 25% to 50% has escalated tensions between the US and EU, contributing to global economic uncertainty [5] - The ISM reported that the supply delivery index rose to 56.1, indicating supply chain tensions caused by tariffs rather than strong economic demand [4] - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and disappointing economic data has pressured asset prices, leading to a decline in the US dollar index [5] Group 3: Bond Market and Global Implications - The yield on US 30-year Treasury bonds surged above 5.0%, influenced by poor economic data and concerns over increased government debt issuance [7] - Rising long-term bond yields could lead to higher mortgage rates, impacting household affordability and potentially dragging down overall economic performance [7][8] - If a weak emerging market defaults due to rising debt costs, it could trigger a domino effect, destabilizing global financial markets and hindering international trade and investment [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - In light of the accumulating risks in the stock and bond markets, some investors, like Buffett, have shifted their portfolios to hold more cash and short-term bonds to mitigate potential losses [11]

据财新：6月3日公布的5月财新中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）录得48.3，较4月下降2.1个百分点， 2024年10月来首次跌至临界点以下。 ...