Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for zinc is short - term shock [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The zinc market shows a short - term shock trend, with specific price, volume, inventory and other data changes reflecting the current market situation [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Contents Zinc Market Data - The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,480 yuan/ton, down 0.53%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 2,811.5 dollars/ton, down 1.28% [1] - The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 78,030 lots, a decrease of 315; the trading volume of LME zinc was 6,970 lots, a decrease of 1,594 [1] - The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 80,798 lots, a decrease of 5,188; the open interest of LME zinc was 193,713 lots, a decrease of 588 [1] - The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was - 50 yuan/ton, an increase of 5; the LME CASH - 3M premium was - 1.5 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.26 [1] - The SHFE zinc futures inventory was 17,097 tons, an increase of 905; the LME zinc inventory was 77,450 tons, a decrease of 1,025 [1] News - About 42% of economists expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in October, and another one - third expect it to take action in January next year due to inflation control needs and the spill - over effect on US long - term bonds [1] - The throughput of the Port of Los Angeles in July reached a record high, with more than 1 million TEUs, as traders rushed to ship goods before Trump's tariffs took effect [1] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [1][3]

Core Insights - The report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicates a significant rise in wholesale prices in July, driven by soaring profit margins, signaling a renewed threat of inflation to the U.S. economy [1][3] Group 1: Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a month-over-month increase of 0.9%, far exceeding the market expectation of 0.2%, marking the largest monthly increase since June 2022 [3] - Year-over-year, the PPI rose by 3.3%, the highest growth since February, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2% [3] Group 2: Service Inflation and Contributing Factors - Service inflation was identified as the primary driver of the overall PPI increase, with service prices rising by 1.1% in July, the largest increase since March 2022 [4] - The rise in trade service profit margins, which increased by 2%, has been linked to the ongoing impact of tariffs implemented during the Trump administration, as companies have passed some of the increased import costs onto service prices [4] - Wholesale prices for machinery and equipment rose by 3.8% in July, contributing to 30% of the service price increase, indicating significant cost pressures in the machinery and equipment sector [4] Group 3: Corporate Pricing Strategies and Economic Implications - Despite weak demand in the first half of the year, companies have adjusted their pricing strategies to offset increased costs from tariffs, further fueling inflation [5] - The extent to which companies pass tariff costs onto consumers will be crucial in determining future interest rate trends, with potential implications for inflationary pressures and consumer price levels [5] - The Federal Reserve may be compelled to adopt more aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation, which could simultaneously suppress economic growth and increase financing costs for businesses [5] Group 4: Global Market Impact - The unusual fluctuations in U.S. wholesale prices are expected to have a ripple effect on global markets, as the U.S. economy's policies and inflation trends influence financial markets worldwide [6] - Other central banks may closely monitor U.S. inflation dynamics and adjust their monetary policies accordingly, while global investors may reassess asset allocations in response to potential market volatility [6]

Group 1 - Japan's economy showed unexpected resilience in Q2, with GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.0%, significantly above economists' expectations of 0.4% [1][2] - The first quarter's GDP was revised from a contraction to a growth of 0.6% [1] - Year-on-year GDP growth for Q2 was 1.2%, down from 1.8% in Q1 [1] Group 2 - Domestic demand was the main driver of the strong performance, with corporate investment rising by 1.3%, exceeding the expected 0.7% [4] - Private consumption, which accounts for nearly 60% of the economy, increased by 0.2%, supported by robust wage growth from this year's salary negotiations [4] Group 3 - Net exports contributed 0.3 percentage points to economic growth, with actual export values increasing by 2% despite higher tariff barriers [5] - Inbound tourism also bolstered net exports, with foreign tourist spending in Japan rising by 18% [5] Group 4 - The strong GDP data supports the Bank of Japan's path towards policy normalization, with expectations of potential interest rate hikes in the near future [6] - Approximately 42% of economists anticipate action from the Bank of Japan in October, despite expectations to maintain rates in the upcoming September meeting [6]

然而值得注意的是，贝森特的言论其实与植田和男的最新公开言论存在不小的出入。 近日，植田和男才刚刚驳斥了日本央行加息过慢且落后于高通胀的观点，并表示，日本央行将继续观察 经济走向，如果通胀继续与日本央行的预期相符，日本央行才会加息。 贝森特意在削弱美元？ 实际上，今年4月，贝森特也曾对日本央行的加息举动进行过肯定。他在当时表示，由于日本国内经济 数据走强，"日本央行正在加息，一切都很顺理成章。" 8月14日，美东时间周三，美国财政部长贝森特（Scott Bessent）在接受采访时，不仅大谈美联储9月降 息的前景，还对日本央行的货币政策路径发表了看法。 日本央行已经落后了？ 他表示，日本央行在管理通胀方面落后于曲线，可能很快就会提高利率。 贝森特在谈及美国国债收益率上升情况时表示，日本和德国的长期国债收益率上升支撑了美国的国债收 益率，这两个国家都是美国国债的主要持有国。 "日本存在通胀问题，"贝森特谈到，他已经与日本央行行长植田和男进行过讨论，"（日本央行）已经 落后于曲线，所以他们将会加息，而且他们必须控制住通胀问题。" 至少自2022年以来，日本的食品价格居高不下，同时工资增长强劲，使日本的潜在通胀率远高 ...

Core Viewpoint - The comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding the Bank of Japan's policies may lead to an earlier-than-expected interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan [1] Group 1: Economic Policy - U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen indicated that the Bank of Japan is "behind" in addressing inflation risks and is likely to raise interest rates again [1] - There is a growing call from key members of Japan's ruling party and some members of the Bank of Japan's policy committee for an early interest rate hike [1] Group 2: Market Predictions - Totan Research/Totan ICAP currently predicts a 30% probability of a rate hike in October, 22% in December, and another 22% in January 2026 [1]

日本央行发言人周四称，贝森特与植田和男会在国际会议上定期交换意见，但无法评论这些交流的内容 或时间。 彭博对观察日本央行经济学家的最新调查显示，约42%受访者预计日本将在10月加息，三分之一预计加 息时点在明年1月。市场普遍认为，日本央行在9月19日的下一次政策会议上将维持现状。 美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特罕见批评外国央行政策，称日本央行在应对通胀问题上行动滞后。 贝森特周三接受采访时表示，"他们落在了曲线后面，"并强调这是个人观点，且已与日本央行行长植田 和男讨论过日本通胀问题。他补充道："因此他们将不得不加息，必须控制住通胀问题。" 贝森特发表上述言论之际，日本央行的政策利率在主要经济体中仍处于最低水平之一，而该国核心物价 指数已连续三年以上维持在央行2%目标水平或之上。上月日本央行决定维持利率不变后，植田和男释 放了偏宽松信号，未承诺下一次加息时间节点。 财政部长表态后，日元对美元汇率周四在东京交易时段走高，日本10年期国债收益率也小幅上升。 第一生命经济研究所执行董事、前日本央行官员Hideo Kumano表示，"贝森特可能试图通过评论美日货 币政策来削弱美元"。他指出，对他国政策指手画脚"打破了常规 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen criticizes the Bank of Japan for being "clearly behind the curve" in addressing inflation and advocates for interest rate hikes to control prices [1][2] - Japan's core inflation has remained at or above the central bank's 2% target for over three years, yet its policy interest rate is still the lowest among major economies [1][2] - Market expectations are shifting due to persistent inflation pressures, with approximately 42% of economists surveyed by Bloomberg anticipating a rate hike from the Bank of Japan in October [2] Group 2 - Yellen highlights the "clear spillover effects" from rising yields in Japan and Germany, stating that U.S. 30-year Treasury bonds are being dragged down by these trends [3] - Japanese long-term government bond yields have surged to multi-decade highs, with some auctions experiencing the weakest demand in years [3] - In contrast, U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have decreased this year, indicating market confidence in the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve, with inflation expectations well-anchored [3]

Core Viewpoint - Mizuho's report indicates that the end of the year is considered the earliest opportunity for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates, with a hawkish stance on inflation and economic conditions being highlighted [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The BOJ's July monetary policy meeting summary released on August 8 presents a hawkish view on inflation, noting that both actual inflation and inflation expectations are rising, alongside increases in corporate profits and wages [1] - Some board members advocate for an early rate hike, emphasizing the need for the BOJ to manage risks and not miss the opportunity to raise rates [1] - However, there are opinions suggesting that the BOJ intends to take time to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating that a decision on policy changes may not be imminent [1][2] Group 2: Assessment Timeline - It is suggested that at least two to three months are needed to evaluate the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which could delay any potential rate hike until December at the earliest [2] - The statement regarding the assessment period and the earliest exit from the current stance implies a lower likelihood of rate hikes in September or October, contrasting with market expectations of a 40% probability for a rate hike in October [2] Group 3: Inflation Focus - Multiple opinions suggest that the BOJ should shift its focus from core inflation to actual inflation, recognizing that actual inflation is becoming increasingly important as core inflation approaches 2% [3] - Despite acknowledging that inflation is running above 2%, there are concerns that focusing too much on actual inflation could hinder the possibility of a rate hike due to expected declines in inflation rates [3] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Context - Mizuho notes that U.S. employment data indicates a softening labor market, which may support the Federal Reserve's move towards rate cuts, with a probability of over 90% for a rate cut in September [4] - Nomura Securities has also adjusted its expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September, citing signs of slowing inflation and initial cracks in the labor market [4]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The increase in import tariffs has pushed up commodity prices, leading to a rise in the core CPI annual rate of consumer - end inflation in the US in July. However, due to the possible significant downward revision of the newly - added non - farm payrolls in the US in July or far below expectations, the US economy shows "stagflation" characteristics, leaving room for the Fed to cut interest rates in September, October, and December. Global central banks' continuous gold purchases may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors mainly lay out long positions when prices fall [1]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Market Data - **Gold**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 783.68 yuan/gram, down 3.44 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai gold T + D was 773.17 yuan/gram, down 2.69 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX gold futures active contract was 3393.70 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London gold spot was 3343.30 dollars/ounce, down 36.75 dollars from the previous day [1]. - **Silver**: On August 12, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai silver futures was 9163 yuan/ten - gram, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of spot Shanghai silver T + D was 9173 yuan/ten - gram, up 15 yuan from the previous day. The closing price of COMEX silver futures active contract was 37.65 dollars/ounce, with no change from the previous day; the price of London silver spot was 37.76 dollars/ounce, down 0.07 dollars from the previous day [1]. - **Other Commodities and Financial Indicators**: INE crude oil was 495.20 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent crude oil was 66.71 dollars/barrel, NYMEX crude oil was 64 dollars/barrel. The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.22%, the US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.91%, and the US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.38%. The US dollar index was 98.7427 [1]. 3.2 Important Information - **Gold**: A person named Bessent hinted that the Fed should be open to a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September and hoped to take office before the next month's interest - rate meeting. The US CPI in July increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than expected, while the core CPI growth rate reached the highest since February. The US tariff revenue in July was 28 billion dollars, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 273%. The budget deficit in the ten months to July was 1.63 trillion dollars. After deducting calendar differences, the budget deficit in July was 291 billion dollars, a 10% increase from the same period last year [1]. - **Macroeconomic Policies of Different Countries**: The European Central Bank paused interest - rate cuts in July, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2%. The UK central bank cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start to reduce the quarterly government bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026 [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy Investors are advised to mainly lay out long positions when prices fall. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/ten - gram [1].

Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra expands the candidate pool for the Federal Reserve Chair, including former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former Bush advisor Mark Sobel [1] - Fed Governor Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year, citing core personal consumption expenditures inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - UK Chief Economist Hugh Pill warns that while inflation pressures may ease, changes in long-term pricing and wage-setting behavior could delay future rate cuts [1] Group 2 - July electric vehicle sales reached a record high, accounting for 9.1% of total passenger vehicle sales, with used electric vehicle sales hitting 36,700 units [1] - The Bank of Japan's July meeting minutes indicate a consensus on future rate hikes, but concerns about the impact of US tariffs have lowered short-term rate hike expectations [1] - Japan's Economic Revitalization Minister Akizawa reveals that the US will modify a presidential order to provide tax relief measures for Japan, refunding overpaid tariffs and reducing tariffs on cars and parts [1]