周三，美国参议院以势均力敌的投票结果否决了两党共同提出的阻止特朗普关税政策的议案。就在几个 小时前，美国联邦政府报告称，由于特朗普关税政策引发的混乱，美国经济三年来首次出现收缩。 有三名共和党人加入民主党人行列，支持终止特朗普宣布的国家紧急状态，此前特朗普以该紧急状态为 依据，对美国贸易伙伴实施10%的全球关税，并对包括欧盟在内的57个贸易伙伴实施更高的对等关税。 但49票对49票的投票结果未能达到通过该决议并将其提交至众议院所需的简单多数票。 共和党的支持力度相比几周前有所下降，当时四名参议院共和党人与民主党人一起通过了一项类似的法 案，寻求终止对加拿大的新关税。目前共和党在参议院中以53票对47票占据多数。 提出该议案的俄勒冈州民主党参议员罗恩・怀登（Ron Wyden）在投票前表示："美国参议院不能在这 种关税疯狂行为中袖手旁观。国会有权设定关税并监管全球贸易。" 美国商务部周三早些时候报告称，由于企业为避免关税带来的更高成本而大量进口商品，在2025年前三 个月，美国经济收缩0.3%，这是自2022年第一季度以来的首次负增长。 这份经济报告首次切实证明了特朗普关税政策对经济的影响。在此之前，美国股市和 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. private sector added only 62,000 jobs this month, marking the smallest increase since July 2024 and significantly below the expected 115,000 jobs [1][3] - Wage growth has also slowed, with salaries for employees staying in their current positions rising by 4.5% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from March, while salaries for job switchers increased to 6.9%, up 0.2 percentage points [3] - The leisure and hospitality sector saw the largest job increase, adding 27,000 positions, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (21,000), financial activities (20,000), and construction (16,000) [3] Group 2 - The report comes amid increasing uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump's tariff policies on corporate hiring plans and the broader economic situation [3] - The ADP data serves as a leading indicator for the Labor Department's non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show a job growth of 135,000, with the unemployment rate remaining unchanged at 4.2% [3]

Group 1 - The old market adage "Sell in May and go away" is influencing the current rebound in the US stock market, with historical data supporting this trend [1] - A fund tracking the S&P 500 index since 1993 shows a cumulative return of 171% from May to October, compared to 731% from November to April, indicating a significant seasonal performance difference [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded 12% from its low this month but is still down 5.5% year-to-date, suggesting caution in chasing gains [1] Group 2 - Over the past 74 years, the S&P 500 index has only achieved a cumulative return of 35% from May to October, while the return from November to April has been as high as 11,657% [2] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is expected to be a key focus for the market, as it may influence investor sentiment and market direction [2] - Some indicators have signaled a buying opportunity, including a drop in investor confidence and the S&P 500 index recovering above 5,500 points, indicating a potential shift towards buying on dips [2] Group 3 - Historical data suggests that in years where the stock market has a poor start, the S&P 500 index tends to perform worse from May to October, with an average decline of 0.4% in such years [3] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF has seen a year-to-date decline of 5.4%, reflecting the cautious market sentiment [3] - The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) remains elevated around 25, above the long-term average of approximately 20, indicating ongoing market volatility [3] Group 4 - The potential expiration of tariff suspensions by Trump in July could serve as a source of volatility, reinforcing the "Sell in May" trend and highlighting the impact of global trade dynamics on market movements [5] - Market analysts suggest that long-term holding strategies may be wiser for ordinary investors compared to attempting to time the market, with a buy-and-hold strategy since 1993 yielding a return of 2,100% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF [5]

智通财经APP注意到，至少有一位大额期权交易员押注1800万美元，赌美联储今年不会降息。 期货和期权市场的投资者整体上仍预计美联储将在7月会议上降息，并认为今年至少还会再降两次。但过去几周，一个重大头寸正在期权合约中累积——如 果美联储在2025年之前维持利率不变或加息，该合约将获利。 周二公布的芝加哥商品交易所(CME)数据显示，本周该交易的未平仓合约(即新增风险敞口)激增。这一赌注与有担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)合约挂钩，该合约 追踪美联储年底前的政策路径。 这一押注在当下显得尤为另类，因为投资者正评估特朗普关税政策对经济和通胀的潜在影响。许多华尔街人士加大押注，认为若关税导致经济放缓，美联储 将不得不降息。而近期针对12月合约的交易却淡化了这一预期。 与此同时，摩根大通客户调查显示，在特朗普宣布关税引发债市抛售后，投资者正重返国债现货市场，过去一周多头和空头头寸均小幅增加。 以下是利率市场最新定位指标的概述： 摩根大通财务客户调查 截至 4 月 28 日当周，多头和空头仓位均上涨 2 个百分点，而中性仓位则在当周下降了 4 个百分点。 知情人士透露，仅自上周四以来，一名或最多几名交易员就建立了8万份合约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dongfang Precision (东方精工), reported a stock price of 12.38 yuan as of April 29, 2025, with a slight increase of 0.24% and a trading volume of 947,500 shares, amounting to a total transaction value of 1.174 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Company Operations - The company focuses on high-end intelligent equipment manufacturing, with its main business covering intelligent packaging equipment and water power equipment [3]. - The company’s gasoline engine products are primarily used in small terminal machinery for agriculture and gardening, and gasoline generator sets can serve as backup power sources [2]. Group 2: Financial Information - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.3 yuan per 10 shares (including tax) for the first quarter of 2025, pending approval from the shareholders' meeting [4]. - The company holds approximately 216 million shares of restricted stock, mainly from executives and the remaining unlifted shares from the 2022 stock incentive plan [5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - On April 29, 2025, retail investors saw a net inflow of 25.124 million yuan, while institutional and speculative funds experienced net outflows of 9.788 million yuan and 15.336 million yuan, respectively [6]. - The company’s overseas revenue is primarily generated from local subsidiaries in Europe and North America, indicating that the impact of U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports is minimal for the company [5].

据了解，亚马逊将很快"在产品标价旁明确显示关税所占金额比例"。这一举措或将直接向美国消费者 展示特朗普关税政策如何推高商品价格，但这有可能损害该公司及其创始人杰夫·贝佐斯与特朗普政 府建立的任何良好关系。 当地时间4月29日，央视记者获悉，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特朗普关税政策带来的商品额外成本 后，特朗普政府当日对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称此举是"敌对的政治行为"。 ...

金十数据4月29日讯，在亚马逊宣布将开始标注特朗普关税政策带来的商品额外成本后，特朗普政府当 日对亚马逊发起猛烈抨击。美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特称此举是"敌对的政治行为"。据了解，亚马逊将很 快"在产品标价旁明确显示关税所占金额比例"。这一举措或将直接向美国消费者展示特朗普关税政策如 何推高商品价格，但这有可能损害该公司及其创始人杰夫·贝佐斯与特朗普政府建立的任何良好关系。 白宫抨击亚马逊展示关税价格 称其为"敌对政治行为" ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of Trump's tariff policies on the global economy, particularly focusing on the United States and its trade relations with China. Core Points and Arguments - **Impact of Tariff Policies**: Trump's tariff policies pose a significant threat to the global economy, leading the IMF to downgrade global growth forecasts, particularly affecting small and medium-sized enterprises with limited liquidity, which could result in a weakened job market [1][2][4] - **Trust in the Dollar System**: The tariff policies have diminished trust in the dollar system, with concerns that they may lead to a downgrade of the U.S. credit rating and an increase in U.S. Treasury yields [1][2] - **Legal Challenges**: There are legal concerns regarding the unilateral imposition of tariffs without Congressional approval, raising questions about the legitimacy of using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as a legal basis [3] - **Global Economic Rebalancing**: The IMF and IIF meetings highlighted the need for global economic rebalancing, emphasizing multilateral cooperation to address inequality and trade protectionism, alongside discussions on monetary policy coordination and structural reforms [5] - **Critique of Global Institutions**: Bessenet criticized the IMF and World Bank for failing to effectively coordinate global economic imbalances, suggesting a need for reform to refocus on their core responsibilities [6] - **Recommendations for U.S. and China**: Bessenet proposed that the U.S. should reduce consumption and increase manufacturing investment, while China should promote consumption and reduce excess supply to achieve economic rebalancing [7] - **Opposition to Recommendations**: Critics argue that Bessenet's suggestions overlook the U.S. fiscal deficit issue, asserting that without addressing this, tariffs alone will not resolve the underlying problems [8] - **Trade Negotiation Dynamics**: Both the U.S. and China perceive themselves as having the upper hand in tariff negotiations, leading to a lack of trust and willingness to compromise, which complicates trade discussions [10][11] - **Supply Chain and National Security**: Current tariff policies are accelerating corporate relocations and are linked to national security concerns, emphasizing the need for key industries to return to the U.S. [13] - **Monetary Policy Challenges**: The Federal Reserve faces significant challenges due to potential threats to its independence and the need to respond to economic data changes, with discussions on possible interest rate cuts if economic conditions worsen [14][18] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **European Economic Positioning**: The tariff situation may inadvertently position Europe as a potential beneficiary, as it accelerates policy initiatives and could lead to closer ties with both the U.S. and China [16][20] - **Long-term Trade War Dynamics**: The ongoing trade war is expected to have long-lasting implications, with both sides believing they can win, which increases the risk of sustained conflict [9][12]

铜产业链周度报告 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 进口铜精矿现货亏损扩大至3400元/吨左右 COMEX和LME铜价价差回升至1400美元上方 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2019-01 2019-05 2019-09 2020-01 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 2021-09 2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 元/吨 铜精矿现货冶炼盈亏 现货TC（右轴） 美元/吨 -500 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2022-03 2022-05 2022-07 2022-09 2022-11 2023-01 2023-03 2023-05 2023-07 2023-09 2023-11 2024-01 2024-03 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2 ...

Group 1 - JPMorgan Asset Management believes that U.S. Treasuries have greater upside potential compared to European bonds due to traders underestimating the extent of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve relative to the European Central Bank [1] - Myles Bradshaw, the global head of comprehensive strategy at JPMorgan, anticipates that the Federal Reserve will eventually need to implement larger rate cuts after maintaining policy for a longer period [1] - Concerns over Trump's tariff policies have led to a sell-off in U.S. government bonds, resulting in rising yields, but some global investors, including PIMCO, are beginning to see the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries [1] Group 2 - The current market expects the European Central Bank to lower deposit rates to 1.5% with three additional rate cuts this year, while traders anticipate at least three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve down to 3.75% [2] - Recent comments from Trump regarding trade negotiations with China and his softened stance towards Fed Chairman Powell have eased market tensions, leading to a significant drop in long-term U.S. Treasury yields [2] - The fundamental drivers for future market movements will be economic growth and inflation, which will determine the next steps [2]