Group 1 - The Federal Reserve may begin to lower interest rates in the second half of 2025 if tariffs on trade partners are reduced to around 10% [1] - The recent tax reform bill proposed by the Trump administration has raised concerns about the fiscal outlook of the U.S., leading to a sell-off in long-term U.S. Treasury bonds [2] - The S&P 500 index has shown volatility after a significant sell-off, with major tech companies like Google rebounding [3] Group 2 - Market participants are worried that the tax reform bill, despite passing the House, will further increase the already growing fiscal deficit [6] - Uncertainty surrounding trade policies and fiscal outlook has led to renewed market volatility, with high bond yields becoming a focal point [6] - Despite rising price pressures, U.S. business activity and output expectations have improved, although existing home sales have unexpectedly declined [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals sector is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Insights - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown overall profit growth in 2024 and Q1 2025, with significant performance differentiation among sub-sectors. The gold and copper-aluminum sectors benefited from rising metal prices, while the energy metals sector experienced a substantial profit decline [5][6] - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector achieved a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.73%, and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan, up 2.61% year-on-year. The gross margin was 11.46%, up 0.34 percentage points, while the net margin decreased by 0.12 percentage points to 4.04% [11][18] Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Non-Ferrous Metals Sector Performance - In 2024, the non-ferrous metals sector's revenue and profit increased year-on-year, with a revenue of 3.64 trillion yuan and a net profit of 147.13 billion yuan [11] - The gross margin improved to 11.46%, while the net margin slightly decreased to 4.04% [11] 2. Price Changes in 2024 and Q1 2025 - Gold prices saw significant increases, with an average price of 560.8 yuan/gram in 2024, up 24.4% year-on-year, and 673.5 yuan/gram in Q1 2025, up 37.2% year-on-year [24][28] - Industrial metals generally increased in price, with copper averaging 75,000 yuan/ton in 2024, up 10.5% year-on-year, and 77,000 yuan/ton in Q1 2025, up 11.5% year-on-year [28] - Energy metals prices fell significantly due to oversupply, with lithium carbonate averaging 91,000 yuan/ton in 2024, down 65% year-on-year [24][28] 3. Sector and Sub-Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.2% in 2024 and 12.0% in Q1 2025, ranking 15th and 1st among the Shenwan sectors, respectively [29] - The gold sector saw a profit increase of 29% year-on-year in 2024, while the lithium sector experienced a profit decline of 126.9% [16][22] 4. Fund Holdings - In Q1 2025, the proportion of active funds holding non-ferrous metals stocks increased by 0.71 percentage points to 3.82% [32] - The top ten active fund holdings included companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold, with a focus on gold sector companies [34]

Group 1: Economic and Trade - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in the range of 4.25%-4.50% for the third consecutive time, with concerns over the unpredictability of Trump's tariff policies being a major issue [4] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing that government debt is expected to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, leading to increased concerns over U.S. debt risks and a 0.8% drop in the dollar index [5] Group 2: Technology and Society - A new microorganism species named "Tian Gong Nier Jun" was discovered in samples collected by astronauts from the Chinese space station, marking a breakthrough in space life sciences [6] - The first "Mount Everest Dialogue" concluded in Nepal, where a Chinese scientist proposed establishing a cross-border disaster warning system due to significant glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau, which has seen a 15% reduction in glacier area since the 20th century [7] Group 3: International Relations and Controversies - China's Vice Premier Zhang Guoqing is set to visit Russia to promote local cooperation in energy and agriculture, while another Vice Premier is attending the World Health Assembly in Switzerland [8] - Indonesia's purchase of 42 French "Rafale" fighter jets for $8.1 billion has raised performance concerns, with experts questioning the aircraft's effectiveness in complex electromagnetic environments [10]

金十数据5月18日讯，日本共同社18日发布的民意调查结果显示，对于美国总统唐纳德·特朗普第二次执 政的表现，现在日本国内大约81%民众感到"焦虑多于希望"。关于对本届美国政府感到"焦虑"的缘由， 上述八成受访者中，有42%选择特朗普关税政策对自由贸易产生的影响，41%选择特朗普本人行事作风 的不可预测性。这项关于日本民众对国际事务看法的民调3月4日至4月14日进行，覆盖日本250个地区的 3000名18岁以上人员，最终收回1867份有效答卷。（新华社） 日本民调：八成受访者对特朗普政府"焦虑多于希望" ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant rise on May 14, with all three major indices increasing by over 2%. The Hang Seng Index rose by 2.3% to 23,640.65 points, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 2.47% to 8,593.07 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index gained 2.13% to 5,381.78 points [2]. Financial Sector Performance - Major financial stocks saw a substantial surge, particularly in the insurance and Chinese brokerage sectors. Notable gains included China Pacific Insurance rising nearly 8%, with China Life and China Taiping both increasing by over 6%. In the brokerage sector, Hongye Futures surged over 12%, while other firms like Xingsheng International and GF Securities rose by 9% and 6%, respectively [4][9]. Technology Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively performed well, with Baidu increasing by over 4%, Alibaba and JD.com both rising by over 3%, and Tencent gaining nearly 3%. Internet healthcare stocks also showed strength, with JD Health and ZhongAn Online both rising over 5% [4][6]. Automotive Sector Performance - The automotive sector continued its upward trend, with Leap Motor increasing by over 6% to reach a new high. Other notable gains included BYD and Li Auto, both rising over 4%, while XPeng and NIO increased by over 3% [5][10]. Regulatory Impact - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) recently released a plan to promote the high-quality development of public funds, which is expected to drive capital flows towards the brokerage sector. The new regulations may lead fund managers to allocate more resources to sectors with lower current allocations, particularly those with higher benchmark weights [9].

panweizhen@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790524040006 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 14 日 关税对美国通胀冲击或已初显端倪 ——美国 4 月 CPI 点评 | 何宁（分析师） | 潘纬桢（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | panweizhen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524040006 | 事件：美国公布 2025 年 4 月最新通胀数据。其中 CPI 同比上升 2.3%，环比上 升 0.2%，均不及市场预期；核心 CPI 同比上升 2.8%，基本符合市场预期；环 比上升 0.2%，不及市场预期。 通胀水平再度回落，但核心通胀基本稳定 1. 总体通胀再次下降，且环比上升幅度不及预期。美国 4 月 CPI 同比上升 2.3%，环比上升 0.2%；核心 CPI 同比上涨 2.8%，环比上升 0.2%。总的看，美 国通胀连续 3 个月回落，但核心通胀不再同步回落，且环比增速开始向上，虽 然幅度不及预期，但市场对美国通胀的担忧或难进一步缓解。往后看，随着特 朗普关税政策 ...

文|五月 编辑|五月 前言 前言 2025年5月， 中美两国代表团在日内瓦展开了为期两天的谈判。 外界普遍对这场谈判的结果不抱太大希望，尤其是在特朗普政府坚持不降低关税的情况下。 随着会谈的深入，美国在态度上发生了明显变化，尤其是在关税政策上的软化。 这场谈判不仅凸显了美方的急切需求，也揭示了美国在经济和法律方面的巨大压力。 这场关键的对话能否为紧张的中美关系带来新的转机？ 中美日内瓦谈判 2025年5月，日内瓦的中美谈判备受关注。在谈判开始之前，外界普遍对双方能否达成共识持悲观态度。 特朗普总统曾在多个场合表示， 不会为了重新启动谈判而降低对华关税，并且强调关税政策是美国维护国家利益的一部分。 与此同时，中方的态度也十分坚决，外交部发言人林剑回应称： "谈可以谈，要打我们也奉陪到底。" 这一强硬的立场让外界认为，中美之间的对话或许难以取得实质性进展。 随着谈判的进行，局面开始出现转机。美方代表贝森特在最初几轮会谈后表示， 虽然没有太大期望能够达成协议，但至少希望通过此次对话实现一定的"降 温"。 特朗普在会谈结束后通过社交媒体表达了对谈判结果的积极看法，称这是一次非常成功的会面，双方取得了"良好的进展"。 ...

美国新的财长已经表示，债务上限8月份到期，意味着新一轮印钞谈判将会开启，虽然特朗普权利集 中，并且希望美国把这个限制取消，但希望破灭，未来债务路径和拜登相差不大。 众议院共和党支出部长表示，他不认为"我们将暂停债务上限"。基本上宣告了未来的协议两党博弈和之 前没啥区别。 根据美国财政部的数据，截至2月底，日本持有约1.13万亿美元的美国国债。 几十年来，投资者一直渴望购买美国国债，即使这意味着收益率较低。全世界都希望把自己的财富放在 一个安全、流动性强的地方，而美国一直是这方面的提供者。在2008年全球金融危机最严重的时候，欧 洲投资者愿意放弃大约1%的年回报率，以换取持有美国国债的便利，即所谓的"便利收益率"。 同样的，几十年来，美国联邦政府一直指望外国投资者在任何情况下购买其债务。这就是为什么华盛顿 能够在经济不景气时维持巨额赤字的原因。 现在这些正在发生变化。 也难怪巴菲特对于美债问题给出了尖锐建议-在五分钟内结束赤字：你只要通过一项法律，规定任何时 候赤字超过GDP的3%，所有现任国会议员都没有资格连任。 与以往不同的是，全球对于美债问题敏感度在今年大幅提高，主要原因是特朗普关税疯狂程度远超预 期。 ...

Group 1 - The uncertainty brought by Trump's tariff policies is significantly impacting businesses, with many executives expressing concerns about the potential economic downturn [1][6][7] - In the first quarter earnings season, major tech companies like Meta and Alphabet reported strong revenue and profits, exceeding Wall Street expectations, particularly in online advertising [3][4] - Despite strong first-quarter results, executives from various tech companies are cautious about future performance due to potential reductions in advertising spending from Asian clients and broader macroeconomic uncertainties [4][5] Group 2 - The frequency of mentions of "tariffs" in earnings calls has surpassed that of "AI," indicating a shift in focus among companies from technological advancements to trade concerns [6][7] - Over 60% of CEOs surveyed expect some form of economic slowdown in the next six months, with nearly three-quarters indicating that tariffs could harm their businesses [7][8] - Smaller tech companies may be more adversely affected by potential reductions in advertising spending compared to larger platforms, as advertisers tend to seek refuge in larger platforms during economic uncertainty [6]

观察者网消息，美国总统特朗普对华加征关税后，美国企业"爆单"了？美国白宫新闻秘书莱维特日前在社 交媒体X（原推特）上转发的一篇报道，在特朗普的MAGA支持者中引发关注。但很快有声音指出，报道 中所谓美国制造正变得"更有竞争力"的说法，其实不甚严谨…… 这篇美国右翼新闻网站"Daily Caller"5月5日发布的报道宣称，特朗普对中国进口商品加征的145%的关税， 正在提升美国制造产品的市场竞争力，"许多中小型制造商订单激增，并准备提高产量和招聘新员工"。 而其依据之一是，一家俄亥俄州的橡胶和塑料制造商Grand River表示，最近收到了更多订单问询，包 括"两家"几年前就转向中国供应商的老客户。还有三家生产机油滤清器的公司也与其取得联系，希望将采 购从中国转回美国，其中两家已经下了订单。 截至发稿，莱维特转发上述报道的帖文获得了近百万浏览量，转发和评论上千。 不过，许多美国网民都对这一说法表示怀疑。有人直言，个别厂商的订单增加，很难说同样反映了市场中 其余成千上万家中小型厂商的情况。一条似乎来自美国制造业业内人士的评论说，许多所谓在美国制造的 厂商，也要依赖从海外进口的零部件，即使中小企业能承担关税的"核 ...