Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell maintains a patient and watchful stance on potential interest rate cuts, emphasizing that decisions will depend on upcoming economic data [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Decisions - Powell reiterated that the Fed is closely monitoring the impact of tariff policies on prices and economic growth, suggesting that concerns over tariffs have hindered the Fed's ability to lower rates [1]. - The last interest rate cut by the Fed occurred in December 2024, and since then, rates have remained unchanged for four consecutive meetings [1]. - There is internal division within the Fed regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some members advocating for cuts as early as July [3]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.4% year-on-year in May, while the core CPI increased by 2.8%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2]. - The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for June was reported at 49, indicating contraction in the manufacturing sector, despite being above the expected 48.8 [3]. - Private sector employment decreased by 33,000 jobs in June, raising concerns about economic recession and potentially prompting the Fed to consider rate cuts to stimulate growth [3]. Group 3: Political Pressures and Fed Leadership - President Trump has expressed dissatisfaction with Powell and has indicated intentions to nominate a successor to weaken Powell's influence, with several candidates mentioned [2]. - Powell emphasizes the need for a non-political approach to decision-making, focusing on data-driven policies despite external pressures [2].

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda Soichi believes that a severe recession in the U.S. economy is unlikely [1] Group 1 - Takeda highlights that the U.S. economy is showing resilience despite various challenges [1] - The member's comments suggest a positive outlook for global economic conditions, which may influence investment strategies [1] - Takeda's perspective may impact market sentiment regarding U.S. economic stability and growth potential [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan's policy board member Takeda is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's policies and believes that a severe recession in the U.S. economy is unlikely [1] Group 1 - Takeda emphasizes the importance of observing the Federal Reserve's actions as they could impact global economic conditions [1] - The statement reflects a cautious optimism regarding the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst potential challenges [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the emerging markets (EM) sector, but it discusses the current state of capital flows and economic conditions, indicating a cautious outlook due to various factors affecting inflows [2][4][14]. Core Insights - The report highlights a "sudden stall" in capital flows to emerging markets, with cumulative net outflows of $27 billion through April 2025, driven primarily by portfolio investments [10][14]. - Despite a weaker dollar acting as a push factor for inflows, the lack of stronger growth in emerging markets limits the pull factor, resulting in sluggish inflows [7][9]. - The report notes that current accounts in emerging markets are generally in good shape, which has insulated them from significant macroeconomic damage despite the capital flow challenges [14][16]. Summary by Sections Economic Overview - The report discusses the elevated probability of a US recession at 40%, with uncertainties surrounding US trade policies and geopolitical risks impacting global economic conditions [1]. - It mentions that the dollar has weakened significantly since March, which typically would benefit emerging markets, but this has not translated into expected inflows [2][4]. Capital Flows Analysis - The report identifies both push and pull factors influencing capital flows, with a weaker dollar serving as a push factor and the growth differential between emerging and developed markets acting as a pull factor [3]. - It notes that portfolio inflows have been weak since October, with a significant outflow of $115 billion in April 2025, attributed to market turmoil [10][12]. Growth and Inflation Outlook - The report suggests that domestic demand in emerging markets remains soft, and any escalation in tariffs could skew risks further to the downside, impacting growth differentials [9]. - It emphasizes that while inflation is expected to move lower, some central banks in emerging markets may have room to cut rates due to contained macro risks [14][16].

Economic Outlook - Wall Street warns of a potential 25% drop in the U.S. economy, which poses a significant threat to Trump's support base, particularly the blue-collar workers facing housing pressure and inflation-related purchasing power decline [2] - The U.S. economy shows signs of instability with a 0.3% contraction in Q1 GDP and declining consumer confidence in Q2, alongside an expanding fiscal deficit [4] Political Maneuvering - Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran is perceived as a political strategy to stabilize oil prices and mitigate inflationary pressures, while also limiting the Federal Reserve's room for interest rate cuts [4][5] - The ceasefire is viewed as a carefully orchestrated political performance rather than a genuine resolution to the Middle East conflict, with no real winners among the involved parties [11] Market Reactions - Following the ceasefire announcement, global financial markets reacted with a drop in demand for the dollar as a safe haven, a significant decrease in oil prices, and a rebound in the Chinese yuan [9] - The shift in market dynamics indicates a potential decline in the dollar's dominance in the global financial system, as many central banks have increased their gold holdings to the highest level in five years [9] Domestic Challenges - Trump's military actions against Iran have sparked strong discontent within Congress, with both Democrats and some Republicans questioning the constitutionality of his decisions, leading to increased internal party divisions [7] - Public protests against Trump's policies are largely ignored as he grapples with more pressing issues, including the economic crisis and escalating trade tensions [7]

固定收益 | 固定收益专题 2025 年 06 月 27 日 作者 谭逸鸣 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525050005 tanyiming@tfzq.com 唐海清 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110517030002 tanghaiqing@tfzq.com 裴明楠 分析师 SAC 执业证书编号：S1110525060004 peimingnan@tfzq.com 近期报告 1 《固定收益：信用主体骑乘库一览- 信用策略系列》 2025-06-26 美国经济观察 美国到"衰退"门槛还有多远？ 从 NBER 六大指标看，美国经济尚无"衰退"信号。今年 3 月以来，市场 持续下调美国经济增速预期，美国一季度 GDP 增速下修至-0.5%。美国经 济是否真的被"透支"空了呢？ NBER 采用 6 个底层指标判定"经济衰退 期"，截至今年 4 月，仅有 1 项指标进入明确下行趋势，4 项处于波动，1 项仍在上行趋势。 一季度美国 GDP 负增长是"技术性"现象。一季度美国 GDP 修正值-0.5% （季调环比折年率，下同），主因企业在关税前囤货，贸易逆差大增，"净 出口"拖累 GDP 增速 4 ...

Group 1 - The depreciation of the US dollar has reached a three-year low, raising concerns about the stability of the US economy and potentially shrinking American savings [1] - The dollar has depreciated by approximately 10% this year, while the euro has risen to its highest level in nearly four years [1] - The decline in the dollar's value may benefit domestic companies exporting US goods, but it will increase costs for American international travel and imported goods [1] Group 2 - Factors influencing the dollar's value include demand from central banks and financial institutions, as well as the overall fiscal condition of the US, including inflation rates, trade relations, and debt [2] - Economists warn of a potential economic recession or slowdown in the US, leading investors to reduce their investments in American assets [2] - The dollar's depreciation was anticipated regardless of the outcome of the 2024 presidential election, as indicated by experts [2] Group 3 - Trump's policies, particularly the comprehensive tariff policy, are seen as accelerating the dollar's depreciation [3] - The decline in the dollar's exchange rate will increase international travel costs for Americans and raise prices for imported goods [3] - Companies exporting US goods may gain a competitive advantage due to the lower prices of American products and services in foreign markets [3]

Group 1 - Morgan Stanley projects a slowdown in global GDP growth to 1.4% and an increase in core inflation to 3.4% in the second half of 2025 due to trade wars and rising tariffs [1] - The manufacturing sector is expected to benefit from early investments made in the first half of the year, but will face significant pressure from the anticipated slowdown [1] - Core inflation in the Eurozone is expected to drop below 2%, while China's exports to the U.S. have significantly decreased, offset by growth in exports to other regions [1] Group 2 - There is a moderate upward deviation in global GDP growth expectations for the second half of 2025, driven by a healthy private sector, a robust financial environment, and anticipated increases in energy supply and fiscal policy easing [2] - The risk of the U.S. economy entering a recession is estimated at 40%, primarily due to concerns over a sharp decline in household purchasing power and weak business sentiment [2] - A buffer mechanism from a healthy industry that has not laid off workers is crucial for sustaining U.S. economic growth, although it may lead to compressed profit margins, which could weaken growth prospects [2]

在货币政策预期方面，摩根大通预计美联储将在 12 月至 2026 年春季期间实施降息举措，降息幅度达 100 个基点。分析师进一步强调，如果美国经济衰退的 情况成真，或者经济放缓幅度超出预期，美联储将不得不开启更为激进的降息周期。这一预测并非空穴来风，历史数据显示，每当美国经济面临衰退风险 时，美联储通常会通过降息来刺激经济增长。然而，当前美国通胀水平仍处于高位，降息政策可能会进一步加剧通胀压力，这也让美联储在货币政策调整上 面临两难抉择。 摩根大通对美国经济前景持谨慎悲观态度，明确表示美国今年下半年陷入衰退的概率高达 40%。在经济增长预期方面，该行将 2025 年美国经济增长率大幅 下调至 1.3%，与年初预测的 2% 相比，差距显著。报告直言不讳地指出："关税上调带来的滞胀效应是我们下调今年 GDP 增长预期的原因。" 美国关税政策 犹如一把双刃剑，表面上试图保护本土产业，实则扰乱了全球供应链的正常运转。以制造业为例，许多美国企业因关税成本上升，面临原材料价格上涨、生 产成本增加的困境，不得不压缩生产规模或提高产品价格。这不仅导致企业利润下滑，还使得消费者购买力下降，最终抑制了经济增长。同时，关税政策引 ...

不过，同日公布的美国上周初请失业金人数和5月耐用品订单数据均好于预期，则部分缓解了对美国经 济衰退的担忧。 新华财经北京6月27日电（吴郑思）周四（6月26日），国际金价承压走低，美股走高，市场风险偏好改 善，成为黄金市场的主要利空。 截至收盘时，纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价当日收盘下跌4.8美元，收 于每盎司3341.6美元，跌幅为0.14%。 尽管在以伊停火协议生效后，市场风险情绪改善，削弱了黄金的吸引力，但近期美元指数持续走低，则 给黄金提供了部分支撑。 美联储提前"换帅"传闻、避险需求下降、各国贸易谈判博弈等因素综合作用，26日盘中美元指数跌至三 年低点。欧元兑美元汇率也在当日升至1比1.171，达到2021年9月以来最高水平。 消息面上，美国商务部26日早间公布的最终修正数据显示，2025年第一季度美国国内生产总值（GDP） 环比按年率计算萎缩0.5%，弱于-0.3%的初值和-0.2%的修正值。 短期来看，在美联储继续观望关税政策影响的背景下，市场更加关注通胀数据，以评估美国利率前景。 这使得晚间美国5月PCE物价指数出炉前，黄金不具备走高动力。 值得关注的是，虽然金 ...