Group 1 - The core point of the article is the unusual visit of President Trump to the Federal Reserve, where he urged Chairman Powell to lower interest rates, highlighting the tension between the two [1][3][4] - This visit marks the first time in nearly 20 years that a sitting U.S. president has officially visited the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the tradition of the Fed's independence from the White House [1] - During the visit, Trump expressed concerns over the $3.1 billion renovation costs of the Fed building, using it as a platform to criticize the Fed's management and budgetary decisions [1][3] Group 2 - Trump reiterated his desire for interest rate cuts, stating that he hopes to see rates come down, indicating a focus on monetary policy during his discussions with Powell [3][4] - Despite the tension, Trump described the conversation with Powell as "good" but did not disclose specific details due to the Fed's pre-meeting silence period [3] - The article notes that there is widespread expectation that the Fed will maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with potential rate cuts anticipated later in the year, although Powell remains cautious due to inflation concerns linked to Trump's tariff policies [4]

在全球金融市场的密切关注下，美联储主席鲍威尔于近日深夜发表了一席重要讲话，与此同时，中国资产展现出强劲的市场表现，共同编织出一幅复杂多变 的市场图景。 在市场层面，美股三大指数呈现出震荡分化的态势。纳指在盘初一度跳水跌超1%，但随后跌幅逐渐收窄。与此同时，中国资产却逆势走强，成为市场关注 的焦点。纳斯达克中国金龙指数直线拉升，涨幅显著。三倍做多富时中国ETF也大涨超3%，表现出色。 中概股方面同样呈现出全面上涨的态势。大全新能源大涨超16%，领涨中概股市场。蔚来汽车涨幅超过9%，百度和小鹏汽车也分别涨超3%。拼多多和唯品 会等企业的股价也实现了显著上涨，多只个股表现抢眼。 尽管市场对中国资产的表现充满期待，但掉期市场显示，美联储下周降息的可能性仍然很低。交易员们的定价押注显示，美联储在今年剩余时间内将总共降 息46个基点，这一水平与上周五相比几乎没有变化。对于美联储9月的利率决策，市场认为维持利率不变的概率为41.4%，而累计降息25个基点的概率则高 达57.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率则相对较低。 来源：http://www.cnu.com.cn/cellphone/202507/105971.html ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%；美联储9 月维持利率不变的概率为41.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为57.2%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.5%。 ...

据CME"美联储观察"，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为2.6%；美联储9 月维持利率不变的概率为46.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为51.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 1.3%。（新华财经） ...

智通财经7月17日电，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.9%，降息25个基点的 概率为4.1%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为43.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为54.0%，累计降息50 个基点的概率为2.2%。 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为95.9% ...

Core Viewpoint - The inflation report is generally positive, with core inflation rising by 0.2% month-over-month, aligning with expectations, while annual data is slightly above expectations [1] Group 1: Inflation Data - Core inflation's monthly increase of 0.2% meets expectations, indicating stability in inflation trends [1] - Annual inflation data is slightly higher than anticipated, suggesting some inflationary pressures may be emerging [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Implications - The inflation data provides the Federal Reserve with breathing room, allowing them to maintain interest rates steady in July [1] - The Fed will need to consider data from July and August before making a decision in September [1]

CPI公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率升至97.4% 金十数据7月15日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：CPI数据公布后，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为97.4%，降息25个基点的概率为 2.6%。美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为38.6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为59.9%，累计降息50个基点的概率为1.6%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 0.9% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 1.6% | 34.0% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 2.6% | 59.9% | 48.0% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 97.4% | 38.6% | 17.1% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS ...

金十数据7月15日讯，据CME"美联储观察"：美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为94.8%，降息25个基点的概率为5.2%。美联储9月 维持利率不变的概率为36.9%，累计降息25个基点的概率为60.0%，累计降息50个基点的概率为3.2%。 | 预测利率 | 2025.07.31 | 2025.09.18 | 2025.10.30 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 3.50%-3.75% | | 0.0% | 1.9% | | 3.75%-4.00% | 0.0% | 3.2% | 37.2% | | 4.00%-4.25% | 5.2% | 60.0% | 46.1% | | 4.25%-4.50%(当前利率) | 94.8% | 36.9% | 14.8% | @ JIN10.COM 金十数据 | 一个交易工具 往后三次议息会议可能性预测 EXPECTATIONS OF NEXT THREE FOMC MEETINGS 美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为94.8% ...

Group 1 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in July is 92.8%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 7.2% [1] - For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 29.7%, with a cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut at 65.4% and a 50 basis point cut at 4.9% [1] - The current interest rate is 4.25%-4.50%, with a 92.8% probability of being maintained in July, decreasing to 29.7% in September and 11.3% in October [4] Group 2 - The expected interest rate ranges for the upcoming meetings are as follows: 3.75%-4.00% has a 42.4% probability in October, while 4.00%-4.25% has a 43.3% probability [4] - The likelihood of the Federal Reserve maintaining the current rate of 4.25%-4.50% decreases significantly in the upcoming months, indicating potential shifts in monetary policy [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is facing unprecedented complexity due to the impact of tariff policies implemented by the Trump administration, which are significantly influencing interest rate decisions [1][3]. Group 1: Tariff Impact on Monetary Policy - The announcement of new tariffs in April has led to a comprehensive adjustment of the Federal Reserve's economic forecasting models, necessitating a reevaluation of inflation prospects [3]. - Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from June indicate that policymakers discussed the effects of tariffs in depth, ultimately deciding to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.50% for the fourth consecutive time [3][5]. - The policy statement highlighted "changes in the global trade environment" as a new risk factor [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - Following Powell's remarks, the bond market reacted with a 5 basis point drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, which later rebounded by 3 basis points, reflecting investor confusion regarding policy outlook [5]. - The U.S. labor market remains tight with an unemployment rate at a historical low of 3.8%, while manufacturing activity indices have been below the neutral level for two consecutive months [5]. - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for imported goods increased by 1.2% month-over-month, significantly above historical averages, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5]. Group 3: Future Policy Expectations - Despite Powell's current stance against rate cuts, market expectations suggest a 65% probability of a rate cut in September, with uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the cut [6]. - Powell emphasized the need for data reliance and policy flexibility in response to the evolving trade policy landscape, indicating a shift in the Fed's approach to monetary policy [8]. - The intertwining of political and economic factors is expected to complicate future monetary policy decisions, as noted by a former Fed official [9].