特朗普：股市只是一个"指标" 加总理即将访问白宫 金十数据5月1日讯，美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上表示，他不打算为股市的情况"邀功"或"承担过错"， 股市只是一个指标，股市的情况表明他们接手了一个多么糟糕的局面，而在下个季度，仍会出现拜登所 带来的影响。特朗普还称，昨天加拿大总理卡尼向其通话，称希望达成协议，特朗普认为美国将与加拿 大建立良好的关系。此外，加拿大总理卡尼将于下周或更短的时间内访问白宫。 ...

"我不认为股市是终极目标，"美国总统特朗普在内阁会议上被问及过去几个月股市下跌时表示。"它是 一个指标。" 特朗普表示："我并不打算为股市邀功或承担过错，我只是说我们继承了一个烂摊子"。加拿大总理马克 ·卡尼将在下周之内访问白宫。特朗普表示，他周二与卡尼进行了通话，"他的态度再友好不过了"。"我 认为我们将会有很好的关系，"特朗普谈到两国关系时说。 ...

美国总统特朗普：股市是一个指标。 ...

美国总统特朗普：股市显示了我们接手的形势有多糟糕。 ...

美国总统特朗普：不对股市的情况进行功过评判。 ...

Group 1 - A drowning incident occurred in Duzhang Village, Pingjiang County, resulting in 4 fatalities, with 2 individuals still missing [1] - Local authorities are actively organizing search and rescue operations for the missing persons [1] Group 2 - The article mentions a significant increase in market activity, with a notable 92.1% surge [3] - There are announcements regarding price hikes in certain sectors, indicating potential market shifts [3] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict, is highlighted as a critical factor influencing market dynamics [3]

美联储古尔斯比：关税实施情况远超我们之前的模型预测。美联储必须从更长远的角度来看待问题，而 不是像股市那样波动不定。 订阅美联储动态 +订阅 ...

Group 1 - The Chinese government supports Panama's sovereignty over the Panama Canal and is committed to maintaining its status as a permanently neutral international passageway [1] - China has never participated in the management or operation of the Panama Canal and does not interfere in its affairs [1] - Claims that "China controls the canal" are described as completely false [1] Group 2 - Recent statements from Chinese officials emphasize the importance of promoting healthy development in the real estate and stock markets [2] - Multiple companies are engaging in mergers and acquisitions, indicating a dynamic market environment [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has made significant announcements that could impact the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The current economic situation in China is characterized by a cyclical downturn coupled with structural issues, necessitating measures to avoid the multiplier effect of a declining real estate market and to improve the economic structure [2][28]. Economic Growth and Policy Expectations - The GDP growth target for 2025 is expected to remain around 5% [4][92]. - The policy multiplier effect in 2025 is anticipated to be better than in 2024, with expectations for new initiatives in fiscal reform, budget investment, monetary policy, high-quality development, and technological innovation during the upcoming Two Sessions [3][90]. Monetary Policy Outlook - In 2025, a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut of 1 percentage point and interest rate cuts totaling 0.75 percentage points are expected, likely implemented in 2-3 phases [5][78]. - The downward trend in interest rates is projected to positively impact the stability of the real estate and stock markets, contributing to a prosperous capital market in 2025 [5][80]. Structural Issues and Consumption - The global economy faces severe structural problems, including geopolitical conflicts and economic disparities, which also affect China's economic landscape [26][24]. - There is a need to enhance consumption and expand domestic demand, particularly as the wealth effect from real estate diminishes [29][30]. Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate sector is undergoing a mean reversion process, with a prolonged adjustment period expected due to previous overvaluation [52][54]. - The contribution of real estate to GDP was significant, accounting for 25% during its peak, and its decline will have widespread negative impacts on various industries [32][34]. Investment and Consumption Trends - Investment returns are declining, leading to a contraction in expansion plans among households and private enterprises [30][46]. - Consumption is identified as a slow variable, contrasting with investment as a fast variable, indicating a need for structural improvements to stimulate long-term demand [41][44]. Fiscal Policy Recommendations - There is a call for increased fiscal stimulus, particularly in consumer spending, with suggestions to raise the fiscal deficit level and leverage central government finances [66][67]. - The current central government leverage is relatively low compared to other countries, indicating room for fiscal expansion [70][71]. Capital Market Outlook - The capital market is expected to thrive in 2025, supported by robust policy measures and a stable GDP growth environment [93][88]. - The focus on income distribution reform could significantly enhance consumption, with potential contributions estimated at around 200 billion annually if middle and low-income groups see an increase in their income share [84][85].

看法说多了，自己都信了，以至于错了还在坚持，甚至自己都知道错了，也为了面子而坚守，找各种理由说服自己继续坚持。这是在潜移默化中自己迷失 自己。 1月LPR按兵不动、符合预期，资金面有所缓和、资金价格仍不便宜，债市利率小幅上行。 周末主席同特朗普通电话，市场对中美关系的悲观预期有所缓和。早盘债市情绪偏弱，10Y国债利率小幅高开在1.65%。1月LPR报价保持不变，符合预 期。股市冲高回落，10Y国债利率小幅下行至1.64%。午后存单表现持续偏弱，利率小幅上行至1.647%。 今日全球市场的焦点无疑是"懂王登基"，从发行虚拟币"夫妻双双把韭割"，到计划上任后立即签署100项行政命令，只有你想不到，没有懂王做不到。不 过影响今日债市的核心变量并非中美关系改善的叙事，而依旧是资金面，虽较上周有所改善，但也谈不上宽松，资金价格仍然偏贵。本周三有9595亿元逆 回购到期，"救我救我"，希望央妈能包个春节红包给大家开心过年。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250120— 懂王登基，流量变现（-周末中美元首通电话-资金面偏紧=小上)】 资金面先紧后松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展1230亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有 ...