Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent bull market in the A-share market, emphasizing the importance of understanding market trends and investor psychology during periods of volatility [4][10]. Market Performance - The recent bull market lasted from the end of 2018 to the end of 2021, with the Wande All A index experiencing a maximum increase of 87.14% and a maximum drawdown of -16.4% due to the pandemic [4]. - There were 11 instances of drawdowns exceeding 5%, with an average recovery time of 38 days, and missing these recoveries could result in an average loss of 41% in potential gains [7][8]. Investor Sentiment - Investors have become more sensitive to drawdowns due to the prolonged bear market over the past three years, which has been compounded by economic downturns and declining incomes [8]. - The article suggests that to benefit from a bull market, investors must be mentally prepared to accept drawdowns, as avoiding them could lead to missed opportunities for gains [8][10]. Market Outlook - The long-term outlook remains positive, with the belief that any short-term pullbacks are likely part of the ongoing bull market rather than the start of a new bear market [10]. - The market is currently in an upward trend, supported by a positive cycle of increasing investment and market confidence [11]. Valuation and Comparison - As of July 25, the Wande All A index had a price-to-book ratio of 1.7, which is within a reasonable range compared to historical data [13]. - A-shares are relatively undervalued compared to other global indices, indicating potential for growth [15]. Policy Support - Continuous policy support from regulatory bodies is expected to maintain market stability and growth [18]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has expressed commitment to consolidating the positive market trend [18]. Capital Flow - The market is experiencing ample liquidity, with significant potential for incremental capital inflow as household savings remain high and interest rates decline [19]. - Foreign institutional investors are currently underweight in A-shares, suggesting room for increased investment from abroad [19]. Conclusion - The article concludes that in a bull market, short-term trading can be risky, and investors should maintain a long-term perspective and not exit the market prematurely [20].

奥本海默董事总经理兼技术分析师阿里·沃尔德在最新报告中指出，当前市场并未显示见顶迹象。纽约 证券交易所超过60%的股票已突破200日移动均线，这一技术指标表明市场上涨具备广泛基础。市场推 动力并非仅来自少数大型科技公司，而是呈现出更为健康的多元化特征。 沃尔德建议交易员可在标普500指数突破周期新高时买入，并将止损位设定在5650点。该止损位意味着 潜在下行风险仅为1%，而上行空间可达5%。基于历史牛市周期的中位数表现，沃尔德认为当前牛市可 能延续至2025年底，届时标普500指数有望触及7000点附近。 华尔街知名投行奥本海默资产管理公司近期发布最新研究报告，将标普500指数年终目标价大幅上调至 7100点。这一预测在华尔街主要券商中位居最高水平。按照该目标计算，标普500指数相较当前水平仍 有约11%的上涨空间。奥本海默首席投资策略师约翰·斯托尔茨弗斯表示，贸易谈判取得的积极进展为 市场注入强劲动力。美国与多个贸易伙伴达成协议，有效缓解了此前的关税担忧情绪。 技术面分析支撑乐观预期 市场广度的扩张为奥本海默的乐观预期提供重要支撑。防御性板块开始领涨，这可能代表此前表现不佳 公司的追赶行情。工业板块屡创新高 ...

Group 1 - The central bank is set to conduct a 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation, indicating strong market support and a bullish sentiment among investors [1] - The market index has repeatedly broken through the 3600-point level, reflecting the determination of bulls to push prices higher despite attempts by bears to create downward pressure [1][3] - The trading volume remains significantly high, with around 1.8 trillion yuan traded, suggesting that funds are not retreating despite market fluctuations [3][7] Group 2 - The A-share market continues to show signs of rotation among sectors, with mixed performance among individual stocks, indicating a balance of power between bulls and bears [5][7] - The overall market trend remains positive, with support expected around the 3550-point level, suggesting a potential for upward movement [5] - The market is characterized by a slow and steady upward trend, aligning with the characteristics of a "slow bull" market, as long as no major negative news emerges [7]

Group 1 - The central bank's sudden interest rate cut has positively impacted the A-share market, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3597.94 points, a slight increase of 0.12% [1] - The ChiNext Index showed the strongest performance, rising by 0.96% and reaching a new high for the year, with a technical target of 3674 points [1][3] - The PCB sector experienced a significant rally, with Shenghong Technology's stock price increasing by over 12%, bringing its total market value to 150 billion [7] Group 2 - The Shanghai Composite Index is steadily climbing along the five-day moving average, which has recently flattened and shows signs of a potential downward turn [5] - Historical patterns suggest that a downward turn in the five-day moving average could lead to a correction of 3-5%, translating to a drop of approximately 120 to 150 points for the Shanghai Composite Index [5] - The market is currently in a phase of high volatility, with strong competition between bullish and bearish forces, indicating that significant changes in market direction may not occur until key events unfold [3][5]

Group 1 - The recent fund issuance market has seen an influx of 27.6 billion in capital, with equity funds accounting for 60% of this amount, indicating investor confidence in the current market conditions [1] - The behavior of investors differs between the beginning and end of a bull market; at the start, they fear missing out on performance, while at the end, they worry about losing market share to competitors [1][2] - The characteristics of a bull market include significant capital inflow and active trading, with a focus on understanding institutional behavior rather than just surface-level market indicators [4][6] Group 2 - Quantitative data reveals a different narrative than traditional technical analysis, showing that while some stocks appear to be declining, institutional buying is actually occurring [6][9] - The true value in the market lies in understanding trading behavior rather than relying solely on news or technical indicators, which can mislead investors [9][12] - The recent trend of new fund issuance, particularly the shift from bond funds to equity funds, highlights the importance of understanding where and how capital flows in the market [12]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of strategic asset allocation for families to optimize their wealth management and investment returns [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The current market environment presents both challenges and opportunities for investors, particularly in the context of rising interest rates and inflation [1] - Diversification across various asset classes is highlighted as a key strategy to mitigate risks and enhance returns [1] Group 2: Company Analysis - Specific companies within the financial services sector are noted for their innovative approaches to asset management, which could provide competitive advantages [1] - The article discusses the performance metrics of leading firms, indicating a trend of increased assets under management (AUM) and revenue growth in the past year [1]

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index has surpassed the 3600-point mark for the first time since October 8 of the previous year, indicating a potential bullish market trend [1][8] - Historical data suggests that once the index stabilizes above 3600 points, targets of 3700 and even 4000 points become achievable [1][8] - The market has shown strong bullish sentiment, with trading volumes exceeding 1 trillion yuan for 43 consecutive days, recently hovering around 1.8 trillion yuan [1][8] Group 2 - Multiple institutions are optimistic about the current bull market, with reports indicating that the index has confirmed a comprehensive market rally [2][8] - The index has broken through previous high points, signaling a significant shift in market sentiment and the establishment of a bull market [2][8] Group 3 - The insurance sector is gaining attention due to its deep connection with the capital markets, with leading companies like Ping An showing strong performance [4][21] - As of July 28, the insurance index has seen a cumulative increase of 28% since April 8, while the Hong Kong insurance sector has risen nearly 48% in the same period [22][23] Group 4 - The current bull market is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, driven by policy guidance and a reassessment of confidence in Chinese assets [9][10] - The influx of foreign capital into A-shares and Hong Kong stocks has increased investor confidence, with a net increase of 10.1 billion USD in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year [9][10] Group 5 - The insurance sector is expected to benefit from a combination of policy support, market conditions, and improvements in the fundamentals of insurance companies [24][29] - The recent adjustments in preset interest rates and the easing of capital constraints are likely to enhance the valuation recovery of insurance companies [24][30] Group 6 - Ping An is positioned as a key beneficiary of the current market dynamics, with significant growth in its new business value and improvements in its operational efficiency [38][40] - The company's integrated financial and healthcare ecosystem is expected to provide additional valuation premiums, distinguishing it from traditional insurance firms [40][41]

"牛市"相关研报增多 随着近日沪指在时隔9个月后首次突破3600点，"牛市氛围"逐渐成为A股市场的主流叙事，市场预测的 目标点位不断抬升。那么，作为行情风向标，券商研究所最近发布报告、路演、电话会、调研的频次是 不是也"水涨船高"呢? 据慧博智能终端数据，最近一周内，券商总共发布了各类投资策略研报近224份，研报数量较此前没有 明显增多。 时值中报披露静默期，最近券商对上市公司的调研也有所减少。据Choice数据统计，近一个月，券商调 研次数达到3080次，比近6个月的平均值下降较多。 不过值得关注的是，近期券商对于"牛市"的呼声较此前明显增多。据慧博智能终端数据，最近一个月 内，标题出现"牛市"的券商策略报告多达13篇。相比之下，最近三个月内，标题出现"牛市"的券商策略 报告是23篇。也就是说，其中有57%的"牛市"研报发布时间是近一个月内。而一些研报即使标题里没有 出现"牛市"，但看多的情绪溢于言表，比如某头部券商策略团队最新的观点明确"3600不是终点"。 与此同时，近期，各券商举办的路演，"牛市"也成为关键词。据进门财经，7月以来（截至7月28日）， 券商举办的各类以"牛市"（也包括商品牛市）为关键词 ...

截至2025年7月28日 09:56，中证A500指数上涨0.25%，成分股光迅科技10cm涨停，兴森科技上涨9.29%，胜宏科技上涨8.36%，恒瑞医药上涨6.35%，金发科 技上涨5.98%。A500ETF嘉实(159351)红盘蓄势。 A500ETF嘉实紧密跟踪中证A500指数，中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动性较好的500只证券作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证 券的整体表现。 数据显示，截至2025年6月30日，中证A500指数前十大权重股分别为贵州茅台、宁德时代、中国平安、招商银行、兴业银行、长江电力、美的集团、紫金矿 业、比亚迪、东方财富，前十大权重股合计占比20.67%。 申万宏源证券指出，目前阶段，时间已经是牛市的朋友，因为时间是基本面改善和增量资金流入的朋友。反内卷显著提升了2026年中游制造供需格局改善的 可见度。远期有困境反转预期的情况下，2025年下半年经济验证承压可能只会带来短期波折。居民全面增配权益的条件仍有欠缺，但赚钱效应已加速累积。 A股全面增量博弈的时间可能提前。 华泰证券表示，当前交易性资金热度仍在、政策窗口期临近下，市场或仍偏强运行，底部升高，高位 ...

一、证监会停止降温牛市！A股三大指数继续高歌猛进，上证指数站上3600点。但一片欢腾之下，股东减持的步伐也在加速！但是，当股东们默契地按下了 收割键，这是否会给股市降降温？ 5月，403家公司的765位股东计划减持；6月，377家公司的727位股东计划减持。而如今才过去3个月，市场已经是另一番景象，关税战没有吓到A股，反而 走出了漂亮的慢牛行情。更是突破了久违的3600点，上次见到3600点还是在2024年。 对于指数而言，下周初如果再次冲高届时大概率会背驰，构筑一个短线高点，所以下周需要注意指数可能会有一次剧烈波动，那么操作上就要注意指数再有 新高的时候别去胡乱追涨了，中线可以简单点。 只要大盘指数和手里的个股位于5日线上方，无论如何都可以不考虑见顶，该持有还是持有。如果某日跌破5日线，并出顶分型，预计也会走个复合顶部，所 以不用一次性都出，而是分批减仓，这样可以出在相对高位。 三、市场全天震荡调整，三大指数小幅下跌。 两市全天成交额1.79万亿，较上个交易日缩量574亿。涨跌家数基本相当。板块方面，芯片股集体爆发，寒武纪涨超10%。AI应用股表现活跃，因赛集团 20CM涨停。 指数方面延续慢牛节奏，只要不 ...