Q&A "十五五"规划建议首提"能源强国"，关注氢能和聚变能 未来产业发展 20251217 摘要 中国致力于建设能源强国，核心在于保障能源供给安全和推动能源结构 的生态低碳转型，降低对外依存度。 截至 2024 年，中国煤炭消费占比约为 53%，可再生能源占比约为 29%。目标是到 2035 年新能源装机容量提升至 36 亿千瓦，年均增速 达 200GW，显示出新能源发展的巨大潜力。 当前电力系统面临尖峰时刻供给紧张和总体电量宽松并存的挑战，导致 电价下降，需解决新能源波动对电网的冲击问题。 非电领域提高可再生能源比例的途径包括：可再生能源供热制冷、利用 绿色氢氨醇、生物质能等。电动车普及和可再生燃料如甲醇的应用也在 交通运输领域发挥作用。 氢能和核聚变被列为中国未来六大重点发展的新兴产业之一，氢能可用 于冶炼、燃料电池及生产绿氨和甲醇，核聚变被视为终极清洁能源，中 国已建立多个实验平台。 AI 技术的发展将促进核聚变技术的进步，两者相辅相成，共同推动科技 进步，为能源转型提供长期解决方案。 绿色千村论坛对 2026 年绿色乡村发展表示乐观，研究所成立核聚变产 业链研究组，表明政策支持和技术创新将推动中国在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Annual Meeting of the Clean Air Policy Partnership (CCAPP) and the seminar on Hainan's "14th Five-Year Plan" for leading air quality and low-carbon development strategies highlighted the importance of collaborative governance in carbon reduction and pollution control during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1][2]. Group 1: Achievements and Challenges - Over the past decade, China has made historic achievements in ecological and environmental protection, with economic growth and air quality improvement progressing in tandem, yet structural and trend-related pressures remain [1][2]. - The current improvements in air quality are not stable, necessitating a focus on three areas during the "14th Five-Year Plan": fundamental structural changes in industry, energy, and transportation; comprehensive pollution reduction across key sectors; and the establishment of a management system for air quality with Chinese characteristics [2][5]. Group 2: Hainan's Role and Strategy - Hainan, as China's largest economic special zone and free trade port, is committed to ecological preservation and the strategic goal of becoming a low-carbon island, leveraging its ecological resources and reform platform to achieve collaborative governance of carbon neutrality and clean air [3][4]. - The province aims to enhance cooperation with CCAPP partners to explore unique pathways for collaborative development, showcasing China's ecological civilization achievements [3][4]. Group 3: Policy Implementation and Future Directions - The former chief engineer of the Ministry of Ecology and Environment emphasized the need to address uncertainties in policy implementation affecting carbon and pollution reduction, suggesting measures such as strict control of new coal consumption and promoting clean energy alternatives [5]. - The importance of aligning air quality improvement with carbon peak and Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) goals was highlighted, advocating for a structured approach to air quality enhancement across regions [5].

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯 12月17日，科华数据在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司以"以智慧电能驱动低碳数 字未来"为使命，致力成为全球卓越的智慧电能解决方案提供商。公司充分把握国家"人工智能+""数字 经济""碳中和"等战略机遇及全球能源转型趋势，以电力电子技术为核心，在"智算中心""智慧电能""清 洁能源"三大领域持续融合创新，积极开拓市场。公司将持续努力做好经营回报投资者。 ...

证券日报网12月17日讯 博盈特焊在12月17日回答调研者提问时表示，首先，美国电力需求的结构性增 长构成HRSG的市场基本盘。在人工智能数据中心集群的迅猛扩张、美国制造业回流带来的工业用电负 荷攀升，以及电动汽车充电桩普及等因素的推动下，美国电网负荷达到新高。美国燃气轮机的市场需求 显著提升。作为燃气轮机的核心换热设备，HRSG能够高效回收燃气轮机排放的高温废气，同时产生蒸 汽，驱动二次发电，提升电厂的发电效率，成为满足美国市场电力需求的可靠技术选择。其次，能源清 洁化转型的需求，进一步提升HRSG的市场空间。在美国持续推进碳中和目标的背景下，天然气作为低 碳过渡能源的地位日益凸显。相较于煤电，燃气发电的碳排放强度显著降低。HRSG通过提升燃气轮机 的整体发电效率，间接降低每度电的碳排放和废气排放，满足美国能源清洁化转型的需求。 （编辑 任世碧） ...

Report Title - "National Carbon Market: One Thing Gains While Another Loses, Aftershocks Still Linger — Outlook for the Annual Market of the National Carbon Market in 2026" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views of the Report - The macro - emission reduction target will provide an important reference for the downward adjustment path of the power generation industry's quota benchmark value. If 2025 is the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [2]. - The supply capacity of CCER will continue to expand in 2026, which will weaken the upward driving force of carbon prices. The total supply of "new supply + inventory" of CCER in 2026 is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA" in 2026, key emission units may use CCER on a large scale to replace quotas or fill compliance gaps [3]. - In 2026, the market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited. Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [3]. - The annual strategy is to go long on dips below 70 yuan/ton and take profit above 90 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 2025 Review Carbon Price Breakdown and Limited Rebound - In 2025, the price of China's national carbon market carbon emission allowances (CEA) showed a downward trend, with the price center shifting down by about 35% year - on - year. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of the whole market was about 61.48 yuan/ton, a year - on - year decline of about 35%. The price trend can be divided into three stages: sharp decline in the first three quarters, a sharp drop and then a rebound in October, and a rise and then a fall in mid - November [8]. - The older the year - label of the quota, the firmer the quota price. As of December 5, 2025, the average transaction price of CEA24 was the lowest at about 59.04 yuan/ton, while CEA19 - 20 had the highest average transaction price at 75.13 yuan/ton [13] Nearly 9% Annual Turnover Rate and Increased Share of Listing Transactions - Thanks to "advance allocation" and "quota carry - over", the market trading activity continued to improve. As of December 5, 2025, the cumulative trading volume was about 194.23 million tons, the cumulative turnover was about 11.9 billion yuan, and the annual turnover rate was nearly 9%. The cumulative trading volume increased by about 53% year - on - year, and the turnover rate increased by 5.3 percentage points [15]. - Bulk agreement transactions still dominated, but the share of listing agreement transactions increased significantly, rising by about 11 percentage points year - on - year. The one - way call auction trading introduced in July was relatively inactive due to the rule setting and the market decline [17][19]. - CEA24 was the main trading target in 2025, accounting for about 71% of the trading volume as of December 5, 2025 [19] Four Key Policy Nodes Affected Market Trading Rhythm - The "rectification and volume increase" expectation in February was falsified as the 2023 compliance completion rate was high. The release of the expansion plan in March led to the release of forced - circulation quotas. The pre - allocation of quotas in April and the stable recovery of carbon prices doubled the market trading scale. The final allocation of quotas in August led to the largest concentrated trading volume of the year. The release of the quota plan for newly - included industries in November increased the potential demand, but the actual procurement demand was limited [21][24][25] 2026 Supply - Demand Outlook Power Generation Industry: Disassembling Macro - Emission Reduction Targets to Anchor the Downward Adjustment Path of Benchmark Values - China's attitude towards achieving the 2030 intensity target is relatively prudent, leaving room for policy adjustment. When setting the 2035 emission target, China took a relatively cautious attitude, leaving necessary strategic space for the implementation of the 2030 intensity target [33]. - Assuming 2025 as the peak - year, the average annual emission reduction rate of carbon dioxide from 2026 to 2035 needs to reach about 0.7% - 1.0%. In the neutral power generation growth scenario, the power generation emission intensity in 2026 needs to be reduced by at least about 1.1% - 1.4% compared with 2025. The estimated quota gap rate of the power generation industry in 2025 may expand to about 1.1% - 1.4%, corresponding to an annual gap of about 0.6 - 0.7 billion tons [38][39][44] CCER: Expanding Supply Capacity and Weakening the Upward Driving Force of Carbon Prices - The CCER market restarted in January 2022, but the project development rhythm was slower than expected in the early stage due to factors such as methodological disputes and the slowdown of project review and verification by the regulatory authorities [45]. - The CCER supply in 2025 was about 15 million tons, and about 5 million tons were used for 2024 compliance. The estimated market surplus at the end of 2025 was about 10 million tons [47][49]. - It is estimated that the new supply of CCER in 2026 will be 15 - 22.5 million tons, and the total supply of "new supply + inventory" is expected to reach about 25 - 32.5 million tons. If the CCER price returns to the normal range of "discount to CEA", it may significantly weaken the annual supply - demand contradiction in the national carbon market [52][53] 2026 Market Outlook - In 2026, the quota gap in the power generation industry may expand, but it will be partially offset by the increase in CCER supply. The market will continue to digest the past quota surpluses, but the decline in surpluses is limited [55]. - In the first half of 2026, the market may be in a "near - stagnant" state. The carry - over rule will still have a residual impact on the market, and the market confidence needs to be restored before the introduction of new policies [55][56]. - Under the existing policies, the carbon price is expected to rise moderately, but it is difficult to return to the historical high. If new policies can give the market a clear expectation of the emission reduction path, the carbon price is expected to break through the historical high [58]

Group 1: Company Overview and Competitive Advantages - The company focuses on special equipment manufacturing, particularly anti-corrosion and anti-wear welding equipment, with applications in energy, chemical, metallurgy, and paper industries [1] - It possesses key core technologies across materials, processes, and equipment, along with comprehensive production qualifications, including national and international certifications [1] - The management team has extensive industry experience and a stable core technical staff, contributing to the company's competitive edge [2] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The demand for waste incineration is increasing due to national strategies promoting ecological civilization and waste reduction, leading to a need for upgrading existing incinerators [4] - The coal-fired power generation sector is showing a demonstration effect, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The company is strategically expanding into overseas markets, with a focus on establishing subsidiaries to capture international opportunities [2] Group 3: Technology and Innovation - The company employs three welding techniques: MIG, TIG, and laser welding, each suited for different industrial applications [3] - Continuous R&D efforts have led to innovations in digital pulse MIG high-frequency oscillation welding technology, enhancing efficiency and stability [3] - The company is developing advanced technologies in laser welding and secondary remelting, broadening its application scope [3] Group 4: Specific Market Insights - The domestic waste incineration market is characterized by both stock and incremental demand, driven by urbanization and the need for modern facilities [4] - The global oil and gas pipeline market is experiencing structural growth, with increasing demand for composite pipelines due to challenges in oil and gas extraction [5] - The HRSG (Heat Recovery Steam Generator) equipment is primarily compatible with heavy-duty gas turbines, providing a competitive cost advantage over international counterparts [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The HRSG market in the U.S. is expected to grow due to structural increases in electricity demand and the transition to cleaner energy sources [8] - The company is positioned to benefit from the rising demand for HRSG as it enhances the efficiency of gas turbines, contributing to lower carbon emissions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to become a regional comprehensive energy supply center and carbon neutrality center, focusing on carbon reduction through efficiency improvements and coupling carbon reduction measures [2] Group 1: Company Developments - The company has set a development goal to establish a regional public utility cogeneration enterprise with scale advantages and carbon emission intensity comparable to natural gas units [2] - Specific measures for carbon reduction include efficiency improvements through new unit expansions and technological upgrades, as well as coupling carbon reduction by increasing the proportion of solid waste and biomass fuel [2] - The company has launched a "three-dimensional virtual power plant" system to enhance operational efficiency and reliability through real-time data collection and analysis [2][3] Group 2: Financial Performance - As of September 30, the company reported a revenue of 529 million yuan for the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 18.48%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 91.83 million yuan, an increase of 2.51% [8] - The company has distributed a total of 344 million yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 204 million yuan distributed over the past three years [9] Group 3: Market Activity - On December 17, the company's stock price increased by 0.71%, with a trading volume of 26.02 million yuan and a turnover rate of 0.77%, bringing the total market capitalization to 3.405 billion yuan [1] - The main capital inflow for the day was 676,700 yuan, accounting for 0.03% of the total, indicating unclear trends in major capital movements [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the importance of assessing the progress and challenges of carbon neutrality and clean air in China, which is essential for fulfilling international commitments and promoting high-quality domestic development [1] Air Pollution and Climate Change - Ozone (O3) concentration is showing a fluctuating upward trend, with VOCs reduction efforts being insufficient and global warming contributing to increased heatwave days, which are potential reasons for inadequate ozone pollution control [2] - The PM2.5 pollution in 2020 was most severe in cities concentrated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and surrounding areas, with a projected overall concentration decrease to 50μg/m³ by 2024 [2] - The distribution of O3 pollution has changed, with new pollution centers emerging in eastern Hubei province, and the overall situation worsening in 2024, particularly in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and Fenwei Plain [2] Governance System and Practices - China is gradually establishing a multi-departmental collaborative governance system that includes administrative, economic, and social governance methods, although challenges remain, particularly in high carbon emission cities where PM2.5 pollution is more severe [3] Structural Transformation and Governance Technology - The trend in fossil energy consumption is diverging, with a slowdown in coal consumption growth and a decrease in coal power approvals since the 14th Five-Year Plan began, although chemical industry output growth remains a major factor for industrial coal consumption [4] - Advanced manufacturing and digital industries are driving rapid growth in electricity demand, while carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technologies are developing quickly, with significant milestones achieved in various aspects [4] Atmospheric Composition Sources and Reduction Pathways - From 2020 to 2024, human-induced carbon dioxide emissions increased by 15.4%, posing significant pressure on achieving the carbon reduction targets of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a cumulative carbon intensity reduction of approximately 7.8% by 2024 compared to 2020 [5] - The stability of terrestrial carbon sinks has been maintained during the 14th Five-Year Plan, but the annual growth rate has slowed, necessitating scientific forest management to sustain carbon sink growth [5] Health Impacts and Synergistic Benefits - The number of deaths attributed to PM2.5 exposure is decreasing, but there has been no significant improvement in deaths related to ozone pollution, with extreme weather events from climate change severely impacting public health [6] - Collaborative governance is expected to yield significant health benefits, requiring further efforts in areas such as integrating clean energy use, building energy efficiency, and improving indoor air quality into pollution reduction policies [6]

碳中和50ETF（159861）涨超1.7%，储能需求与固态电池进展引关注。 招商证券指出，储能需求爆发带动传统锂电扩产加速，政策驱动下国内新能源配储需求提升，2027年全 国新型储能装机目标1.8亿千瓦，海外市场如北美、欧洲及东南亚需求持续增长，数据中心等新场景也 催生配储需求。固态电池产业化持续推进，固固界面问题是核心难点，产业链通过引入碘离子、等静压 设备迭代、ALD技术等解决方案推动工艺成熟，预计2025年底至2026年初开启中试线招标。2025年锂 电设备板块景气复苏，储能需求接力驱动行业回暖，固态电池商业化进程加速将打开设备百亿市场空 间，设备环节有望率先受益。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 碳中和50ETF（159861）跟踪的是环保50指数（930614），该指数从沪深市场中选取在环境保护、清洁 能源等领域表现突出的50家上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映绿色经济相关行业的整体表现。环保50 指数覆盖了污染治理、节能服务、新能源开发等多个细分领域，旨在为关注可持续发展和绿色投资的投 资者提供参考。 ...

Group 1 - The ETF market showed mixed performance on December 17, with the carbon neutrality ETF leading the gains at 4.55% [1] - The ChiNext 50 ETF by Harvest increased by 1.86% [1] - The Agricultural 50 ETF rose by 1.48% [1] Group 2 - The Brazilian ETFs experienced declines, with one dropping by 3.54% and another by 3.38% [1] - The telecommunications ETF fund decreased by 2.23% [1]