美联储理事沃勒表示，美联储应在本月开始降息，并在未来数月内进行多次下调，但他对降息的具体节 奏持开放态度，认为这将取决于未来的经济数据。 沃勒周三接受采访时称，"我们需要在下次会议上开始降息"。他补充说，降息不必遵循"固定的步调"， 政策制定者可以"观察事态的发展"。他预计，"在未来三到六个月内，我们可能会看到多次降息"。 沃勒的表态正值美联储官员努力应对关税可能带来的经济冲击，同时劳动力市场也显现出疲软迹象。近 期经济数据的修正指向就业增长急剧放缓，而服务业价格上涨则使通胀率持续高于美联储2%的目标。 此前，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔的讲话中已为本月晚些时候的会议降息打开了大门，他指出失业 率飙升的风险正在增加。沃勒的观点与鲍威尔的最新表态相呼应，进一步明确了美联储内部对启动降息 的考量。 降息节奏与幅度取决于数据 对于降息的路径，沃勒表示，虽然方向是明确的，但速度和最终幅度将依据数据而定。他认为，当前的 政策利率仍高于既不刺激也不抑制经济的"中性利率"水平： "我们知道我们希望朝中性利率靠拢，我们大致知道可能需要降息多少，比如说100或150个 基点。但我们多快能达到那个水平，将取决于未来的数据。" 他 ...

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that interest rate cuts should be considered in the next meeting, indicating the possibility of multiple rate cuts without adhering to a fixed sequence [1] Group 1 - Waller emphasizes the need for potential interest rate reductions in upcoming Federal Reserve meetings [1] - The statement implies flexibility in the approach to rate cuts, allowing for adjustments based on economic conditions rather than a predetermined order [1]

Group 1 - COMEX gold prices reached a historic high of $3616.9 per ounce, with an increase of over 7.5% since August [1] - Several gold ETFs, such as Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF and Guotai CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF, have also reached new net asset value highs [1] Group 2 - The fund manager of Yongying CSI Hong Kong and Shanghai Gold Industry Stock ETF noted that Jerome Powell's dovish remarks at the Jackson Hole global central bank meeting have led the market to interpret a potential interest rate cut in September [3] - Huashan Fund indicated that the high levels of U.S. debt and interest costs are prompting President Trump to seek interest rate cuts to alleviate the debt burden [3] - Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve have arisen following Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook, which may impact market sentiment [3] - Huashan Fund also highlighted that the current "high interest rates + high debt" scenario results in significant interest costs for U.S. government debt, maintaining risks related to U.S. Treasury and dollar credit [3] - There is an expectation that global central banks may continue to increase gold holdings while reducing dollar assets to diversify foreign exchange reserves, making gold's future performance promising [3]

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts, leading to a surge in international risk aversion and gold prices stabilizing above $3,500 [1] - Following Powell's comments, gold prices rose significantly from a low of $3,311 on August 20 to a peak of $3,546, marking an increase of over 7% [1] - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on September 17, indicating a recognition of recession risks in the macroeconomic environment [1] Group 2 - U.S. stock indices experienced a gap down due to a court ruling that may invalidate Trump's tariff policies, which could severely impact economic confidence [2] - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report for August is expected to show weak job growth, with a forecast of 75,000 new jobs, which could negatively affect the U.S. dollar index [2] - If non-farm employment falls below 100,000, it typically results in a bearish impact on the dollar index, regardless of whether the latest figure exceeds previous expectations [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the recent upward movement has broken the converging triangle structure established since April 22, with significant price action confirming the breakout [4] - The current price is fluctuating around $3,530, approaching a resistance zone of $3,546 to $3,568, which may encounter strong selling pressure [4]

Group 1: Gold Market Insights - Analysts from Philip Nova predict that gold prices may reach the range of $3600 to $3900 per ounce in the coming months if spot gold continues to break above $3500, driven by geopolitical risks and strong ETF demand [1] Group 2: Currency Market Analysis - Dutch bank analysts suggest that the recent decline of the US dollar may be limited, with potential for a rebound in the coming months as the market has already priced in interest rate cuts [2] - Analysts from Mitsubishi UFJ state that the political situation in France is unlikely to disrupt the upward trend of the euro, as market participants remain optimistic despite political turmoil [4] - Dutch bank analysts note that the euro's recent performance indicates that market participants do not believe the political situation in France will shake the euro's upward trend [4] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - Analysts from Dutch International highlight that the risk in oil prices lies in OPEC+'s decision to potentially re-implement production cuts, with Brent crude oil prices recently rising above $68 per barrel [3] Group 4: A-Share Market Trends - CITIC Securities reports that the A-share market is entering a mild recovery phase, with a structural shift towards growth sectors driven by AI and domestic substitution [6] - CITIC Securities also sees potential bottom-fishing opportunities in the white liquor industry, despite recent declines in revenue and profit due to reduced demand [7] Group 5: Investment Opportunities in Utilities - Huatai Securities suggests focusing on state-owned electric utility companies with low asset securitization ratios, as capital operations may enhance dividend payouts [8]

ATFX贵金属：鲍威尔暗示降息，国际避险情绪陡升，黄金站稳3500美元。美联储主席鲍威尔在8月份的杰克逊霍尔央行年会上表示："今 年劳动力增长已大幅放缓，可能需要调整我们的政策立场"。此番讲话被市场解读为鲍威尔暗示将会降息。9月17日，美联储将公布最新一 期利率决议，主流预期认为将降息25基点。昨日黄金大涨，市价从3470美元涨破3500美元关口，今日最高触及最高3546美元，创出历史新 高，累计涨幅超2%，金价有效站稳在3500美元重要关口。 ▲ATFX图 正是从鲍威尔暗示降息开始，黄金出现单边涨势。8月20日，伦敦金跌至阶段性低点3311美元，随后开始上涨，今日最高触及3546美元，累 计涨幅超过7%，远超市场预期。一旦美联储开始降息，意味着官方承认宏观经济存在衰退风险，需要降低利率以提振经济。市场资金从股 市转向避险市场。 技术角度看，日线级别，4月22日以来的收敛三角形结构已经被最新的上涨波段破坏。8月27日K线上破三角形上轨，28日长阳线确认有效 突破，随后迎来连续四个交易日的大幅拉升。最新市价在3530美元附近波动，距离下一个阻力区间3546~3568（对应2.382~2.618的黄金分 割区域） ...

Core Viewpoint - The Jackson Hole meeting highlighted a shift in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy focus towards employment risks, with potential interest rate cuts anticipated if inflation data does not significantly rise [2][3]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - Powell's speech indicated a more dovish stance, emphasizing rising unemployment risks in a weak labor market [2]. - Concerns about tariffs affecting inflation were downplayed, suggesting that price changes are likely to be temporary rather than persistent [2]. - The Fed's dual mandate of maintaining employment and inflation stability is now leaning more towards addressing employment risks [2]. Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The likelihood of interest rate cuts in September is high if inflation data remains stable, with futures indicating more than two rate cuts by year-end [2]. - The relationship between short-term rate cuts and long-term Treasury yields is complex, as short-term cuts do not guarantee a decrease in long-term rates [3]. - Historical precedents show that rate cuts can occur alongside rising long-term yields, as seen in 1995 and 1998 during soft landing scenarios [3]. Group 3: Economic Context - The expansion of the fiscal deficit and increased government power are trends that may lead to higher credit risk premiums for long-term rates [3]. - The current economic outlook remains positive, with households in good financial shape and corporations benefiting from tax cuts and lower rates [3].

分析师表示，如果美联储本月下调利率，将提振以柴油这一"主力燃料"为动力的工业活动，柴油价格的 夏季涨势可能会延续至秋季。 上月美联储主席鲍威尔释放出愿意降息的信号后，基金经理对柴油的看涨情绪达到四周以来的最高水 平。这一现象凸显出，在关注宏观经济的投资者眼中，柴油作为押注经济走向的"首选标的"，其重要性 正不断上升。自5月初以来，受全球供应短缺和炼油厂停产影响，柴油价格已上涨约20%，涨幅超过原 油和汽油，同时也吸引了新一批投机者的关注。 "相比过去两三年，本轮柴油价格对货币政策的敏感度明显提升，"Vortexa美洲市场分析主管Samantha Hartke指出，"部分原因在于新投资者的大量涌入。" 据CME美联储观察工具显示，目前投资者预计美联储下月降息25个基点的概率已达92%。 与之形成对比的是，投机者对美国原油期货的看涨头寸处于近20年来的最低水平，这一迹象表明，利率 预期与原油及其他燃料价格之间的关联正逐渐减弱。近期原油纸货市场交易量低迷，原因是交易商在夏 季选择按兵不动，等待欧佩克+恢复产量计划所引发的供应过剩局面成为现实。 相反，Bridgeton Research Group的数据显示，往往会 ...

Group 1 - The New York Fed's Williams and San Francisco Fed's Daly have signaled a dovish stance on interest rates, suggesting they are in a "moderately restrictive" range [1] - The market is pricing in a high probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, aligning with Trump's demands but driven by different motivations [1] - The fiscal burden of $37 trillion in debt is increasing, with interest payments becoming heavier, and the housing market struggling under high rates, prompting the White House to seek quicker action [1] Group 2 - The central bank's focus remains on dual targets of inflation and employment, rather than short-term political gains [1] - There is a potential path forward by following institutional procedures to replace board members and gradually shift the majority, which is seen as a legitimate approach [1] - Accelerating a reshuffle through "for cause" dismissals may yield short-term effectiveness but risks long-term credibility damage [1]

Core Insights - The latest inflation data indicates that the economic heat in the U.S. has not significantly dissipated, with core price indicators continuing to rise, complicating the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions [1][3] - The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose by 2.9% year-over-year in July, marking the highest level since February, and up 0.1 percentage points from June [1][3] - The core PCE increased by 0.3% month-over-month, while the overall PCE rose by 0.2%, with year-over-year growth at 2.6%, all aligning with market expectations [3] Economic Indicators - Despite high inflation, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut have not diminished, with analysts suggesting that policymakers may focus more on labor market performance [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that if employment data shows weakness, he would support more aggressive rate cuts, signaling a potential easing of monetary policy [3][5] - Morgan Stanley's Chief Economic Strategist, Ellen Zentner, believes there is still a high likelihood of a rate cut in September, as the Fed weighs the risks of persistent inflation against a weakening job market [5] Consumer Behavior - U.S. consumer spending showed resilience, with personal consumption expenditures increasing by 0.5% month-over-month in July, and personal income rising by 0.4%, indicating that purchasing power remains relatively unaffected by rising prices [5] - Service prices increased by 3.6% year-over-year, becoming the main driver of inflation, while goods prices only saw a slight increase of 0.5% [5] - Energy prices decreased by 2.7% year-over-year, which has somewhat alleviated overall inflationary pressures [5] Future Outlook - As the Federal Reserve's next meeting approaches, attention will be focused on upcoming employment and inflation data, which may determine whether the Fed will initiate a rate cut cycle as scheduled [7]