6. 乘联分会：预估6月全国新能源乘用车厂商批发销量126万辆，同比增长29%。 7. 证监会：持续优化股债融资、并购重组等资本市场机制安排，促进要素向最有潜力的领域高效集聚。 国际新闻： 1. 关税-①特朗普：与越南达成贸易协议，越南市场将对美国全面开放；越南将向美国支付20%的关 金十数据整理：昨日今晨重要新闻汇总（7月3日） 国内新闻： 1. 欧盟委员会主席冯德莱恩会见王毅。王毅说，即将举行的中欧领导人会晤是关键节点举行的一次重要 会晤。 2. 8月1日起，现金买黄金超10万元将需上报。 3. 今年上半年A股新开户1260万户，同比增长32.77%。 4. 香港特区政府公布"粤车南下"初步实施阶段，每日配额100辆车。 5. 广州"商转公贷款"政策征求意见：个贷率低于75%时启动商转公贷款。 7. 美国6月ADP就业人数录得-3.3万人，预期9.5万人，前值3.7万人。美国6月挑战者企业裁员人数录得 4.7999万人，为2024年12月以来新低。 税，且对任何转运货物征收40%的关税。②越南国家媒体：美国将大幅削减多种越南产品的关税。 2. 美联储巴尔金：目前没有改变政策的紧迫性。 3. 英国央行货币政 ...

Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a historic high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell slightly by 10.52 points, or 0.02%, closing at 44,484.42 points [1] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 190.24 points, or 0.94%, closing at 20,393.13 points [1] - Datadog (DDOG.US) will be added to the S&P 500 index, replacing Juniper Networks, leading to a post-market surge of over 9% for Datadog [1] Employment Data - The ADP employment report for June showed a significant decrease of 33,000 jobs, far below the expected increase of 95,000, marking the largest monthly decline since April 2020 [1] Company News - Tesla (TSLA.US) reported a 13.5% year-over-year decline in global vehicle deliveries for Q2, with total sales of 384,122 units, below analyst expectations of 387,000 units [6] - Microsoft (MSFT.US) announced layoffs of approximately 9,000 employees, affecting less than 4% of its global workforce [7] - Google (GOOG.US) proposed new adjustments to its search results to mitigate potential antitrust fines from the EU [7] Stock Ratings - Jefferies upgraded Apple (AAPL.US) from "Underperform" to "Hold" [8]

在ADP数据公布后，美国联邦基金期货将7月降息的可能性从数据公布前的约20%提高至27.4%。 ...

渣打银行分析师Geoff Kendrick在一份报告中表示，随着比特币ETF和企业财务购买量的增加，比特币 可能在今年下半年达到历史新高。他说，第二季度这些资金流入总额为24.5万美元，第三和第四季度可 能会超过这一水平。如果特朗普提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，比特币也会上涨，因为这可能促 使市场更快地定价更多的降息。美国可能通过的稳定币法案也将支持比特币。渣打预计，比特币价格将 在第三季度升至13.5万美元，到年底升至20万美元。 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - The current gold price is around $3340 per ounce, with a significant increase of 1.1% on the previous day, closing at $3338.70 per ounce after a rise of $35.99 [1] - The market is anticipating the ADP employment data, which is expected to influence gold prices significantly [1] - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that more economic data is needed before initiating monetary easing, but did not rule out the possibility of a rate cut in July, which could enhance gold's appeal as it does not yield interest [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold - The recent upward trend in gold prices suggests a potential short-selling opportunity, as the market has seen a significant number of short positions being liquidated [2] - The critical resistance level for gold is identified at $3358, while a support level is noted at $3326, with a potential downward movement towards $3300 if the support is breached [4] Group 3: Oil Market Analysis - Current oil prices are stable, with WTI at $65.42 per barrel and Brent at $67.09 per barrel, reflecting a cautious balance among multiple market factors [5] - The market is closely monitoring OPEC+ supply plans and U.S. economic data, which are pivotal in shaping oil price movements [5] - The upcoming OPEC+ meeting on July 6 and potential Fed rate cuts are key variables that could influence future oil prices [5] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Oil - The medium-term outlook for oil remains bullish, with a potential upward test towards $78, although short-term momentum indicators suggest a high-level consolidation phase [6] - The recommended trading strategy for oil includes buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with resistance levels at $68.0-$69.0 and support levels at $64.5-$63.5 [6]

英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：我认为2025年需要有五次降息。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of England's monetary policy committee member Taylor suggests that interest rates may need to be cut five times by 2025, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy direction [1] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Taylor anticipates a need for five interest rate cuts by 2025, reflecting concerns over economic conditions [1] - The neutral interest rate is expected to be around 2.75% to 3%, which may influence future monetary policy decisions [1] Group 2: Energy Prices Impact - The impact of energy prices remains a significant unknown factor, which could affect inflation and economic stability [1]

智通财经7月2日电，英国央行货币政策委员泰勒称，其认为2025年需要有5次降息。 ...

英国央行货币政策委员泰勒：我不认为需要或希望进行更大幅度的降息。 ...

Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates three interest rate cuts within the year and five by the end of 2026, according to CME's FedWatch tool[3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut pace may be more complex than the market's linear expectations due to unaccounted input inflation from a weaker dollar[4] - A 10% depreciation of the dollar could increase U.S. imports to approximately $3.6 trillion and widen the trade deficit beyond $1.2 trillion, raising inflationary pressures[4] Group 2: Inflation Dynamics - Historical data indicates that a declining dollar often leads to increased input inflation, which may have a lagging effect on prices[5] - The U.S. CPI year-on-year low point likely occurred in April or May, with expectations for inflation to rise above 3% by year-end if monthly CPI growth remains around 0.2%[5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation may take time to manifest, complicating the inflation outlook further[4] Group 3: Demand Response to Rate Cuts - Rate cuts may not stimulate demand as effectively as anticipated, as evidenced by the slow recovery in the Eurozone despite over 200 basis points of cuts since 2024[6] - The wealth effect from rate cuts could differ this time, as a significant portion of U.S. Treasury bonds is now held by the private sector, potentially dampening the positive impact on asset values[6] - If the Fed's rate cuts are insufficient, the net financial cost for companies may actually increase, countering the intended benefits of lower rates[7]