Group 1 - The market showed a positive trend last week, with major indices rising, particularly the ChiNext Index leading the gains [2] - Economic recovery is expected to continue in the second quarter, supported by a gradual improvement in exports following tariff reductions [3] - The manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5% in May, indicating a slight recovery in production and demand [3] Group 2 - Domestic demand is anticipated to become the core driver of economic growth in the second half of the year, especially as real estate sales show signs of weakness [4] - Government bond issuance has accelerated, with net financing reaching 6.4 trillion yuan from January to May, exceeding the same period last year by 3.7 trillion yuan [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with May non-farm payrolls increasing by 139,000, surpassing expectations [5] Group 3 - The employment data in the U.S. alleviates recession concerns and supports the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on interest rates [5] - The overall economic environment is stabilizing, with limited downside risks due to the gradual recovery and support from policies [7] - Short-term market sentiment may be positively influenced by upcoming discussions between U.S. and Chinese leaders [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the financial market, focusing on the impact of U.S. tariff policies, domestic fiscal policies, and market performance indicators, highlighting both opportunities and uncertainties in investment strategies. Group 1: Tariff Events and Market Impact - The U.S. International Trade Court ruled that Trump's tariff actions under the IEEPA were illegal, leading to an appeal and a temporary stay on tariffs during the appeal process, creating uncertainty in trade policies [4][8] - Despite the ongoing tariff situation, the threat to China's capital market has decreased due to the vulnerabilities exhibited by the U.S. financial market amid rising domestic contradictions [4][8] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Government Financing - The government is focusing on net financing to drive spending growth, with a target of 13.86 trillion yuan for net financing, of which 6.3 trillion yuan has been achieved by the end of May, leaving 7.5 trillion yuan to be issued [5][10] - It is anticipated that government net financing will remain high, with June potentially reaching a historical peak of 1.8 trillion yuan [10][11] Group 3: Market Performance Indicators - The equity risk premium for the CSI 300 index was recorded at 6.81 at the end of May, remaining above the historical mean by one standard deviation, indicating ongoing market volatility [5][13] - In May 2025, the number of stocks with over 20% gains increased by 156% year-on-year, suggesting a recovery in market profitability, although the potential for further expansion in a volatile market is limited [6][15] Group 4: Market Index Predictions - The Shanghai Composite Index showed a rebound followed by a correction, maintaining support at the 60-day moving average, with pressure expected near the year's high [17] - The CSI 300 index experienced an initial rise but faced adjustments, with technical pressure anticipated due to the loss of support at the half-year line [19]

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - As of June 6, 2025, subway passenger volume growth is 1.39% year-on-year, but down 3.67% month-on-month[1] - Retail sales of passenger cars in May reached 1.93 million units, a 13% increase year-on-year and a 10% increase month-on-month[1] - During the Dragon Boat Festival, the number of travelers increased by 26.6% compared to 2019, while travel income grew by 8.6%[1] Domestic Macro - Supply Side - As of early June, the operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.6 percentage points to 83.54%[1] - The operating rate of rebar production fell to 41.95%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.35 percentage points[2] - The operating rate of pure alkali production increased by 2.19 percentage points to 80.76%[1] Price Performance - As of June 6, 2025, the average wholesale price of pork fell by 0.72% week-on-week, while the average price of 28 monitored vegetables rose by 0.52%[1] - WTI and Brent crude oil prices increased by 1.6% and 3.53% respectively during the week[3] - The PPI showed a mixed trend, with copper prices rising by 3.97% while aluminum prices fell by 0.51%[1] Fiscal and Investment - A total of 176 billion yuan in special government bonds were issued this week, bringing the cumulative issuance to 934 billion yuan[2] - The issuance progress of local special bonds (including debt relief) reached 49.4% as of June 7, 2025[2] - The investment in infrastructure is expected to rise as cement shipment rates and asphalt operating rates recover[2] Economic Data - The US economy is showing signs of slow down, with the ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.5 and non-manufacturing PMI at 49.9 for May[3] - Non-farm employment in the US increased by 139,000 in May, with the unemployment rate slightly rising to 4.24%[3] - The Eurozone's May CPI growth rate decreased to 1.9%, indicating marginal economic improvement[3]

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞、李欣越 联系人 | 李欣越 摘要 美国财政可持续性问题的发酵、日债收益率快速上行等，对市场也造成了阶段性扰动。 1）4月以来，市 场对美债可持续性问题高度关注，减支不及预期、拍卖需求走弱等，均导致美国"股债汇三杀"。2）受寿 险需求走弱等影响，日债利率大幅上行，也对美债等产生了外溢效应。 （二）5月国内市场的焦点？经济步入新旧结构"转换期"，政策组合拳也开始发力 国内方面，经济正步入"旧力量"退坡、"新力量"蓄势的"转换期"。 经济开局良好，但开始出现修复放缓 迹象。结构上"旧力量"在退坡，消费以旧换新放缓、设备更新周期接近结束、房地产修复速度也放缓。 但"新力量"在蓄势，服务业投资回补，地产供给压力也边际好转。 同时，"一揽子金融政策"新闻发布会提振信心，财政也展现出对经济的有力支撑。 一方面，5月7日，央 行、金监局、证监会联合发布会上超预期降准等政策，或在响应政治局会议部署，政策组合拳开始发 力。另一方面，4月广义财政支出增速升至12.9%，对经济形成有力支撑。 （三）6月宏观聚焦的关键？ 海外关注关税等政策变化的不确定性，国内静待宽财政"续力" 6月，海外市场关注关税政策、减税法 ...

Group 1 - Chinese customers have a significantly higher demand for quality experiences compared to the global average, with 92% choosing brands based on expected experiences, far exceeding the global level of 70% [1] - 87% of Chinese customers are willing to pay a premium for better experiences, nearly double the global average of 46%, indicating that enhancing experience quality is crucial for attracting customers and translating into commercial value [1] - Emotional dependence is a core factor for successful customer experiences, with 73% of customers whose experiences meet or exceed expectations developing emotional ties to brands, compared to only 5% for those with unmet expectations [1][2] Group 2 - The primary driving force for customer experience in China is "pleasure," which is more significant than "certainty" and "fairness," reflecting the emotional value that Chinese customers place on their experiences [2] - Key factors enhancing "pleasure" include clear communication (57%), experiences aligning with brand promises (56%), and delivery quality (58%), while "fairness" relies on clear communication (61%) and promise fulfillment (58%) [2] - There is room for improvement in areas such as "control," "certainty," and personalization, as well as ESG aspects in the Chinese market [2] Group 3 - In terms of industry performance, the mobile phone (62%) and banking (61%) sectors in China excel in establishing emotional ties compared to global averages, while insurance (54%) and mobile operators (56%) lag behind [3] - The recommendation willingness (NPS) across various industries in China is higher than the global average, with mobile phones (53%) and banking (58%) showing particularly strong performance [3] - Chinese customers are more reliant on word-of-mouth recommendations for first-time purchase decisions (37% impact) compared to the global average of 23%, and customers acquired through recommendations are more likely to make subsequent recommendations [3] Group 4 - Brands should prioritize optimizing basic experiences such as communication and delivery quality while focusing on differentiated forces like respect and a sense of belonging [4] - Strengthening the emotional value related to "pleasure" and enhancing consistency across all channels are key to building competitive advantages in the Chinese market [4] - Despite the current low trust in AI applications, reasonable optimization could still become a potential breakthrough for experience upgrades [4] Group 5 - Overall, the Chinese customer experience market is characterized by "high expectations, emotional emphasis, and differentiation-driven" features, with brands needing to base their strategies on experience quality and emotional connections to continuously meet dynamic demands [5]

Economic Growth Outlook - Several international investment banks, including Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley, have raised their economic growth forecasts for China in the second half of the year, anticipating a long-term strengthening of the RMB exchange rate [1][3] - Deutsche Bank's chief economist for China, Xu Yi, noted that the combination of loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal policy is expected to support the economy, with a 0.2 percentage point increase in the 2025 economic growth forecast [3] - Morgan Stanley also revised its growth expectations for the next two years, citing reduced urgency for new policies due to easing external shocks, with a focus on stabilizing the economy and emphasizing technological innovation [3] Currency Exchange Rate Predictions - The RMB has appreciated by 2% against the USD this year, but has depreciated by approximately 5% against a trade-weighted basket of currencies [4] - Deutsche Bank predicts that the RMB/USD exchange rate will rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, supported by long-term trade competitiveness [4] - Morgan Stanley expects a moderate appreciation of the RMB against the USD, attributing this to a weakening of the dollar's safe-haven status and increased demand for hedging against currency risk [4] Monetary Policy Insights - Deutsche Bank anticipates that the People's Bank of China will reduce the frequency of interest rate cuts, opting instead for liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts and loan facilities, projecting a policy rate of 1.3% by the end of 2025 [4] - Morgan Stanley forecasts that the decision-makers will utilize existing policy space and quasi-fiscal tools to stimulate the economy, potentially introducing fiscal stimulus of 500 billion to 1 trillion RMB, along with further interest rate cuts of 15-20 basis points and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut [4]

近日，德意志银行、摩根士丹利等多家国际投行发布下半年经济展望，纷纷上调中国2025年经济增速预期，同时预计贸易竞争力有望长期支撑人民币走强。德银研 究预测2025年底人民币兑美元汇率将升至7.0，2026年底进一步升至6.7，维持对美元结构性看跌的观点，并预计美债期限溢价将继续上升。 摩根士丹利全球外汇团队预计，美元将在今明两年继续大幅走弱，背后有三个主要原因：在政策的高度不确定下，"美元的避风港地位"有所降低；全球投资者对美 元资产的汇率风险对冲需求增加；美国经济增长放缓幅度大于其他主要经济体。 上调经济增长预测 早在今年4月，德意志银行中国区首席经济学家熊奕提出看涨离岸人民币，中美贸易关税从峰值回落进一步支持了该预测，同时他认为中国经济增长预测有进一步 上调的空间，鉴于实现全年"5%左右"的增长目标，预计中国将采取更加积极的政策。 近日，熊奕在下半年经济展望报告中表示，中国宽松的货币政策和财政政策的加快有望持续发力，服务业产出和零售表现也展现出韧性，随着中美经贸关系的缓 和，上调中国2025年经济增速预测0.2个百分点。上行风险可能来自为实现5%的增长目标而通过预算调整加大刺激力度，而下行风险则可能源于中 ...

Core Viewpoint - Experts generally expect a rapid issuance of special bonds in the future, with some provinces proposing to complete their annual issuance tasks by the end of June this year [1][7]. Summary by Sections Local Government Debt Issuance Trends - In the first five months of this year, local government bond issuance totaled approximately 43,148 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 53%. However, the issuance in May was about 7,794 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of approximately 14% [1][2]. - The decline in May's issuance is attributed to a high base from the previous year, as the issuance volume was significantly higher in May 2022 compared to the first quarter of that year [2]. Debt Utilization and Characteristics - Of the 43,148 billion yuan issued in the first five months, approximately 20,000 billion yuan were new bonds, a year-on-year increase of about 37%, while refinancing bonds accounted for about 23,000 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 70% [3]. - The rapid issuance of refinancing bonds is aimed at replacing hidden debts, with about 16,300 billion yuan issued for this purpose, significantly higher than the previous year [3][4]. Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment - In the first five months, approximately 16,000 billion yuan of new special bonds were issued, a year-on-year increase of about 41%. The majority of these funds are directed towards infrastructure projects, including municipal and industrial park infrastructure [5]. - The reissuance of land reserve special bonds is expected to stabilize the real estate market and promote healthy development, with about 1,084 billion yuan issued in the first five months [5][6]. Future Issuance Expectations - The issuance of special bonds is anticipated to accelerate in the coming months, with a total of 44,000 billion yuan planned for the year, of which about 16,000 billion yuan has already been issued [7][9]. - Experts predict that the issuance pace may continue to increase, especially as the second quarter progresses and the issuance of long-term special bonds begins [7][9]. Efficiency of Fund Utilization - There are concerns regarding the efficiency of special bond fund utilization, with suggestions for improving project management and selection processes to ensure higher economic returns [8]. - The need for enhanced project planning and management is emphasized to optimize the use of funds and ensure timely repayment of the bonds [8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing conflict between the White House and non-partisan fiscal oversight bodies, highlighting the financial challenges faced by the Trump administration, particularly regarding the allocation of funds for electric vehicle infrastructure and the implications of proposed fiscal policies on the federal deficit [2][5][9]. Group 1: Conflict with GAO - The White House Budget Management Office (OMB) instructed the Department of Transportation to disregard the Government Accountability Office (GAO) recommendations, escalating tensions between the Trump administration and independent regulatory bodies [2][5]. - GAO ruled that the Trump administration's delay in disbursing electric vehicle infrastructure funds was illegal, citing violations of the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 [5][6]. - The White House criticized GAO's motives, claiming it has become a partisan tool, and suggested that the executive branch should not cooperate with GAO's investigations [5][6]. Group 2: Budget Deficit Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the "Big Beautiful Bill" proposed by the Trump administration could increase the federal deficit by trillions of dollars, with estimates of a $1.9 trillion deficit for fiscal year 2025, rising to $2.7 trillion by 2035 [8][9]. - Adjusted deficits are expected to reach 6.1% of GDP by 2035, significantly above the historical average of 3.8% over the past 50 years [9]. - The non-partisan Penn Wharton Budget Model (PWBM) estimated that the proposed legislation could add $2.8 trillion to the deficit over ten years [9]. Group 3: Economic Impact of Proposed Policies - The article notes that the Trump administration's proposed 10% tariffs on imported goods would disproportionately affect low- and middle-income families, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the proposed fiscal measures to mitigate this impact [10]. - The proposed fiscal bill includes new tax cuts, but most benefits are expected to flow to high-income households, raising questions about equity and overall economic impact [10].

Group 1 - The White House and the Government Accountability Office (GAO) are in a dispute over the Trump administration's fiscal policies, particularly regarding the delay of electric vehicle infrastructure funding [1][3] - The GAO ruled that the Trump administration's withholding of funds for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Program (NEVI) was illegal, violating the Congressional Budget and Impoundment Control Act of 1974 [3] - The White House has criticized the GAO's motives, claiming it has become a partisan tool and questioning its legal standing [3][4] Group 2 - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has projected that the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful Bill" could lead to a federal deficit increase of trillions of dollars, contrasting sharply with the White House's claims [1][5] - The CBO estimates that the federal budget deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2025 and increase to $2.7 trillion by 2035, with adjusted deficits projected to be 6.1% of GDP by 2035 [5] - The White House has accused the CBO of using flawed predictive models and being biased towards the Democratic Party, citing a lack of Republican donations among its staff [5][6]