Global Macro - The core conflict between Trump and Powell stems from differing monetary policy ideologies, with Trump advocating for low interest rates while Powell emphasizes data-driven decisions based on economic indicators and inflation targets [1][6][12] - The recent escalation in their dispute has raised concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, particularly as Trump has suggested potential legal grounds for dismissing Powell, which could set a dangerous precedent for political interference in central bank operations [1][12][54] - Despite Trump's pressure for significant interest rate cuts to alleviate government debt burdens, the report argues that such actions may lead to increased long-term interest rates if the market perceives risks to inflation or the Fed's independence [2][13][28] Trump-Powell Dispute - The dispute has evolved from conceptual criticisms to operational threats, with Trump actively seeking to find justification for Powell's dismissal based on the Federal Reserve's renovation project cost overruns [7][12] - Trump's administration has faced multiple legal and political constraints in attempting to dismiss Powell, including the requirement for "just cause" under the Federal Reserve Act, which has never been successfully invoked [33][34] - The potential for a "demotion strategy" to undermine Powell's influence is considered unlikely to succeed, as Powell's term extends until May 2026, and he has demonstrated a commitment to maintaining the Fed's independence [38][39][50] Interest Rate Outlook - The report anticipates that the Federal Reserve will likely refrain from immediate rate cuts, with expectations of 1-2 rate cuts throughout 2025, potentially starting in the fourth quarter [2][20] - Current financial conditions indicate that the policy interest rate is not excessively tight, and the market's response to tariff uncertainties has stabilized, suggesting a return to relatively loose liquidity conditions [21][20] - Trump's claims regarding potential savings from interest rate cuts are questioned, as the long-term cost of financing could outweigh short-term benefits if market confidence in the Fed's independence is undermined [28][34] Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve is crucial for maintaining institutional credibility, which has been built over decades of professional operation and crisis management [54] - Any attempts to weaken this independence could lead to systemic risks that exceed expectations, impacting the stability of the financial system and the broader economy [54] - The report emphasizes that the Fed's independence is not merely a technical arrangement but a fundamental safeguard for financial stability and economic prosperity [54]

东方金诚期货：预计金价将维持高位震荡格局 东方金诚期货在周报中称，美联储独立性扰动市场情绪，上周金价在震荡中小幅回调。本周金价料将延 续高位震荡。一方面，随着美国贸易谈判期限临近，而美国与欧盟等重要贸易伙伴国的谈判前景仍不明 朗，避险情绪回温将对金价构成支撑。但另一方面，美国6月CPI印证关税影响开始显现，未来关税影 响还将进一步扩大，通胀风险将打压美联储年内降息预期，令金价承压。整体上看，预计本周金价将维 持高位震荡格局。 信达期货研报指出，美元走软与贸易风险持续仍为金价提供弹性支撑。但从目前整体市场表现来看，投 资者对政策层面扰动的敏感度已明显减弱，避险驱动带来的涨幅不及前期，显示出当前黄金并无强势单 一推动力，整体驱动多元化。同时，美联储内部对货币政策前景存在分歧，降息路径不确定性未解，政 策连贯性受到政治因素干扰，金融属性仍构成扰动但难以主导走势。中长期来看，美国财政赤字、信用 风险与全球债务问题仍是金价的重要支撑基础，黄金的货币属性逻辑持续稳固。策略上，建议维持日内 逢低做多的滚动操作思路，继续关注每轮调整后的多头布局机会。 方正中期期货策略日报观点认为，预计未来市场对美联储独立性的担忧仍将反复发酵 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets continue to rise, driven by the optimism surrounding the US-Japan trade agreement, which has renewed investor confidence in potential trade deals with more countries [1] - Asian stock markets rose by 1%, supporting global stock indices to reach new highs, with Japan's Topix index hitting a record closing high [1][3] - The US is reportedly close to reaching an agreement with the EU to impose a 15% tariff on most products, which has positively impacted European stock indices [1] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index increased by 1.6%, while the Topix index rose by 1.7%, and the South Korean Composite Index gained 0.2% [3] - The Thai SET index saw its losses widen to 1% amid geopolitical tensions [3] Group 3 - The US dollar index rose slightly by 0.1%, while the Japanese yen strengthened by over 0.1% [4][13] - The Thai baht fell by over 0.4%, retreating from its high since 2022 [4] Group 4 - US Treasury yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield increasing by approximately 1 basis point [5] - Japanese 40-year government bond yields fell by 5.5 basis points to 3.4% [6] Group 5 - Crude oil prices increased by over 1%, with US oil surpassing $66 and Brent oil exceeding $69.40 [7][18] - Spot gold prices fell by over 0.3%, while silver dropped by approximately 0.4% [6]

基本面： 技术面： 周四（7月24日）亚盘时段，现货黄金受制隔夜回吐空间内承压震荡，目前暂交投于3390美元附近。周三（7月23日），黄金市场经历了一场"过山车"行情。 金价在亚市早盘一度冲高至五周高点3438美元/盎司，但随后快速回落，单日跌幅超过1%，最终收于3386.99美元/盎司，较日内高点下跌逾50美元。这一剧 烈波动背后，是美欧关税协议进展、风险资产回暖以及美联储政策不确定性等多重因素的共振。 衡量美元兑日元和欧元等一篮子货币的美元指数下跌0.14%至97.33，有望连续四个交易日下跌。标普500 指数上涨 0.78%，收于 6358.91 点。纳斯达克指数 上涨 0.61%，报 21020.02 点；道琼斯工业指数上涨 1.14%，报45010.29 点，略低于去年12 月4 日创下的最高收盘纪录。美股标普500指数和纳斯达克指数周 三创下收盘新高，受英伟达和GE Vernova上涨带动。与此同时，欧盟与美国似乎正在接近达成一项贸易协议，类似于总统特朗普此前与日本达成的协议。据 两位外交官透露，白宫与欧盟的协议将对进口至美国的欧盟商品普遍征收15%关税可能包括汽车在内。这项税率将仿照美国与日本达 ...

本周二和周三，美国即将公布的关键通胀数据，包括消费者价格指数（CPI）和生产者价格指数（PPI），预示着一场权力博弈的最新"战场"即将开启。如果 核心通胀数据高于预期，无疑将为鲍威尔提供"弹药"，削弱行政部门大幅降息的正当性。反之，若数据走弱，则可能被总统政府用作政治筹码，强化"鲍威 尔无作为，应尽快降息"的叙事。 然而，在通胀数据公布前夕，一封伪造的"辞职信"已如同一声惊雷，提前引爆了这场博弈。社交媒体上流传的美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔的"辞职信"，虽然 被迅速确认为AI合成的粗糙假货，却像一次精准的市场压力测试，瞬间引爆了市场波动，直指美国中央银行的核心——其独立性正面临前所未有的挑战。 一场乌龙背后的深层危机：美国金融秩序的"防火墙"面临系统性侵蚀 要理解这封假信的影响，我们需要回顾此前特朗普政府与美联储之间的紧张关系。早在2017年，鲍威尔由时任总统特朗普亲自任命，成为了美联储的掌舵 人。然而，在随后的几年里，特朗普对鲍威尔未能大幅降息的政策持续表达不满。他不仅公开怒斥美联储"利率太高"，甚至亲自给鲍威尔递交便条，敦 促"大幅降息"。 特朗普对大幅降息的执念，源于他对财政赤字的担忧。他曾公开表示，利率每 ...

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing public criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by President Trump indicates a significant political challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve, with Trump intensifying his attacks on Powell's interest rate policies and suggesting a potential replacement [2][4][10]. Group 1: Trump's Criticism and Strategy - Trump has publicly labeled Powell as a "numbskull" and criticized his appointment as one of his worst decisions, attributing rising housing costs to Powell's refusal to align with the White House's proposed interest rate cuts [4]. - The narrative being constructed by Trump positions Powell as responsible for economic issues, aiming to shift public perception and gain political leverage [4][10]. - Trump's approach this time is more organized and systematic compared to previous confrontations, utilizing various platforms to exert pressure on Powell and the Federal Reserve [8][10]. Group 2: Federal Reserve's Response - Powell has responded to the criticism by asserting the political motivations behind the attacks and emphasizing the non-political nature of the Federal Reserve [8]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a cautious stance in its policy statements, focusing on data-driven decisions to avoid direct confrontation with Trump [11]. - There is an anticipation that the Federal Reserve will seek support from Congress, particularly from Democrats, to reinforce its institutional independence amid the political pressure [11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve's Future - The ongoing conflict suggests a potential shift in the Federal Reserve's leadership, with Trump signaling a desire for a replacement before Powell's term ends in May 2026 [10]. - Possible candidates for Powell's successor include former Fed officials and current economic advisors, indicating a strategic consideration for future leadership [10]. - The current political climate raises concerns about the Federal Reserve's independence, with Trump aiming to intertwine personnel changes with institutional budgetary control [10].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively neutral short - term trend with poor operability on the trading floor [1] - Silver: ★☆★, suggesting a somewhat bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Core Viewpoints - Overnight, precious metals prices rose. Powell's speech did not mention monetary policy, and the conflict between the White House and the Fed has drawn attention to the Fed's independence. Recently, the macro - sentiment has been positive, with commodities rising in rotation, and precious metals have followed this trend. There is still room for the gold - silver ratio to decline. Due to high market uncertainty before the deadline of US tariff policies, risk sentiment is volatile, and precious metals are likely to fluctuate widely, so chasing the market is not advisable [1] Summary by Related Topics Tariff Policies - The US Treasury Secretary stated that August 1st is a "relatively firm deadline" for all countries. EU trade negotiations are separate from Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiations, and Japan's negotiations are progressing smoothly. Canada's Ontario Province is still considering an electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid full - scale US tariffs. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, imposing a 19% tariff on the Philippines, while the Philippines will open its market to the US with zero tariffs. The US announced details of a trade agreement with Indonesia. The Canadian Prime Minister said that a favorable agreement for Canada with the US is "not on the table" [2] Fed and Monetary Policy - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and said there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can. White House officials plan to visit the Fed headquarters on Thursday. Trump believes Powell will soon leave and that interest rates should be cut by 3 percentage points or more. A fake Powell resignation letter circulated on social media. Fed Governor Bowman emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and its responsibility for transparency and accountability [2]

Fundamental Analysis - The trade agreement between the Trump administration and Japan has reduced tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, with Japan committing to invest $550 billion in the U.S. This agreement serves as a template for tariff policies and has led to a rally in Asian stock markets, diminishing the demand for gold as a safe haven [3]. - Concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve have emerged, as a Reuters survey indicates that most economists believe there will be no interest rate cut in July. President Trump has publicly criticized Fed Chairman Powell, raising fears about the Fed's autonomy. If the Fed is forced to cut rates aggressively, it could lead to soaring inflation, which would support gold prices. Currently, the market anticipates a 58% probability of a rate cut in September, resulting in a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments for gold [3]. - Key economic events to watch include the European Central Bank's interest rate decision at 20:15, a press conference by ECB President Lagarde at 20:45, and U.S. initial jobless claims data at 20:30 [3]. Technical Analysis - On the daily chart, gold experienced a significant drop after three consecutive days of gains, forming a bearish engulfing pattern. The recent low is near the 5-day moving average, and the price is currently below this average, indicating a potential weakening trend. Key support levels to monitor are around 3365/3360, with further support at trendline levels of 3334 and 3320 if the decline continues [4]. - On the four-hour chart, after a drop to 3381, gold showed a slight rebound. The price needs to stay above 3381 for a potential upward movement, with resistance levels at 3410, 3417, and 3426/3427, corresponding to Fibonacci retracement levels. If the price declines, support levels to watch are at 3374, 3359, and 3337 [6]. Summary of Key Levels - Support levels to monitor include 3381, 3374, 3365/3359, 3337/3334, and 3320. Resistance levels to watch are 3410, 3417, 3426/3427, and 3438/3439 [7].

本文字数：1845，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 虽然重申不会罢免，美国总统特朗普周三继续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求降低利率，并呼吁美联 储董事会采取行动。 美国财长贝森特则透露，目前不急于确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，候选人可能来自现任联邦公开 市场委员会(FOMC)成员或地区联储主席，同时，鲍威尔也没有决定是否会提前结束美联储理事任 期。 2025.07. 24 美国国会内部和华尔街也对此举可能的后果发出了警告。众议院民主党领袖杰弗瑞斯（Hakeem Jeffries）周三警告称，罢免鲍威尔将"导致美国经济崩溃"。共和党参议员迪丽斯（Thom Tillis） 称，罢免鲍威尔主席将引发一场旷日持久的法律战，并导致美债和美元市场巨震和潜在的经济动荡。 摩根大通首席执行官戴蒙（Jamie Dimon）称，美联储的独立性至关重要。据报道，就连美国财长 贝森特也亲自劝说美国总统不要这么做。 在暂时放弃解雇念头后，特朗普将"炮火"转向了美联储董事会。继上周之后，美国总统再次通过社交 媒体施压："我们的利率应该比现在低三个百分点，每年（作为一个国家）可以为我们节省1万亿美 元。美联储这个固执的家伙就 ...

虽然重申不会罢免，美国总统特朗普周三继续向美联储主席鲍威尔施压，要求降低利率，并呼吁美联储 董事会采取行动。 美国财长贝森特则透露，目前不急于确定美联储主席鲍威尔的继任者，候选人可能来自现任联邦公开市 场委员会(FOMC)成员或地区联储主席，同时，鲍威尔也没有决定是否会提前结束美联储理事任期。 放弃尝试解雇鲍威尔？ 上周二，一则特朗普对解雇鲍威尔的想法持开放态度的消息一度引发市场动荡。美国总统随后很快否认 了这些报道，尽管他对鲍威尔没有降息提出了新的批评。 根据1913年成立美联储的《联邦储备法》规定，美联储理事会成员由总统任命，经参议院批准，任期为 14年，实行交错任期制。只在"有正当理由"的情况下才能被免职——长期以来人们认为"正当理由"指的 是不当行为，而不是政策分歧。 美联储翻修项目意外成为了潜在的突破口。受项目进度缓慢，及物料、人工价格等因素影响，该项目预 算已达到25亿美元，比最初预算多出约6亿美元。第一财经此前曾报道，7月2日联邦住房金融局局长 （FHFA）普尔特（William Pulte）声称，美联储主席鲍威尔在美联储总部建筑翻修时存在渎职行为， 要求开启调查。特朗普盟友、佛罗里达州的共和党 ...