二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 12 月 14 日 国债期货周报 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 虞堪 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 yukan@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 本周国债期货市场短端回暖，超长端微幅回调。TL 合约在周三、周四回暖后，周五高开低走收 阴。 中央经济工作会议召开，货币政策基调未变，未来仍将以支持实体、消费并拉动通胀为主导。但 或采用结构与总量工具并用的方式，降准降息尽管仍有空间但对债市拉动或有限。 中期因央行货币政策相对克制、通胀预期转变、中长期资金入市导向、十五五政策预期无法证伪 等原因，维持大方向看震荡偏空的观点。 风险提示： 货币政策力度不及预期、权益市场情绪超预期、固收产品赎回超预期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 （正文） 1. 周度聚焦与行情跟踪 本周国债期货市场短端回暖，超长端微幅回调。TL 合约在周三、周四回暖后，周五高开低走收 阴，收益率曲线趋平。本周，中央经济工作会议进一步明确了明年经济工作的方向和任务。传统稳增 长领域，重新释放了诸多稳增长信号， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic bond market may have a relatively insufficient preference for duration. The proportion of bonds held by institutions with a preference for longer - duration, such as commercial banks and insurance institutions, has decreased. To support macro - economic stability and control the upward pressure on yields, monetary policy is expected to provide more long - term liquidity [2] - Trump is considering the candidate for the next Fed Chair. His choice of Hassett or Warsh may be interpreted differently by the market in terms of the controllability and independence of monetary policy [2] - Upstream price indicators have further rebounded, with different trends in various commodity prices and real estate transaction data [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 High - Frequency Data Scan - **Domestic Bond Market Situation**: The year - on - year growth rate of the domestic social financing stock in November was 8.5%. The growth rate of government bonds slowed but remained at 18.8%. The year - on - year growth rate of household RMB loans dropped to about 1.1%, while enterprise financing (excluding foreign - currency loans) increased by about 7.8%. Since Q4 last year, the proportion of bonds held by commercial banks and insurance institutions in the inter - bank market bond custody volume has decreased. As of October this year, it was about 69.7%, a decrease of about 3 percentage points from the 2024 high [2] - **International Financial Situation**: The Fed meeting in the week of December 12 fulfilled the interest - rate cut expectation. However, the 10 - year government bond yields of major developed economies mainly increased this week (US Treasury bonds by 5BP, German bonds by 6BP, French bonds by 5BP, Italian bonds by 6BP, and Spanish bonds by 4BP). Trump is considering the next Fed Chair, with Hassett and Warsh as candidates [2] - **Price Index Changes**: The average wholesale price of pork decreased by 0.26% week - on - week and 23.73% year - on - year. The average wholesale price of 28 key vegetables increased by 0.71% week - on - week and 18.48% year - on - year. The edible agricultural product price index increased by 1.10% week - on - week in the week of December 5, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 2.09%. The domestic cement price index increased by 0.56% week - on - week, the Nanhua iron ore index decreased by 1.84% on average week - on - week. Brent and WTI crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.99% and 2.03% on average week - on - week respectively. The LME copper spot price increased by 2.31% on average week - on - week, and the aluminum spot price decreased by 0.32%. The average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities from December 1 - 10, 2025, was about 267,000 square meters per day, compared with about 498,000 square meters per day in December 2024 [2] 3.2 High - Frequency Data Panoramic Scan - The report provides a large amount of high - frequency data on various aspects, including food, other consumer goods, bulk commodities, energy, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, real estate, and shipping, showing the week - on - week and year - on - year changes in these indicators [17][18] 3.3 Comparison of High - Frequency Data and Important Macroeconomic Indicator Trends - The report presents multiple sets of charts comparing high - frequency data with important macro - economic indicators, such as the year - on - year change in copper spot price and the year - on - year change in industrial added value (+ year - on - year change in PPI), etc., to help analyze the relationship between high - frequency data and macro - economic indicators [21] 3.4 Important High - Frequency Indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan - The report shows high - frequency indicators in the US, Europe, and Japan, including US weekly economic indicators, initial jobless claims, same - store sales growth, and the implied interest - rate hike or cut prospects of central banks in the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [90][95] 3.5 Seasonal Trends of High - Frequency Data - The report shows the seasonal trends of high - frequency data for various indicators, such as the daily average output of crude steel (decadal), production material price index, etc., with all seasonal trend indicators being the month - on - month increase rate [103] 3.6 High - Frequency Traffic Data in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen - The report presents the year - on - year changes in subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen [152][153]

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行业研究 从银行视角看经济工作会议 ——2025 年中央经济工作会议精神解读 银行业 买入（维持） 作者 分析师：王一峰 执业证书编号：S0930519050002 010-57378038 wangyf@ebscn.com 分析师：董文欣 执业证书编号：S0930521090001 010-57378035 dongwx@ebscn.com 分析师：赵晨阳 执业证书编号：S0930524070005 010-57378030 zhaochenyang@ebscn.com 一是数量工具层面，央行或继续通过逆回购、买断式、MLF、国债买卖、降准等 多重渠道"花样放水"。现阶段央行流动性投放渠道丰富，逆回购、买断式、MLF、 国债买卖等工具涵盖多种期限与操作频次，对银行体系流动性"补水"并不局限 于降准一种方式。截至 12 月 12 日，包含逆回购、买断式、MLF、国债买卖等工 具在内的广义公开市场操作存量约 14 万亿。鉴于央行保持其"贷方地位"以维系 结构性流动性短缺框架有效性，综合考虑流动性投放的滚动频度、融资成本、基 础货币吞吐强度等因素，预计 2026 年需要央行通过二 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve plays a crucial role in the U.S. and global economy, with monetary policy implementation being its key tool for economic influence [1][2] - The Federal Reserve System consists of three main entities: the Board of Governors, 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is responsible for formulating monetary policy [2][5] - The Federal Reserve's primary objectives are maximum employment and price stability, and it operates independently while being accountable to Congress [2][13] Group 2 - The FOMC is the core institution responsible for determining monetary policy, with its main mission being to achieve maximum employment and price stability [7][8] - FOMC decisions require a voting process, with 12 voting members including 7 Board Governors and the New York Fed President, while other regional Fed Presidents participate in discussions [8][11] - The decision-making process involves analyzing economic conditions, discussing policy options, and publishing economic forecasts and policy intentions after meetings [11][12] Group 3 - The current composition of the Federal Reserve Board may allow for greater influence from former President Trump, as he could potentially nominate multiple members by 2026 [14][15] - The selection of a new Federal Reserve Chair by Trump would require candidates to demonstrate loyalty, management capability, and market trust [16][17] - The potential for changes in regional Federal Reserve Bank leadership could also be influenced by Trump's administration, particularly with upcoming expirations of terms [15]

Price Performance - CPI shows a continuous decline in pork prices, while fruit and vegetable prices are on the rise, with a recent increase of 0.71%[2] - PPI indicates rising prices for crude oil and non-ferrous metals, with WTI prices increasing by 4.39%[2] Domestic Macro - Demand Side - Consumer demand is slightly cooling, with retail sales of passenger cars declining by 3.8% year-on-year[3] - External demand is also weakening, as indicated by a 16.9% month-on-month drop in the Baltic Dry Index (BDI)[3] Domestic Macro - Production Side - Production continues to decline, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points in the industrial production index[3] - Real estate and infrastructure investment is also on a downward trend, with a decline of 2.46 percentage points[3] Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy for next year is expected to remain proactive, with a focus on stimulating economic growth[4] - The recent Central Economic Work Conference has set a relatively positive tone for future economic policies[4] Monetary and Liquidity Conditions - The yield curve for government bonds has slightly shifted downwards, indicating a potential easing of monetary policy[4] - SHIBOR rates have shown minor fluctuations, with the 7-day SHIBOR at 1.4510%, up by 4 basis points[4] International Macro and Market - The Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates by 25 basis points, with a dovish tone from Chairman Powell[4] - Market expectations indicate a potential for further rate cuts, with probabilities for rates below 2.5% increasing significantly[4]

11日凌晨，美联储公布年内最后一次利率决议。 "三连降" 继9月、10月分别降息25基点后，美联储再宣布降息25个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间下调至3.50%-3.75%。 对此次降息，美联储内部存在分歧，12名投票委员中，有3人投票反对，这是自2019年9月以来首次出现该情况。美国消费者新闻与商业频道(CNBC)分析 称，9比3的投票结果再次体现了美联储内部鹰派和鸽派的分歧，芝加哥联储主席奥斯坦·古尔斯比和堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德均投票反对降息，而美 联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰则呼吁降息0.5个百分点。在美联储内部，鹰派通常更关注通胀，倾向于维持高利率，而鸽派则更关注劳动力市场，希望降低利率。 美联储主席鲍威尔在新闻发布会上表示，希望通货膨胀得到控制，回落到2%以下，也希望劳动力市场强劲；由于关税的影响，通胀仍然"处于较高水平"； 美联储将逐次会议做出决定，货币政策并不存在预定的路径；政策在朝着中性利率方向调整，目前已处于中性利率区间的高位。 资本市场对美联储降息反应明显，美股三大指数集体攀升，截至发稿，道指涨超1%，纳指翻红涨0.48%，标普500指数涨0.77%。美联储还宣布恢复美国国债 的购买，美债收 ...

（原标题：国联民生：2026年什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 关注第三、四季度经济节奏阶段 性反转可能性） 除此之外，迫于国内的通胀压力，白宫可能会进一步向下调整关税水平，这一方面是会缓解非美经济体 的压力，另一方面则会导致美国财政的进一步恶化。 智通财经APP获悉，国联民生发布研报称，明年美元预计仍处于弱周期中，但是可能并没有想象中那么 差：年初需要警惕的是特朗普提名的新联储主席在宽松上"措辞谨慎"，明年下半年则要警惕美国和非美 经济体经济表现的阶段性强弱转换。而期间则需要关注日本央行的独立性问题，以及法国等高负债欧洲 国家的阶段性财政担忧。 国联民生主要观点如下： 最近几年，站在年末看下一年的美元走势很容易出错。以去年年底为例子，特朗普意外横扫、重回白宫 之后，市场情绪亢奋，在经济过热、通胀上行预期的指引下，多数人认为美元会延续强势，结果今年美 元在1月就见顶，年内最多跌超10%。如果站在今年年底来判断，美元偏弱可能是明年的基本情形。 如果明年美元有再次违背预期的可能，什么原因可能导致明年美元意外升值？ 为什么市场认为明年美元会偏弱？没有了美国例外论的光环，市场会更加客观地看待美国和非美之间的 关系： ...

中央经济工作会议定调明年经济政策 1、中央经济工作会议定调明年经济政策。 中央经济工作会议在北京举行，定调明年经济工作，强调要继续实施更加积极的财政政 策，保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量，重视解决地方财政困难。要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具。会议确定8方面重点任务，提出要优化"两新"政策实施，清理消费领域不合理限制措施。推动投资止跌回稳，适 当增加中央预算内投资规模。坚持创新驱动，深化拓展"人工智能 "。深入整治"内卷式"竞争。加快新型能源体系建设，扩大绿电应 用。倡导积极婚育观，努力稳定新出生人口规模。着力稳定房地产市场，因城施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收购存量商品房重 点用于保障性住房等。多措并举化解地方政府融资平台经营性债务风险。 2、商务部将出台加快零售业创新发展意见。 旨在通过统筹规划、合理布局，提升商品和服务质量，协同优化存量和增量，推动线上 线下公平竞争，以实现新供给与新需求的良性互动。这一政策有望为零售行业带来新的发展机遇，促进市场活力提升。 3、11月中国汽车产销同比增长，新能源汽车占比超五成。 中国汽车工业协会数据显示，11月汽车产销分别完 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the frameworks for analyzing the ten-year government bond yield, emphasizing its relationship with nominal GDP growth, dividend yield, supply-demand dynamics, and monetary policy [2][3][4]. Group 1: International Experience Framework - The ten-year government bond yield represents the risk-free rate of a country and should correspond to its economic growth and investment returns [2]. - Before unconventional monetary policies are implemented, a nominal GDP growth of 4%-5% typically corresponds to a ten-year bond yield of 2%-5% [2][22]. - Currently, China's nominal GDP growth is approximately 4.2%, while the ten-year bond yield is around 1.85% [7][22]. Group 2: Supply-Demand Perspective - The "scissors difference" between corporate and household deposits indicates strong demand for funds in the real economy, leading to upward pressure on bond yields [10][11]. - Over the past year, this scissors difference has increased by 9%, suggesting a higher probability of rising ten-year bond yields in the coming year [11][30]. - The non-bank investment gap has been trending upward since October 2024, indicating a higher risk appetite among financial institutions [13][34]. Group 3: Policy Perspective - The ten-year bond yield has declined more than the policy rate in recent years, with a difference of 12 basis points in 2022, 38 basis points in 2023, and 30 basis points in 2024 [3][37]. - Given the current strong equity market and the central bank's focus on preventing fund idling, the downward space for the ten-year bond yield is relatively limited [3][39]. - The expectation for unconventional monetary policy in 2025 has cooled, suggesting that the ten-year bond yield may gradually return to a normal range [4][39].

事件： 12月12日，央行公布2025年11月中国金融数据，信贷余额同比下降0.1个百分点至6.4%，社融存量 同比持平于8.5%，M1同比下行1.3个百分点至4.9%。 核心观点：M1增速回落源于财政节奏"错位" 11月金融数据中，M1增速回落或源于财政化债节奏错位。 2024年11月，财政部启动大规模化债政策，发 行2万亿元置换债为企业注入流动性，当月及12月单位活期存款环比增速显著高于正常季节性水平。2025 年化债资金发行"前置"，支撑了上半年M1与经济增长，但导致年底M1增速缺乏改善动力，这或是11月 M1增速下滑的主因之一。 此外，M1增速回落或与居民存款下降相关，这直接与居民信贷收缩关联。 10-11月居民信贷需求持续收 缩，同比分别少增5204亿、4763亿元，其中短期贷款合计收缩5144亿元，或令居民活期存款走弱，进而 拖累M1增速。居民信贷与就业紧密相关，11月BCI企业前瞻指数回暖至57.37，但最近12月中枢偏低，或 是居民信贷谨慎的主因。 11月企业贷款仍以短期融资为主，尽管PPI已中枢抬升（从7月-3.6%回升至11月-2.2%），但企业投资仍 持观望态度。 当月企业短期贷款及票据 ...