Group 1 - The core issue in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is not monetary policy but the identity of the new leadership, with Rick Riedel from BlackRock being a prominent candidate [1] - Riedel's stance includes advocating for a reduction of the benchmark interest rate to 3%, indicating a need for at least a 50 basis point cut to maintain balance [3] - The market consensus suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to adjust interest rates in the January meeting, as current economic conditions leave little room for maneuvering [3] Group 2 - The preferred inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, the core PCE price index, showed a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, which does not meet the 2% target [5] - The U.S. labor market is showing signs of cooling, with only 50,000 jobs added in December, significantly below expectations, and previous months' data revised down by 76,000 [6][8] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.4%, but this does not mask the rapid cooling of the labor market [8] Group 3 - The political pressure on the Federal Reserve, particularly from Trump, complicates the decision-making process, as any interest rate cut could be perceived as yielding to political influence [10] - The interest rate differential between U.S. and Chinese ten-year government bonds has widened to -240 basis points, indicating a significant risk for the Chinese economy and currency [11] - The People's Bank of China has lowered the MLF rate to enhance liquidity, but this internal easing increases external capital outflow pressure [12] Group 4 - Major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, are proactively issuing hundreds of billions in bonds to secure long-term funding ahead of potential credit tightening [14] - The external demand for Chinese exports may decline sharply if the U.S. economy experiences a hard landing due to high interest rates, fundamentally altering domestic asset pricing logic [14]

美联储：为期两天的FOMC货币政策会议开幕。 ...

2026年开年以来，欧元在全球汇市展现强势上行态势，兑美元持续冲高并逼近关键整数关口，成为非美 货币中表现亮眼的品种。这一走势核心源于欧元区通胀的韧性表现夯实欧央行维稳立场，叠加美欧货币 政策分化加剧、美元指数弱势走低形成的外部托底，不过欧元区经济复苏分化、关键阻力位博弈及美联 储政策不确定性，仍限制欧元单边上行空间，整体呈强势震荡格局。 欧元区通胀数据的超预期表现，成为欧元走强的核心内在动力。最新通胀数据显示，欧元区整体通胀率 回升且高于市场预期，能源价格涨幅扩大成为主要推手，核心通胀率保持稳定，服务业通胀虽有回落但 整体走势符合预期，通胀层面的韧性超出市场预估。 通胀的稳定表现直接夯实了欧洲央行的政策维稳立场，2026年降息预期彻底消散。尽管欧央行此前小幅 下调存款利率，但行长拉加德明确表态当前政策处于"良好位置"，会议纪要也显示委员对通胀风险存在 分歧，核心聚焦服务业通胀与工资增长变化。市场普遍预期欧央行2026年将维持利率稳定，部分机构甚 至预判2027年存在加息可能，政策的稳定性为欧元提供了坚实支撑。 美欧货币政策的分化格局，成为驱动欧元兑美元上行的关键外部因素。当前市场对美联储2026年实施多 次 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The People's Bank of China's "Three - Target System" monetary policy framework aims to maintain exchange rate stability, price stability, and promote economic growth. In 2026, the implementation of monetary policy and liquidity injection methods are restricted, and the central bank needs to balance the degree of easing [6]. - The adjustment of the real estate market and debt resolution have led to an endogenous contraction of credit financing demand. The goal of monetary policy has shifted to preventing the spread of real estate market risks and local debt risks, and a "moderately loose" orientation has been established [2][29]. - In 2026, open - market net purchases of treasury bonds and reserve requirement ratio cuts may be considered as liquidity injection tools. It is expected that there may be one 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 if the net interest margin of commercial banks stabilizes, and the third and fourth quarters may be good time windows. There may be 1 - 2 comprehensive interest rate cuts, each with a 10BP reduction [3][34]. - In the stock market in 2026, high - tech sectors such as semiconductors and commercial aviation under the logic of self - controllability, as well as cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, are expected to perform well [37]. - In the treasury bond futures market, the TL contract has recovered. Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities at the ultra - long end. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the medium term, and strategies such as hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities to go long on inter - period spreads, and seizing opportunities for positive spreads are recommended [39][42]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 The People's Bank of China's "Three - Target System" Monetary Policy Analysis Framework - **Evolution of the Monetary Policy Framework**: The long - term goals of the People's Bank of China's monetary policy are to maintain the basic stability of the exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level, keep prices stable, and promote economic growth. There is a reverse relationship between "full employment" and "price stability". In 2026, the implementation of monetary policy and liquidity injection methods are restricted due to multiple factors [6]. - **Evolution from "Quantity" to "Price" and the Establishment of a Modern Regulatory Mechanism**: The People's Bank of China has explored the path of market - oriented reform from "quantity" to "price" for more than thirty years. The current operation target is the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate. The central bank uses two types of tools for "quantity" injection to affect the price regulation of the 7 - day reverse repurchase rate and ultimately achieve long - term monetary policy goals. Since September 2024, the central bank has been exploring the construction of a modern central bank system [11][14]. 3.2 Real Estate Market Adjustment and Debt Resolution, Endogenous Contraction of Credit Financing Demand - **International Experience**: There is a cyclical cycle between monetary easing and the real estate market in major economies. Japan's economic decline after the signing of the "Plaza Accord" in the 1980s is a typical example [16]. - **Domestic Situation**: In 2015, China's monetary easing and exchange rate reform supported the real estate market and economic growth, but also led to the intensification of real estate market bubbles and the rise of local government implicit debt. Since 2022, due to the tightening of real estate regulation policies and the impact of the COVID - 19 pandemic, the real estate market has entered a deep - seated adjustment, and residents and enterprises are accelerating deleveraging. The central government has taken over local debt risks, and the goal of monetary policy has shifted to preventing risk spread, with a "moderately loose" orientation [21][24][29]. - **Forecast of Credit Financing Demand**: Endogenous credit financing demand is expected to be weak for a long time, and government bond financing will support the stock of social financing. It is estimated that the average monthly year - on - year growth rate of loan balances will be 6.1% in 2026, a further decline of 0.8 percentage points compared with 2025, and the average monthly year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing will be 8.0%, a decline of 0.6 percentage points compared with 2025 [30]. 3.3 The People's Bank of China's Monetary Policy Choices - **Liquidity Injection**: Open - market net purchases of treasury bonds and reserve requirement ratio cuts may be considered as liquidity injection tools in 2026. It is expected that there may be one 50BP reserve requirement ratio cut in 2026 if the net interest margin of commercial banks stabilizes, and the third and fourth quarters may be good time windows [34]. - **Interest Rate Policy**: The main constraint on the central bank's interest rate cuts is the net interest margin of commercial banks. It is expected that there may be 1 - 2 comprehensive interest rate cuts, each with a 10BP reduction, after the net interest margin stabilizes [36]. - **Stock Market Outlook**: In 2026, high - tech sectors such as semiconductors and commercial aviation under the logic of self - controllability, as well as cyclical sectors such as non - ferrous metals, are expected to perform well [37]. 3.4 Treasury Bond Futures Market Tracking and Outlook - **Market Performance**: Last week, the TL contract of the treasury bond futures market recovered significantly. The market showed a characteristic of a stronger long - end and a relatively stable short - end, with the yield curve flattening. The net long positions of private funds, foreign investors, and wealth management subsidiaries increased [39]. - **Market Outlook**: Attention should be paid to the hedging opportunities at the ultra - long end. The short - end contracts are more resilient, and the volatility will focus on the ultra - long - end TL contract. The 30 - 10 spread provides arbitrage opportunities, and the effectiveness of basis arbitrage strategies has increased. The market is expected to be volatile and bearish in the medium term, and strategies such as hedging on rallies, seizing opportunities to go long on inter - period spreads, and seizing opportunities for positive spreads are recommended [39][40][42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the need for monetary policy to play a crucial role in expanding domestic demand and stimulating economic recovery in 2026, as the economy shows signs of upward momentum [1][2][3] - The report indicates that despite external shocks in 2025, the Chinese economy has demonstrated resilience, with improvements in financial indicators such as stock market performance, RMB exchange rates, and corporate deposits [2] - The report highlights that the support for economic recovery in 2025 primarily comes from fiscal policy, external demand, and prior price adjustments, while investment and the real estate market face significant pressures [2][3] Group 2 - Zhang Bin suggests that the current economic recovery requires a shift from "government-led" to a dual approach of "government-led + market-driven," with monetary policy being particularly critical [3] - The articles discuss the need for fiscal policy to be structurally optimized, focusing on addressing issues that the public cannot resolve on their own, rather than just traditional spending [3][4] - There is a consensus that low inflation poses a significant risk to the economy, necessitating a combination of policies to address this issue, with monetary policy expected to play a larger role [4][5] Group 3 - The articles outline the debate on the extent of monetary policy needed, with some experts suggesting that maintaining social financing growth at levels similar to 2025 is essential for keeping nominal GDP growth above 2025 [5][6] - The central economic work conference emphasizes the importance of stabilizing economic growth and ensuring reasonable price recovery as key considerations for monetary policy [5] - Discussions are increasing regarding the necessity of setting nominal GDP targets as a more effective strategy for addressing low inflation, as it aligns better with the governance structure of the country [6]

在俄乌冲突爆发三年后，通胀率和欧洲央行的关键利率已回落至2%——经济学家们正在研究未来如何 避免类似的误判。 纳科夫和加西比发现，标准的宏观经济模型难以解释自2022年以来观察到的通胀飙升，以及企业调整价 格的频率。 智通财经APP获悉，欧洲央行(ECB)的一项研究显示，如果一个相对有限的价格冲击波及一个紧密联系 的企业网络，就可能引发大规模的通胀浪潮。 欧洲央行经济学家安东·纳科夫和巴塞罗那国际经济学研究中心研究员米歇尔·加西比在周二写道，这是 因为冲击会沿着供应链产生连锁反应，一家企业的产出成本，即为另一家企业的投入成本。 他们指出："当冲击规模较大时，这些级联效应会不成比例地扩大。一次重大冲击，例如生产率大幅下 降或全球大宗商品价格持续飙升，可能掀起一场波及整个经济的浪潮。" 这一研究结果有助于解释，为何在俄乌冲突导致能源成本飙升后，欧元区通胀率一度攀升至10%以上。 欧洲央行官员当时低估了其对消费者价格的影响，现在也承认自身的反应过于迟缓。 因此，他们构建了一个包含近40个部门的"详细经济模型"，各部门之间通过符合现实的投入产出关系相 连接。该模型重现了价格的跃升以及异常快速的价格调整速度。 研究得出 ...

2026 年 01 月 26 日 行业周报 看好/维持 银行 银行 银行周报（0119-0125）：总量货币政策仍有空间，结构性货币政 策先行落地 ◼ 走势比较 (10%) (2%) 6% 14% 22% 30% 25/1/27 25/4/9 25/6/20 25/8/31 25/11/11 26/1/22 ◼ 推荐公司及评级 | 工商银行 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 农业银行 | 增持 | | 杭州银行 | 买入 | | 江苏银行 | 买入 | 相关研究报告 <<江苏银行 2025 年三季度点评：盈 利能力提升，资产规模稳增>>-- 2025-12-07 证券分析师：夏芈卬 电话：010-88695119 E-MAIL：xiama@tpyzq.com 分析师登记编号：S1190523030003 研究助理：王子钦 ◼ 子行业评级 | 国 有 大 型 银 | 看好 | | --- | --- | | 行Ⅱ | | | 全 国 性 股 份 | 看好 | | 制银行Ⅱ | | | 区域性银行 | 看好 | E-MAIL：wangziqin@tpyzq.com 一般证券业务登记编号：S119012 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emphasis on relying more on monetary policy to expand domestic demand rather than fiscal policy is highlighted, as monetary policy can effectively influence individual behaviors and market dynamics [3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Domestic Demand - Zhang Bin, a senior researcher at CF40, argues that expanding domestic demand through fiscal spending is limited by practical constraints, such as the need for homeowner consent for projects like elevator installations in old residential buildings [3]. - The report indicates that from 2018 to 2021, the average mortgage interest rate in China was 5.5%, while the average growth rate of second-hand housing prices was 4.1%, resulting in a net cost of home buying at 1.4%, which was lower than the average rental yield of 2.2% [3]. - In contrast, from 2022 to 2025, the average mortgage interest rate is projected to drop to 3.9%, with second-hand housing prices expected to decline at an annual rate of -4.8%, leading to a net cost of home buying rising to 8.7%, making buying less attractive compared to renting [3]. Group 2: Impact of Interest Rates - Lowering interest rates can reduce the cost gap between buying and renting, thereby increasing residents' willingness to purchase homes [4]. - Monetary policy is seen as a more sustainable approach to expanding domestic demand by improving expectations and optimizing the budget constraints and incentives for both corporate investments and consumer spending [4]. - The key to achieving these changes lies in the central bank's firm stance on inflation targets and significantly lowering policy interest rates, which can enhance market confidence and influence economic behavior [4].

行业涨跌榜 | 库号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | [区间首日] 2026-01-19 | | | | | | ［区间尾日］2026-01-24 | | | | | | 单位 % ↑ | | | 1 | : 801780.SI | 银行(申万) | | -2.6979 | | 2 | 801770.SI | 通信(申万) | | -2.1196 | | 3 801790.SI | | 非银金融(申万) | | -1.4536 | 申万一级行业中，建筑材料、石油石化、钢铁涨幅靠前，银行、通信、非银金融、食品饮料跌幅靠前。 上周市场回顾 关键词：权益市场多数上涨 上周权益市场分化，上证指数上涨0.8%，深证指数上涨1.1%，沪深300下跌0.6%，创业板指下跌0.3%， 科创50上涨2.6%。 债市上涨，10年国债收益率收于1.83%左右，下行约1.3bp，7年国债收益下行2.2bp左右，1年国债收益 率上行约4.0bp，3年期中债企业债收益率下行约1.5bp。 | 成号 证券代码 | | 证券简称 | 区间涨跌 ...

由于美国总统特朗普对美联储的攻击引发的强烈反弹，他正将自己放在一个两难境地之中：他钟意的美 联储主席接班人，市场不喜欢；市场青睐的，他又怕其随后会"叛变"。 数月来，特朗普政府寻找新任美联储主席的行动正日渐艰难。能让特朗普满意的美联储主席继任者要满 足多项条件：支持特朗普政策且对他忠心耿耿，能够推动大幅降息，同时赢得华尔街和"让美国再次伟 大"（MAGA）支持者的信任，还要顺利通过参议院的提名确认。此外，该候选人还需要符合特朗普在 意的"上镜"和"明星气质"。 近期在达沃斯论坛上，特朗普表示他将在"不久的将来"宣布新任美联储人选。美国财政部长贝森特则证 实，特朗普表示"可能最早在1月26日当周"宣布该人选。 截至27日下午记者发稿时，预测平台Polymarket的数据显示，贝莱德全球固定收益首席投资官里德尔 （Rick Rieder）当选美联储主席的概率为48%，排名第二的前美联储理事沃什（Kevin Warsh）的概率为 28%。 彭博经济研究美国首席经济学家Anna Wong对第一财经表示："如果沃什最终获得提名，我们认为可能 意味着三种情形：众人误解了特朗普对低利率的诉求（但这不太可能）；沃什已经放弃了 ...