Core Viewpoint - The recent rise in CPI since September is primarily driven by three factors: the weakening drag from rising vegetable prices, the rebound in prices of certain consumer goods and services due to domestic demand expansion policies, and the increase in gold jewelry prices influenced by international gold prices [1] Group 1: CPI Influencing Factors - The increase in vegetable prices has seen a reduction in its negative impact on the food component of CPI [1] - Domestic demand expansion policies have led to a rebound in prices for some consumer goods and services [1] - International gold prices have contributed to the rise in gold jewelry prices [1] Group 2: Future CPI Outlook - The supply of local vegetables in the south and increased supply of facility-grown vegetables in the north may alleviate market supply and demand tensions, potentially leading to a smaller increase in vegetable prices compared to November [1] - The ongoing drag from pork prices and stable growth in fresh fruit prices may slightly amplify the negative impact on food CPI [1] - To sustain the rebound in consumer goods and service prices, it may be necessary to further expand the scope of national subsidies and strengthen policies related to service consumption [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" identifies the expansion of high-quality consumer goods and service supply as a key support for the domestic demand strategy, leading to a cautiously optimistic outlook for future CPI increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the approval of the "15th Five-Year Plan" by the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, outlining a strategic framework for China's economic and social development during this period, with various provinces already formulating their local plans to align with national objectives [1]. Group 1: Provincial Plans and Economic Goals - Over 20 provinces have approved local "15th Five-Year Plan" proposals, with many publicly announcing their strategies [1]. - Zhejiang aims for significant economic and technological advancements by 2030, targeting a per capita GDP close to that of developed economies [1]. - Guangdong emphasizes the "Hundred Counties, Thousand Towns, and Ten Thousand Villages High-Quality Development Project" to enhance rural revitalization [2]. - Hubei identifies the "15th Five-Year Plan" period as crucial for its rise as a central region, focusing on the real economy and advanced manufacturing [2]. - Shanxi aims for a transformation towards modernization during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing energy transition and industrial upgrades [2]. Group 2: Industry Development and Innovation - Shaanxi plans to enhance traditional industries and develop modern manufacturing sectors, including new energy vehicles and semiconductors [3]. - Guizhou is set to optimize six major industrial clusters, including smart industries and advanced equipment manufacturing [3]. - Hainan is committed to implementing the Free Trade Port plan, focusing on institutional innovation and high-level openness [5]. - Sichuan and Hunan are prioritizing artificial intelligence in their development strategies, with a focus on integrating AI into various sectors [5]. Group 3: Regional Cooperation and Infrastructure - The "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development" is a key focus for the three provinces, with plans to enhance connectivity and support the construction of the Xiong'an New Area [6]. - Guangdong is working on building a unified market in the Greater Bay Area while enhancing cooperation with other major economic regions [6]. - Liaoning is focusing on strengthening safety in key sectors, including food and energy supply chains, to promote high-quality development [8]. Group 4: Social Development and Public Welfare - Shandong is implementing initiatives to boost employment for key demographics, including graduates and veterans, as part of its economic strategy [9]. - Fujian is enhancing healthcare reforms to improve public health services and ensure better access to medical care [9]. - The overarching goal across provinces is to prioritize people's well-being in economic and social development, reflecting a commitment to improving quality of life [9].

◎新华社北京12月10日电 党的二十届四中全会审议通过的《中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》， 为"十五五"时期我国经济社会发展擘画了宏伟蓝图。 截至12月上旬，围绕《建议》提出的主要目标和战略任务，先后已有20余个省份审议通过了地方"十五 五"规划建议，其中大多省份对外公布了地方"十五五"规划建议。 新的历史征程即将开启。在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚强领导下，各省份深入贯彻落实党的二十届 四中全会精神，更好发挥国家发展规划的战略导向作用，紧密结合自身发展实际，作出新一轮战略部 署，为"十五五"乃至未来更长时期高质量发展打下坚实基础、开创崭新局面。 锚定长远目标，凝心聚力谋篇未来发展 11月14日，浙江杭州，《中共浙江省委关于制定浙江省国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》 审议通过。 作为最早一批出台的地方"十五五"规划建议，这份文件提出"到2030年，我省经济实力、科技实力、综 合竞争力大幅跃升，人均地区生产总值接近发达经济体水平"，经济大省浙江在谋划未来五年发展上迈 出关键一步。 在国家发展大局中找准定位，在新起点新征程担当作为。 广东提出"'百县千镇万村高质量发展工程'取 ...

[ 若以2015年"8·11汇改"为起点，到2025年上半年累计贬值约15%。 ] 过去二十多年，中国汇率政策会依据客观环境的变化而相机调整，具有很强的自主性和灵活性。当前和 未来一个时期，国际经济环境依然严峻复杂，人民币稳定运行的外部环境依然存在不确定性。未来应从 我国实际出发，对汇率政策做出新的布局，使人民币汇率合理回归，引导市场理性看待由基本面驱动的 汇率波动趋势，更好发挥汇率政策在经济高质量发展过程中的积极作用。 1 人民币汇率被低估了吗 近十年来，人民币对美元呈总体性贬值态势。若以2015年"8·11汇改"为起点，到2025年上半年累计贬值 约15%。这一时期，中国经济增速明显高于美国，经常账户连续多年维持较高顺差，国际收支基本面稳 健，外汇储备充足；相比之下，美国经常账户逆差持续扩张，财政赤字不断扩大，政府债务屡创新高。 同时，尽管人民币相对美元走弱，但对一篮子货币保持相对稳定。可见，这一时期，人民币的持续贬值 并非经济基本面的真实反应，而是短期市场情绪、单边预期和外部冲击叠加导致的过度反应。 再从相对购买力平价角度看，两国货币之间的汇率变动应大致抵消其通货膨胀率的差异。疫情后美国物 价一度大幅上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" by various provinces in China, highlighting their strategic goals and initiatives aimed at achieving high-quality economic and social development during this period [1]. Group 1: Provincial Planning and Goals - Over 20 provinces have approved their local "14th Five-Year Plan" proposals, aligning with the central government's strategic objectives [1]. - Zhejiang aims for significant economic and technological advancements by 2030, targeting GDP per capita close to that of developed economies [2]. - Guangdong emphasizes the "High-Quality Development Project" for rural areas, while Shandong focuses on enhancing innovation and ecological protection [3]. Group 2: Economic Transformation and Development - Hubei identifies the "14th Five-Year" period as crucial for its rise in central China, focusing on advanced manufacturing and modern service industries [4]. - Shanxi plans to accelerate its energy transition and upgrade its manufacturing sector, leveraging agriculture and tourism for development [4]. - Western provinces like Shaanxi aim to enhance traditional industries and promote new energy sectors [4]. Group 3: Industry-Specific Initiatives - Guizhou is set to optimize six major industrial clusters, including digital industries and advanced manufacturing, while also developing three distinctive sectors [5]. - Heilongjiang is focusing on developing a billion-level ice economy, promoting a full industry chain around ice sports and tourism [6]. Group 4: Reform and Innovation - Hainan is implementing reforms to enhance its free trade port, while Shandong is focusing on building major open cooperation platforms [7]. - Sichuan and Hunan are prioritizing artificial intelligence integration into various sectors, indicating a trend towards technological innovation [7]. Group 5: Regional Cooperation and Integration - The "Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei" collaborative development is a key focus for these regions, with plans for infrastructure and functional integration [9]. - Guangdong is enhancing its role in the national market while promoting cooperation with other major economic regions [10]. Group 6: Safety and Sustainability - Provinces are emphasizing ecological safety and resource security, with Inner Mongolia focusing on environmental protection and Liaoning on supply chain security [12]. - The plans highlight a balance between development and safety, ensuring that economic growth does not compromise ecological integrity [12]. Group 7: Social Development and Welfare - Provinces are prioritizing social welfare, with initiatives aimed at improving employment and healthcare services [13]. - The focus on people's well-being as a central theme in development strategies reflects a commitment to enhancing quality of life [13]. Group 8: Implementation and Future Outlook - The ongoing release of provincial plans is expected to facilitate the effective implementation of the central government's "14th Five-Year Plan," laying a solid foundation for achieving significant progress in modernization [14].

Core Viewpoint - Chengdu is strategically planning its economic and social development for the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, focusing on innovation-driven growth and the establishment of five key centers and areas to enhance its competitive advantage in urban development [1]. Group 1: Economic Development Strategy - Chengdu aims to accelerate the construction of a national advanced manufacturing base, with industrial investment growth reaching an annual average of 30.4%, leading among 20 key cities in China [2]. - The city will implement the "circle-chain integration" project to enhance the resilience of industrial chains and elevate the global competitiveness of key industries such as electronic information and equipment manufacturing [2]. - Chengdu's "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the integration of science and industry as a critical path to seizing opportunities from the new technological revolution and industrial transformation [7]. Group 2: Cultural and Creative Industry - The city plans to establish itself as a national cultural and creative center, with the digital cultural and creative industry expected to exceed 410 billion yuan by 2025, aiming for over 600 billion yuan by 2030 [6]. - Chengdu will enhance the development capabilities of cultural and creative industry parks, attracting major projects and quality enterprises to foster a collaborative ecosystem [6]. Group 3: International Engagement and Open Economy - Chengdu is set to become a national center for foreign exchanges and a new high ground for reform and opening up, enhancing its global resource allocation capabilities [8]. - The city will support the construction of the Asia-Europe International Railway Hub and develop a logistics hub system to strengthen international cooperation and expand its global outreach [8][9]. - Chengdu aims to improve its "Invest in Chengdu" brand and establish a comprehensive service system for foreign investment, facilitating enterprises in expanding overseas markets [9]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Connectivity - The city will promote urban agglomeration development and enhance transportation infrastructure, including the construction of high-speed railways and urban rail lines to improve connectivity [10]. - Chengdu plans to initiate the second phase of the Tianfu International Airport project and develop various economic corridors to support regional collaboration and growth [9][10].

近期，多个省市陆续发布关于国民经济和社会发展的第十五个五年规划建议（以下简称"'十五五'规划 建议"），对"十五五"时期的经济社会发展提出目标和要求，并做出工作部署。 房地产处于新旧动能转换关键阶段，又事关金融稳定与民生福祉，对这项工作的安排，备受各方关注。 21世纪经济报道记者梳理多个省份的"十五五"规划建议发现，对房地产相关工作的部署，主要体现在化 解风险、促进消费、发力城市更新、推动高质量发展等方面。其中，不少省份的提法颇有亮点。 广东省、重庆市、厦门市均在"十五五"规划建议中提出，实现更高水平住有所居，体现出在住有所居的 基础上，对供应制度、居住品质和管理体系的更高要求。 贵州省强调，探索推进"四房联动"，即"以旧换新促进二手房与商品房联动，以需定购促进保障房与商 品房联动，以购代建促进安置房与商品房联动"。贵州还因地制宜地提出，"大力发展旅居地产"。 作为城市内涵式发展的重要内容，不少省市对城市更新也有创新性提法。 梳理这些内容，对于理解未来五年房地产发展模式和路径，有着重要意义。 防风险与促消费并重 在楼市处于新旧发展动能转换的关键阶段，防范化解风险仍是房地产政策的重要底线。 在多个省市的"十五五 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - The core CPI year-on-year remains high at 1.2%, unchanged from the previous month, marking the highest level since February 2024[7] - In November, the overall CPI increased by 0.7% year-on-year, supported by food prices and consumption subsidies[7] - Food prices rose by 0.5% month-on-month, with fresh vegetable prices increasing by 7.2% due to weather factors[8] Group 2: PPI Insights - The PPI decreased by 2.2% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[18] - The decline in PPI is influenced by falling international oil prices, while upstream prices for coal and non-ferrous metals have risen[18] - The "anti-involution" policy continues to impact industrial prices, with coal mining prices increasing by 4.1% month-on-month[18] Group 3: Future Outlook - The recovery of service CPI is expected to be a key variable for price stabilization in 2026, shifting focus from physical consumption[17] - The ongoing emphasis on service consumption in the "14th Five-Year Plan" and central economic work conference highlights the need for policy support[17] - Risks remain regarding the uncertainty in the real estate market and potential inadequacies in policy measures[24]

Group 1 - The banking industry in 2026 will face a mixed external environment with strong macroeconomic resilience but insufficient effective demand, leading to continued moderate monetary policy and challenges in asset allocation due to a low interest rate environment [4][10] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a financial powerhouse, urging banks to leverage their resource endowments and deepen their strategic initiatives over the next five years [4][10][22] - The overall financial performance of listed banks is expected to improve in 2026, driven by the recovery of net interest income and non-interest income, with a projected net profit growth of 2.4% year-on-year [4][27] Group 2 - The net interest margin is expected to narrow by 6 basis points in 2026, with net interest income growth projected to rise to 4% compared to 0.3% in 2025 [4][27] - Non-interest income is anticipated to continue improving due to the recovery of wealth management opportunities and the fading impact of fee reductions from previous years [4][27] - The overall asset quality of the banking sector is expected to remain stable, with a focus on monitoring risks in the retail sector [4][27] Group 3 - The investment strategy emphasizes high dividend yields as a protective measure, with the banking sector's average dividend yield at 3.94%, providing a significant premium over ten-year government bonds [4][27] - Specific banks such as Chengdu Bank, Jiangsu Bank, and Shanghai Bank are highlighted for their strong regional advantages and potential for continued dividend growth [4][27][34] - The report suggests that the active capital market will provide a potential boost to quality retail banks, enhancing their recovery prospects [4][27]

Group 1 - The core strategy of the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes building a modern industrial system, achieving high-level technological self-reliance, and expanding domestic demand as the three main strategic tasks for China's economic breakthrough [3][4]. - Manufacturing upgrades and technological innovation are identified as the driving forces of development, determining what can be supplied, while domestic demand serves as the strategic foundation, influencing whether there is a broad market for these supplies [3][4]. - The current economic environment shows a need for a balance between manufacturing upgrades and boosting domestic demand, with a focus on strengthening the real economy and addressing external uncertainties through domestic circulation [4][10]. Group 2 - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience and structural changes despite a complex domestic and international environment, with innovation and resilience being key themes [5][7]. - The GDP growth rate for 2025 is projected to be around 5%, supported by proactive fiscal policies and moderate monetary policies aimed at stabilizing investment and consumption [7][10]. - Significant changes in the market include breakthroughs in technology, particularly in artificial intelligence and high-end manufacturing, which reflect China's innovative capabilities [8][10]. Group 3 - Looking ahead to 2026, investment opportunities are expected to arise from the ongoing technological revolution, with sectors like artificial intelligence, new energy, and biomedicine poised for significant growth [11][12]. - The external environment is anticipated to become more favorable, with expected easing policies from the U.S. and Europe, which could support China's economic growth [11][12]. - The market structure is shifting, with a historical transition in asset allocation from real estate to financial assets, indicating a change in investment strategies among Chinese residents [13][14].