| | | | 第一部分 | 前言概要 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 【供需展望】 | | 2 | | 【交易逻辑】 | | 2 | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | 第二部分 | 基本面情况 3 | | | 一、行情回顾 | | 3 | | 二、需求：多晶硅"反内卷"将导致 | 2026 年工业硅需求同比下滑 5.61% | 5 | | 三、供应：2026 | 年工业硅供应同比缩减 8 | | | 四、成本：煤炭价格为最大变数，硅石价格或难有明显起色 | 11 | | | 五、库存：库存结构对 | 2026 年工业硅行情主导力量更强 12 | | | 第三部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 13 | | | 免责声明 | | 15 | 有色板块研发报告 工业硅年度报告 2025 年 12 月 31 日 需求承压，关注结构性行情 电 话： 邮 箱： 第一部分 前言概要 【供需展望】 若多晶硅行业自律完美执行，2026 年工业硅三大下游和出口需求同比 下滑 5.61%至 405 万吨。在无供给侧政策出台的背景下，工业硅产能过剩 格局不变，2026 年供应宽松格局不改，产量预计 410 万 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★ [1] - Iron ore: ★★★ [1] - Coke: ★☆★ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆ [1] - Silicon manganese: ★★☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound pattern, and attention should be paid to changes in macro policies [2] - The iron ore market is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are likely to be mainly volatile, with market expectations for stimulus policies [4][5] - For silicon manganese, it is recommended to try long positions on dips [6] - For ferrosilicon, it is also recommended to try long positions on dips [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures price rose and then fell today. The apparent demand for thread improved slightly, production increased slightly, and inventory continued to decline. The supply and demand of hot-rolled coils both decreased, and the inventory reduction accelerated slightly, but the pressure still needs to be relieved [2] - Pig iron production continued to decline, supply pressure gradually eased, steel mill profits improved marginally, and the production reduction trend may slow down. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of environmental protection production restrictions in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the perspective of downstream industries, the decline in real estate investment continued to expand, the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing continued to decline, domestic demand was still weak overall, steel exports remained high, and the actual impact of license management remains to be observed [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures price was weakly volatile today. On the supply side, global shipments decreased month-on-month but were still stronger than the same period last year. There is an expectation of a shipment rush by mines at the end of the year, and overseas shipments are expected to remain strong [3] - The domestic arrival volume decreased month-on-month but was still at a high level in the same period, and port inventory continued to accumulate [3] - On the demand side, terminal demand in the off-season is at a low level. Steel mills' profitability is poor, and due to environmental protection factors, pig iron production has decreased significantly. Steel mills' imported ore inventory has decreased, and there is currently no active replenishment demand [3] Coke - The coke futures price was strongly volatile today. The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, coking profits are average, and daily production has decreased slightly [4] - Coke inventory decreased slightly. Currently, downstream buyers are purchasing on a small scale as needed, and traders' purchasing willingness is average [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures price was widely volatile today. At the end of the year, some coal mines have reduced or suspended production due to safety production and the completion of annual production tasks [5] - Coking coal production decreased slightly, spot auction transactions were okay, and the transaction price increased slightly. Terminal inventory increased, and total coking coal inventory increased slightly, with production-side inventory also increasing slightly [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures price was mainly volatile today. Driven by the rebound in the futures price, the spot price of manganese ore increased [6] - There is a structural problem with the current manganese ore port inventory, and the balance is relatively fragile. The silicon manganese smelting end pursues the most cost-effective option and changes the manganese ore formula for furnace charging. If the amount of oxidized ore decreases significantly, the demand for cheaper semi-carbonate ore is likely to increase [6] - On the demand side, pig iron production decreased seasonally. Silicon manganese weekly production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures price was mainly strong today. The market's expectation of coal mine supply guarantee has increased, and there is an expectation of a decline in electricity costs and blue carbon prices [7] - On the demand side, pig iron production rebounded to a high level. Export demand decreased to above 20,000 tons, with a marginal impact that is not significant. The production of magnesium metal increased month-on-month, and secondary demand increased marginally. Overall demand still has resilience [7] - Ferrosilicon supply decreased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti-involution" [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradiction of black commodities in 2026 lies in the game between the slow recovery of steel demand and the relatively loose supply of furnace materials. Demand is a slow - changing variable, and its growth mainly relies on manufacturing exports. The supply of iron ore is expected to increase, and the pattern next year is likely a process of low - cost replacing high - cost. The supply rhythm of coking coal is determined by policy changes, and macro variables may amplify market sentiment and price fluctuations [3]. - In 2026, steel demand may increase slightly by 1.5%. Domestic demand is stable, and foreign demand is expected to increase. Supply will follow the demand recovery. The steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range [33][86][87]. - Iron ore will continue its capacity expansion process. The current high valuation may face challenges in the first half of next year. The supply increment of mainstream mines will be significant, but there are uncertainties in the capacity - climbing rhythm. The global iron ore demand may increase slightly, but the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [6][138]. - The coal - coke market may show a tight - balance pattern. The supply of coking coal will show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, and imports may impact the domestic market. Coke production will be driven by cost and demand [7][191]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon markets will continue the situation of over - capacity. The price is mainly determined by cost differences in the short - term and supply - demand in the long - term. The price is expected to fluctuate with cost support and high - inventory suppression [283][285]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025 Black Commodity Price Trend Review - The black commodity market in 2025 showed the characteristics of "weak supply and demand of steel, and cost first weak then strong". The iron ore had a 2% increase, while other varieties had a decline of 4% - 14%. The market can be divided into four stages: narrow - range oscillation from January to February, overall weakness from March to May, V - shaped reversal from June to July, and oscillation from August to November [10]. 3.2 2025 Steel Demand Calibration - Different institutions' data on molten iron and scrap steel consumption in 2025 showed large differences. Using the iron ore balance sheet to calculate molten iron production as the benchmark, the total demand in 2025 was basically the same as last year [15][27][30]. 3.3 2026 Steel Operation Logic 3.3.1 Demand Side - In 2026, steel demand may increase by 1.5%. Domestic demand: infrastructure offsets the decline of real estate, and the steel consumption is controllable. Real estate's steel - consumption ratio has narrowed significantly. Infrastructure investment structure is transforming, and the steel - consumption growth rate may decline to about 5%. Manufacturing: domestic consumption may improve, and foreign demand will increase through exports. Steel exports will remain high [33]. 3.3.2 Supply Side - Globally, steel production is expected to grow by 2% in 2026. In China, supply is expected to increase by 1.4% following the demand recovery, and the steel variety structure reflects the economic transformation [71][78]. 3.3.3 Steel Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2026, domestic steel demand is expected to increase by 1.6%, and exports will remain high. Supply is expected to increase by 1.5%, with molten iron having a larger supply increase than scrap steel [83][84][85]. 3.3.4 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the core contradiction of steel is between the slow recovery of demand and the cost loosening of furnace materials. Steel price is expected to oscillate within a range. The investment strategy is to go long near the iron ore cost line and go short when the electric - arc furnace is profitable during peak - electricity periods [86][87][88]. 3.4 2026 Iron Ore Operation Logic 3.4.1 Supply - Mainstream mines: the four major mines will contribute the main supply increment in 2026. Fortescue contributed the main increment in 2025. The production of each mine has different performances, and new projects are in progress [90][97][110]. - Non - mainstream and domestic mines: overseas non - mainstream mines' production is expected to increase by about 25 million tons in 2026. Domestic mines' production is expected to be basically the same as in 2025. There is a risk that the capacity - climbing rhythm of some projects may be lower than expected [126][130][133]. 3.4.2 Demand and Supply - Demand Balance - Global iron ore demand is expected to increase slightly in 2026, but the oversupply situation will be more obvious, with a supply - demand difference of over 20 million tons [134][136]. 3.4.3 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - Iron ore will continue capacity expansion in 2026. The high valuation may face challenges in the first half of the year, but macro factors will support the valuation. The price trend may repeat the V - shaped reversal of this year [138]. 3.5 2026 Coal - Coke Operation Logic 3.5.1 Supply Outlook - Domestic: coking coal production in 2026 is expected to show a "safety - guarantee and supply - guarantee" two - step rhythm, with a year - on - year micro - increase of 0.5% [148]. - Overseas: Mongolian and Russian coal may impact the domestic market. Mongolian coal imports are expected to increase, but there is a risk of expectation difference. Russian coal imports are restricted by factors such as transportation capacity and cost [152][156][166]. 3.5.2 Coke - Backward coke - oven capacities will be phased out. The coke market will be driven by cost and demand, and the supply - demand will continue the tight - balance situation [175][176]. 3.5.3 Demand Outlook - In 2026, the demand for coal - coke will be supported by molten iron production. The game between weak reality and strong expectation and the inflection point of the replenishment cycle will increase price volatility [183]. 3.5.4 2026 Coking Coal and Coke Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand game of coal - coke will enter a normal stage in 2026. The domestic coking coal supply will be adjusted by policy, and imports will be an important factor [187]. 3.5.5 2026 Coal - Coke Conclusion and Investment Outlook - The coal - coke price bottom may have been tested in 2025. The market will show a tight - balance pattern, with both total and structural contradictions. The investment should focus on the rhythm [191]. 3.6 2026 Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Operation Logic 3.6.1 2025 Manganese - Silicon Price Trend Review - The manganese - silicon market in 2025 showed a V - shaped trend, with four stages: rising and then falling in the first stage, oscillating downward in the second stage, rising steadily in the third stage, and oscillating in the fourth stage [193]. 3.6.2 2025 Silicon - Iron Price Trend Review - The silicon - iron market in 2025 had a downward - moving price center, with three stages: falling in the first stage, rising and then falling in the second stage, and oscillating in the third stage [201]. 3.6.3 Supply Side - Manganese - silicon: the supply is in an over - capacity situation. The production is concentrated in the north, and the south is under operating pressure. The future capacity will continue to gather in the main production areas [208][209][221]. - Silicon - iron: the capacity expansion rate has slowed down, but there is still over - capacity. The production is concentrated in the northwest, and the elimination and replacement of backward capacity will be the mainstream [222][223][238]. 3.6.4 Demand Side - The demand for ferroalloys is mainly driven by steel production. In 2026, steel production is expected to increase, and the demand for ferroalloys will be slightly boosted. The export of ferroalloys is under pressure [239][240][252]. 3.6.5 Cost and Inventory - Cost: the cost of manganese - silicon is mainly affected by manganese ore, electricity, and chemical coke prices. The cost of silicon - iron first decreases and then increases [254][271][272]. - Inventory: the manganese - silicon inventory is high, and the inventory inflection point may be postponed. The silicon - iron inventory is relatively healthy [274]. 3.6.6 2025 Annual Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply of ferroalloys is affected by profit and policy. The demand is mainly determined by steel production. In 2026, the supply and demand of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will continue to be affected by over - capacity [277][278][280]. 3.6.7 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - In 2026, the price of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon will follow the logic of "short - term cost determines the direction, long - term supply - demand determines the center". The investment strategy is to focus on cost and supply - demand changes, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [282][283][285].

Report Title - "Ribbed Bar & Hot-Rolled Coil Weekly Report" [1] Analyst Information - Black analyst: Li Yafei - Investment consulting number: Z0021184 - Date: November 30, 2025 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoint - The steel price fluctuates due to the game between demand and cost [3] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Aspects Overseas Macro - The liquidity risk is alleviated in the short term. The US unemployment claim data confirms the weakening of the labor market, providing conditions for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. The Fed will officially end balance sheet reduction on December 1st [5][9] Domestic Macro - The domestic policy is in a short - term vacuum period. With the cold weather, coal trading shifts from "anti - involution" to "supply guarantee", and Mongolia plans to increase exports to China, which significantly impacts market sentiment and weakens coking coal [5][6][8] 2. Black Industry Chain - The steel industry is in a pattern of weak supply and demand. Steel demand enters the off - season, steel inventories are high, steel mill profits are greatly compressed, and seasonal maintenance increases. The slow destocking of hot - rolled coil inventory suppresses the overall rebound of steel prices, and the winter storage trading starts a bit early. Negative feedback dominates the industry logic, and attention should be paid to the steel mill production reduction rhythm [5][12][14] 3. Rebar Fundamental Data Rebar Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai rebar spot price was 3250 (+30) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract price was 3110 (+53) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was 140 (-23) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was -7 (+34) yuan/ton [21] Rebar Demand - New - home sales remain at a low level, indicating low market confidence. Second - hand home sales remain high, showing the existence of rigid demand. Land transaction area also remains low. In the traditional off - season, rebar demand is at a low level [22][25][26] Rebar Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data shows that supply and demand are at a low level, and the inventory level is healthy. The supply from long - and short - process production and inventory data are also presented [27][28] Rebar Production Profit - Last week, the rebar spot profit was 56 (+30) yuan/ton, the main - contract profit was 178 (+64) yuan/ton, and the East China rebar valley - electricity profit was 174 (+103) yuan/ton [36] 4. Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Data Hot - Rolled Coil Basis and Spread - Last week, the Shanghai hot - rolled coil spot price was 3290 (+20) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract futures price was 3302 (+32) yuan/ton, the 01 - contract basis was -12 (-12) yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread was 14 (+18) yuan/ton [41] Hot - Rolled Coil Demand - The peak season for hot - rolled coil demand is not prosperous as the production schedules of the home appliance and automobile industries are not good. However, hot - rolled coil exports remain at a high level [42][43] Hot - Rolled Coil Supply and Inventory - MS weekly data shows production reduction and inventory destocking. The profit expansion leads to an increase in hot - rolled coil production [48][49] Hot - Rolled Coil Production Profit - Last week, the hot - rolled coil spot profit was -65 (+19) yuan/ton, and the main - contract profit was 220 (+43) yuan/ton [53] 5. Variety Spread Structure - The cold - hot spread stops profit - taking. Data on various variety spreads such as Shanghai cold - hot spread, Shanghai coil - rebar spread, etc. are presented [54][55] 6. Variety Regional Difference - Data on regional price differences of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil are presented, including differences between cities like Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou [60][61][63] 7. Cold - Rolled Coil and Medium - Thick Plate Supply, Demand, and Inventory Data - Seasonal data on the total inventory, production, and apparent consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate are presented [66][67]