信用债：信用债到期收益率上行：2025 年 12 月 01 日-2025 年 12 月 07 日期间，信用债一级发行 802 只（包含同业存单），共计 9,310.04 亿元，环比减少 2,360.83 亿元，净融资 2,116.47 亿元。按发行种类分， 资产支持证券发行只数占比最大。按评级分，AAA 级发行 2,954.88 亿 元，占 67.79%。期限方面，主要以 3-5 年为主。按行业分，建筑业发 行只数最多。2025 年 11 月 28 日-2025 年 12 月 05 日期间，城投债到 期收益率上行。其中 AA+、AA 和 AA-评级的 10 年期上行幅度最大， 为 7.79BP。中短期票据到期收益率上行。其中 AA+评级的 5 年期上行 幅度最大，为 4.74BP。 固定收益/固收周报 大类资产周观察：2025 年 11 月 28 日-2025 年 12 月 05 日期间，美三 大股指上涨。道指周涨 0.50%，标普 500 指数周涨 0.31%，纳指周涨 0.91%。欧洲三大股指分化。德国 DAX 指数周涨 0.80%，法国 CAC40 指数周跌 0.10%，英国富时 100 指数周跌 0. ...

国债期货日报 2025/11/14 徐晨曦（投资咨询证号：Z0001908） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290 观点：关注央行政策操作 盘面点评： 周五期债早盘高开低走，午后窄幅震荡，尾盘回升。资金面宽松，DR001在1.37%左右。公开市场逆回购 2128亿，净投放711亿。 重要资讯： 1.中国1-10月城镇固定资产投资同比-1.7%，10月社会消费品零售总额同比增2.9%，10月规模以上工业增加 值同比增4.9%。 2.央行副行长陶玲：约束金融行业"内卷式竞争"，保持合理的盈利空间。 行情研判： A股今日收跌，午后跳水可能给期债尾盘回升提供了动力。今日公布的10月经济数据多数不及预期，投资增 速跌幅加深，工业生产增速放缓，仅消费略好于预期。昨日公布的社融数据则显示居民与企业融资需求不 足，叠加政府发债高峰已过，导致社融同比大幅下降。目前市场对基本面数据反应不大，主要原因在于当下 宽松预期不高，政策面也没有释放更多信号，债市短期难改震荡格局。在基本面趋弱的背景下，短线可把握 回调做多机会，中线多单继续持有。 | | 2025-11-14 | 2025-11-13 | 今日涨跌 | | 202 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose, and the term spread widened. The central bank conducted a total of 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank capital prices increased. The primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan [1]. - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the credit bond issuance volume increased month - on - month. The primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. The credit bond yields mostly rose [2]. - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European stock indexes were divided, most US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, most non - US currencies weakened, crude oil prices fell, and gold prices rose [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection, Rising Capital Prices - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank and exchange capital prices increased. For example, DR001 rose 9.98BP to 1.4644%, and GC001 rose 5.90BP to 1.4110% [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Increased Net Financing, Decreased Local Government Bond Issuance - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds decreased compared with the previous period [27]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose. The 1 - year yield decreased 1.00BP to 1.3900%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields rose 1.51BP, 0.47BP, 4.89BP, and 1.19BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 46.70BP to 48.89BP. The yields of China Development Bank bonds were divided, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 45.04BP to 40.04BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Issuance Volume Increased Month - on - Month - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4,522.11 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 71.79% of the total issuance. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [45]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most urban investment bond yields rose, with the 7 - year AAA and AA - rated bonds having the largest increase of 4.50BP. Most medium - and short - term note yields rose, with the 5 - year AAA - rated note having the largest increase of 5.01BP [55]. 2.3 One - Week Credit Default Event Review - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, one enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 European and American Stock Indexes Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.21%. European stock indexes were divided, with the German DAX Index falling 0.25%, the French CAC40 Index rising 0.36%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index falling 0.72%. Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose and fell unevenly [58]. 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 4.00BP, 5.00BP, 7.00BP, and 8.00BP respectively, while the 1 - year yield decreased 6.00BP. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 14.00BP to 54.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Strengthened, and Most Non - US Currencies Weakened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.30%. Most non - US currencies weakened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.64%, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.21% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Prices Fell, and Gold Prices Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices rose 1.09%, and London spot gold prices rose 0.33%. Brent crude oil prices fell 0.46%, and WTI crude oil prices fell 0.02% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - As the cross - quarter capital demand increases near the end of the quarter, the central bank adjusts the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to relieve liquidity pressure. In the short term, it may boost the bond market sentiment and push down interest rates. In the medium and long term, it can enhance the stability of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will remain volatile in the fourth quarter. Interest - rate bonds should mainly be traded in bands, and credit bonds should focus on urban investment bonds and leading industrial bonds [4][70].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the second half of the year, influenced by a combination of a loose funding environment and limited downward space for bond yields due to macroeconomic recovery and ongoing policy support [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is anticipated to remain loose, providing good support for the bond market [1] - Macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing and recovering, which limits the potential for bond yield declines [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall bond market is expected to exhibit a volatile pattern, with trading opportunities arising from event shocks [1] - Anticipated event shocks are not expected to have a significant impact on the market, while unexpected events could influence asset prices [1] - Most events will only affect short-term risk appetite and trading sentiment, rather than determining the long-term trend of asset prices [1]

Focus on Investment Bonds - The second batch of 39.5 billion yuan special bonds for stabilizing growth and expanding investment has been issued, primarily to support central enterprises in major equipment updates, technological transformation, and strategic emerging industries [1] - The total planned scale of the special bonds for stabilizing growth and expanding investment is 500 billion yuan, issued in batches by China National Assets Management and China Chengtong [1] Technology Innovation Bonds - As of June 7, the total issuance of technology innovation bonds has exceeded 374.8 billion yuan, with 39 financial institutions issuing 223.9 billion yuan and 108 non-financial enterprises issuing 150.998 billion yuan [2] - The Trading Association supports 73 non-financial enterprises in issuing 97.72 billion yuan of technology innovation bonds [2] Macro Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 173.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the same level as before, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [3] Regional Highlights - Zhejiang Province's new local government debt limit for 2025 is set at 378.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 22.3%, exceeding the national average [4] - 91.4% of the new debt limit is allocated for special bonds, primarily for public welfare projects with certain returns [4] - Zhejiang will accelerate the bond issuance process to support major project construction and growth stabilization goals [4] Refinancing Bonds - Shandong Province plans to issue 15.918 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace existing hidden debts, with specific issuance amounts of 1.226 billion yuan, 7.642 billion yuan, and 7.05 billion yuan [5] - Yunnan Province intends to issue 52.7 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds for the same purpose, with issuance amounts of 15 billion yuan, 17.7 billion yuan, and 20 billion yuan [6] Issuance Dynamics - Dengzhou State-owned Assets Holding and Operation Group plans to issue 400 million yuan in corporate bonds, with a credit rating of AA and a stable outlook [7] - Shangqiu Development Investment Group is set to issue 500 million yuan in short-term financing bonds, with a subscription range of 1.6% to 2.6% [8][9] - CITIC Securities has submitted a registration for a public offering of 30 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds, rated AAA [10] - Henan Water Investment Group has completed the issuance of 1.6 billion yuan in corporate bonds at a rate of 2.01% [11] - Xinyang Innovation Industry Group plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in corporate bonds, rated AA+ [12] - Sanmenxia Investment Group is set to issue 3 billion yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds, rated AA+ [13] Market Sentiment - Huatai Fixed Income reports that the bond market is relatively balanced between bullish and bearish forces, making it difficult to break the current oscillation pattern [14] - The central bank's recent policy signals and major banks' active purchases of short-term interest rate bonds have improved market sentiment [14]