固定收益/固收周报 四季度债市或呈现震荡格局 ——固收周报（2025.09.15-2025.09.19） ◼ 核心观点 利率债：国债收益率多数上行，期限利差走阔：2025 年 09 月 12 日- 2025 年 09 月 19 日期间，央行总计开展 22,068.00 亿元逆回购操作， 净投放 6,340.00 亿元。银行间资金价格上行，其中，DR001 上行 9.98BP 至 1.4644%；DR007 上行 5.21BP 至 1.5096%。利率债一级发行 6,645.39 亿元，净融资额为 4,664.25 亿元。国债现券收益率多数上行。国债 1 年期下行 1.00BP 至 1.3900%，3 年期、5 年期、7 年期、10 年期分别 上行 1.51BP、0.47BP、4.89BP、1.19BP 至 1.5124%、1.6186%、1.7934%、 1.8789%。10Y-1Y 期限利差从 46.70BP 走阔至 48.89BP。 信用债：信用债到期收益率上行：2025 年 09 月 15 日-2025 年 09 月 21 日期间，信用债一级新发行 1231 只（含同业存单），发行规模共 计 16,91 ...

中证报中证网讯(记者王鹤静)8月7日晚间，泰信双息双利债券基金经理张安格在"中证点金汇"直播间表 示，下半年债市可能仍将呈现震荡格局。一方面，预计资金面仍将维持宽松，这将对债市形成较好的支 撑；另一方面，宏观经济筑底回升，政策持续发力，这使得债券收益率下行的空间比较有限。所以整体 来看，债市呈震荡格局，交易机会可能来自于一些事件冲击。预期内的事件冲击并不会对市场产生重大 影响，只有预期外的事件才会影响资产价格，多数事件只是影响短期的风险偏好和交易情绪，并不能决 定资产价格的趋势。 ...

Focus on Investment Bonds - The second batch of 39.5 billion yuan special bonds for stabilizing growth and expanding investment has been issued, primarily to support central enterprises in major equipment updates, technological transformation, and strategic emerging industries [1] - The total planned scale of the special bonds for stabilizing growth and expanding investment is 500 billion yuan, issued in batches by China National Assets Management and China Chengtong [1] Technology Innovation Bonds - As of June 7, the total issuance of technology innovation bonds has exceeded 374.8 billion yuan, with 39 financial institutions issuing 223.9 billion yuan and 108 non-financial enterprises issuing 150.998 billion yuan [2] - The Trading Association supports 73 non-financial enterprises in issuing 97.72 billion yuan of technology innovation bonds [2] Macro Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 173.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the same level as before, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [3] Regional Highlights - Zhejiang Province's new local government debt limit for 2025 is set at 378.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 22.3%, exceeding the national average [4] - 91.4% of the new debt limit is allocated for special bonds, primarily for public welfare projects with certain returns [4] - Zhejiang will accelerate the bond issuance process to support major project construction and growth stabilization goals [4] Refinancing Bonds - Shandong Province plans to issue 15.918 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace existing hidden debts, with specific issuance amounts of 1.226 billion yuan, 7.642 billion yuan, and 7.05 billion yuan [5] - Yunnan Province intends to issue 52.7 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds for the same purpose, with issuance amounts of 15 billion yuan, 17.7 billion yuan, and 20 billion yuan [6] Issuance Dynamics - Dengzhou State-owned Assets Holding and Operation Group plans to issue 400 million yuan in corporate bonds, with a credit rating of AA and a stable outlook [7] - Shangqiu Development Investment Group is set to issue 500 million yuan in short-term financing bonds, with a subscription range of 1.6% to 2.6% [8][9] - CITIC Securities has submitted a registration for a public offering of 30 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds, rated AAA [10] - Henan Water Investment Group has completed the issuance of 1.6 billion yuan in corporate bonds at a rate of 2.01% [11] - Xinyang Innovation Industry Group plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in corporate bonds, rated AA+ [12] - Sanmenxia Investment Group is set to issue 3 billion yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds, rated AA+ [13] Market Sentiment - Huatai Fixed Income reports that the bond market is relatively balanced between bullish and bearish forces, making it difficult to break the current oscillation pattern [14] - The central bank's recent policy signals and major banks' active purchases of short-term interest rate bonds have improved market sentiment [14]