Group 1 - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "top and bottom" oscillation pattern in 2025, with a continuation of differentiation and fluctuation into 2026, highlighting certain bonds with relative value [2] - Under a backdrop of moderately loose monetary policy and stable funding conditions, medium- to short-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds are anticipated to provide stable coupon yields, serving as core components for portfolio construction and volatility resistance [2] - Super long-term government bonds have become attractive after significant adjustments, with potential for trading rebounds in the absence of further negative catalysts [2] Group 2 - Focus on regional and industry-specific credit bond opportunities, emphasizing structural exploration in a low overall credit spread environment, particularly in light of the implementation of debt policies in 2026 [3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" orientation, with a two-phase interest rate trend anticipated for 2026: a decline in the first quarter followed by an increase in the second quarter [3] - The central economic work conference indicates that city investment bonds will remain a key focus, with expectations for new measures to alleviate local government debt risks [4] Group 3 - Innovative bond types such as technology innovation bonds and green bonds are expected to expand, supported by policies aimed at enhancing financing channels for tech enterprises [4] - The improvement in corporate profitability expectations, particularly in industries like steel and photovoltaics, is likely to alleviate some corporate debt issues and reduce credit risks in related industry bonds [5] - Key developments in the bond market infrastructure are anticipated, including the unification and high-quality development of the domestic bond market and the deepening of the interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Interest rate bonds: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 96.51 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with 188.68 billion yuan in reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank funds prices showed mixed trends. During December 1 - 7, 2025, 43.0717 billion yuan of interest - rate bonds were issued, with total repayments of 51.0485 billion yuan and a net financing of - 7.9767 billion yuan. Long - term treasury bond yields increased, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP [1]. - Credit bonds: From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds (including inter - bank certificates of deposit) were issued in the primary market, totaling 93.1004 billion yuan, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Credit bond yields to maturity increased. For example, among urban investment bonds, the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increased the most, by 7.79BP [2]. - Observation of major asset classes: From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, US bond yields mostly increased, the US dollar index weakened, non - US currencies strengthened, crude oil prices rebounded during the week, and gold futures and spot prices showed divergence [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest Rate Bonds: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Decline, Mixed Fund Movements - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the central bank's full - scale net withdrawal was 92.17 billion yuan. Bank - to - bank and exchange funds prices showed mixed trends. For example, DR001 decreased by 0.30BP to 1.3003%, and DR007 decreased by 2.88BP to 1.4380% [16]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Net Financing, Decline in Local Bond Issuance - From December 1 to 7, 2025, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was - 7.9767 billion yuan. Treasury bonds raised 22.3 billion yuan, policy - based financial bonds raised 9.9 billion yuan, and local government bond issuance decreased, raising 10.8717 billion yuan [25]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Long - term Treasury Bond Yields Increase, Term Spread Widens - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, long - term treasury bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread of treasury bonds widened from 43.95BP to 44.64BP, and that of policy - bank bonds widened from 34.94BP to 37.66BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Decrease in Issuance Volume Compared with the Previous Period - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 802 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, a decrease of 23.6083 billion yuan from the previous period, with a net financing of 21.1647 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest proportion in terms of issuance number, and financial bonds accounted for the highest proportion in terms of issuance amount. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year range, and the construction industry had the largest number of bond issuances [44]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Credit Bond Yields to Maturity Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, urban investment bond yields to maturity increased, with the 10 - year yields of AA +, AA, and AA - ratings increasing the most, by 7.79BP. Among medium - and short - term notes, the 5 - year yield of AA + rating increased the most, by 4.74BP [54]. 2.3 One - Week Review of Credit Default Events - From December 1 to 7, 2025, 1 enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 Most European and American Stock Indexes Rise - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European three major stock indexes showed divergence, and Asia - Pacific stock indexes generally rose [57]. 3.2 Most US Bond Yields Increase - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, most US bond yields increased. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 12.00BP to 53.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Weakens, Non - US Currencies Strengthen - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.46%, and non - US currencies strengthened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar increased by 0.77%, and the euro against the US dollar increased by 0.37% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Rebounds During the Week, Gold Futures and Spot Prices Diverge - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices decreased by 0.62%, London spot gold prices increased by 1.24%, Brent crude oil prices increased by 0.87%, and WTI crude oil prices increased by 2.61% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - In the short term, ultra - long - term bonds are experiencing increased volatility. The reasons may include the transmission of market sentiment caused by the credit risks of bonds like those of Vanke, trading congestion, and changes in policy expectations. The bond market in the next week may focus on policy games and changes in the capital market. Investors are recommended to pay attention to the policy signals from the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the results of the Federal Reserve's interest - rate meeting. They should focus on the support level of around 1.85% for 10 - year treasury bonds. If policies exceed expectations, they can appropriately shorten the duration. Ultra - long - term bonds need to avoid short - term fluctuations and wait for central bank policy signals. For credit bonds, focus on the allocation value of Tier 2 capital bonds and long - duration credit bonds [70].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The report suggests paying attention to central bank policy operations. In the short - term, the bond market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern. Given the weakening fundamentals, short - term investors can look for opportunities to go long on pullbacks, and medium - term long positions should be held [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Market Conditions - On Friday, Treasury bond futures opened higher but then declined in the morning, fluctuated narrowly in the afternoon, and rebounded at the end of the session. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.37%. The open - market reverse repurchase was 21.28 billion yuan, with a net injection of 7.11 billion yuan [1]. 2. Important Information - From January to October 2025, China's urban fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year. In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.9% year - on - year, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 4.9% year - on - year [2]. - Central Bank Deputy Governor Tao Ling stated that the "involution - style competition" in the financial industry should be restricted to maintain a reasonable profit margin [2]. 3. Market Analysis - The decline of the A - share market in the afternoon may have contributed to the rebound of Treasury bond futures at the end of the session. Most of the economic data released on the day for October were below expectations, with the decline in investment growth deepening and the slowdown of industrial production growth. Only consumption was slightly better than expected [3]. - The social financing data released the previous day showed insufficient financing demand from residents and enterprises. Coupled with the peak of government bond issuance having passed, the year - on - year social financing decreased significantly [3]. 4. Contract Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 14 Price | 2025 - 11 - 13 Price | Price Change | 2025 - 11 - 14 Position | 2025 - 11 - 13 Position | Position Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.446 | 102.462 | - 0.016 | 80,625 | 84,143 | - 3,518 | | TF2512 | 105.85 | 105.88 | - 0.03 | 159,434 | 163,467 | - 4,033 | | T2512 | 108.39 | 108.415 | - 0.025 | 281,658 | 283,711 | - 2,053 | | TL2512 | 116.07 | 116.13 | - 0.06 | 179,301 | 178,373 | 928 | | TS (CTD) Basis | - 0.0135 | - 0.0174 | 0.0039 | 35,578 | 19,118 | 16,460 | | TF (CTD) Basis | 0.0144 | - 0.0357 | 0.0501 | 52,534 | 58,282 | - 5,748 | | T (CTD) Basis | 0.1071 | 0.0891 | 0.018 | 63,609 | 70,905 | - 7,296 | | TL (CTD) Basis | 0.1865 | 0.1992 | - 0.0127 | 80,779 | 81,516 | - 737 | [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose, and the term spread widened. The central bank conducted a total of 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank capital prices increased. The primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan [1]. - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the credit bond issuance volume increased month - on - month. The primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. The credit bond yields mostly rose [2]. - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European stock indexes were divided, most US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, most non - US currencies weakened, crude oil prices fell, and gold prices rose [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection, Rising Capital Prices - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank and exchange capital prices increased. For example, DR001 rose 9.98BP to 1.4644%, and GC001 rose 5.90BP to 1.4110% [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Increased Net Financing, Decreased Local Government Bond Issuance - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds decreased compared with the previous period [27]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose. The 1 - year yield decreased 1.00BP to 1.3900%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields rose 1.51BP, 0.47BP, 4.89BP, and 1.19BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 46.70BP to 48.89BP. The yields of China Development Bank bonds were divided, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 45.04BP to 40.04BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Issuance Volume Increased Month - on - Month - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4,522.11 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 71.79% of the total issuance. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [45]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most urban investment bond yields rose, with the 7 - year AAA and AA - rated bonds having the largest increase of 4.50BP. Most medium - and short - term note yields rose, with the 5 - year AAA - rated note having the largest increase of 5.01BP [55]. 2.3 One - Week Credit Default Event Review - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, one enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 European and American Stock Indexes Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.21%. European stock indexes were divided, with the German DAX Index falling 0.25%, the French CAC40 Index rising 0.36%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index falling 0.72%. Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose and fell unevenly [58]. 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 4.00BP, 5.00BP, 7.00BP, and 8.00BP respectively, while the 1 - year yield decreased 6.00BP. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 14.00BP to 54.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Strengthened, and Most Non - US Currencies Weakened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.30%. Most non - US currencies weakened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.64%, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.21% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Prices Fell, and Gold Prices Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices rose 1.09%, and London spot gold prices rose 0.33%. Brent crude oil prices fell 0.46%, and WTI crude oil prices fell 0.02% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - As the cross - quarter capital demand increases near the end of the quarter, the central bank adjusts the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to relieve liquidity pressure. In the short term, it may boost the bond market sentiment and push down interest rates. In the medium and long term, it can enhance the stability of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will remain volatile in the fourth quarter. Interest - rate bonds should mainly be traded in bands, and credit bonds should focus on urban investment bonds and leading industrial bonds [4][70].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the second half of the year, influenced by a combination of a loose funding environment and limited downward space for bond yields due to macroeconomic recovery and ongoing policy support [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The funding environment is anticipated to remain loose, providing good support for the bond market [1] - Macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing and recovering, which limits the potential for bond yield declines [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall bond market is expected to exhibit a volatile pattern, with trading opportunities arising from event shocks [1] - Anticipated event shocks are not expected to have a significant impact on the market, while unexpected events could influence asset prices [1] - Most events will only affect short-term risk appetite and trading sentiment, rather than determining the long-term trend of asset prices [1]

Focus on Investment Bonds - The second batch of 39.5 billion yuan special bonds for stabilizing growth and expanding investment has been issued, primarily to support central enterprises in major equipment updates, technological transformation, and strategic emerging industries [1] - The total planned scale of the special bonds for stabilizing growth and expanding investment is 500 billion yuan, issued in batches by China National Assets Management and China Chengtong [1] Technology Innovation Bonds - As of June 7, the total issuance of technology innovation bonds has exceeded 374.8 billion yuan, with 39 financial institutions issuing 223.9 billion yuan and 108 non-financial enterprises issuing 150.998 billion yuan [2] - The Trading Association supports 73 non-financial enterprises in issuing 97.72 billion yuan of technology innovation bonds [2] Macro Dynamics - The central bank conducted a 173.8 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation with a rate of 1.40%, maintaining the same level as before, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [3] Regional Highlights - Zhejiang Province's new local government debt limit for 2025 is set at 378.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 22.3%, exceeding the national average [4] - 91.4% of the new debt limit is allocated for special bonds, primarily for public welfare projects with certain returns [4] - Zhejiang will accelerate the bond issuance process to support major project construction and growth stabilization goals [4] Refinancing Bonds - Shandong Province plans to issue 15.918 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds to replace existing hidden debts, with specific issuance amounts of 1.226 billion yuan, 7.642 billion yuan, and 7.05 billion yuan [5] - Yunnan Province intends to issue 52.7 billion yuan in refinancing special bonds for the same purpose, with issuance amounts of 15 billion yuan, 17.7 billion yuan, and 20 billion yuan [6] Issuance Dynamics - Dengzhou State-owned Assets Holding and Operation Group plans to issue 400 million yuan in corporate bonds, with a credit rating of AA and a stable outlook [7] - Shangqiu Development Investment Group is set to issue 500 million yuan in short-term financing bonds, with a subscription range of 1.6% to 2.6% [8][9] - CITIC Securities has submitted a registration for a public offering of 30 billion yuan in perpetual subordinated bonds, rated AAA [10] - Henan Water Investment Group has completed the issuance of 1.6 billion yuan in corporate bonds at a rate of 2.01% [11] - Xinyang Innovation Industry Group plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan in corporate bonds, rated AA+ [12] - Sanmenxia Investment Group is set to issue 3 billion yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds, rated AA+ [13] Market Sentiment - Huatai Fixed Income reports that the bond market is relatively balanced between bullish and bearish forces, making it difficult to break the current oscillation pattern [14] - The central bank's recent policy signals and major banks' active purchases of short-term interest rate bonds have improved market sentiment [14]