编者按：2025年是"十四五"规划收官之年。这一年，在外部压力持续加大、内部挑战交织的复杂形势 下，中国经济顶压前行、向新向优发展，保持了总体平稳、稳中有进的发展态势，在高质量发展的轨道 上坚实迈进，为"十五五"新征程奠定了坚实基础。 ■本报记者吴晓璐刘琪孟珂刘萌毛艺融张芗逸寇佳丽郭冀川 这一年，从内需市场的纵深开拓，到外贸竞争力的强大韧性；从资本市场的量质齐升，到房地产行业的 新模式探索……是韧性当先的故事，更是向新而行的故事，为中国经济穿越更长周期、实现可持续增 长，提供了坚实的底气和清晰的路径。《证券日报》今日起推出年终盘点系列，一起回首2025年的精彩 故事并展望2026年的新蓝图。 即将过去的2025年，A股总市值超百万亿元、上证指数强势突破4000点、"A+H"上市成热潮、并购重组 市场持续活跃、上市公司投资价值进一步提升……资本市场投融资综合改革纵深推进，耐心资本不断壮 大，为新质生产力发展提供长期资金支持，支撑高水平科技自立自强。 不仅如此，作为"十四五"规划收官之年，各地各部门瞄准全方位扩大内需持续发力，外贸新业态新动能 增长强劲，人工智能加速赋能千行百业，现代化产业体系建设持续推进，中国式 ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the strategic importance of expanding domestic demand as a key driver for economic growth and stability, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach to enhance consumption and investment [1][3][12] Group 1: Economic Growth Drivers - Domestic demand, particularly consumption and investment, is identified as the primary engine for economic growth, with a projected retail sales total of 48.3 trillion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 3.5% year-on-year increase [2] - Fixed asset investment is expected to reach 52.1 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 3.1% increase from the previous year, although investment growth remains sluggish due to long return cycles [2][9] Group 2: Consumption Enhancement - To address insufficient consumption, the focus should be on boosting consumer confidence and willingness, with strategies aimed at increasing income and employment opportunities [4][6] - A stable social security system is crucial for enhancing consumer confidence, which in turn supports consumption growth [6][7] Group 3: Investment Optimization - The article advocates for reforms in market access and investment management to stimulate effective investment, aiming to improve the quality of the supply system and align it with demand structures [9][10] - Emphasis is placed on creating a favorable investment environment to attract private capital into key projects and sectors [10][11] Group 4: Interconnection of Consumption and Investment - The relationship between consumption and investment is highlighted as mutually reinforcing, with strategies to enhance consumer demand leading to increased investment opportunities [12][13] - The article suggests that effective investment can create new demand, thereby driving consumption, particularly in emerging sectors such as digital and green industries [13]

Group 1: Core Insights - The central theme emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand as a strategic foundation for economic stability and security, with a focus on enhancing consumption and investment to drive growth [1][3][11] Group 2: Economic Indicators - In 2024, China's total retail sales of consumer goods are projected to reach 48.3 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.5%, while online retail sales continue to lead globally for 12 consecutive years [2] - Fixed asset investment for the year is expected to be 52.1 trillion yuan, with a growth rate of 3.1%, although there has been a decline in investment in the first three quarters of the year [2] Group 3: Challenges to Growth - Insufficient domestic demand, particularly in consumption, is identified as a major constraint on economic growth, with consumption contributing only 44.5% to economic growth in 2024 [2][3] - The investment growth remains weak, with a 0.5% decline in fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in the first three quarters of the year [2] Group 4: Strategies for Consumption Enhancement - Key strategies to stimulate consumption include enhancing consumer confidence and expectations, focusing on income growth, and improving employment opportunities [4][5] - Reforms in social security systems are crucial to reduce uncertainty and enhance consumer confidence, thereby increasing consumption [6] Group 5: Investment Optimization - The need for effective investment is highlighted, with calls for reforms in market access and investment management to create a conducive environment for investment [9][10] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of aligning investment with consumer demand to ensure that investments are effective and beneficial [12] Group 6: Interconnection of Consumption and Investment - The relationship between consumption and investment is underscored, with a focus on how consumption can drive investment and vice versa, creating a virtuous cycle that expands domestic demand [11][12]

Group 1 - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has achieved high-quality completion of most policy goals, including economic growth, labor productivity, and R&D investment, with significant progress in urbanization and life expectancy indicators [9][10][11] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" is positioned as a critical period for achieving Chinese-style modernization, focusing on solidifying the foundation for modernization and comprehensive development [7][8] Group 2 - Four industrial clues are identified for the "15th Five-Year Plan": fostering new productive forces, expanding domestic demand, advancing the construction of a unified national market, and enhancing resource utilization and protection [4][12][16] - The macroeconomic environment shows new momentum in domestic growth, with a need to address insufficient effective demand, emphasizing the importance of technology innovation and expanding domestic consumption [13][14] Group 3 - The focus on new productive forces includes the development of emerging industries, traditional industry upgrades, and the stimulation of digital economy innovation [4][12][18] - Expanding domestic demand involves promoting consumption through initiatives like "old-for-new" exchanges and investing in human capital, alongside infrastructure investment to support urban renewal [4][12][16] Group 4 - The construction of a unified national market aims to reduce internal competition and enhance efficiency in sectors like new energy, traditional cycles, and consumer goods [4][12][16] - Resource utilization and protection strategies emphasize the development of the marine economy and the safeguarding of strategic mineral resources [4][12][16] Group 5 - The market outlook suggests that technology innovation sectors such as TMT, new energy, and biomedicine will continue to be key investment themes, supported by policy and industry growth [4][12][16] - Historical analysis indicates that A-share market trends around the announcements of previous five-year plans show a pattern of initial growth followed by sector rotation and differentiation [4][12][16]

Core Viewpoint - The central economic strategy for China emphasizes the comprehensive expansion of domestic demand as a primary driver for economic growth and stability, addressing current challenges of insufficient domestic demand and external uncertainties [1][2]. Group 1: Investment in People - "Investment in people" is crucial for enhancing human capital and driving structural reforms in supply-side economics, especially in the context of low consumption rates and an aging population [2][4]. - The concept of "investment in people" focuses on optimizing resource allocation to promote comprehensive human development and meet the public's needs for a better life [7][11]. - The government is identified as the primary investor in human capital, with significant implications for education, healthcare, and social services [3][4]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Social Development - "Investment in people" plays a vital role in economic growth by releasing consumption potential, optimizing investment structures, and enhancing social adaptability [3][10]. - The relationship between "investment in people" and "investment in material" is complementary, where both are necessary for sustainable economic development [8][9]. - The economic benefits of investing in human capital are shown to surpass those of material investments, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach [9][10]. Group 3: Current Challenges and Needs - China's current low consumption rate, which dropped from 45.5% in 2001 to 39.1% in 2023, highlights the urgent need for "investment in people" to enhance consumer capacity and stimulate demand [24][26]. - The aging population and declining labor force participation necessitate a shift from demographic dividends to talent dividends through human capital investment [26][29]. - The disparity in educational attainment and the slow improvement in labor force education levels call for significant investment in education and training [27][30]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - To effectively implement "investment in people," policies should focus on enhancing education, employment, and healthcare systems, ensuring equitable access and quality [29][30][33]. - A comprehensive approach to public service systems is essential, integrating "investment in people" with material investments to create a virtuous cycle of economic growth and improved living standards [29][30]. - Specific measures include increasing funding for education, promoting lifelong learning, and enhancing healthcare services to support overall human development [30][33].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for macroeconomic policies to adapt and strengthen in response to short-term fluctuations in economic data, particularly focusing on stimulating consumption, increasing effective investment, and stabilizing employment to achieve annual economic and social development goals [3][6]. Group 1: Economic Performance - In the first half of the year, China's economy maintained a steady growth rate of 5.3%, despite facing pressures from a complex international environment and extreme weather conditions in July [5]. - July's economic data showed a slowdown in key indicators, with retail sales growth at 3.7%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, marking the lowest rate for the year [6][10]. Group 2: Domestic Circulation - The State Council has repeatedly emphasized strengthening domestic circulation as a strategic move to ensure stable economic growth amid external uncertainties [6][10]. - The focus is on enhancing the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies, responding to market concerns, and stabilizing expectations [6][7]. Group 3: Consumption and Investment - The State Council meeting outlined measures to stimulate consumption, including removing restrictive measures in the consumption sector and fostering new growth points in service and new consumption [7][9]. - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, with efforts to invigorate private investment and improve the policy environment for private enterprises [9][10]. Group 4: Real Estate Market - The meeting highlighted the importance of consolidating the real estate market's recovery, with measures to promote urban renewal and improve housing conditions [11][12]. - Recent local policies have aimed to enhance market confidence and support the stabilization of the real estate sector, with various cities implementing new measures to boost housing demand [12][13]. Group 5: Urban Renewal - Urban renewal is identified as a key focus for high-quality urban development, with expectations for accelerated policy implementation in the second half of the year [13][14]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasizes the need for a new model of real estate development to better meet housing demands [14].

Group 1 - The core focus of the recent State Council meeting is to stimulate consumption potential, expand effective investment, and stabilize employment to ensure the well-being of the population [2][4] - The meeting emphasizes the need for strong macroeconomic policies to counteract short-term economic fluctuations and to maintain the momentum of economic recovery [3][4] - The government aims to strengthen domestic circulation to mitigate uncertainties in international markets, with recent data showing a slowdown in retail sales and fixed asset investment growth [3][6] Group 2 - The meeting outlines specific measures to boost consumption, including the removal of restrictive measures in the consumption sector and the promotion of new growth points in service and new consumption [4][5] - Investment remains crucial for stabilizing growth, with a focus on enhancing private investment and improving the policy environment for private enterprises [5][6] - Recent statistics indicate a 3.9% increase in private project investment (excluding real estate) from January to July, with notable growth in sectors such as accommodation and catering [6] Group 3 - The meeting stresses the importance of consolidating the real estate market's stabilization efforts, with a focus on urban renewal and the renovation of dilapidated housing [7][8] - Various local governments are optimizing real estate policies to boost market confidence, with new measures being introduced in cities like Beijing and Tianjin [7][8] - Urban renewal is highlighted as a key component for high-quality urban development, with an emphasis on meeting housing demands and improving living conditions [8]