1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Fed's third rate cut this year has influenced the commodity futures market. Different commodities have different market performances, fundamentals, and trading strategies due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, policy changes, and inventory fluctuations [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Commodity Categories Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: After the Fed's third rate cut this year, precious metal prices first declined and then rose, with the silver price approaching $62 per ounce [1]. - Fundamentals: The Fed announced the third rate cut this year and the purchase of short - term bonds. Powell's speech was considered dovish, and there were internal voting differences in the FOMC. Domestic gold ETFs had outflows, and inventories in different markets showed different changes [1]. - Trading strategy: As the Fed cut rates as expected, gold prices regained strength, so it is recommended to go long. For silver, the overseas market is tight, but domestic inventories have been accumulating for many days, so it is recommended to take profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Silver - Market trends are affected by the same Fed rate - cut event. The overseas market is tight, while domestic inventories have been increasing [1]. - The trading strategy is related to the inventory situation, suggesting taking profits in long positions temporarily [1]. Base Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved due to discussions on bond extension and mortgage贴息. The CPI and PPI continued to weaken. The Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan also had an impact. The supply - side copper mine shortage will be difficult to change in the medium term, and the demand - side showed certain trading prices [2]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [2]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the main electrolytic aluminum contract increased by 0.73% compared to the previous trading day, and there were corresponding price differences and LME prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the weekly aluminum product start - up rate declined slightly [2]. - Trading strategy: Both long and short positions decreased, and the aluminum price retreated from a high level. However, the favorable macro - environment and low inventory provided support, so it is expected that the price will maintain a range - bound oscillation [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the main alumina contract decreased by 2.71% compared to the previous trading day, and there was a corresponding price difference [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, some alumina plants started maintenance, and the operating capacity decreased, but there was no large - scale production reduction. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production [2]. - Trading strategy: Before large - scale production reduction occurs, the spot price will continue to decline under pressure. Be cautious of technical rebounds in the futures market due to the concentrated stop - profit of short positions [2][3]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it opened flat and oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price decreased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the number of open furnaces decreased this week, mainly in Sichuan. Social inventories increased slightly, and warehouse receipt inventories also increased. On the demand side, the polysilicon and organic silicon industries were promoting anti - involution, and the production and start - up rates of related industries showed certain trends [3]. - Trading strategy: The current supply - demand is stable, but social inventories have increased slightly for three consecutive weeks. There may be further production cuts in the southwest, and environmental protection disturbances need to be monitored in the northwest. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: Affected by news, the LC2605 contract price increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The spot price of Australian spodumene concentrate increased. The supply showed certain production trends, and the demand of related industries such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials was expected to change. The inventory situation showed a trend of destocking, but the shortage degree was narrowing [3]. - Trading strategy: Currently, there is a situation of strong reality and weak seasonal expectations. The short - term upward price drive is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to inventory data and downstream inventory trends. It is recommended to consider selling call options with high implied volatility or shorting on rallies [3]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Wednesday morning, it rushed up and then oscillated narrowly throughout the day. The main 01 contract price increased, the position decreased, the variety's settled funds decreased, and the warehouse receipt volume increased [3]. - Fundamentals: The weekly production was stable, and the industry inventory increased slightly this week. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells declined, and the downstream production plan in December decreased significantly compared to the previous month. The new photovoltaic installation in October had certain changes, and the policy implementation was expected to put pressure on the fourth - quarter photovoltaic installation [3]. - Trading strategy: After the Guangzhou Futures Exchange added two new delivery brands on Friday, it is expected that the main contract price will first return to the core spot trading range. It is necessary to focus on the new brands' production capacity, supply stability, and product quality to judge their long - term impact on the market [3]. Tin - Market performance: Tin prices oscillated strongly yesterday [4]. - Fundamentals: Domestic market sentiment improved, the CPI and PPI continued to weaken, and the Fed's dovish rate cut and bond - buying plan had an impact. The supply - side tin mine shortage continued, and the demand - side showed certain premium and inventory trends. There was also new information about the war in the Congo tin - producing area [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips [4]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of rebar closed at 3108 yuan per ton, up 24 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The building material apparent demand decreased in different statistical calibers, and the production also decreased. The steel supply - demand was weak, and there was significant structural differentiation. Rebar futures had a large discount and low valuation, while hot - rolled coil futures' discount was basically flat and the valuation was high. Steel mills continued to lose money, and production may continue to decline slightly [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to close short positions and try to go long on the rebar 2605 contract, with the RB05 reference range of 3080 - 3130 [5]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of iron ore closed at 767 yuan per ton, up 8.5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The arrival volume of iron ore decreased, and the shipment volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The iron ore supply - demand was weak, and the iron water production decreased significantly. The fourth - round coke price increase failed, and the first - round price cut was implemented and the second - round was proposed. Steel mills' profits were poor, and future blast furnace production may decline steadily. The supply was in line with seasonal rules and slightly increased year - on - year. The iron ore maintained a forward discount structure but with a relatively low absolute level, and the valuation was moderately high [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the iron ore 2605 contract, with the I05 reference range of 750 - 780 [5]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main 2605 contract of coking coal closed at 1078 yuan per ton, down 5 yuan from the previous night's closing price [5]. - Fundamentals: The iron water production decreased significantly, and steel mills' profits deteriorated. The first - round price cut was implemented, and the second - round was proposed. The inventory at each supply - side link was differentiated, and the overall inventory level was moderate. The futures were at a premium to the spot, and the forward premium structure was maintained, with a relatively high futures valuation [5]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to try to go long on the coking coal 2605 contract, with the JM05 reference range of 1060 - 1100 [5]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: The overnight CBOT soybean price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, there was a slight near - term production reduction, and the long - term South American supply was expected to be large. On the demand side, the US soybean crushing was strong, and the export was still in a game. The global supply - demand was improving marginally but still in a loose state [8]. - Trading strategy: The US soybean price was weak, reflecting the expectation of a South American bumper harvest. The domestic market was strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and the medium - term situation depends on the tariff policy and production in the producing areas [8]. Corn - Market performance: The corn futures price was weak, and the spot price was falling rapidly [8]. - Fundamentals: The national corn channel inventory was low, and there was a need for inventory building. The short - term procurement was concentrated in the northeast, causing logistics tension. The rising spot price intensified farmers' reluctance to sell, resulting in a short - term supply shortage. However, the continuous rise in corn prices increased the losses of downstream deep - processing enterprises, and the feed - end procurement enthusiasm would decline after continuous inventory replenishment. The short - term spot price is expected to decline gradually [8]. - Trading strategy: As the spot price weakens, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [8]. Oils and Fats - Market performance: The Malaysian palm oil futures price fell yesterday due to a negative report [8]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the estimated November production in Malaysia decreased by 5% month - on - month, entering the seasonal production reduction period. On the demand side, the estimated November exports decreased by 28% month - on - month. Overall, the near - term Malaysian palm oil inventory continued to accumulate, and the long - term was in the seasonal production reduction period [8]. - Trading strategy: There are no major contradictions in the short - term, with a weak seasonal production reduction and differentiation among oil varieties. It is necessary to pay attention to future production and biodiesel policies [8]. Cotton - Market performance: The US cotton futures price started to rebound, and the international crude oil price stopped falling and rebounded [8]. - Fundamentals: Internationally, the US cotton planting and harvesting areas in 25/26 had certain data, and the Turkey's cotton import volume in October decreased. Domestically, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price oscillated upward, with strong buying support below. Spinning enterprises adjusted their raw material procurement strategies, planning to replenish inventory before the Chinese New Year, and the high - count yarn sales were good [8]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to buy on dips, with a strategy based on the 13700 - 14000 yuan per ton range [8]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg futures price was weak, and the spot price was stable [8]. - Fundamentals: The number of laying hens in production decreased, the enthusiasm for culling decreased, and the capacity reduction slowed down. The market sales were average, and traders mainly purchased on a need - to - buy basis, with increasing wait - and - see sentiment and accumulating inventory. The rising vegetable price supported the egg price, and currently, there is no major supply - demand contradiction, so the egg price is expected to oscillate [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the lack of major supply - demand contradictions, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig futures price fell, and the spot price rose slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: The demand is expected to increase seasonally, and the supply - demand pressure has eased compared to the previous period. Before the Winter Solstice, there will be a concentrated slaughter in the breeding sector, with weak pig prices in the first half of the month. As the demand continues to increase later, the pig price is expected to stop falling and rebound. It is necessary to pay attention to the recent slaughter volume changes [8]. - Trading strategy: Due to the seasonal increase in demand, the futures price is expected to oscillate [8]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main LLDPE contract fell slightly yesterday. The low - price spot price in North China was 6530 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, and the import window was closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production facilities were put into operation, some facilities reduced production or stopped, and the domestic supply pressure eased. The import window remained closed, and the future import volume is expected to decrease slightly. Overall, the domestic supply pressure increased but at a slower pace. On the demand side, the current downstream agricultural film is in the off - season, and the demand decreased month - on - month, while the demand in other fields remained stable [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the basis was weak, the supply - demand was weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production capacity will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. PP - Market performance: The main PP contract fell slightly yesterday. The PP spot price in East China was 6150 yuan per ton, the 01 contract basis was stable, the overall market trading was average, the overseas US dollar price fell slightly, the import window was closed, and the export window was open [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, in the short - term, new production facilities were still being put into operation, some facilities unexpectedly stopped, and the domestic supply gradually increased, and the supply pressure in the market increased. The export window was open. On the demand side, the downstream start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy this year over - exploited part of the fourth - quarter demand [10]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the industrial chain inventory decreased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the basis was weak, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will still oscillate weakly as it enters the delivery month, with the upside space significantly restricted by the import window. In the long - term, the new production facilities will decrease in the first half of next year, and the supply - demand pattern will improve. It is recommended to seize the opportunity to buy the far - month contract on dips [10]. Crude Oil - Market performance: Oil prices weakened again yesterday. The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace proposal, and if a peace agreement is reached, the risk premium may be reversed, and the support for oil prices will be broken. The EIA weekly report showed that the US crude oil inventory drawdown was lower than expected, the gasoline and diesel inventories increased more than expected, and the EIA raised the US annual supply forecast by 20,000 barrels per day, indicating strong US supply resilience [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, due to US sanctions on Russia, the Russian oil production and exports in December need to be monitored, and the impact of the US - Venezuela military conflict on Venezuelan exports also needs attention. OPEC+ plans to nominally increase production by 130,000 - 140,000 barrels per day per month in December, but the actual monthly increase is expected to be less than 100,000 barrels per day. At the same time, the increased production in the US, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Norway continues to be released, and the supply pressure is still large. On the demand side, the refinery start - up rates in Europe and the US have fully recovered, but the terminal demand is still in the off - season. The OECD oil product inventory is higher than the five - year average, and both water and land inventories have accumulated [10]. - Trading strategy: The probability of supply surplus is high at the end of the year and in Q1, and crude oil should still be used as a short - position allocation. It is possible to wait for a premium due to geopolitical events and then short on rallies [10]. Styrene - Market performance: The main EB contract fell slightly yesterday. The spot price in East China was 6500 yuan per ton, and the market trading atmosphere was average. The overseas US dollar price rose slightly, and the import window was still closed [10]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the pure benzene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and the future pure benzene supply - demand is still weak, with a large overall contradiction. The styrene inventory is at a normal - to - high level, and short - term maintenance increased, with a marginal improvement in supply - demand. On the demand side, the finished - product inventory of downstream enterprises is still at a high level, the demand is in the off - season, the start - up rate decreased month - on - month, and the national subsidy over - exploited part of the future demand [10][11]. - Trading strategy: In the short - term, the pure benzene inventory increased slightly, the supply - demand was weak, the valuation was low, and the overall contradiction was still large; the styrene inventory decreased slightly, was at a normal - to - high level, the basis was stable, the supply - demand weakened with the resumption of facilities, and due to the repeated situation in Russia - Ukraine, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short - term, with the upside space restricted by the import window. In the medium - to - long -

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [7] - Pulp: Neutral [10] 2. Core Views - Cotton: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, increasing market uncertainty. The new - year production increase expectation suppresses the market, and downstream demand is weak, so short - term cotton prices may continue to decline [3]. - Sugar: Typhoons in China have affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, which may support sugar prices. However, the Sino - US trade friction has intensified, and short - term market fluctuations may increase [7]. - Pulp: The tariff war has a negative impact on the macro - level. The pulp fundamentals have not improved significantly, and short - term pulp prices may continue to oscillate at the bottom [10]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,300 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day [1]. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,642 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,789 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton [1]. - Exports: In September 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.308 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.42% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.99%. From January to September 2025, the total exports were 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.32% [1]. Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2]. - Domestic: Cotton inventory reduction is fast, but the pre - holiday cotton purchase by ginneries was cautious. The new cotton harvest has accelerated, and the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - The short - term cotton price has a risk of further decline due to the trade war and production increase expectation [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5470 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton (-0.47%) from the previous day [4]. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4]. - Exports: India's 2024/25 sugar exports from February to September 2025 totaled 775,000 tons [4]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's sugar production in the first half of September increased year - on - year, suppressing the raw sugar price. The raw sugar price has limited downward space due to ethanol price support [5]. - Domestic: The domestic sugar sales in the peak season were poor, and imports in August hit a new high. Typhoons have affected Guangdong and Guangxi, and the impact on production needs to be tracked [6]. Strategy - The sugar price may be supported by the typhoon - affected production, but short - term market fluctuations may intensify due to trade friction [7]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 4842 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+1.13%) from the previous day [8]. - Spot: The spot prices of different types of pulp in Shandong showed different trends, with some prices rising and some falling [8]. Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have plans to increase prices, reduce production, and transfer production, but the actual impact on supply is limited. Domestic port inventory remains high [9]. - Demand: Global pulp consumption is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The traditional peak season has not seen large - scale raw material purchases [9]. Strategy - The pulp price may continue to oscillate at the bottom due to the tariff war and weak fundamentals [10].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the fourth quarter, with new cotton hitting the market, the expected output is over 7.3 million tons, subjecting Zhengzhou cotton futures to significant hedging pressure. Consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was lackluster, but the overall industrial chain showed slight improvement with gradually decreasing finished - product inventories. The price range is expected to be between 12,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [1][38]. - Internationally, macro - factors still bring great uncertainty to the cotton market. The Fed may cut interest rates within the year, potentially supporting US cotton prices. Fundamentally, the supply of cotton in the Northern Hemisphere will gradually increase in the fourth quarter, while consumption remains stable, with no major fundamental contradictions. The operating range of US cotton is expected to be between 60 - 75 cents/pound [2][38]. - The recommended operation strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is mainly band trading [3][39]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a trend of weakening in a range and then breaking down. The price of the main contract was roughly between 13,450 - 14,350 yuan/ton. Influenced by factors such as good cotton growth in Xinjiang, extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the price fluctuated [5]. - In the third quarter of 2025, ICE US cotton showed a weakening trend in a range, with the main contract price between 65.8 - 69.50 cents/pound. Affected by factors like high Brazilian cotton exports, Indian tariff exemptions, and changes in US weather and USDA reports, the price fluctuated [6]. b) Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: Most institutions predict an increase in the cotton planting area in the 2024/25 season, mainly driven by the expansion in Xinjiang. The comprehensive meteorological conditions in the cotton - growing areas were favorable, laying a good foundation for an increase in yield. Different institutions have different yield forecasts, with the report's estimate ranging from 7.3 - 7.7 million tons. The final yield depends on the weather during the harvest period, but a bumper harvest is likely [8][10][11]. - **Seed - cotton Purchase Price**: As of September 22, 2025, the average boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was about 83.2%. The expected purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton is 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and the current purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton is around 7.2 yuan/kg. Zhengzhou cotton futures above 14,000 yuan/ton face significant hedging pressure [14]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 40% increase from the previous month but a 51.6% decrease year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year - on - year decrease. Future imports are expected to show a short - term month - on - month slow increase and a long - term low - level oscillation, with an annual import volume of about 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [19]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: Since September, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures has affected textile enterprises' sentiment, with cotton yarn prices dropping by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. However, the decline in cotton yarn prices was smaller than that of cotton, widening the cotton - yarn price spread and slightly improving textile enterprises' profits. The operating rate of textile enterprises did not rise significantly during the peak season, while that of weaving enterprises increased relatively significantly. Since August, the finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises have been decreasing [21][25][27]. c) International Market Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September cotton supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are expected to increase, while the beginning and ending inventories will decrease. The ending inventory will reach a four - year low [30]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. There are still two interest - rate meetings in 2025, and most Fed members expect two more interest - rate cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year. The expectation of interest - rate cuts may lead to a weaker US dollar, which may support US cotton prices [34].

Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]

Report Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, with the US cotton market expected to oscillate. In China, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted, and new pressure will be exerted on cotton prices in the fourth quarter [2] - For sugar, the raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [5][6] - For pulp, short - term anti - involution policies boost the market, but there is supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited, with the focus on whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,589 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's pure cotton yarn imports were about 93,300 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were about 589,600 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is in a supply - loose pattern, and the US cotton market is expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to be low. However, the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, the terminal demand is weak, and the cotton price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upside of the 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and long - term high - selling is advised [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,334 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,285 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market. In the second half of the year, the supply pressure remains, and the demand improvement is limited [8] Strategy - Neutral. It is difficult for the pulp price to break away from the bottom in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation are recommended [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, and the domestic cotton price will be under pressure in the medium - long term; the upward space of sugar price is limited due to the expected increase in supply; the pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the July USDA report is bearish as it raises global cotton production and ending stocks. There is insufficient weather - related narrative on the supply side, and the global cotton market will be supply - loose in the 25/26 season. Domestically, the rapid depletion of commercial cotton stocks and weather disturbances support the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and the weak demand in the off - season limit the upward space. In the long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the cotton price [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is strong, the medium - long - term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the second half of June, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased more than expected, with a 12.86% year - on - year decline in cane crushing volume and a 12.98% decline in sugar production [2][3] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under long - term downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar price [4] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. In the medium - long term, the view of shorting on rallies is maintained [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market showed different trends, with some prices rising slightly and some falling [6] Market Analysis - The pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, as the port inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][4][7] 2. Core Views - **Cotton**: The international market shows a decrease in global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, with a decline in ending stocks. US cotton has seen improved drought conditions but a worsening in seedling conditions. Domestically, commercial cotton inventories are rapidly decreasing, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is entering the off - season [2] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, and the production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is also expected to rise. The supply pressure is already reflected. Zhengzhou sugar's domestic sales progress is fast, and it may follow the external market to rebound slightly, but the increase in imports will suppress the rebound space [4] - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp is abundant, with high port inventories. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream demand is weak. Although the delivery rules have changed, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 13,645 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton (+0.26%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,832 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton. As of June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 501%, and the cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% [1] - **Market Analysis**: Internationally, the USDA report adjusted down global cotton production and consumption in the 25/26 season, and ending stocks decreased. US cotton has improved drought but worsened seedling conditions. Domestically, commercial inventories are rapidly decreasing, but new - year planting area is increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The tariff policy is uncertain, and the market is affected by weather. There is a strong expectation of a domestic cotton harvest in the new year, and demand is weakening [2] Sugar - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5757 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton (+0.82%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6070 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton. It is predicted that the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season will be 590 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5%, but the sugar production is expected to reach 41.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [2][3] - **Market Analysis**: The Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, and the production in India and Thailand in the Northern Hemisphere is also expected to rise. The supply pressure is already reflected. Zhengzhou sugar's domestic sales progress is fast, and it may follow the external market to rebound slightly, but the increase in imports will suppress the rebound space [4] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar mainly follows the trend of raw sugar. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production estimate and domestic import rhythm [4] Pulp - **Market News and Key Data**: The closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5070 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton (-1.29%). The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The import pulp spot market price continued to decline [5] - **Market Analysis**: The suspension of the "Bratsk" brand pulp for delivery has intensified market fluctuations, but the pressure on the near - month contract from old "Bratsk" pulp remains. The supply is abundant, with high port inventories, and demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream demand is weak [6] - **Strategy**: Neutral. Although the delivery rules have changed, the 09 contract is still mainly priced by "Bratsk" and "Ural" pulp. The industry lacks positive drivers, and the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom in the short term [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View - The market sentiment improvement drives the rebound of Zhengzhou cotton futures [1] Group 3: Fundamental Tracking Futures - CF2509 closed at 13,360 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.87%, and 13,435 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.56%. Its trading volume was 314,494 lots, an increase of 132,900 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 750,372 lots, an increase of 12,557 lots [2]. - CY2509 closed at 19,630 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and 19,685 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.28%. Its trading volume was 7,918 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 12,592 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [2]. - ICE US cotton 07 closed at 65.58 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.40% [2]. Warehouse Receipts - The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 10,870, a decrease of 69 from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 371, an increase of 2 [2]. - The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change from the previous day, and the effective forecast was 0, with no change [2]. Spot - The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,596 yuan/ton, an increase of 144 yuan or 1.00% from the previous day [2]. - The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,355 yuan/ton, an increase of 120 yuan or 0.84% from the previous day [2]. - The price in Shandong was 14,565 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day [2]. - The price in Hebei was 14,450 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - The 3128B index was 14,561 yuan/ton, an increase of 18 yuan or 0.12% from the previous day [2]. - The international cotton index M (CNCottonM) was 75.23 cents/pound, an increase of 0.21% from the previous day [2]. - The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 21,723 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan or 0.00% from the previous day [2]. Spreads - The CF9 - 1 spread increased by 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 increased by 30 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. Group 4: Macro and Industry News - Domestic cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with partial good transactions. Traders were the main buyers, and the mainstream sales basis changed little. The sales basis of 2024/25 Southern Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was mostly at CF09 + 1350 - 1450, and there were a small number of low - price offers at 1250 - 1350 for inland self - pick - up. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck was still weak [3]. - The pure - cotton yarn market entered the traditional off - season, with fewer orders and slower sales for spinning mills. The cotton yarn price showed a downward trend. The all - cotton grey fabric market was dull, with few transactions reported by manufacturers, mainly due to the lack of orders from downstream customers or their wait - and - see attitude. Weaving mills had weak confidence in the future market [3]. - Last Friday, ICE cotton rose slightly, following the overall commodity market trend. The market continued to focus on the US cotton sowing progress and awaited the crop growth report after the Monday session [3]. Group 5: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral view [6]