Report Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a pattern of loose supply. Zhengzhou cotton prices are supported by inventory tightening before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space is restricted. In the medium - long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress cotton prices [2] - The global sugar market is expected to increase production in the new year. Zhengzhou sugar has a strong spot price due to fast sales, but there is still pressure from imported sugar, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [4][5] - The pulp market has supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom [7][8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the cotton 2509 contract was 14,180 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton or 0.32% from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,411 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,543 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 19, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 16.7%, up 3.1 percentage points from the previous week, 3.8% slower than the same period last year. As of July 21, India's weekly cotton listing volume was 13,400 tons, a year - on - year decline of 58%, and the cumulative listing volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.0817 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 4% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply of the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be loose. The US cotton futures price is expected to fluctuate with the macro - market sentiment. Domestically, the rapid de - stocking of commercial cotton inventory and the non - issuance of sliding - scale duty quotas support Zhengzhou cotton prices, but the strong expectation of a new cotton harvest and weak terminal demand restrict the upward space [2] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upward space of the far - month 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the sugar 2509 contract was 5,834 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan/ton or 0.19% from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [4] - According to the OECD - FAO, the global sugar price is expected to decline slightly, but there are multiple uncertainties. India is expected to remain the third - largest sugar exporter, and the proportion of ethanol production in sugar production is expected to increase from 9% to 22% by 2034 [4] Market Analysis - The international sugar market is trading the expectation of global production increase, and the rebound space of raw sugar is limited. The spot price of domestic sugar is strong, but the high import profit and increasing import volume put pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [4][5] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate within a range. In the long term, the sugar price is in a downward cycle, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of the pulp 2509 contract was 5,414 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan/ton or 0.86% from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Arauco coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of Russian coniferous pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton [6] - The import wood pulp spot market price was strong, but the high - price transactions were not smooth. The prices of some grades of coniferous, broad - leaf, and other pulps increased, but the downstream procurement volume did not increase significantly [6] Market Analysis - The pulp price rebounded in the short term due to the anti - involution policy, but the supply pressure remains in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited [7] Strategy - Be neutral. In the short term, the pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation [8]

Report Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, with the US cotton market expected to oscillate. In China, the inventory is expected to be tight before the new cotton is on the market, but the continuous upward space of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted, and new pressure will be exerted on cotton prices in the fourth quarter [2] - For sugar, the raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports, and the long - term sugar price is in a downward cycle [5][6] - For pulp, short - term anti - involution policies boost the market, but there is supply pressure in the second half of the year, and the demand improvement is limited, with the focus on whether the demand can pick up in the fourth quarter [8] Summary by Commodity Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 14,185 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,480 yuan/ton, up 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,589 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's pure cotton yarn imports were about 93,300 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to June were about 589,600 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton market in the 25/26 season is in a supply - loose pattern, and the US cotton market is expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, and the import volume in the third quarter is expected to be low. However, the new cotton is expected to have a good harvest, the terminal demand is weak, and the cotton price will be under pressure in the fourth quarter [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short term, the 09 contract may continue to rise, but the upside of the 01 contract is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,839 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton (+0.22%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged. In June 2025, China's imports of syrup and premixed powder decreased year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The raw sugar's rebound space is limited due to the expected global production increase. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm, but there is pressure from imports [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound trading is recommended, and long - term high - selling is advised [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,334 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan/ton (+0.79%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5,285 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - The short - term anti - involution policy boosts the market. In the second half of the year, the supply pressure remains, and the demand improvement is limited [8] Strategy - Neutral. It is difficult for the pulp price to break away from the bottom in the short term, and short - selling opportunities after the end of macro - stimulation are recommended [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, and the domestic cotton price will be under pressure in the medium - long term; the upward space of sugar price is limited due to the expected increase in supply; the pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the July USDA report is bearish as it raises global cotton production and ending stocks. There is insufficient weather - related narrative on the supply side, and the global cotton market will be supply - loose in the 25/26 season. Domestically, the rapid depletion of commercial cotton stocks and weather disturbances support the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and the weak demand in the off - season limit the upward space. In the long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the cotton price [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is strong, the medium - long - term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the second half of June, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased more than expected, with a 12.86% year - on - year decline in cane crushing volume and a 12.98% decline in sugar production [2][3] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under long - term downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar price [4] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. In the medium - long term, the view of shorting on rallies is maintained [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market showed different trends, with some prices rising slightly and some falling [6] Market Analysis - The pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, as the port inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [2] - Sugar: Neutral [5] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Core Views - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to be in a supply - loose pattern. US cotton futures prices are likely to oscillate, and domestic cotton prices are supported in the short - term but face pressure in the long - term [2] - The global sugar market is in an increasing production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices in the long - run. Brazilian raw sugar may rebound in the short - term, and Zhengzhou sugar's upside is limited [4][5] - The pulp supply pressure persists, and the demand is weak. The pulp price may remain at the bottom in the short - term [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton (+0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,175 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,193 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. As of July 5, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 7.3%, up 2.3 percentage points week - on - week, 5% slower than last year [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the supply - side weather narrative is insufficient this year, and the global cotton market is supply - loose. US cotton futures prices are expected to oscillate. Domestically, the commercial inventory is decreasing rapidly, supporting prices in the short - term. However, the new cotton production is likely to increase, and the demand in the off - season is weak. In the long - term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral to bearish strategy. Recommend shorting distant - month contracts on rallies [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5747 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5865 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. Brazil exported 67.73 tons of sugar and molasses in the first week of July, a 34.63% decrease from last year [3] Market Analysis - ICE raw sugar prices are under long - term pressure due to the increasing production cycle. However, there may be a short - term rebound. Zhengzhou sugar's spot price is firm due to low inventory, but the upside is limited by potential imports [4][5] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Expect the sugar price to oscillate weakly in the third quarter, and focus on the arrival rhythm of imported sugar [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5086 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market prices showed mixed trends [5][6] Market Analysis - Supply: The wood pulp import increased in the first half of 2025, and domestic production capacity is expected to increase. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. Demand: Affected by policies and the off - season, the demand is weak, and the improvement in the second half of the year is limited [7] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The supply - demand contradiction is difficult to ease, and the pulp price may stay at the bottom in the short - term [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2509合约13645元/吨，较前一日变动+35元/吨，幅度+0.26%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14832元/吨，较前一日变动+65元/吨，现货基差CF09+1187，较前一日变动+30；3128B棉全国均价14938元/吨， 较前一日变动+55元/吨，现货基差CF09+1293，较前一日变动+20。 近期市场资讯，据CAI公布的数据统计显示，截至2025年6月22日当周，印度棉花周度上市量17.4万吨，同比增长 501%；印度2024/25年度的棉花累计上市量490.75万吨，同比下滑5%。CAI累计上市量达24/25年度预测平衡表产量 （495万吨）的99%，同比快6%。 市场分析 农产品日报 | 2025-06-26 郑糖期价延续反弹，纸浆走势依旧偏弱 棉花观点 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，6月USDA供需报告调减25/26年度全球棉花产量及消费量，由于产量减幅大于 消费，叠加期初供应减少，期末库存环比下降。美棉主产区近期降雨偏多，旱情较前期持续改善，其他国家供应 端天气的叙事性目前也不足。不过美棉苗情有所转差，推动美棉期价近日连续反弹。后续重点 ...

棉花：市场情绪好转带动郑棉期货反弹 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 棉花基本面数据 | | 名 称 | 单 位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | CF2509 | 元/吨 | 13,360 | 0.87% | 13435 | 0.56% | | | CY2509 | 元/吨 | 19,630 | 0.18% | 19685 | 0.28% | | | ICE美棉07 | 美分/磅 | 65.58 | 0.40% | | - | | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | CF2509 | 手 | 314,494 | 132,900 | 750,372 | 12,557 | | | CY2509 | 手 | 7,918 | -1,999 | 12,592 | 1,045 | | | | | 昨日仓单量 | 较前日变动 | 有效预报 | 较前日变动 | | | 郑棉 | 张 | 10 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate within a range due to the deterioration of the international trade environment, lack of domestic macro - level support, and weak overall industrial performance [2] - **Sugar**: Zheng sugar generally follows the trend of raw sugar. The short - term price is expected to be firm, and the medium - term price is under pressure due to the expected Brazilian harvest [4][5] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures price has limited room for further decline as it has reached the support level, but there is no obvious upward driving force currently [8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2505 contract was 13,590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,605 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,864 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply - demand in Pakistan**: In the 2025/26 season, the sown area is expected to increase by about 5% to 2.1 million hectares, and the total output is expected to increase by 5.7% to about 1.2 million tons. Import demand may decrease by 10.8% to 1.07 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase by about 1% to 2.29 million tons. The ending inventory is expected to be 470,000 tons, down about 6.6% [1] Market Analysis - **International**: Last week, the main contract of US cotton rebounded due to reduced planting area intentions and a weaker US dollar, but the significant decline in export contract volume pressured further price increases. The short - term supply is loose, and demand may be further restricted by Sino - US trade frictions [1] - **Domestic**: In the 24/25 season, there was an unexpected increase in production in China, and the commercial inventory is at a historically high level. In the 25/26 season, the cotton planting area is expected to increase. The downstream demand has improved slightly in the recent two weeks but is still weak compared to the peak season [1] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2505 contract was 6,129 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan/ton (+0.89%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,200 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,990 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [3] - **Production in India**: As of March 31, 2025, in the 2024 - 25 season, 113 sugar mills were still operating, with a cumulative cane crushing volume of 265.326 million tons and a sugar production of 24.85 million tons. In the same period of the previous season, 204 mills were operating, with a cane crushing volume of 298.104 million tons and a sugar production of 30.25 million tons [3] Market Analysis - **Raw Sugar**: Although there are disputes over India's production, the impact has been mostly reflected in the market. Brazil has had less rainfall since February, but the actual impact of the drought is yet to be evaluated. The production in the central - southern region of Brazil is expected to increase strongly in the 25/26 season [4] - **Zheng Sugar**: Driven by the strong rebound of the external market, Zheng sugar once exceeded the previous high. Although the domestic production is increasing this season, the short - term import of sugar is limited, and the control policy of syrup and premixed powder is tightened. The domestic sugar price is expected to be firm in the short term [4][5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2505 contract was 5,638 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (-0.11%) from the previous day [6] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 6,450 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [6] - **Market Price Trend**: The spot price of imported wood pulp showed a downward trend. The prices of some grades in Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Guangdong decreased by 20 - 60 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - **Supply**: Some overseas pulp mills had maintenance in the first quarter, and the supply was expected to decrease, leading to continued increases in the US dollar quotes from February to March. However, the global shipment volume remained high, and the domestic pulp imports increased significantly from January to February, with a high expected arrival volume in March [7] - **Demand**: European demand did not improve significantly, and the European wood pulp port inventory remained at a historical high. The domestic downstream peak season was lackluster, and paper mills mainly made rigid - demand purchases. There were concerns about the digestion of high - level port inventories [7]