白银大概率避免关税，或将面临价格修正 美国关键矿产232条款关税调查结果预计将于本周六(1月10日)公布，这一决定将对Comex白银和铂族金 属价格产生重大市场影响。 追风交易台消息，1月8日，花旗Kenny Hu研究团队认为，不征收关税的情况下，金属将从美国流出至 其他地区，缓解当前极度紧张的市场状况并压低伦敦现货价格。 而在关税情景下，将存在约15天的实施窗口，这会诱发"抢运美国"的短暂行为，从而在征税前推动美国 基准定价和交易所期货溢价(EFP)进一步上涨，而在征税后进口下降，届时非美金属的供给才会改善、 伦敦现货价格压力缓解。 调查结果原定于2025年10月12日提交，特朗普总统有90天时间采取行动，这意味着截止日期约为1月10 日(本周六)。然而花旗认为，考虑到涉及的商品数量众多，特朗普总统的行动可能会无限期推迟，这样 一来，在此期间银价和铂族金属的价格很可能会继续上涨。 截至1月7日，EFPs定价显示市场预期铂金关税税率约为12.5%，钯金约7%，白银约5.5%。这些隐含税 率在高度波动中反映了市场的不确定性。 （EFPs定价的预期关税税率） 由于美国对进口白银严重依赖，花旗研究团队倾向于白银不征 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued four announcements regarding export controls on rare earths, lithium batteries, superhard materials, etc., with rare earth - related items being the focus, and the controls will take effect on November 8 [7]. - The silver price reached a new high, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue, but attention should be paid to the results of the US tariff investigation and the possible release of invisible silver inventories [8]. - For the Container Freight Index (European Line), a 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly, the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has divergence on resumption of navigation, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - For nickel, the contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricts each other, and the nickel price may continue to fluctuate within a range, but if the contradiction on either side intensifies in the fourth quarter, the volatility of Shanghai nickel will increase [10][12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Reading Highlights - **Silver**: The price hit a record high of $51.221, mainly due to tight overseas spot supply, potential 232 - clause tariff investigations, and the transfer of London silver inventory to New York. The silver rental rate is at a historical high, and the upward trend is expected to continue, but attention should be paid to the US tariff investigation results and the release of invisible inventories [8]. - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: A 2 - 4 positive spread long - short position can be entered lightly. The 2510 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1050 - 1150 points. The probability of full resumption of navigation in December and January next year is low, and the 2512 contract will maintain a wide - range shock, the 2602 contract has opportunities after over - decline, and the 2604 and far - month contracts are bearish in the long - term [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesian nickel mine issues increase supply concerns, but global refined nickel inventory is accumulating, and the market has expectations of slowdown in implicit restocking. The short - term long - short contradictions restrict each other, and the nickel price may fluctuate within a range [10][12]. Commodity Research Morning Report Precious Metals - **Gold**: Continued to reach new highs, with the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract closing at 914.32 yuan, up 7.24% [15][20]. - **Silver**: Approached the $50 mark, with the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract closing at 11169 yuan, up 5.54% [15][20]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The rise in the US dollar limited price increases. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 86,750 yuan, up 4.38% [15][24]. - **Zinc**: Had a slight rebound, with the Shanghai Zinc main contract closing at 22315 yuan, up 2.25% [15][27]. - **Lead**: Inventory increase restricted price recovery, with the Shanghai Lead main contract closing at 17115 yuan, up 1.03% [15][30]. - **Tin**: Accelerated upward, with the Shanghai Tin main contract closing at 287,090 yuan, up 4.75% [15][33]. - **Aluminum**: Fluctuated within a range, with the Shanghai Aluminum main contract closing at 21090 yuan [15][37]. - **Alumina**: Trended weakly, with the Shanghai Alumina main contract closing at 2875 yuan [15][37]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [15][37]. - **Nickel**: The contradiction between smelting inventory accumulation and mine - end expectations restricted each other, and the price may fluctuate within a range [15][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The short - term supply - demand and cost factors restricted each other, and the steel price fluctuated [15][40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium Carbonate**: De - stocking accelerated, and it fluctuated. The 2511 contract closed at 73,340 yuan [15][47]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream resumed production, and a short - selling strategy at high prices was recommended [15][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news fermented again, and attention should be paid to actual implementation [15][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it trended strongly and fluctuated, with the I 2601 contract closing at 790.5 yuan, up 1.28% [15][54]. - **Rebar**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][57]. - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of electric - furnace production cuts, and it fluctuated widely [15][58]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The market was in a wait - and - see atmosphere and fluctuated widely [15][62]. - **Coke**: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][66]. - **Coking Coal**: Expectations were volatile, and it fluctuated widely [15][67]. - **Log**: Fluctuated repeatedly [15][69].

Group 1 - Gold futures are currently trading around 911.20 yuan per gram, with a slight increase of 0.46% [1] - The highest price reached was 918.88 yuan per gram, while the lowest was 903.40 yuan per gram, indicating a bullish short-term trend [1] - Key resistance levels for gold futures are identified between 876 yuan per gram and 880 yuan per gram, with important support levels ranging from 829 yuan per gram to 860 yuan per gram [4] Group 2 - The Trump administration has decided not to impose tariffs on foreign generic drugs, following months of internal debate [3] - The administration's investigation under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 had previously considered a 100% tariff on brand-name drugs, which was postponed to allow for negotiations [3] - The decision not to impose tariffs on generic drugs significantly reduces the scope of the investigation and contradicts previous campaign promises [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges from tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market [4] - On a two-year basis, revenues increased by 12% and demand increased by 21%, leading to significant market share gains [4] - Net income rose by 79%, with free cash flow generated amounting to $81 million in the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England surged by 76% in Q2, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside is projected to reach approximately $37 million-$39 million in demand for 2025 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in Europe, particularly with the opening of RH Paris, which has exceeded traffic expectations compared to RH New York [13] - The company anticipates that the opening of additional galleries in London and Milan will further enhance brand awareness and revenue potential in Europe [21][76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open four additional design galleries in 2025 [20] - The strategy includes creating immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] - The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, with a significant portion of upholstered furniture expected to be produced in the U.S. by the end of fiscal 2025 [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential impact of tariffs and inflation on the industry, noting that strong brands may benefit from market dislocation while smaller companies may struggle [14][24] - The company revised its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 9%-11% and adjusted operating margins of 13%-14% [18] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term view and separating market signals from noise during challenging economic conditions [22][24] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a significant transformation in its product offerings, which has led to inefficiencies in inventory turnover but is expected to improve as new concepts are launched [62] - The company is optimistic about the potential for cash flow generation in the coming years, forecasting $250 million-$300 million in cash flow for 2025 [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the expected cash flow? - Management indicated that real estate monetization is opportunistic and not a necessity, as the company focuses on being a real estate developer rather than a long-term owner [30][40] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension in spring? - Management expressed confidence in the launch, stating that unless there are unexpected tariff issues, the extension is on track [56][58] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that brand awareness in Europe is growing, particularly in Paris, and they expect strong performance from upcoming galleries in London and Milan [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges from tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market [4] - On a two-year basis, revenues increased by 12% and demand increased by 21%, indicating significant market share gains [4] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA rose to 20.6%, both up by 340 basis points year-over-year [4] - Net income surged by 79%, with free cash flow generated amounting to $81 million in the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England rose by 76% in Q2, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside generated $46 million in demand in its second full fiscal year, with expectations for the Mayfair gallery to perform even better [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in Europe, particularly with the opening of RH Paris, which has exceeded traffic expectations compared to RH New York [13] - The company anticipates significant brand-building opportunities in key European markets, including London and Milan, set to open in 2026 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open four additional design galleries in 2025 [20] - The strategy includes creating immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] - The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, projecting a decrease from 16% in Q1 to 2% in Q4 2025 [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential impact of new tariffs on the furniture industry, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to avoid significant job losses [52] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, projecting revenue growth of 9% to 11% for fiscal 2025, with adjusted operating margins between 13% and 14% [18] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining focus on long-term investments despite current economic challenges [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to delay the launch of a new brand extension to spring 2026 due to tariff uncertainties [17] - The company is also working on reducing excess inventory, with a target of $200 million to $300 million in inventory reduction by year-end [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the improvement in free cash flow? - Management indicated that they are opportunistic regarding real estate and do not see a pressing need to pursue monetization at this time [30][41] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension? - Management expressed confidence in the launch of the new brand extension, barring any unforeseen tariff issues [58] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that while it is early to provide specific figures, they are optimistic about the performance of galleries in England and Paris, with expectations for strong brand awareness in London [75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges in the housing market and tariff uncertainties [4] - Net income rose by 79%, with free cash flow of $81 million generated in the quarter [5] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.6%, both up by 340 basis points year-over-year [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England surged by 76%, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside generated $46 million in demand in its second full fiscal year, indicating strong performance potential for future locations [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing significant share gains and strategic separation, with a two-year revenue increase of 12% and demand increase of 21% [4] - Current demand trends suggest that the gallery in England could reach approximately $37 million to $39 million in demand for 2025 [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open additional design galleries in key markets such as London and Milan [20][21] - The recent opening of RH Paris is seen as a pivotal moment, with expectations of it becoming a major brand-building experience [6][20] - The company aims to create immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs and inflation on the industry, noting that many smaller companies may struggle to survive [13][22] - The company is optimistic about its positioning to benefit from potential market dislocation caused by tariffs, while also acknowledging the challenges ahead [13][24] - Future guidance for fiscal 2025 includes revenue growth of 9% to 11% and free cash flow expectations of $250 million to $300 million [18] Other Important Information - The company is shifting sourcing out of China, with expectations that receipts will decrease significantly by Q4 2025 [15] - The company plans to delay the launch of a new brand extension to spring 2026 due to tariff uncertainties [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the improvement in free cash flow? - Management indicated that they do not see a need to pursue real estate monetization aggressively, as they are opportunistic and primarily real estate developers [30][42] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension? - Management expressed confidence in the launch of the new brand extension, barring any unforeseen tariff issues, and highlighted the potential for significant market impact [58][60] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that while it is early to provide specific figures, the strong start in Paris and improvements in England suggest positive revenue potential [71][74]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury furniture brand RH experienced a decline in stock prices due to President Trump's announcement of potential furniture-specific tariffs, overshadowing previous gains from favorable economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - RH's shares fell as much as 10% before recovering to a 5% loss on Monday following Trump's tariff announcement [1]. - The stock had previously gained after Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell hinted at possible interest rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a major tariff investigation on furniture imports, with results expected in 50 days, potentially leading to new tariffs on furniture from various countries [3]. - Current tariffs on China are around 55%, while those on Vietnam are 20%, raising concerns for furniture makers like RH that have significant exposure to these markets [3]. Group 3: Company Operations - In 2024, RH sourced only 10% of its furniture from the U.S., with the remaining 90% coming from Vietnam, China, Europe, Indonesia, and India [4]. - The company had been recovering, with a 12% revenue increase in the recent quarter, but this was from a low base due to a depressed housing market [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - New tariffs could hinder RH's recovery, although the company may have the ability to raise prices as a premium manufacturer if lower interest rates stimulate housing demand [5]. - However, if demand remains weak, RH may face pressure to cut prices, impacting profit margins [5].

US Treasury Market - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 7.44 basis points to 3.707%[2] - The 5-year US Treasury yield fell by 7.18 basis points to 3.769%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 5.45 basis points to 4.261%[4] Economic and Market Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish stance indicates economic risks justify rate cuts[3] - Fitch Ratings confirmed the US "AA+" rating with a stable outlook[3] - Canada will eliminate retaliatory tariffs on several US products[3] - In the first seven months of this year, China attracted foreign investment of 467.34 billion RMB[3] Stock Market Performance - Nasdaq Index closed at 21,496.53, up by 1.88%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,631.74, up by 1.89%[5] - S&P 500 Index closed at 6,466.91, up by 1.52%[5] - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,825.76, up by 1.45%[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by Trump regarding a significant tariff investigation on furniture imports, which has led to a sharp decline in the stock prices of several furniture retailers [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Investigation Announcement - Trump announced a major tariff investigation on furniture imports to the U.S., indicating potential tariffs to be imposed within 50 days [1]. - The investigation is part of a broader initiative under the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed critical to national security [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, stock prices of major furniture retailers fell significantly in after-hours trading, with Wayfair down by 10%, RH down by 9.9%, and Williams-Sonoma down by 6.7% [2]. - In contrast, La-Z-Boy, which primarily produces furniture in North America, saw its stock rise by approximately 3% [2]. Group 3: Broader Context of Tariffs - The furniture tariff investigation is part of a larger trend where the U.S. government is exploring tariffs on various industries, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wind energy [4]. - The investigation into furniture imports follows previous tariff announcements on steel, aluminum, copper, and automobiles [4].

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between the United States and Canada are easing, with Canada announcing the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian products [1][2]. Group 1: Canada-U.S. Trade Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the cancellation of multiple retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, effective September 1, while maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily [2][3]. - Carney emphasized that the measures are a response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian goods and highlighted the restoration of free trade for the majority of goods between the two countries [3][4]. - The average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods is approximately 5.6%, which is relatively low compared to other trading partners [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Investigations - President Trump announced a significant tariff investigation on imported furniture, stating that the investigation will be completed within 50 days, with unspecified tariffs to be applied to furniture from other countries [6][7]. - This investigation aims to revitalize the U.S. domestic furniture manufacturing industry, which has seen price increases due to previous tariff hikes on major furniture importing countries, including Vietnam [7][8]. - The consumer price index (CPI) for furniture and bedding has shown significant price increases, with June and July seeing rises of 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, following a period of deflation [7].