所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-10-10 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 期货研究 1 期货研究 2025-10-10 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 商务部连发四则公告对稀土、锂电池、超硬材料等出口管制 观点分享： 10 月 9 日，商务部发布了两项关于加强稀土相关物项出口管制的公告，分别对境外相关 稀土物项、稀土相关技术实施出口管制；并联合海关总署明确对超硬材料、稀土设备和原辅 料、钬等 5 种中重稀土、锂电池和人造石墨负极材料相关物项实施出口管制。上述出口管制 将于 11 月 8 日正式实施。稀土相关物项是本轮出口管制的重点。商务部新闻发言人指出， 稀土相关物项具有军民两用属性，对其实施出口管制是国际通行做法。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 白银 | ★★★★ | 白银：昨日白银价格大涨，伦敦银最高冲破 50 美元，达到 51.221 美元，创出历史新高，且 相较 COMEX 出现大幅升水。主要原因在于海外现货紧俏，自 8 月以来，白银被纳入关键矿 产清单后，将面临潜在的 232 条款关税调查，最高可达 50%的进口关税。cmx-lbma 价差骤 然 ...

今日周四（10月9日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于900附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报911.20元/克， 涨幅0.46%，最高触及918.88元/克，最低下探903.40元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看涨走势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 据报道称，特朗普政府表示，不打算对外国仿制药征收关税；此前，特朗普政府内部就是否对在美国销 售的绝大多数药物征收关税的问题已争论了数月。 特朗普政府依《1962年贸易扩张法》第232条款开展关税调查，曾计划10月1日对品牌药征100%关税后 推迟，意在留谈判空间。白宫及商务部均称未积极讨论或不会对仿制药加征关税，但《华尔街日报》称 决定未定。此前政府内部就仿制药生产回流及关税作用辩论数月。此次不征仿制药关税使调查范围大幅 缩减，违背其竞选承诺。部分官员担忧加税致药价涨、供应缺且难促美本土生产盈利；而一些商务部官 员认为必要，可防供应链混乱。保护主义者主张认定依赖外企有国安风险，配合支持政策能实现本土生 产。白宫称与商务部无分歧。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为876元/克至880元/克，而重要支撑位区间则位于829 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges from tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market [4] - On a two-year basis, revenues increased by 12% and demand increased by 21%, leading to significant market share gains [4] - Net income rose by 79%, with free cash flow generated amounting to $81 million in the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England surged by 76% in Q2, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside is projected to reach approximately $37 million-$39 million in demand for 2025 [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in Europe, particularly with the opening of RH Paris, which has exceeded traffic expectations compared to RH New York [13] - The company anticipates that the opening of additional galleries in London and Milan will further enhance brand awareness and revenue potential in Europe [21][76] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open four additional design galleries in 2025 [20] - The strategy includes creating immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] - The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, with a significant portion of upholstered furniture expected to be produced in the U.S. by the end of fiscal 2025 [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential impact of tariffs and inflation on the industry, noting that strong brands may benefit from market dislocation while smaller companies may struggle [14][24] - The company revised its fiscal 2025 guidance, projecting revenue growth of 9%-11% and adjusted operating margins of 13%-14% [18] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a long-term view and separating market signals from noise during challenging economic conditions [22][24] Other Important Information - The company is experiencing a significant transformation in its product offerings, which has led to inefficiencies in inventory turnover but is expected to improve as new concepts are launched [62] - The company is optimistic about the potential for cash flow generation in the coming years, forecasting $250 million-$300 million in cash flow for 2025 [25] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the expected cash flow? - Management indicated that real estate monetization is opportunistic and not a necessity, as the company focuses on being a real estate developer rather than a long-term owner [30][40] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension in spring? - Management expressed confidence in the launch, stating that unless there are unexpected tariff issues, the extension is on track [56][58] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that brand awareness in Europe is growing, particularly in Paris, and they expect strong performance from upcoming galleries in London and Milan [76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges from tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market [4] - On a two-year basis, revenues increased by 12% and demand increased by 21%, indicating significant market share gains [4] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA rose to 20.6%, both up by 340 basis points year-over-year [4] - Net income surged by 79%, with free cash flow generated amounting to $81 million in the quarter [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England rose by 76% in Q2, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside generated $46 million in demand in its second full fiscal year, with expectations for the Mayfair gallery to perform even better [6] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing strong demand trends in Europe, particularly with the opening of RH Paris, which has exceeded traffic expectations compared to RH New York [13] - The company anticipates significant brand-building opportunities in key European markets, including London and Milan, set to open in 2026 [21] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open four additional design galleries in 2025 [20] - The strategy includes creating immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] - The company is also shifting sourcing out of China, projecting a decrease from 16% in Q1 to 2% in Q4 2025 [15] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the potential impact of new tariffs on the furniture industry, emphasizing the need for a balanced approach to avoid significant job losses [52] - The company is optimistic about its growth trajectory, projecting revenue growth of 9% to 11% for fiscal 2025, with adjusted operating margins between 13% and 14% [18] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining focus on long-term investments despite current economic challenges [24] Other Important Information - The company plans to delay the launch of a new brand extension to spring 2026 due to tariff uncertainties [17] - The company is also working on reducing excess inventory, with a target of $200 million to $300 million in inventory reduction by year-end [61] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the improvement in free cash flow? - Management indicated that they are opportunistic regarding real estate and do not see a pressing need to pursue monetization at this time [30][41] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension? - Management expressed confidence in the launch of the new brand extension, barring any unforeseen tariff issues [58] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that while it is early to provide specific figures, they are optimistic about the performance of galleries in England and Paris, with expectations for strong brand awareness in London [75]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue increased by 8.4% and demand increased by 13.7% in Q2 2025, despite challenges in the housing market and tariff uncertainties [4] - Net income rose by 79%, with free cash flow of $81 million generated in the quarter [5] - Adjusted operating margin improved to 15.1%, and adjusted EBITDA margin reached 20.6%, both up by 340 basis points year-over-year [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Gallery demand in RH England surged by 76%, while online demand increased by 34% [5] - The gallery in the English countryside generated $46 million in demand in its second full fiscal year, indicating strong performance potential for future locations [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing significant share gains and strategic separation, with a two-year revenue increase of 12% and demand increase of 21% [4] - Current demand trends suggest that the gallery in England could reach approximately $37 million to $39 million in demand for 2025 [5] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding its global presence, with plans to open additional design galleries in key markets such as London and Milan [20][21] - The recent opening of RH Paris is seen as a pivotal moment, with expectations of it becoming a major brand-building experience [6][20] - The company aims to create immersive physical experiences that blend residential and retail spaces, enhancing customer engagement [19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs and inflation on the industry, noting that many smaller companies may struggle to survive [13][22] - The company is optimistic about its positioning to benefit from potential market dislocation caused by tariffs, while also acknowledging the challenges ahead [13][24] - Future guidance for fiscal 2025 includes revenue growth of 9% to 11% and free cash flow expectations of $250 million to $300 million [18] Other Important Information - The company is shifting sourcing out of China, with expectations that receipts will decrease significantly by Q4 2025 [15] - The company plans to delay the launch of a new brand extension to spring 2026 due to tariff uncertainties [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Is real estate monetization still something the company would pursue given the improvement in free cash flow? - Management indicated that they do not see a need to pursue real estate monetization aggressively, as they are opportunistic and primarily real estate developers [30][42] Question: How much visibility is there into the planned launch of the new brand extension? - Management expressed confidence in the launch of the new brand extension, barring any unforeseen tariff issues, and highlighted the potential for significant market impact [58][60] Question: What are the expected revenues per market or gallery in Europe? - Management noted that while it is early to provide specific figures, the strong start in Paris and improvements in England suggest positive revenue potential [71][74]

Core Viewpoint - The luxury furniture brand RH experienced a decline in stock prices due to President Trump's announcement of potential furniture-specific tariffs, overshadowing previous gains from favorable economic signals [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - RH's shares fell as much as 10% before recovering to a 5% loss on Monday following Trump's tariff announcement [1]. - The stock had previously gained after Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell hinted at possible interest rate cuts [1]. Group 2: Tariff Implications - Trump announced a major tariff investigation on furniture imports, with results expected in 50 days, potentially leading to new tariffs on furniture from various countries [3]. - Current tariffs on China are around 55%, while those on Vietnam are 20%, raising concerns for furniture makers like RH that have significant exposure to these markets [3]. Group 3: Company Operations - In 2024, RH sourced only 10% of its furniture from the U.S., with the remaining 90% coming from Vietnam, China, Europe, Indonesia, and India [4]. - The company had been recovering, with a 12% revenue increase in the recent quarter, but this was from a low base due to a depressed housing market [5]. Group 4: Market Outlook - New tariffs could hinder RH's recovery, although the company may have the ability to raise prices as a premium manufacturer if lower interest rates stimulate housing demand [5]. - However, if demand remains weak, RH may face pressure to cut prices, impacting profit margins [5].

US Treasury Market - The 2-year US Treasury yield decreased by 7.44 basis points to 3.707%[2] - The 5-year US Treasury yield fell by 7.18 basis points to 3.769%[4] - The 10-year US Treasury yield dropped by 5.45 basis points to 4.261%[4] Economic and Market Insights - Federal Reserve Chair Powell's dovish stance indicates economic risks justify rate cuts[3] - Fitch Ratings confirmed the US "AA+" rating with a stable outlook[3] - Canada will eliminate retaliatory tariffs on several US products[3] - In the first seven months of this year, China attracted foreign investment of 467.34 billion RMB[3] Stock Market Performance - Nasdaq Index closed at 21,496.53, up by 1.88%[5] - Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 45,631.74, up by 1.89%[5] - S&P 500 Index closed at 6,466.91, up by 1.52%[5] - Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,825.76, up by 1.45%[5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent announcement by Trump regarding a significant tariff investigation on furniture imports, which has led to a sharp decline in the stock prices of several furniture retailers [1][2]. Group 1: Tariff Investigation Announcement - Trump announced a major tariff investigation on furniture imports to the U.S., indicating potential tariffs to be imposed within 50 days [1]. - The investigation is part of a broader initiative under the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed critical to national security [4]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, stock prices of major furniture retailers fell significantly in after-hours trading, with Wayfair down by 10%, RH down by 9.9%, and Williams-Sonoma down by 6.7% [2]. - In contrast, La-Z-Boy, which primarily produces furniture in North America, saw its stock rise by approximately 3% [2]. Group 3: Broader Context of Tariffs - The furniture tariff investigation is part of a larger trend where the U.S. government is exploring tariffs on various industries, including pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and wind energy [4]. - The investigation into furniture imports follows previous tariff announcements on steel, aluminum, copper, and automobiles [4].

Core Viewpoint - The trade tensions between the United States and Canada are easing, with Canada announcing the cancellation of several retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods in response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian products [1][2]. Group 1: Canada-U.S. Trade Relations - Canadian Prime Minister Carney announced the cancellation of multiple retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, effective September 1, while maintaining tariffs on U.S. automobiles, steel, and aluminum temporarily [2][3]. - Carney emphasized that the measures are a response to the U.S. lowering tariffs on Canadian goods and highlighted the restoration of free trade for the majority of goods between the two countries [3][4]. - The average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods is approximately 5.6%, which is relatively low compared to other trading partners [3][4]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Investigations - President Trump announced a significant tariff investigation on imported furniture, stating that the investigation will be completed within 50 days, with unspecified tariffs to be applied to furniture from other countries [6][7]. - This investigation aims to revitalize the U.S. domestic furniture manufacturing industry, which has seen price increases due to previous tariff hikes on major furniture importing countries, including Vietnam [7][8]. - The consumer price index (CPI) for furniture and bedding has shown significant price increases, with June and July seeing rises of 0.4% and 0.9%, respectively, following a period of deflation [7].

Core Viewpoint - The speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has significantly influenced the gold market, leading to a notable price increase following his remarks on potential interest rate adjustments [1]. Group 1: Market Reaction - Gold experienced a rebound after hitting a low of $3321, surging to $3378 post-Powell's speech, and closing at $3371, forming a strong bullish candlestick [1]. - The market is closely monitoring Powell's comments for further insights, as any new perspectives on the Federal Reserve's policy could impact market sentiment on Monday [1]. Group 2: Future Outlook - If the market interprets Powell's remarks as dovish or if significant risk events occur over the weekend, gold prices could break above $3380, with targets set around $3400 [2]. - Conversely, if Powell's comments are seen as hawkish or geopolitical risks diminish, a drop below $3360 could lead to short positions, targeting $3340-$3330 [2]. - The gold market is currently at a critical technical juncture, and the upcoming week may set the tone for the fourth-quarter trends [2].