证券研究报告：医药生物 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2025-12-11 股票投资评级 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 公司基本情况 | 最新收盘价（元） | 12.93 | | --- | --- | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股）7.57 | / 7.57 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿元）98 | / 98 | | 周内最高/最低价 52 | 18.36 / 12.93 | | 资产负债率(%) | 46.5% | | 市盈率 | 15.03 | | 第一大股东 | 华润三九医药股份有限 | | 公司 | | 研究所 分析师:盛丽华 SAC 登记编号:S1340525060001 Email:shenglihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:龙永茂 SAC 登记编号:S1340523110002 Email:longyongmao@cnpsec.com 昆药集团(600422) 集采执标和内部改革持续落地，看好来年稳步修复 l 受集采执行晚于预期、内部渠道重构等因素影响，业绩 阶段性承压 公司发布 2025 年三季报：2025Q1-3 公司实现营业收入 47.51 亿 元（-18.08%，重述后，下同）， ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][3][17] Core Views - The company experienced a phase of slowing growth, with revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 reaching 21.628 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.02%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.322 billion yuan, up 10.54% year-on-year [1][9] - The gross margin improved to 39.6% in Q3 2025, benefiting from lower raw material costs and automation upgrades, while the company increased spending on consumer guidance, advertising, and promotions [2][10] - Internal reforms have deepened since 2024, enhancing operational efficiency and solidifying the company's leading market position despite short-term growth slowdowns [2][13] Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 6.398 billion yuan, a 2.48% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 1.408 billion yuan, up 3.40% year-on-year [1][9] - The company anticipates a slight decline in revenue growth due to a weak restaurant environment, adjusting revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to 28.698 billion, 30.699 billion, and 32.631 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 7.059 billion, 7.664 billion, and 8.324 billion yuan [3][15] - The company maintains a stable return on equity (ROE) of around 20.9% for 2025, with earnings per share (EPS) projected at 1.21 yuan [4][18] Market Position and Strategy - The company is leveraging its leading position in the seasoning industry to capture market share, supported by a new employee stock ownership plan aimed at binding core employee interests [2][13] - The company’s sales and management expense ratios increased to 7.4% and 3.4% respectively in Q3 2025, reflecting a strategic focus on marketing and consumer engagement [2][10] - The company’s current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 31.8, 29.3, and 27.0 times respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][17]

Core Insights - The World Bank's latest forecast predicts Chile's economic growth rate will reach 2.6% in 2025, slightly above the Chilean government's estimate of 2.5% and within the Central Bank's range of 2.25%-2.75% [1] - The same growth rate of 2.6% is also expected for 2026 [1] - The growth is attributed to increased private consumption and enhanced mineral exports, although there is a noted lag in adopting new technologies [1] - Emerging enterprises entering the market are expected to significantly contribute to productivity growth and job creation, further stimulating economic activity [1] Recommendations and Context - In light of declining global demand, falling commodity prices, increased uncertainty in trade and market access policies, and rising corporate relocations, the World Bank has issued a series of recommendations [1] - The recommendations include calls for internal reforms to attract investment, creating a favorable policy and regulatory environment for businesses [1] - Suggested investments in logistics, energy, and digital infrastructure aim to lower entry barriers, expand financing channels, and improve capital allocation [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with total revenue at 1.155 billion yuan, down 20.21% year-on-year, and net profit at 61.7843 million yuan, down 46.69% [1] - The company's short-term debt pressure has increased, with a current ratio of 0.1, indicating potential liquidity issues [1] - Despite the decline in net profit, the gross margin improved to 59.61%, up 2.92% year-on-year, while the net margin decreased to 5.35%, down 33.19% [1] Financial Performance - Total revenue for 2025 was 1.155 billion yuan, compared to 1.448 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a decrease of 20.21% [1] - Net profit for 2025 was 61.7843 million yuan, down from 116 million yuan in 2024, a decline of 46.69% [1] - The company’s operating cash flow per share decreased to 0.04 yuan, down 39.37% year-on-year [1] Cost Structure - Total expenses (selling, administrative, and financial) amounted to 517 million yuan, accounting for 44.72% of revenue, an increase of 13.89% year-on-year [1] - The company’s financial health is concerning, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.91% and a current ratio of only 0.1, indicating potential liquidity challenges [3] Business Model and Strategy - The company relies heavily on research and marketing for its business performance, which requires careful analysis of the underlying drivers [3] - Recent internal reforms have shown positive results, with management team adjustments aimed at revitalizing operations and improving business performance [5] - The company aims to maintain operational cost control while striving for positive growth in a competitive market [5] Investment Insights - The company has a historical median ROIC of 7.38%, indicating weak investment returns, with a particularly poor performance in 2021 [3] - The largest fund holding the company’s shares is the Bosera Global China Education (QDII-ETF), which has seen a 36.98% increase in the past year [4]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The baking industry is experiencing a shift in consumer channels, with traditional baking shops decreasing from 410,000 in 2021 to 340,000 currently, representing a nearly 9% decline since 2014 [1] - Supermarkets are increasing their focus on baking and ready-to-eat sections, with Yonghui's baking and ready-to-eat ratio rising from 5% to 20% after adjustments [1] Company Performance - In 2024, the company's supermarket channel achieved revenue of 1 billion, with approximately 90% contributed by Sam's Club, making it a crucial channel for the company's frozen baking business [2] - Due to adjustments in Sam's baking business, some products were delisted and relaunched, impacting revenue growth. However, new products like corn mochi bread received positive market feedback, leading to a recovery with over 40% year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [2] Product and Market Dynamics - The company's cream products have seen significant growth, with revenue reaching 1.06 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of over 60%. This growth is attributed to the price advantage of domestic cream over imported options [3][4] - The company has optimized its product offerings by reducing SKUs from over 1,000 to around 700, focusing resources on star and cash cow products to minimize losses from underperforming items [5] Operational Efficiency - The company has maintained stable gross margins despite rising costs in the baking industry, indicating effective supply chain reforms [6] - The introduction of advanced technology and optimized raw materials has improved product stability and performance, with prices being 20% lower than imported brands [4] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its internal operations, including procurement and team structure, to ensure long-term sustainability and efficiency improvements [8] - A shift in sales commission structure has been implemented to encourage sales personnel to promote new and mid-tier products, rather than focusing solely on top-selling items [7] Future Outlook - The company anticipates that ongoing internal reforms, increased capacity utilization, and improved demand could lead to significant performance enhancements and valuation increases in the future [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q1 performance exceeded expectations, with significant internal reforms beginning to show results [7] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 38.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, while net profit is expected to reach 2.68 billion yuan, up 266.9% year-on-year [7] - The company is expected to maintain strong revenue growth driven by good demand for cream products and the introduction of new products in the membership-based supermarket channel [7] Financial Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 34.99 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 20.22% [1] - The projected net profit for 2024A is 2.68 billion yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 266.94% compared to the previous year [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2025E is estimated at 2.01 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.47 [1] - The company expects to achieve net profits of 3.4 billion yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 4.7 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 27%, 22%, and 14% [7] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a gross sales margin of 19.9% in Q1 2025, indicating an improvement in profitability despite rising costs [7] - The management expense ratio has decreased, contributing to improved profitability metrics [7] - The company anticipates that the cost side will not deteriorate, and there is still room for improvement in expense ratios [7]

Core Insights - The company achieved a total revenue of 14.667 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.056 billion yuan, up 63.74% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 1.041 billion yuan, an increase of 108.03% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Revenue and Profitability - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 1.821 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.32%, but a net loss of 232 million yuan was recorded [1] - The company's sales volume for 2024 was 4 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with U8 sales reaching 696,000 kiloliters, up 31.4% year-on-year [2] - The company’s revenue per ton increased by 1.6% year-on-year, while the ton price decreased by 0.6% year-on-year [2] Group 2: Cost Management and Efficiency - The company experienced a 6.6% decrease in ton cost year-on-year, leading to an overall gross margin increase of 3.1 percentage points to 40.7% [3] - The total number of employees decreased by 1,440 year-on-year, contributing to a reduction in overall expenses, with the expense ratio declining by 1.26 percentage points to 21.76% [3] - The net profit margin improved by 2.7 percentage points to 7.2% year-on-year, with the subsidiary Liqueur achieving a net profit increase of 11.9% and a net profit margin rise of 2.1 percentage points to 19% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about achieving new highs in performance as it approaches the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, with expectations for continued revenue and profit growth [4] - The company anticipates EPS of 0.51, 0.58, and 0.65 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 25X, 22X, and 19X [4]