扩大内需不是权宜之计，而是关系长远的战略之举。从密集排布的跨年活动看，北京着力点并不在于单 一消费项目，而在于通过系统性供给，构建可参与、可停留、可延展的服务消费场景。文化演出、公共 展览、延时开放的城市公共空间，共同构成了一组复合型供给，本质上是通过提升服务质量和体验密 度，回应人民对高品质生活的需求。 服务消费的一个重要特点在于，其潜力不仅取决于居民收入水平，还取决于供给体系是否丰富可及。新 需求的形成，往往是在高质量供给的持续释放中逐步培育出来的。节日经济的意义，正在于集中推出优 质内容和服务，为潜在需求提供清晰出口，这体现出供给与需求相互作用、相互塑造的关系。 从消费结构看，文化体验具有一定的延展效应：一次观演、一次夜访博物馆，既是当下的即时参与，也 可能成为未来生活方式的起点。当节日里的尝鲜体验，逐步演变成日常生活的常态选择，服务消费才可 能从阶段性释放，变为持续性增长。这一过程，正是构建完整内需体系的可行路径。 （来源：经济日报） 转自：经济日报 北京近日推出文商旅体展系列跨年活动，着力打造全城联动、全民参与的新年消费体验。这一城市实 践，为观察服务消费运行逻辑提供了一个现实样本。 从这个意义看， ...

Core Viewpoint - The food and beverage industry is gaining market attention as the New Year and Spring Festival consumption peak approaches, with the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs launching initiatives to boost agricultural product consumption during this period [1][3] Group 1: Consumption Promotion Activities - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has initiated the "Special Products for the New Year" consumption promotion activities, focusing on practical measures to enhance consumption during the festive season [1][3] - The promotion activities will cover five key areas: releasing a directory of local specialty products, organizing holiday-themed consumption events, enhancing agricultural and cultural tourism integration, launching nutrition and health consumption activities, and conducting consumer assistance matching activities [3] Group 2: Market Trends and Retail Strategies - According to Nielsen IQ's report, the Spring Festival consumption market is transitioning from a "transaction space" to a "lifestyle space," indicating a shift in consumer behavior [3] - Retailers are advised to prepare inventory two weeks before the New Year, with a strong growth trend anticipated in the pre-made festive meal market during the Spring Festival [3] - The Ministry of Commerce emphasizes the importance of the retail sector in fostering a complete domestic demand system and driving high-quality development during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading, control the rhythm and trading risks. The supply is in a relatively large state, and demand has some resilience [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, light - position oscillatory trading is also advised, paying attention to rhythm and risks. Supply has an incremental expectation, and demand is transitioning from peak to off - season with some support from end - of - year impulses [2]. - For cast aluminum alloys, light - position oscillatory trading is suggested. Supply is restricted, and demand is in a slight decline with inventory accumulation [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 21,935 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 130 yuan, down 40 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 185,806 lots, down 9,920 lots [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,477 yuan/ton, down 69 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 51 yuan, down 14 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 278,854 lots, down 3,226 lots [2]. - LME aluminum's three - month quotation is 2,845.5 dollars/ton, down 41 dollars; LME aluminum inventory is 523,300 tons, down 2,500 tons [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan; the main - to - second - consecutive contract spread is - 75 yuan, down 15 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 17,403 lots, up 84 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network A00 aluminum is 21,770 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the price of alumina spot in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots is 21,500 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum is 21,860 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 570 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is - 165 yuan/ton, down 270 yuan [2]. - The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount is - 90 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount is - 32.36 dollars/ton, down 0.22 dollars [2]. - The basis of alumina is 263 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production is 786.5 million tons, down 13.40 million tons; the national alumina start - up rate is 84.37%, down 0.92%; the utilization rate of alumina production capacity is 86.51%, down 0.45% [2]. - The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 730.23 million tons, up 25.92 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 37.98 million tons, down 8.87 million tons [2]. - The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 17,100 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the average price in Shandong metal scrap is 16,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 158,360.01 tons, up 2,945.61 tons; the export volume is 32.46 tons, down 36.08 tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina is 18 million tons, down 7 million tons; the import volume is 18.93 million tons, up 12.93 million tons [2]. - The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is - 19.21 million tons, down 8.67 million tons; the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum is 54.60 million tons, up 0.40 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum is 248,261.37 tons, up 4,462 tons; the export volume is 24,573.56 tons, down 4,396.36 tons [2]. - The total production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is 4,524.20 million tons, up 1 million tons; the start - up rate is 98.21%, down 0.03% [2]. - The production of aluminum products is 569.40 million tons, down 20.60 million tons; the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products is 57 million tons, up 7 million tons [2]. - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 60.83 million tons, down 4.82 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 3.09 million tons, up 0.74 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The built - up production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 126 million tons, unchanged; the National Real Estate Prosperity Index is 92.43, down 0.34 [2]. - The production of aluminum alloy is 168.20 million tons, unchanged; the automobile production is 327.90 million vehicles, up 5.25 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 13.61%, down 0.21%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 11.72%, up 0.10% [2]. - The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 10.06%, down 0.0347%; the call - to - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.60, down 0.0950 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - During the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, the retail industry should focus on high - quality development [2]. - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the third time, with market expectations of a 25 - basis - point cut [2]. - China's economy is expected to maintain a stable and positive trend, and the economic aggregate will reach a new level [2]. - In November, the CPI decreased 0.1% month - on - month and increased 0.7% year - on - year; the PPI increased 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 2.2% year - on - year [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that investment plays a crucial role in driving economic growth, particularly during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, where effective investment is expected to stimulate steady growth momentum [1][3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need to accelerate the cultivation of a complete domestic demand system, optimize investment structure, and maintain reasonable investment growth. Over the past four years, the average contribution rate of capital formation to China's economic growth has been 30.2% [3] - High-tech industry investment has consistently outpaced overall investment growth for several years, indicating a shift towards more advanced sectors [3] Group 2 - The plan promotes new infrastructure, new urbanization, and major projects in transportation and water conservancy that not only stimulate consumption but also enhance structural adjustments. By the end of the year, 102 major projects are expected to meet their planning goals [5] - Approximately 90% of county-level administrative centers have achieved access to highways within 30 minutes, and the high-speed rail coverage in cities with populations over 500,000 has reached 97% [5] - Investment in social and livelihood sectors has maintained rapid growth, with around 7.8 million units of affordable housing initiated over the past four years, effectively addressing housing issues for over 20 million people [5] Group 3 - Investment is leveraged to stimulate the overall economy, with policies aimed at enhancing domestic demand and attracting private capital into significant projects in nuclear power and railways [7] - The focus of investment has shifted towards improving quality of life, reflecting a broader strategy to direct resources towards beneficial outcomes for society [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the achievements and progress of China's economy during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, highlighting significant economic growth and the successful implementation of various strategic initiatives [1][5]. Economic Growth and Achievements - China's GDP has consistently crossed significant milestones, reaching approximately 140 trillion yuan in 2023, with an increase of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta region [1]. - The average economic growth rate over the past four years was 5.5%, which is notable for such a large economy [1][5]. - Key indicators such as urbanization rate and life expectancy have exceeded expectations, with life expectancy rising from 77.3 years in 2020 to 79 years in 2023 [5]. Major Indicators and Goals - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 20 key economic and social development indicators, including GDP growth, labor productivity, urbanization rate, and R&D expenditure growth [3][4]. - Some indicators are expected to be achieved, while others are binding, such as increasing the average education years of the labor force from 10.8 years in 2020 to 11.3 years by 2025 [4]. Infrastructure and Major Projects - A total of 102 major projects have been initiated, focusing on transportation, technology, and public welfare, with significant progress reported in areas like high-speed rail and healthcare [5][7]. - Notable projects include the Guizhou-Nanning high-speed railway and the Chengdu Tianfu Airport, which are expected to enhance connectivity and economic development [5]. Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand has been a major driver of economic growth, contributing 86.4% to the overall growth, with consumption accounting for 56.2% [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of a robust domestic market, with increasing consumer interest in technology and services [8]. Innovation and R&D - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has seen a significant increase in R&D investment, with the proportion of R&D expenditure to GDP expected to reach 2.68% by 2024 [9]. - The number of innovative drugs in development has reached over 4,000, representing about 30% of the global total [10]. Reforms and Market Dynamics - The article highlights ongoing reforms, including the reduction of market access restrictions and the establishment of a unified electricity market, which has seen market transactions account for 63% of total electricity consumption by 2024 [11]. - The focus on market-oriented reforms aims to enhance competitiveness and streamline regulations [12].

Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" (2021-2025) is nearing completion, with significant achievements in China's economic and social development over the past five years [1][2] - China's GDP is projected to reach approximately 140 trillion yuan this year, with an increase of over 35 trillion yuan, equivalent to recreating the Yangtze River Delta region [1][3] - The average economic growth rate over the past four years has been 5.5%, which is unprecedented for an economy of China's size [1][3] Economic Indicators - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 20 key economic and social development indicators, including GDP growth, labor productivity, urbanization rate, and R&D expenditure growth [2][3] - Specific targets include increasing the average education years of the labor force from 10.8 years in 2020 to 11.3 years by 2025 [3] - The digital economy's core industry value added is expected to reach 10.4% of GDP by 2024, surpassing the 10% target set for 2025 [3] Major Projects and Achievements - A total of 102 major projects have been initiated under the "14th Five-Year Plan," covering areas such as technology, transportation, and energy [4][5] - Significant infrastructure projects include high-speed railways and major airports, with notable achievements in scientific research and technology [5] - The plan has also led to the construction of approximately 780,000 affordable housing units, addressing housing issues for over 20 million people [6] Domestic Demand and Consumption - Domestic demand has been a major driver of economic growth, contributing 86.4% to the average growth rate, with consumption accounting for 56.2% [6] - The past four years have seen a continuous expansion in market consumption, particularly in technology-driven products and services [6] Innovation and R&D - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has emphasized technological innovation, with R&D expenditure expected to reach 2.68% of GDP by 2024, nearing OECD levels [7][8] - The number of innovative drugs in development has reached over 4,000, representing about 30% of the global total [8] Market Reforms - The government has reduced the market access negative list from 151 to 106 items, promoting fair competition and optimizing industrial layout [9] - Significant reforms in the energy sector have led to a market-oriented electricity trading system, with market transactions accounting for 63% of total electricity consumption by 2024 [9][10]