期货研究报告：日度报告——综合晨报 美国有意停火一个月以与伊朗讨论 15 点协议 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-03-25 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美国有意停火一个月以与伊朗讨论 15 点协议 美国有意停火一个月来与伊朗谈判，美伊战争结束可能性明显 上升，市场风险偏震荡，美元指数走弱。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股缩量反弹，市场情绪回升 综 市场押注美方传递的谈判取得进展之词，风险资产低位反弹。 若后续美伊能通过谈判手段逐渐恢复霍尔木兹海峡的通航，则 滞涨交易或将反转，权益机会到来。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 有色金属（铜） Atalaya 一季度铜产量略低于计划 宏观预期短期反复多变，一定程度加剧短期铜价波动，基本面 则短期呈现内外分化，预计盘面继续宽幅震荡为主，策略上短 线观望。 能源化工（液化石油气） 中国 lpg 现货市场价格 今日市场回归理性整理，部分地区稳定为主低位补涨 晨 央行开展了 175 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 市场开始进行 TACO 交易，各类资产普遍上涨，长债也表现偏 强，曲线走平。密切关注战争形势，多看少动。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 南非对涉华扁轧 ...

该官员表示，伊朗与美国之间的会谈预计将于本周晚些时候在巴基斯坦举行。报道称，美国总统特朗普表示，美国已与伊朗就结束战争的方 案进行了两天的会谈，并撤销了此前要求打击发电厂的48小时最后通牒。 伊朗方面则否认进行任何谈判。 据中国新闻网援引 以色列Ynet新闻网站当地时间23日报道，一名以色列官员表示， 美国方面已将4月9日设定为结束对伊朗战争的目标日 期。 ...

农产品早报 2026-03-24 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 （1）据海关数据显示，2026 年 1 月-2 月，我国分别进口食糖 28 万吨、24 万吨，较去年同期均增加 22 万吨，合计增加 44 万吨。（2）2 月全国累计产糖 926 万吨，同比减少 45.5 万吨，单月销糖 75 万吨， 同比减少 26.6 万吨，工业库存 581 万吨，同比增 84 万吨。（3）据印度糖业协会（ISMA）数据显示， 2025/26 榨季截至 3 月 15 日，印度累计产糖 2621 万吨，同比增加 249 万吨。（4）据泰国糖业协会（OCSB） 发布数据显示，2025/26 榨季截至 2026 年 3 月 15 日，泰国食糖产量已达 1027 万吨，同比增加 54.5 万吨。 （5）据国际糖业组织（ISO）2 月底预测，因印度和泰国产糖量低于预期，预计 2025/26 榨季全球食糖 ...

However, Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf posted on social media that no talks had been held with the U.S., contradicting Trump's announcement that there were talks between the United States and Iran in the past day in which the two sides ‌had "major points of agreement" ⁠and ⁠that a deal could be done soon to settle the war.The While U.S. equities fell last week, they staged a sharp recovery on Monday after Trump's comments sent oil prices lower. Equities had been trading lower earlier ...

Group 1 - The article reports that President Trump has rejected proposals from Middle Eastern countries to initiate ceasefire negotiations with Iran, indicating a focus on continuing military operations to weaken Iran's military capabilities [1][2] - There are differing opinions among U.S. officials and Trump's advisors regarding the ongoing conflict; some advocate for a quick resolution to avoid rising oil prices impacting the Republican Party in the midterm elections, while others support maintaining offensive actions to destroy Iran's missile program and prevent nuclear armament [2] - The article highlights that a significant military operation against Iran was launched on February 28, resulting in the deaths of key Iranian leaders, which has led to retaliatory actions from Iran against U.S. and Israeli targets in the region [2] Group 2 - Trump's recent statements reflect a fluctuating foreign policy stance; he initially expressed willingness to engage in dialogue with Iran but later declared that negotiations were "too late" and that he would not accept any agreements from Iran [2] - The article notes that Trump's tendency to change his foreign policy approach suddenly leaves open the possibility of future diplomatic negotiations with Iran [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the market saw the futures hit the daily limit and then fluctuate after opening, with a general trading atmosphere and wide - ranging fluctuations in spot basis. Given the ongoing war between the US and Iran, the wavering attitude of Trump, and the sharp rise in oil prices, PTA spot prices are expected to fluctuate widely following the cost side in the short term. Attention should be paid to subsequent cost - side and device changes [5]. - For MEG, the price center rose and then fell on Thursday, with a significant weakening of the basis. Under the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the reduction of domestic oil - based devices will gradually be reflected. The short - term trend of MEG follows the macro - face and cost side, and attention should be paid to overseas situations and ship passage [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - No information provided in the report 2.每日提示 - **PTA**: The spot price range was 6900 - 7150 yuan, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 - 22. The PTA factory inventory was 5.94 days, a decrease of 0.42 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short with an increase in short positions [5][6]. - **MEG**: The spot price reached as high as 4880 yuan/ton in the morning and closed at a discount of 90 - 95 yuan/ton to the 05 contract in the afternoon. The inventory in East China was 97.5 tons, an increase of 3.2 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short with a decrease in short positions [7][8]. 3.今日关注 - **Influencing factors**: The 300 - million - ton Yihua plant was shut down for maintenance, which was a positive factor. Yisheng New Materials increased production to full capacity at 3.6 million tons, Dushan restarted at 2.5 million tons, Ineos restarted at 1.25 million tons, and Fuhai Chuang increased production, which were negative factors [9][10]. - **PX supply - demand balance table**: From September 2025 to June 2026, PX production, import volume, and demand showed different trends, and the balance with polyester also changed. For example, in September 2025, the balance was - 2.5 tons, while in June 2026, it was 30.6 tons [11]. - **PTA supply - demand balance table**: From October 2025 to September 2026, PTA production, consumption, and surplus/deficit showed different trends. For example, in October 2025, the surplus was 10.4 tons, while in April 2026, there was a deficit of 35 tons [12]. - **MEG supply - demand balance table**: From October 2025 to September 2026, MEG production, import, consumption, and surplus/deficit showed different trends. For example, in October 2025, the surplus was 11.7 tons, while in April 2026, there was a deficit of 11.8 tons [13]. - **Price**: On March 12, 2026, compared with March 11, 2026, the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed. For example, the CCFEI price index of PTA increased from 6580 yuan/ton to 7025 yuan/ton [14]. 4.基本面数据 - **Inventory analysis**: PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory in East China, PET slice factory inventory, and polyester fiber inventory showed different trends over time [42][44][46]. - **Upstream and downstream开工率**: The operating rates of PTA, PX, MEG, polyester, and textile enterprises in the polyester industry chain showed different trends over time [53][55][57]. - **Profit**: The processing fees of PTA, the production profits of MEG from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester fibers showed different trends over time [58][61][63]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses President Trump's claims regarding the U.S. military's actions against Iran, asserting that the U.S. has "won" the war and has significantly damaged Iran's military capabilities [4][5]. Group 1 - Trump stated that the U.S. military has sunk 28 Iranian minesweepers in the Strait of Hormuz [3]. - He claimed that within hours, the U.S. had destroyed Iran's navy and air force, asserting that "everything ended in the first hour" [5]. - U.S. intelligence reports indicate that the Iranian leadership remains intact and is not at risk of collapse in the short term, despite ongoing bombings by the U.S. and Israel [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment is significantly influenced by the US - Iran conflict, with potential risk preference recovery as the conflict intensity may decline. Attention should be paid to investment opportunities in IM/IC, while being cautious about chasing highs and selling lows [15][16]. - In the bond market, due to sensitivity to inflation and technical trends, short - and medium - term bonds are judged to be bearish [17]. - For various commodities, the supply - demand relationship, cost factors, and geopolitical events all have an impact on their prices and trends, and corresponding trading strategies are recommended for different commodities. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Information - US President Trump indicates that the war with Iran may end soon, and the G7 decides not to release strategic oil reserves for the time being [11]. - In February, CPI and PPI show different trends. CPI rises both month - on - month and year - on - year, while PPI rises month - on - month but declines year - on - year with a narrowing decline [11]. - OpenClaw AI agents are popular globally, and Tencent launches its AI agent WorkBuddy [11]. - Domestic refined oil prices are raised, and many small and medium - sized banks lower deposit interest rates [12]. - Russia and the US have a phone call to discuss the Middle East situation and the Ukraine issue [12]. - The energy price surge reshapes European interest rate trading, with changes in market expectations for central bank interest rate hikes [12]. - The White House is discussing sending troops to seize Iran's Kharg Island, and Saudi Aramco sells crude oil in the spot market through tender [13]. - Qatar Energy delays the commissioning of the North Field East expansion project due to the shutdown of a factory caused by an Iranian drone attack [13]. 2. Stock Index Futures - The short - term performance of IM/IC may be better than that of weighted stocks. As the US - Iran war intensity may decline, risk preference may recover, and attention should be paid to the repair opportunities of IM/IC [15][16]. 3. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market is sensitive to inflation, and short - and medium - term bonds are judged to be bearish. The market is affected by inflation data, G7's decision on oil reserves, and the situation of the US - Iran war [17]. 4. Black Commodities 4.1. Steel and Iron Ore - The short - term rebound of black commodities is limited. The supply of steel mills is increasing slightly, and the demand for building materials is weak, while the demand for coils is acceptable. It is recommended to take profits on short - term long positions and hold short - straddle strategies [19][20]. 4.2. Coking Coal and Coke - The prices of coking coal and coke may fluctuate strongly in the short term and are expected to continue wide - range oscillations in the medium term. The market is affected by the US - Iran situation and downstream demand [21]. 4.3. Ferroalloys - For manganese silicon, short - term short - selling on rallies is recommended; for ferrosilicon, short - selling is recommended for intraday operations, while being wary of unexpected price increases [22]. 4.4. Soda Ash and Glass - It is recommended to wait and see. Soda ash supply is high, and attention should be paid to new production capacity and enterprise maintenance plans. Glass supply has cold - repair and ignition expectations, and attention should be paid to demand recovery [23]. 5. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials 5.1. Copper - Copper prices may oscillate in the short term. High energy prices and concerns about economic stagflation put pressure on copper prices, but the substitution effect of refined copper rods may support prices [25]. 5.2. Zinc - Zinc prices are expected to be weak. Domestic zinc inventories are increasing, and the operating idea is to be bearish on oscillations and operate short positions cyclically [26][27]. 5.3. Lead - After taking profits on previous short positions, short positions can be arranged when the price rises. Lead inventories are increasing, and the delivery volume is expected to be large [28][29]. 5.4. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices may oscillate widely in the short term. Supply is increasing, and the short - term supply - demand situation is weakening, but long - term supply - demand is favorable [30]. 5.5. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon oscillates, and attention should be paid to short - straddle option opportunities. Polysilicon oscillates weakly, and it is recommended to wait and see [31]. 6. Agricultural Products 6.1. Cotton - Cotton prices are high and oscillating. Attention should be paid to the actual demand in the "Golden March and Silver April" and the impact of external conflicts. The global cotton supply may decline in the future [36][37]. 6.2. Sugar - Sugar prices face pressure to rebound. There are differences in the global sugar supply situation, and domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure. The operation idea is to oscillate at high levels [38][39][40]. 6.3. Eggs - Egg prices may be strong in the short term, but the supply pressure is large. The futures contract may enter an oscillating pattern, and attention should be paid to inventory and elimination [41][42]. 6.4. Apples - High - quality apple prices may be strong, and the market is expected to be strong overall, showing a structural differentiation pattern [43]. 6.5. Corn - Be cautious about chasing high prices, and consider a 5 - 7 reverse spread strategy. Pay attention to supply pressure and low inventory support [44]. 6.6. Red Dates - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly. The market has a high - inventory pattern, and the demand in the off - season needs to be observed [45]. 6.7. Pigs - Spot pig prices are under pressure, and the futures market is expected to oscillate at a low level. The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [46]. 7. Energy and Chemicals 7.1. Crude Oil - The geopolitical premium of crude oil has significantly declined, but the US - Iran conflict has not ended. Attention should be paid to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [48][49]. 7.2. Fuel Oil - Fuel oil prices will follow oil prices and enter high - level fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [50]. 7.3. Plastics - Polyolefin prices may be supported by geopolitical factors, but they may decline if the war eases. Be cautious about rebound risks and take a bullish view [51]. 7.4. Rubber - Be cautious in unilateral trading. Consider narrowing the spread between RU - NR and RU - BR, and pay attention to selling put options at low prices [52]. 7.5. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber prices are driven by costs, but be cautious about chasing high prices. Consider taking partial profits on the strategy of going long synthetic rubber and short natural rubber [53]. 7.6. Methanol - The supply and demand of methanol have slightly improved. Pay attention to the impact of the Middle East situation on Iranian methanol supply and the operation of downstream MTO plants [53][54]. 7.7. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda prices may oscillate widely. Overseas production decline increases potential export demand, but real - world transactions are not as active as in the futures market [55][56]. 7.8. Asphalt - Asphalt demand is in the off - season, and prices follow oil prices. Attention should be paid to the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz [57]. 7.9. PVC - PVC may oscillate strongly in the short term. Rising oil prices increase ethylene - based PVC costs, and the reduction of ethylene production may continue [58]. 7.10. Polyester Industry Chain - The short - term trend of the polyester chain is dominated by oil prices and market sentiment. Pay attention to device maintenance and demand recovery [59]. 7.11. Pulp - Pulp prices are affected by macro - sentiment and supply - demand factors. High inventory is a pressure, but there is support from overseas price increases. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [59]. 7.12. Logs - Log prices may oscillate upward. Demand is recovering, and inventory data is good. Pay attention to the impact of the US - Iran conflict and new delivery rules [61]. 7.13. Urea - Urea futures should be traded with a wide - range oscillation idea. The market is affected by industrial policies and the trend of energy and chemical futures [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The stock index is expected to decline, while bond prices are expected to rise. Stock index futures may stabilize due to domestic positive policies, with a suggestion to hold light long positions. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, light long positions are also recommended [116][118] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - The Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 indices have fallen from high levels [9] - The CSI 500 index has also fallen from high levels, while treasury bond futures have continued to rebound [14] 2. Market Momentum Analysis - The trading volumes of the Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 have declined [19] - The trading volumes of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 have decreased [22] - The margin trading balance exceeds 2.5 trillion yuan [26] - The turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have significantly dropped [30] - The sectors of the CSI 300 are relatively consistent [37] - The ALPHA values of the energy, materials, industrial, and telecommunications sectors of the CSI 300 are positive, while those of the optional, consumer, pharmaceutical, financial, and information sectors are negative [40] - In February, the number of listed companies increased by a net of 5 [45] 3. Fundamental Major Events - The implied repo rate (IRR) of the next - quarter 10 - year treasury bond futures has significantly declined, while that of the 5 - year treasury bond futures is stable [78][80] - The weighted inter - bank repo rate has slightly declined [86] - The short - term Shibor has slightly dropped [91] - In January, the CPI was 0.2%, showing a slight rebound, and the PPI growth rate reached - 1.4% [95] - In February, the PMI dropped to 49, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, indicating weak economic recovery [99] - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 0.9%, showing a decline in consumption data [104] - Consumer confidence is on an upward trend [108] - In January, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 9%, and credit accelerated. M1 was 4.9%. The newly added RMB loans in January were 4.71 trillion yuan [111][112] 4. Outlook for the Future - The trading volume of the stock market is shrinking, with less than 2.2 trillion yuan. Due to the intensification of the US - Iran war, global capital markets have declined significantly. However, with the continuous introduction of positive policies during the Two Sessions in China, the stock market is expected to stabilize. It is recommended to hold light long positions in stock index futures. For treasury bond futures, with sufficient liquidity and low domestic market interest rates, and considering external turmoil, it is also recommended to hold light long positions [118]

Group 1 - The Iranian armed forces reported that the US aircraft carrier "Abraham Lincoln" was struck by an Iranian drone in the Oman Sea, prompting the carrier and its escort to retreat over 1,000 kilometers from the area [1] - Satellite images indicated that a US-made THAAD missile defense system radar at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan was likely destroyed during the initial strikes against Iran, with the radar system valued at nearly $500 million [1] - There are reports of potential attacks on similar radar systems in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, while bases in Bahrain, Qatar, and Kuwait also experienced assaults on radar facilities and satellite communication systems [1] Group 2 - A meeting of Iran's interim leadership committee, chaired by President Pezeshkian, resulted in a decision to strengthen armed forces in response to the ongoing conflict, with preparations for future leadership elections [2] - Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian stated that Iran is prepared for a ground invasion by US forces and rejected any negotiations with the US, asserting that Iran has not requested a ceasefire [2] - The selection of the new Supreme Leader of Iran is emphasized as a matter solely for the Iranian people, with no external interference permitted [3]