化工周报 | 2025-09-28 节前补库需求边际改善，关注持续性 核心观点 策略 单边：PX/PTA/PF/PR短期中性，节前下游补库下需求边际好转，关注持续性，中期偏空。PX方面，近期中国PX 负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行，同时国内部分PX装置四季度检修推迟至明年，以及个别装置四季度扩能，PX四季 市场分析 成本端，本周油价反弹，乌克兰对连续对俄罗斯境内发动袭击，受损目标涵盖能源生产、运输及军工制造等关键 领域。欧盟将新增制裁118艘属于"影子油轮船队"的船只。特朗普也威胁对俄加征关税。后续继续关注地缘局势发 展以及国庆期间的OPEC会议。 PX方面，本周中国 PX 开工率86.7%（环比上周+0.5%），亚洲 PX 开工率78%（环比上周-0.3%）。本周国内PX装 置负荷小幅提升，主要来自天津石化检修完毕重启，恒力石化本周末一条重整计划检修，但PX基本无影响。近期 中国PX负荷陆续恢复至偏高负荷运行；后续海外几套装置也有重启计划，开工整体走高，PX四季度检修计划推迟 以及个别装置四季度扩能下PXN依然承压。同时下游PTA工厂在效益大幅压缩后，新装置投产推迟和PTA工厂减产 保价下检修计划增多，一定程度 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - On Thursday, the price of ethylene glycol was weakly consolidated, and the market negotiation was average. The weak commodity atmosphere and the planned production cut by large polyester bottle chip manufacturers suppressed market sentiment [1]. - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1]. - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]. - On the supply side, domestic ethylene glycol production has returned to a high level and is expected to remain stable in the short term. Overseas, the Malaysian plant has restarted, and imports are expected to increase after August. On the demand side, there are signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September. The balance sheet from August to September shows a loose balance with little supply-demand contradiction [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Yesterday, the closing price of the main EG contract was 4,465 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton or 0.36% from the previous trading day. The spot price of EG in the East China market was 4,525 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.55%. The spot basis of EG in East China (based on the 2509 contract) was 66 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene-based EG was -$48/ton, down $2/ton month-on-month, and the production profit of coal-based syngas EG was -18 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton month-on-month [1] International Price Difference - No specific data provided Downstream Production, Sales, and Operating Rate - Current demand shows signs of recovery, with increased foreign trade shipments and the gradual start of domestic sales stocking. Polyester production is expected to remain stable with a slight increase, reaching a peak in late September [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 500,000 tons, down 47,000 tons month-on-month; according to Longzhong data, it was 413,000 tons, down 85,000 tons month-on-month. As of August 28, the total inventory of MEG at the main ports in East China was 413,200 tons, down 26,300 tons from Monday and 84,600 tons from last Thursday [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Pure Benzene: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PX: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Methanol: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆, implying a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Caustic Soda: ☆☆☆, showing a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - PVC: ☆☆☆, meaning a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The olefin - polyolefin market has mixed trends. Propylene has inventory and supply - side support, while polyolefin has limited upward drivers [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market shows different situations. Pure benzene has a slight recovery, and styrene has limited upward drivers due to cost and supply - demand contradictions [3] - The polyester industry has a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. Different products have different supply - demand and cost situations, and attention should be paid to oil price trends and demand recovery [4] - The coal - chemical industry has different trends in different regions for methanol, and urea is in the off - season with limited demand promotion [5] - The chlor - alkali industry has PVC with supply pressure and a weakening trend, and caustic soda with short - term supply reduction but long - term pressure [6] - The soda - glass industry has soda with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure, and glass with cost support and attention to low - buying opportunities [7] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures opened higher and fluctuated widely. Enterprises' low inventory and shutdown benefits boosted prices. Downstream demand was mainly rigid [2] - Polyolefin futures fluctuated narrowly. Polyethylene supply changed little, and demand increased slightly. Polypropylene supply increased slightly due to new capacity, and demand was weak [2] 3.2 Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures prices recovered with the increase of domestic production, decrease of imports, and port de - stocking. It was suggested to conduct monthly spread band operations [3] - Styrene futures closed up, but cost support was weak, and supply - demand contradictions still existed, with limited upward drivers [3] 3.3 Polyester - The polyester industry chain moved up slightly. PTA supply - demand was weak, PX had a positive outlook in the third quarter, and attention should be paid to oil price and demand [4] - Ethylene glycol prices rebounded slightly, with increasing industry start - up and expected demand recovery. Medium - term attention was on demand [4] - Short fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was suggested to be long - allocated in the medium - term. Bottle chip orders improved, but capacity over - supply was a long - term pressure [4] 3.4 Coal - chemical - Methanol fluctuated narrowly. Coal price increase compressed profits in the northwest, and there were differences between inland and port supply - demand situations. Attention was on downstream demand [5] - Urea was in the agricultural off - season, with increasing compound fertilizer start - up but limited demand promotion. It was expected to fluctuate in a range [5] 3.5 Chlor - alkali - PVC had supply pressure and was expected to have a weakening trend. Caustic soda had short - term supply reduction but long - term supply pressure [6] 3.6 Soda - Glass - Soda was affected by environmental news, with emotional - driven short - term fluctuations and long - term supply pressure [7] - Glass had cost support, and it was suggested to consider low - buying near the cost [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacities of pure benzene and styrene plants in operation for over 20 years account for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ futures still maintain a certain premium. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand for BZ downstream is acceptable. Attention should be paid to whether the styrene and CPL operations can remain strong. In terms of supply, there is still pressure on South Korea's exports to China, and domestic production operations are still at a high level. The processing fee for pure benzene continues to show weak consolidation. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. In terms of supply, domestic EB operations are still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the operations of the three major hard plastics have rebounded, the inventory pressure of PS continues to ease, and ABS still has inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 246 yuan/ton (- 40), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 75 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The styrene main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 8 dollars/ton), pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and the pure benzene US - South Korea spread is 119.9 dollars/ton (+ 2.0 dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 44 yuan/ton (+ 13 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3.3 Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.10 million tons (+ 0.70 million tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+ 12,200 tons), and styrene East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+ 11,200 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products varies: caprolactam operating rate is 90.90% (- 0.83%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 3.00%), aniline operating rate is 73.66% (+ 0.77%), and adipic acid operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%). The styrene operating rate is 78.8% (+ 0.5%) [1] 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 216 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 55.21% (+ 2.02%), PS operating rate is 51.60% (+ 1.00%), and ABS operating rate is 66.82% (+ 0.92%), with downstream operations at a seasonal low [2] 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profits of pure benzene downstream products are as follows: caprolactam production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (+ 15), phenol - acetone production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (- 16), and adipic acid production profit is - 1482 yuan/ton (+ 9) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene; wait and see for styrene - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, do reverse arbitrage when the price is high; do reverse arbitrage for EB2509 - 2510 inter - period - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy, positive spread for the inter - period strategy, and no suggestion for the cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4475 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton, +0.34% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4573 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton, +0.11% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 224 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 74.3 tons (- 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (- 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.9 tons [1] - On the supply side, the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly recently, and several large devices such as Satellite have maintenance plans. On the demand side, the polyester load has increased at a high level in the near term, and the average monthly polyester load in May may rise instead of falling. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, US orders have resumed shipping. In the short term, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and the de - stocking range of ethylene glycol is enlarged under the support of high polyester load. There is still a possibility of liquidity tightening from June to July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4475 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton, +0.34% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4573 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton, +0.11% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 224 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data is provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load has increased at a high level in the near term, and the average monthly polyester load in May may rise instead of falling. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, and US orders have resumed shipping [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 74.3 tons (- 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (- 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.9 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polyester: Not rated - Chlor - alkali: Not rated - Glass and Soda Ash: Not rated Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows different trends in various products. Some are affected by supply - demand changes, events, and seasonal factors, with some products having potential price fluctuations and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port has limited theoretical impact on methanol exports, but the methanol futures price rose due to sentiment. Import arrivals are low, and coastal areas had significant inventory reduction last week. The utilization rate of inland plants is decreasing, and production enterprise inventories are low. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream procurement slows. Future supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season, with supply - demand turning to be more relaxed [2] Urea - The urea futures price rose, and spot trading improved slightly. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weakening, while supply remains high. Production enterprise inventories decreased significantly this week. Daily production is expected to further increase, and supply - demand contradictions may emerge after the peak agricultural procurement season [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures continued to move sideways. For polyethylene, demand is weakening, and the market has a bearish outlook due to policy changes. For polypropylene, supply pressure is not high, but demand is poor, and the weak buying sentiment drags down the price [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price declined. There is no positive cost - side driver, and with the planned resumption of some plants and weak downstream demand, supply - demand contradictions may increase as the May Day holiday approaches [6] Polyester - The polyester industry's supply - demand is improving, but there is a potential risk of production cuts due to poor profits. For PTA, supply is expected to decrease, and there is a chance to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand drive is limited, and short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are affected by raw materials and demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC futures are running at a low level. Enterprise inventories have decreased, but domestic demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. For caustic soda, the operating rate has increased, and inventories are still at a medium - high level. With poor downstream profits, the price may also run at a low level [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures are oscillating at a low level. Factory inventories increased slightly last week, and the industry profit fluctuates narrowly. The price may have limited downside and is expected to be supported at around 1100 yuan. Soda ash futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term due to low - price restocking and planned maintenance in May, but there may be short - selling opportunities in the long - term [9]