化工日报 | 2025-08-29 本周EG主港库存继续下降 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4465元/吨（较前一交易日变动-16元/吨，幅度-0.36%），EG华东市场现货价 4525元/吨（较前一交易日变动-25元/吨，幅度-0.55%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）66元/吨（环比+5元/吨）。 周四，乙二醇价格重心弱势整理，市场商谈一般。日内商品氛围偏弱，聚酯瓶片大厂将维持减产，市场心态有所 压制。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-48美元/吨（环比-2美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为-18元/吨（环比+1 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为50.0万吨（环比-4.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为41.3万吨（环比-8.5万吨）。截至8月28日，华东主港地区MEG港口库存总量41.32 万吨，较本周一降低2.63万吨；较上周四降低8.46万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，乙二醇负荷已回归高位，短期预计高位持稳；海外供应方面，马 来西亚装置重启，8月后进口预期回升。需求端，当 ...

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1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacities of pure benzene and styrene plants in operation for over 20 years account for 16% and 6%, respectively. The BZ futures still maintain a certain premium. There is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory during the same period. The short - term demand for BZ downstream is acceptable. Attention should be paid to whether the styrene and CPL operations can remain strong. In terms of supply, there is still pressure on South Korea's exports to China, and domestic production operations are still at a high level. The processing fee for pure benzene continues to show weak consolidation. For styrene, port inventory is rising rapidly. In terms of supply, domestic EB operations are still at a relatively high level. In terms of demand, the operations of the three major hard plastics have rebounded, the inventory pressure of PS continues to ease, and ABS still has inventory pressure [3] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - The pure benzene main contract basis is - 246 yuan/ton (- 40), and the East China pure benzene spot - M2 spread is - 75 yuan/ton (- 10 yuan/ton). The styrene main contract basis is 10 yuan/ton (- 43 yuan/ton) [1] 3.2 Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 177 dollars/ton (- 8 dollars/ton), pure benzene FOB South Korea processing fee is 163 dollars/ton (- 6 dollars/ton), and the pure benzene US - South Korea spread is 119.9 dollars/ton (+ 2.0 dollars/ton). The non - integrated production profit of styrene is - 44 yuan/ton (+ 13 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1] 3.3 Inventories and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 17.10 million tons (+ 0.70 million tons). Styrene East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+ 12,200 tons), and styrene East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+ 11,200 tons), in the inventory rebuilding stage. The operating rate of pure benzene downstream products varies: caprolactam operating rate is 90.90% (- 0.83%), phenol operating rate is 78.00% (- 3.00%), aniline operating rate is 73.66% (+ 0.77%), and adipic acid operating rate is 64.80% (+ 0.00%). The styrene operating rate is 78.8% (+ 0.5%) [1] 3.4 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Among styrene downstream hard plastics, EPS production profit is 175 yuan/ton (+ 0 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 126 yuan/ton (- 50 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is 216 yuan/ton (- 9 yuan/ton). EPS operating rate is 55.21% (+ 2.02%), PS operating rate is 51.60% (+ 1.00%), and ABS operating rate is 66.82% (+ 0.92%), with downstream operations at a seasonal low [2] 3.5 Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - The production profits of pure benzene downstream products are as follows: caprolactam production profit is - 1875 yuan/ton (+ 15), phenol - acetone production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (+ 0), aniline production profit is - 113 yuan/ton (- 16), and adipic acid production profit is - 1482 yuan/ton (+ 9) [1] 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see for pure benzene; wait and see for styrene - Basis and inter - period: For near - month BZ paper goods - distant BZ2603 futures, do reverse arbitrage when the price is high; do reverse arbitrage for EB2509 - 2510 inter - period - Cross - variety: Shrink the EB - BZ spread when it is high [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term cautious bullish on the unilateral strategy, positive spread for the inter - period strategy, and no suggestion for the cross - variety strategy [3] Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the closing price of the EG main contract was 4475 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton, +0.34% compared to the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 4573 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton, +0.11% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 224 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 74.3 tons (- 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (- 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.9 tons [1] - On the supply side, the number of warehouse receipts has increased significantly recently, and several large devices such as Satellite have maintenance plans. On the demand side, the polyester load has increased at a high level in the near term, and the average monthly polyester load in May may rise instead of falling. With the significant reduction of US tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, US orders have resumed shipping. In the short term, the arrival of foreign ships is scarce, and the de - stocking range of ethylene glycol is enlarged under the support of high polyester load. There is still a possibility of liquidity tightening from June to July [2] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4475 yuan/ton (+15 yuan/ton, +0.34% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4573 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton, +0.11% compared to the previous trading day). The EG East China spot basis (based on the 2509 contract) was 92 yuan/ton (+4 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The production profit of ethylene - made EG was - 22 US dollars/ton (- 1 US dollar/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - made syngas - made EG was 224 yuan/ton (- 3 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data is provided in the given text Downstream Production, Sales and Operating Rate - The polyester load has increased at a high level in the near term, and the average monthly polyester load in May may rise instead of falling. The US has significantly reduced tariffs on Chinese textiles and clothing, and US orders have resumed shipping [2] Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the East China main port was 74.3 tons (- 0.8 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 66.4 tons (- 2.8 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main port last week was 6.4 tons, and the planned arrival at the East China main port this week is 10.9 tons [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - Polyolefins: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polyester: Not rated - Chlor - alkali: Not rated - Glass and Soda Ash: Not rated Core Viewpoints - The chemical market shows different trends in various products. Some are affected by supply - demand changes, events, and seasonal factors, with some products having potential price fluctuations and investment opportunities [2][3][4] Summary by Product Methanol - The explosion at Iran's Abbas port has limited theoretical impact on methanol exports, but the methanol futures price rose due to sentiment. Import arrivals are low, and coastal areas had significant inventory reduction last week. The utilization rate of inland plants is decreasing, and production enterprise inventories are low. As the May Day holiday approaches, downstream procurement slows. Future supply is expected to increase, and demand will enter the off - season, with supply - demand turning to be more relaxed [2] Urea - The urea futures price rose, and spot trading improved slightly. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weakening, while supply remains high. Production enterprise inventories decreased significantly this week. Daily production is expected to further increase, and supply - demand contradictions may emerge after the peak agricultural procurement season [3] Polyolefins - Polyolefin futures continued to move sideways. For polyethylene, demand is weakening, and the market has a bearish outlook due to policy changes. For polypropylene, supply pressure is not high, but demand is poor, and the weak buying sentiment drags down the price [4] Styrene - The styrene futures price declined. There is no positive cost - side driver, and with the planned resumption of some plants and weak downstream demand, supply - demand contradictions may increase as the May Day holiday approaches [6] Polyester - The polyester industry's supply - demand is improving, but there is a potential risk of production cuts due to poor profits. For PTA, supply is expected to decrease, and there is a chance to go long on the PTA - crude oil spread. Ethylene glycol's supply - demand drive is limited, and short - fiber and bottle - chip prices are affected by raw materials and demand [7] Chlor - alkali - PVC futures are running at a low level. Enterprise inventories have decreased, but domestic demand is weak, and the price may fluctuate at a low level. For caustic soda, the operating rate has increased, and inventories are still at a medium - high level. With poor downstream profits, the price may also run at a low level [8] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass futures are oscillating at a low level. Factory inventories increased slightly last week, and the industry profit fluctuates narrowly. The price may have limited downside and is expected to be supported at around 1100 yuan. Soda ash futures are expected to be oscillating strongly in the short - term due to low - price restocking and planned maintenance in May, but there may be short - selling opportunities in the long - term [9]