Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is fast, with the technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, but its downside risk is generally controllable. The convertible bond market is trending optimistically. In the short term, the impetus for the convertible bond market comes from the liability side, with the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential increased demand from the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs. After a period of retracement and consolidation, a new round of market upswing is expected to start. [3][5] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Outlook - Policy support has strongly influenced the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have hit new phased highs. The equity market is highly volatile due to Sino - US tariff and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is optimistic, and its short - term momentum comes from the liability side, such as the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and potential demand from stock - bond constant ETFs. [3][5] 2. Convertible Bond Valuation - During the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk appetite was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - rated large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. The overall market's 100 - yuan premium rate was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and its percentile since 2017 was 93.9%. High - rated convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - rated ones. - The conversion premium rate and the bottom - line premium rate increased across most parity ranges. The low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range showed relatively strong valuation performance, while the high - parity range above 140 yuan saw a slight decline. - The median price of convertible bonds was 131.80 yuan, up 2.07 yuan from the previous week, and the yield to maturity was - 6.47%, down 0.01%. Their percentile levels since 2017 were 99.20 and 0.60 respectively. [4][6][10] 3. Clause Statistics 3.1 Redemption - This week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun, Youfa, and Zhonghuan Zhuan 2 Convertible Bonds announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There are currently 18 convertible bonds that have announced forced or maturity redemptions but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 4.9 billion yuan. There are 34 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, and 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week. [4][13][16] 3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of now, 107 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 23 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 have triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price is still below the trigger price and no announcement has been made, 32 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 has issued a board - meeting proposal for downward revision but has not yet held a shareholders' meeting. [4][18] 3.3 Put Option - This week, Baocai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 2 convertible bonds have issued put - option announcements, and 5 are accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 is accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision period. [4][22] 4. Primary Market Issuance - There were no new convertible bond issuances this week. Jin 25, Funeng, and Jinlang Zhuan 02 Convertible Bonds have been issued but not yet listed. Jin 25 Convertible Bond is scheduled to list on October 27, 2025. As of now, there are 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 awaiting listing - committee approval, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan. [4][26] 5. Appendix - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.47% this week. The technology and advanced manufacturing sectors showed significant recovery. Most industries saw gains, with the national defense and military industry, electronics, and computer sectors leading the way. [28][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Policy support has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index have reached new phased highs, but the style rotation is rapid, with technology and dividend sectors taking turns. Amid the intertwining of Sino - US tariff issues and domestic policy expectations, the equity market is highly volatile, yet its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is expected to be optimistic, and in the short - term, its initiative comes from the liability side. With the return of net inflows into convertible bond ETFs and the potential launch of stock - bond constant ETFs, the convertible bond market may start a new round of rally after a retracement [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Policy has significantly boosted the equity and convertible bond markets. The Shanghai Composite Index and the Wind Micro - cap Stock Index hit new phased highs, with a fast - paced style rotation between technology and dividend sectors. The equity market is volatile due to Sino - US tariffs and domestic policy expectations, but its downside risk is controllable. The convertible bond market is likely to be positive, and in the short - term, the liability side is driving it. Net inflows into convertible bond ETFs have resumed, and the upcoming stock - bond constant ETFs may increase demand for convertible bonds. Attention should be paid to the start of a new round of market after a retracement [3][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - During the week of the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, risk preference was resilient, and the 100 - yuan valuation rose to around 36%. High - grade large - cap convertible bonds showed stronger valuation performance. As of the latest data, the 100 - yuan premium rate of the whole - market convertible bonds was 35.7%, up 0.6% from the previous week, and the latest quantile was at the 93.9% percentile since 2017. High - grade convertible bonds had a larger increase in valuation than low - grade ones. Compared with last week, the conversion premium rate and the bottom - support premium rate in each parity range mainly increased. The valuation performance was relatively strong in the low - parity range below 80 yuan and the 110 - 120 yuan parity range, while it slightly declined in the high - parity range above 140 yuan. The median price and the yield to maturity of convertible bonds were reported at 131.80 yuan and - 6.47% respectively, up 2.07 yuan and down 0.01% from the previous week, and their quantile levels were at the 99.20 and 0.60 percentiles since 2017 [5][7][12]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - During the week, Tongcheng Convertible Bond announced redemption, while Fuchun Convertible Bond, Youfa Convertible Bond, and Zhonghuan Convertible Bond 2 announced non - redemption, with a forced - redemption rate of 25%. There were 18 convertible bonds that had issued forced - redemption or maturity - redemption announcements but had not yet delisted. The potential conversion or maturity balance of the forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones was 4.9 billion yuan. Currently, there were 34 convertible bonds in the redemption process, and 12 were expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, which should be closely monitored [5][15][18]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - During the week, Lanfan Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision. As of the latest data, 107 convertible bonds were in the non - downward - revision period, 23 could not be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 2 had triggered the condition and the stock price was still below the downward - revision trigger price but no announcement had been made, 32 were accumulating days for downward revision, and 1 had issued a board - meeting plan for downward revision but had not yet held a general meeting of shareholders [20]. 3.3.3 Put Option - During the week, Baolai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of the latest data, 2 convertible bonds had issued put - option announcements, and 5 were accumulating days to trigger the put - option. Among them, 1 proposed a downward revision, 1 had triggered the downward - revision condition, 1 was accumulating days for downward revision, and 2 were in the non - downward - revision period [24]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - There was no new issuance of convertible bonds during the week. Jin 25 Convertible Bond, Funeng Convertible Bond, and Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 had been issued but not yet listed. According to the latest announcement, Jin 25 Convertible Bond will be listed next week (October 27, 2025). As of the latest data, there were 7 convertible bonds awaiting registration approval, with a total issuance scale of 6.7 billion yuan, and 6 convertible bonds that had passed the listing committee review, with a total issuance scale of 3.6 billion yuan [27].

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: September 23, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. Considering the resumption of steel mills' production and restocking demand before the National Day holiday, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the near term [10][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Market Review - On September 22, the main 2601 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated strongly, opening higher, then oscillating lower, and finally closing at 808.5 yuan/ton, up 0.37% [7] - The prices of major iron ore varieties in the spot market remained flat compared with the previous trading day [8] 3.2 Technical Analysis - The KDJ indicator of the daily line of the iron ore 2601 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning down, and the D value continuing to decline. The red column of the MACD indicator of the daily line has been expanding for two consecutive trading days [9] 3.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, and two more cuts are expected this year, but Powell's post - meeting statement was hawkish. The domestic policy expectations have resurfaced, which will boost market sentiment [10] - Last week, the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased, while the arrivals increased. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil in the past four weeks increased by 3.56% compared with the previous four weeks. Considering the shipping time, the future arrivals are expected to further recover, showing a pattern of low in the front and high in the back [10][11] - On the demand side, last week, the molten iron output, blast furnace start - up rate, and blast furnace capacity utilization rate rebounded again. The demand recovered significantly after the September 3 restrictions, but the continuous decline in the profitability of downstream steel enterprises will limit the growth of demand to some extent [11] - As the National Day holiday in October approaches, steel mills have started to restock, which will support the demand for iron ore before the holiday [11] 3.4 Industry News - On September 22, the State Council Information Office held a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [12] - On September 18, 2025, Vietnam's Trade Defense Bureau officially accepted an anti - circumvention investigation application filed by Vietnamese producers on September 10 against hot - rolled coil products originating from China [12] 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to iron ore, including prices, spreads, shipments, arrivals, inventory, and production capacity utilization rates, with data sources from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][18][21]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

【本周沪铜主力2510合约周五收涨，短期偏强运行】本周，沪铜主力2510合约周五下午收于81060元/ 吨，周环比涨1.15%。因美国通胀基本符合预期、劳动力市场走弱，美联储降息压力加大，且国内政策 预期增强，内外宏观向上，推动沪铜盘面重心抬升。不过，下游采购情绪低落，铜现货升贴水承压。 从运行逻辑看，宏观上，美国通胀符合预期、非农年度修正比预期差，强化了美联储降息预期。供给 端，巴拿马准备就cobre Panama铜矿重启谈判，1 - 8月铜矿砂及其精矿累计进口量同比增7.9%；9月检 修影响增加，国内电解铜产量预计环比降幅超4%、同比增超11%。 需求方面，铜价处于高位，精铜杆 下游采购谨慎、消费疲弱。上周10个重点城市新房、二手房成交面积环比均减，9月空冰洗排产总量较 去年同期实绩减7.2%，9月1 - 7日全国乘用车新能源市场零售辆同比减3%，不过9月光伏组件产量预期 环比小幅提高。 库存上，电解铜现货库存周环比微减，LME铜库存继续去库、COMEx铜库存续累。 策 略推荐上，鉴于美国通胀符合预期、非农年度修正差，美降息预期强化，国内电解铜产量预计环比减但 同比增，且铜价高位、消费疲弱，基本面支撑有限 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic policy expectation is rising, and attention should be paid to China's financial data in August and subsequent consumption - related incremental policies [2]. - Attention should be paid to the US fundamentals and policy dynamics, and the "Big Beautiful" Act may support subsequent consumption [3]. - The Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle, and overseas inflation has a smoother upward path [4]. - For commodities, in the domestic market, pay attention to the black and new - energy metal sectors; overseas, focus on precious metals and agricultural products. In terms of strategy, go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - In August, there were initial signs of rising global inflation. China's July export by dollar - terms increased by 7.2% year - on - year, and in August, it increased by 4.4% year - on - year with a slowdown in growth rate. The import growth rate also slowed down. The domestic economic data still faced pressure, but the official manufacturing PMI in August slightly rebounded to 49.4 [2]. - The government introduced a series of policies, including measures to stabilize the real estate market, promote service consumption, and expand effective investment. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September [2]. - On September 11, A - shares rose significantly, with the ChiNext Index soaring over 5% [2]. US Situation - The US ISM manufacturing index in August continued to contract for the sixth month, with improved new orders and a falling price index. The core CPI in August was in line with expectations and the previous value, and the main driving force for price increases came from cars and services [3]. - The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, and the Supreme Court will quickly hear the case. Trump said that India and the US were continuing negotiations to resolve trade barriers [3]. Fed and Global Central Banks - Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting on August 22 turned dovish, paving the way for a September rate cut by the Fed. The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate in August were worse than expected, and the Fed is expected to restart the easing cycle [4]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for the second time, and traders reduced their bets on the ECB's easing policy [4]. Commodity Analysis - Domestically, the black and new - energy metal sectors are sensitive to the supply - side. Overseas, precious metals and agricultural products can be considered due to inflation expectations [5]. - The black sector is still dragged down by downstream demand expectations, and the supply limitation in the non - ferrous sector remains unresolved. The medium - term supply of energy is expected to be relatively loose, and the "anti - involution" space of some chemical products is worthy of attention [5]. - Agricultural products are driven by tariffs and inflation expectations in the short term but need fundamental signals. Precious metals have an opportunity for long - term allocation as the Fed is about to restart the rate - cut cycle [5]. Strategy - Go long on industrial products and precious metals at dips in commodity and stock index futures [6]. Important News - The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on September 12 to introduce the achievements of fiscal reform and development during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [2][8]. - The US Senate Banking Committee approved the nomination of Milan as a Fed governor [4][8]. - The US government appealed against the ruling that blocked the president from removing Fed Governor Lisa Cook [4][8]. - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged, adjusted inflation expectations, and the euro fell [8]. - South Korean President Lee Jae - myung said that the South Korean stock market was still seriously undervalued and left the capital gains tax issue to the National Assembly [4][8]. - The IEA expects a record - high oil surplus in 2026 due to OPEC+ production increases [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously optimistic view and recommends cautious long - positions [6][7] 2. Core View - The attitude of US tariff policy is inconsistent, but the sensitivity of the A - share market to tariff policy has weakened. Without a substantial policy shift, it is difficult to have a significant impact on domestic stock indices. The core of market trading focuses more on domestic policy expectations [6] - Positive policy expectations support the index under the guidance of domestic policies. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting at the end of April. If substantial favorable policies are released, the index is expected to rise [6] - Market sentiment is not overly optimistic. The historical quantile of the volume - weighted average basis of stock index futures, except for IH, is below 5%. The trading volume of the two markets has declined again, and market sentiment is cautious. Before the implementation of policy benefits, a cautiously optimistic view is maintained [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, stock indices showed mixed performance. Except for the Shanghai 50 Index, all other indices closed down. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 1206.95 billion yuan. In the futures index market, IF and IH rose with reduced volume, while IC and IM fell with reduced volume [4] Important Information - Trump said he might "significantly reduce" tariffs on China, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China will fight if provoked and is open to talks. The US Treasury Secretary caused fluctuations in the US stock market, mentioning "significant" trade agreement opportunities and also stating that the US has not proposed tariff reduction [5] Strategy Recommendation - Recommend cautious long - positions [7] Futures Market Observation | Index | Main Contract Intraday Change | Volume | Volume MoM | Open Interest | Open Interest MoM | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | 0.07% | 8.3579 | - 0.055 | 246,898 | - 890 | | IH | 0.32% | 4.1283 | 0.0782 | 80,085 | - 610 | | IC | - 0.31% | 7.5303 | - 1.1813 | 203,548 | - 4,910 | | IM | - 0.90% | 20.9041 | - 1.6265 | 316,470 | - 2,832 | [8] Spot Market Observation | Indicator | Value | | --- | --- | | Shanghai Composite Index Change (%) | 0.03 | | Shenzhen Component Index Change (%) | - 0.58 | | Ratio of Rising to Falling Stocks | 0.42 | | Trading Volume of the Two Markets (billion yuan) | 11,090.19 | | Trading Volume MoM (billion yuan) | - 1206.95 | [9]