文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 今天A股港股比较强势，整体上涨。 截止到收盘，还在4.2星，距离4.1星不远。 大中小盘股都上涨，小盘股上涨更多。 昨天价值风格强势，今天变成成长风格强势。 科创、创业板领涨。 港股也整体上涨。 • 港股恒生指数，上涨43%。港股科技股上涨更多，恒生科技上涨66%。 人民币资产最近一年涨幅排在全球前列。 原因也是因为，一年前估值实在太低了。 当时A股港股在5.9星。 港股科技股上涨超2%。 1. 今天刚好是9月24日一周年。 在一年前，9月中旬，A股港股都在5.9星上下。 过去一年里，A股港股大幅上涨，从5.9星的历史极端低估，上涨到现在的4.2星上下。 过去一年里，截止到9月23日收盘： • 全球股票市场，上涨17%。 很多指数的估值创下历史新低。 同时A股港股整体估值，比全球市场平均估值，低50%。 另一方面，去年9月美联储开启了首次降息，之后美元利率、汇率下降。 全球市场流动性变得充裕。 同时去年9月24日，咱们也推出了一篮子的利好政策。 加上国家队买入上万亿的300、500等指数基金，让A股港股逐渐从底部提升起来。 低估，是最大的利好。 如果再来一轮5点几星，相 ...

Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - A-share market Core Points and Arguments 1. A-share valuation has surpassed the 60th percentile, historically indicating a high probability of continued upward movement, driven by fundamental improvements, policy support, and liquidity easing [1][3][4] 2. July economic data was slightly below expectations, but exports showed an unexpected rebound, indicating a recovery trend in the economy and profits, with industrial profits likely entering a recovery cycle [1][6][14] 3. The A-share earnings cycle bottomed in August 2023, with mid-year performance growth improving compared to the first quarter, suggesting a better fundamental situation than indicated by economic data [1][14] 4. Key drivers for the A-share market's upward trend include improvements in fundamentals, positive policy impacts, and external events, alongside liquidity easing [4][19] 5. Historical data shows that when the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeds the 60th percentile, it typically continues to rise, with only one significant downturn linked to external shocks [3][8] 6. The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to significant inflows of funds, with trading volumes exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan and new fund issuance rebounding to approximately 50 billion yuan [18][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The impact of the delay in U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to maintain some resilience, although growth rates may slow down in the coming months [9] 2. Domestic demand factors, including consumption, manufacturing investment, and infrastructure investment, are projected to maintain high growth levels despite a slight decline in July [10] 3. Real estate investment remains weak, which could suppress overall economic performance, but the economy is still on a recovery path [11] 4. Industrial profits are closely linked to the Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential for profit recovery if PPI growth improves [12][13] 5. The current liquidity environment is favorable, with expectations of continued fund inflows into the A-share market, supported by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [16][17] 6. Recommended sectors for investment include technology (robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI applications), and sectors showing potential for fundamental improvement or catch-up, such as batteries and non-ferrous metals [2][22]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention and momentum, potentially overshadowing gold as a preferred investment asset due to its dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial raw material [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Thursday, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2]. - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42% due to the U.S.-led tariff wars and central banks' significant gold purchases, while silver has only risen by approximately 15%, indicating a lag [7]. - The recent spike in silver prices is narrowing this gap, with significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing holdings by 2.2 million ounces in a single day [8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Alexander Zumpfe from Heraeus Group noted that the current rally in silver is driven by technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and broader investor interest [4]. - Trend investors are reigniting their interest in silver, indicating a rotation from gold to silver [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is experiencing a structural supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Unlike gold, which relies solely on safe-haven demand, silver's structural shortage provides a solid foundation for price increases [10]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic changes, including a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, have led to a decline in bond yields, prompting traders to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December [12]. - Lower interest rate environments typically benefit non-yielding precious metals, with silver often outperforming due to its higher price elasticity [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may just be the beginning, as the combination of safe-haven demand, industrial shortages, and expectations of monetary easing historically leads to significant price impacts [14].