英大证券研究所证券研究报告 金 点 策 略 晨 报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 深成指及沪指相继刷新阶段新高，连续上涨后还能再介入吗？ 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年，行业板块涨多跌少，根据 wind 数据，申万一级行业中，有色金属 涨幅 94.73 %居首，通信涨幅 84.75 %位居第二，电子涨幅 47.88 %位居第三，电 力设备、机械设备、国防军工、基础化工板块涨幅均超 30%，传媒、钢铁、汽车、 建筑材料、轻工制造、计算机等板块也表现不错，建筑装饰、房地产、交通运输、 公用事业、美容护理等板块涨幅偏低。下跌方面，食品饮料以-9.69 %跌幅居首， 煤炭以-5.27 %跌幅倒数第二。 2026 年第一个交易日（周一），A 股市场迎来"开门红"。周二 A 股市场延续强 劲涨势，上证指数盘中突破 4034 点此前高点后继续走强，刷新阶段新高。全天 看，两市成交额突破 2.8 万亿元，延续周一放量态势。继周一深证成指率先创下 阶段新高后，周二沪指同步完成突破，目前三大核心指数中仅剩创业板指尚未触 及阶段新高，市场做多情绪已然全面升温。盘面上看，保险券商板块的走强，成 为推动指数拉升的关 ...

（文章来源：证券时报） 2026年首个交易日，A股上演"开门红"，上证指数涨1.38%，收出罕见的12连阳，重回4000点上方；上 证50、深证成指亦大涨，创出新高。全日成交2.57万亿元，较前一交易日增超5000亿元。脑机接口、保 险、科技等板块涨幅居前。"今日市场行情全面爆发，并非偶然的脉冲式行情，而是基本面改善、政策 红利释放与流动性修复三者共振的必然结果。"中邮证券副总裁、首席经济学家黄付生对证券时报记者 表示。中信建投资深策略分析师夏凡捷表示，人民币升值、科技板块利好集中释放、宏观经济预期改善 及资金面积极信号等多重利好，有望推动A股跨年行情的继续演绎。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，兴业证券发布研报称，本轮牛市躁动行情来看，已具备良好基础：1)经济工作会议延续去年偏扩张的积极定调;2)数据有望继续验证国 内基本面改善：宏观层面，岁末年初有望是验证本轮PPI上行的重要窗口;微观层面，近期全A盈利预期仍在上修，去年四季度业绩"砸坑"后今年年报业绩 预告基本面验证压力不大;3)国内宏观流动性充裕，降准降息仍是政策可选项;微观层面，两融资金回流、险资"开门红"、居民"存款搬家"提速对于股市流 动性的支撑值得期待。 历史上的牛市躁动行情，启动时点和领涨结构有何规律? 复盘2008年以来历轮躁动行情，从启动时间和催化因素来看，大致可以分为以下三类： 11月启动(标黄)：需要强宏观政策明确转向，典型如2008年、2014年、2022年; 12月启动(标红)：年初以来市场表现偏强但临近岁末出现扰动，扰动缓解后开启躁动，典型如2017年、2019年、2020年; 本轮来看，在11月以来一系列压制市场的海外不确定性相继落地后，关注下一个可能进一步催化躁动行情的信号，包括：1)岁末年初降准降息落地的可能 性，下一个观测窗口在1月;2)关键数据对基本面预期改善的提振，包括PPI、PMI、M1 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：尧望后势 历史上的牛市躁动行情，启动时点和领涨结构有何规律？ 复盘2008年以来历轮躁动行情，从启动时间和催化因素来看，大致可以分为以下三类： 1月-2月启动（标蓝）：历史上大部分躁动行情启动的时间点。 | 表1、2008年以来历轮岁末年初躁动行情启动因素及领涨风格复盘 | | --- | | स्टेसि | 起始日 | 结束日 | 启动原因 | | 躁动行情期间 | | 年初以来 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 区间领涨风格 | | 区间领涨风格 | | | | 2008年 | 2008/11/5 | 2009/2/16 | "四万亿"改策 | 先进制造 | 科技 | 消费 | 消费 | 科技 | 金融地产 | | 2009年 | 2009/9/30 | 2010/1/19 | 国内企业盈利增长强劲、 | 科技 | 演奏 | 先进制造 | 先进制造 | 金融地产 | 滴尿 | | | | | 海外QE ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by fundamental improvements and the potential for AI industry catalysis to enhance net asset return rates, leading to higher market valuations [1][3][4]. Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has shown strong performance in 2025, with major indices reaching new highs, including the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 29.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index by 30.22%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index by 25.83% as of November 4 [2][3]. - Despite a notable adjustment in April and a recent high in October, the market is currently in a phase of high-level fluctuations, raising questions about its ability to maintain upward momentum into 2026 [2][3]. Fundamental Improvements - Predictions indicate that the revenue growth rate for non-financial Chinese companies listed overseas could reach 4% in 2026, with operating profit growth expected to be 13%, driven by cost reduction, efficiency improvements, and AI applications [3][4]. - Current valuations of the Hong Kong stock market are considered low, particularly in the tech sector, providing ample room for upward movement [3][4]. Capital Inflows - There is a high certainty of incremental capital inflows into the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, with net inflows from southbound funds exceeding 1.27 trillion HKD in 2025, marking a historical high [4][5]. - The inflow of foreign capital is expected to improve, as foreign investors are currently underweight in Chinese equity assets, and signs of a return of foreign capital are emerging [4][5]. Sector Focus - The technology sector is anticipated to be the main focus for the Hong Kong stock market in 2026, benefiting from industry development and policy support, particularly in AI [6][7]. - There is also a recommendation to pay attention to innovative pharmaceuticals and brokerage firms, as the innovative drug sector is transitioning from investment to realization of results, and brokerages are expected to maintain high growth due to ongoing industry consolidation [6][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the current market dynamics are shifting from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven, with a focus on the potential for improvement in the underlying economic conditions [2][3] - The A-share market is currently in a phase where it has a solid bottom and potential for upward movement, supported by increased margin trading and long-term capital allocation [2] - The upcoming transition in liquidity sources, particularly from foreign capital inflows and domestic "deposit migration," is expected to further support the A-share market [3] Group 2 - The fundamentals of corporate earnings are showing signs of improvement, with a stabilization of ROE and a structural enhancement in performance indicators [3] - The end of the deleveraging cycle from 2020 to 2024 indicates a shift in corporate confidence towards a more positive outlook [3] - Various factors, including a weak dollar, global manufacturing recovery, and advancements in AI and new industries, are expected to sustain structural opportunities in the Chinese equity market [4]

Market Environment - Nasdaq's IPO underpricing is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, monetary policy, and investor risk appetite, which directly affect the funding support for new listings [2] - The Nasdaq index, while focused on tech stocks, is significantly impacted by overall market trends, including economic downturns and geopolitical conflicts, leading to a higher likelihood of IPO failures during such periods [2] Company Fundamentals - Companies listed on Nasdaq are primarily growth-oriented, particularly in sectors like technology, biotech, and renewable energy, but investors demand high certainty in short-term profitability and long-term competitiveness [2] - Basic flaws in a company's fundamentals can easily trigger IPO underpricing, especially if there are significant slowdowns in revenue growth or widening losses [2] Valuation Dynamics - The core issue of IPO underpricing often lies in the conflict between high valuations in the primary market and rational pricing in the secondary market [2] - Companies that have inflated valuations due to prior funding rounds may face significant challenges in the public market if they do not adjust their expectations before the IPO [4] Issuance Mechanism - The IPO pricing mechanism, typically determined by investment banks through book building, can amplify the risk of underpricing if the pricing deviates from market realities [2] - The "anchor effect" from recent comparable company valuations may fail if there are sudden market changes, leading to mispriced IPOs [4] Long-term Perspective - IPO underpricing does not necessarily indicate a company's failure; some quality firms may rebound as market conditions improve or as their fundamentals become more apparent [3] - Companies need to demonstrate improvements in fundamentals, such as revenue growth and reduced losses, to recover from initial underpricing [4] Key Risks - Companies in competitive sectors without unique advantages may be viewed as highly replaceable, increasing the risk of underpricing [2] - Specific events, such as clinical trial failures for biotech firms or regulatory issues for tech companies, can severely impact investor confidence and lead to significant stock price drops [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant recovery of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks over the past year, highlighting the shift from extreme undervaluation to a more balanced valuation, driven primarily by improved liquidity and some signs of fundamental recovery. Group 1: Market Performance - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance recently, with overall increases noted [1][6] - Small-cap stocks have outperformed larger stocks in the recent rally [3] - The technology sector, particularly in Hong Kong, has seen substantial gains, with tech stocks rising over 2% [7] Group 2: Yearly Comparison - A year ago, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were at a historical low valuation of approximately 5.9 stars [8][14] - Over the past year, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks have risen significantly, with the Hang Seng Index increasing by 43% and tech stocks up by 66% [11] - The global stock market has seen an overall increase of 17% during the same period [10] Group 3: Valuation Insights - The current valuation of A-shares is around 4.2 stars, indicating a recovery from the previous year's extreme undervaluation [9][21] - A-shares are still trading at a valuation approximately 50% lower than the global market average [16] - The article notes that the valuation gap has narrowed to about 10% compared to global averages, suggesting less room for further valuation expansion [31] Group 4: Market Drivers - The recent market rally has been primarily driven by improved liquidity rather than strong fundamental growth [21] - A-shares have shown signs of profit recovery, with earnings growth for listed companies improving, albeit still below historical averages [27][28] - The article emphasizes that sustained market growth will depend on continued earnings growth rather than just valuation recovery [37] Group 5: Future Outlook - The potential for further market gains exists if earnings continue to grow alongside reasonable valuations [41] - The article suggests that if the Federal Reserve maintains a low-interest-rate environment, it could provide additional support for market growth [41] - The focus on active selection and enhanced index strategies is highlighted as a way to navigate the post-undervaluation phase [43]

Summary of Conference Call Records Company/Industry Involved - A-share market Core Points and Arguments 1. A-share valuation has surpassed the 60th percentile, historically indicating a high probability of continued upward movement, driven by fundamental improvements, policy support, and liquidity easing [1][3][4] 2. July economic data was slightly below expectations, but exports showed an unexpected rebound, indicating a recovery trend in the economy and profits, with industrial profits likely entering a recovery cycle [1][6][14] 3. The A-share earnings cycle bottomed in August 2023, with mid-year performance growth improving compared to the first quarter, suggesting a better fundamental situation than indicated by economic data [1][14] 4. Key drivers for the A-share market's upward trend include improvements in fundamentals, positive policy impacts, and external events, alongside liquidity easing [4][19] 5. Historical data shows that when the Shanghai Composite Index's valuation exceeds the 60th percentile, it typically continues to rise, with only one significant downturn linked to external shocks [3][8] 6. The recent strong performance of the A-share market is attributed to significant inflows of funds, with trading volumes exceeding 2.2 trillion yuan and new fund issuance rebounding to approximately 50 billion yuan [18][19] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. The impact of the delay in U.S. tariffs on Chinese exports is expected to maintain some resilience, although growth rates may slow down in the coming months [9] 2. Domestic demand factors, including consumption, manufacturing investment, and infrastructure investment, are projected to maintain high growth levels despite a slight decline in July [10] 3. Real estate investment remains weak, which could suppress overall economic performance, but the economy is still on a recovery path [11] 4. Industrial profits are closely linked to the Producer Price Index (PPI), with potential for profit recovery if PPI growth improves [12][13] 5. The current liquidity environment is favorable, with expectations of continued fund inflows into the A-share market, supported by a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [16][17] 6. Recommended sectors for investment include technology (robotics, semiconductors, consumer electronics, AI applications), and sectors showing potential for fundamental improvement or catch-up, such as batteries and non-ferrous metals [2][22]

Core Viewpoint - Silver is gaining attention and momentum, potentially overshadowing gold as a preferred investment asset due to its dual role as both a financial asset and an industrial raw material [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - On Thursday, spot silver surged by 4.5%, reaching above $36 per ounce, marking the highest level since February 2012 [2]. - Over the past 12 months, gold has increased by 42% due to the U.S.-led tariff wars and central banks' significant gold purchases, while silver has only risen by approximately 15%, indicating a lag [7]. - The recent spike in silver prices is narrowing this gap, with significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), increasing holdings by 2.2 million ounces in a single day [8]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Alexander Zumpfe from Heraeus Group noted that the current rally in silver is driven by technical momentum, improved fundamentals, and broader investor interest [4]. - Trend investors are reigniting their interest in silver, indicating a rotation from gold to silver [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Silver is experiencing a structural supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [9]. - Unlike gold, which relies solely on safe-haven demand, silver's structural shortage provides a solid foundation for price increases [10]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Factors - Recent macroeconomic changes, including a contraction in U.S. service sector activity and slowing job growth, have led to a decline in bond yields, prompting traders to bet on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December [12]. - Lower interest rate environments typically benefit non-yielding precious metals, with silver often outperforming due to its higher price elasticity [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent surge in silver prices may just be the beginning, as the combination of safe-haven demand, industrial shortages, and expectations of monetary easing historically leads to significant price impacts [14].