烘焙品牌正在经历大退潮。今年10月28日，85度C北京最后一家门店（白广店）正式停业。与此同时， 公司在泉州、上海和苏州开出了甜甜圈专门店'85℃ DONUt'。 这场 "收缩与试水" 的反差背后，是传统烘焙品牌集体面临的生存困境，更是行业从增量扩张到存量竞 争的深度变迁。 85 度 C 的困局：闭店潮与转型自救的双重奏 85 度 C 的收缩早在业绩数据中埋下伏笔。其母公司美食- KY财报显示，2025 年上半年大陆市场收入下 跌 11.08% 至 35.22 亿元新台币（约合 8.22 亿元人民币），若不调整营运结构，全年亏损恐扩大至超 9300 万元人民币。业绩压力下，品牌开启战略收缩，除全面退出济南市场外，北京、杭州、南京等多 地门店相继闭店，截至 10 月 30 日，其大陆在营门店虽仍超 400 家，但关店趋势已不可逆。 闭店的同时，85 度 C 的转型尝试聚焦于 "轻量化" 突破。新推出的'85℃ DONUt'采用 10 平米左右的档 口式 "店中店" 模式，依托既有门店降低租金与装修成本，14个SKU涵盖 13款甜甜圈与1款三明治，定 价6-10.8元，主打 "新鲜湿润" 的生甜甜圈概念。 从高饱 ...

Group 1 - The 2025 Sohu Finance Annual Forum was successfully held in Beijing, featuring over twenty authoritative guests from academia, business, and investment sectors discussing key topics such as macro policies, industrial upgrades, corporate globalization, capital market reforms, and international dynamics [1] - Wu Xiaoqiu, a professor and former vice president of Renmin University, highlighted that China's economy has transitioned from a "shortage era" to an "excess stage" within just over forty years, emphasizing the need to expand consumption under current conditions [3] - Liu Jipeng, a professor at China University of Political Science and Law, identified three key factors for the sustainable development of A-shares after surpassing 4000 points: major shareholder reductions, low-interest buybacks, and utilizing capital markets for the benefit of investors [5] Group 2 - Teng Tai, an economist, proposed three unconventional measures to achieve the "14th Five-Year Plan" goal of a 6% annual growth rate in retail sales of consumer goods, including issuing a trillion yuan in universal consumption vouchers, reallocating state-owned equity to enhance social security, and creating a wealth effect through capital markets [7] - Yan Xuetong, honorary dean of Tsinghua University's International Relations Institute, stated that the changes in the international situation in 2025 cannot be explained by structural factors but are determined by the actions of major power decision-makers [9] - Sun Liping, a sociologist, noted that China's economy is at a turning point characterized by "overdraft, contraction, and internal competition," requiring comprehensive restoration to return to normal circulation [11] Group 3 - Huang Shaoqing, a professor at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, emphasized the importance of regulating local government economic interventions to combat "involution and efficiency traps" [13] - Zhang Bo, director of the 58 Anjuke Research Institute, indicated that the real estate sector is transitioning from high-leverage expansion to high-quality development, moving away from the "real estate-only" wealth logic [16] - Shi Yongqing, founder and chairman of the Zhongyuan Group, suggested that areas with stagnant population growth should halt land sales to allow existing properties to be absorbed [20] Group 4 - Zhang Ruipeng, vice president of Yili Group, discussed the shift in China's dairy industry from "quantity-driven" to "quality-driven," highlighting the importance of deep processing in industry upgrades [24] - Wu Xiangdong, chairman of Jin Dong Investment Group, stressed that white liquor companies must innovate to achieve breakthroughs during the industry's downturn [27] - Zhen Shaoqiang, president of Penghui Energy Group, noted that the energy storage industry is experiencing a "sweet trouble," with increasing demand but also entering a period of adjustment and intensified competition [41] Group 5 - Liang Yonghui, deputy general manager of Shandong Zhaojin Refining, pointed out that while the long-term bullish trend for gold remains, a price adjustment is expected in the short term due to rapid increases in 2025 [45] - Li Tian, a fund manager at Daqing Investment, highlighted that the rise of new consumer brands is driven by the "she economy," which presents both opportunities and challenges for sustained growth [49] - Mao Dingding, a fund manager at Chuangjin Hexin Fund, indicated that the U.S. biotech sector is approaching a significant investment turning point, with opportunities for both beta and alpha returns [51]

11月27日，"2025搜狐财经年度论坛"在北京举办。 在论坛中，淡水泉投资投资管理委员会成员、基金经理李天带来了题为"如何理解今年新消费的投资机会"的主题分享。 在李天看来，当前新消费品牌，如潮玩、化妆品、奶茶等的崛起，主要驱动力是女性消费的崛起。女性消费具有"喜欢尝鲜"和"乐于分享"两大特点，这能让 新品牌快速爆发，但也导致品牌忠诚度不高、增长持续性面临挑战。 今年，不少新消费公司在讲出海的逻辑，怎么挑选出海领域的新消费？李天表示，在过去的20年，中国被称为世界工厂，将不同的商品出海或出口，卖给全 世界的消费者。但今年很多商品被追加不同的关税，这个时间阶段，出口项目会渐渐从商品转到服务。 但为什么在今年8月份之后，很多新消费品牌的公司又迅速的让大家感觉到遇冷或衰退呢？其实它恰恰也是源于这两个特点。因为女性消费者的偏好会快速 地在不同的品牌之间切换，所以对于一些品牌势能还没有那么强、品牌心智还没有那么强的品牌，很容易流失掉这部分女性消费用户。 第二个就是针对女性消费者很喜欢分享的特点，也会在短时间内，某种程度上透支明年、后年甚至未来的一些消费，而集中到当期消费。所以你会看到很多 以女性消费者为主的品牌确实是 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Strongly Recommended" with an expectation that the stock price will outperform the market by over 20% within six months [56]. Core Insights - The outdoor sports industry is experiencing a surge driven by the "dopamine economy," where emotional consumption is becoming a significant trend among consumers, particularly the younger generation [2][5]. - Both supply and demand sides are contributing to the growth of outdoor sports consumption, with government policies supporting infrastructure and service improvements, and a growing consumer preference for experiential and emotional value in purchases [5][6][9]. - The market for outdoor sports products is projected to reach approximately 27.44 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a stable growth trajectory [26][21]. Summary by Sections 01 Outdoor Sports: Activating the "Dopamine Economy" - Outdoor sports are increasingly favored by young people as a means to achieve happiness and express individuality, leading to a notable rise in emotional consumption [2][5]. - Government policies are actively promoting outdoor sports as a key area for economic growth, with a target to expand the industry to a total scale exceeding 7 trillion yuan by 2030 [6][7][9]. 02 Demand-Side Dominance: Driving Outdoor Sports Consumption - The outdoor sports market is robust, with a projected retail value of 26.22 billion yuan in 2022, growing by 3.39% year-on-year [26]. - The core motivations for outdoor sports participants include stress relief, physical fitness, and a connection with nature, with cycling, hiking, and climbing being the most popular activities [30][26]. - The younger demographic, particularly Generation Z, is leading the charge in emotional consumption, favoring experiences that provide joy and personal expression [10][18]. 03 Investment Recommendations and Key Focus Stocks - The report suggests focusing on segments related to emotional consumption, as this is expected to be a significant investment theme moving forward [49]. - Recommended companies include Anta Sports, 361 Degrees, and Amer Sports, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the growth in the outdoor sports sector [50][51].

Group 1: Consumer Trends and Experiences - The "Golden Week" during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day has led to a vibrant consumer atmosphere in Jiangsu, with diverse and innovative shopping experiences being offered to citizens and tourists [1] - The "Dopamine Stone Kingdom" in Lianyungang has become a popular attraction, featuring artistically designed colorful stones that provide unique photo opportunities, aligning with the 2025 cultural tourism trends [2][3] - Danyang's eyewear market has seen a surge in visitors, with daily foot traffic exceeding 20,000, highlighting the city's status as a major eyewear hub and the popularity of promotional activities [4] Group 2: Entertainment and Events - The 2025 Hua Chenyu concert in Nanjing adopted an interactive "amusement park mode," integrating music, art, and technology to enhance the audience experience [5][6] - Various scenic spots in Nanjing have organized themed events during the holiday, such as "National Style Garden" and "Cyber Heritage Celebration," creating immersive experiences for visitors [6] - The "I Appreciate Poetry and Admire the Moon" event in Qinhuai has attracted tourists with its poetic activities, enhancing the cultural experience during the Mid-Autumn Festival [17] Group 3: Local Attractions and Activities - Yangzhou has promoted "micro-vacations" with local activities that blend ecological charm and modern vibrancy, allowing residents to enjoy tourism without traveling far [7][8] - In Lianyuan, the "Puqin Garden" has hosted performances of traditional Huai Opera, showcasing local culture and attracting visitors during the holiday [9] - The "Seafood Festival" in Rudong has drawn significant crowds, with over 8,000 visitors daily, and has generated substantial sales in various consumer categories [16]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's service industry is experiencing a new trend of overseas expansion, with short dramas, mobile games, and trendy toys becoming significant carriers of new consumption forms, showing strong growth despite increasing tariff frictions this year [1][2]. Group 2 - New consumption overseas is experiencing a counter-trend explosion, with Sensor Tower data indicating that by Q1 2025, Chinese short drama platforms ReelShort and DramaBox will see revenue growth of 31% and 29% respectively, ranking first and second globally in short drama app revenue [2]. - In the gaming sector, 33 Chinese companies made it to the global top 100 mobile game publishers by June 2025, collectively accounting for 33% of the total revenue of the top 100 [2]. Group 3 - The underlying logic of the "dopamine economy" is that short dramas, games, and trendy toys effectively tap into user psychology, creating instant gratification and sustained anticipation, activating the brain's dopamine reward system [3]. - Data from 2020 to 2024 shows a surge in sales of healing toys in Europe, the US, and Japan, reflecting the rigid demand for emotional consumption [3]. Group 4 - The deepening of mobile internet has accelerated this trend, with over 1 billion internet users in China creating fragmented scenarios that promote the prosperity of UGC (User Generated Content) and PUGC (Professional User Generated Content) ecosystems [4]. - The market for mini-program games is expected to experience explosive growth from 2022 to 2024, providing fertile ground for "short and quick" content [4]. Group 5 - The industrialized production mechanism of short dramas involves neuroscience applications, with episodes typically lasting 5-15 minutes and featuring plot twists every 1-2 minutes to trigger dopamine release cycles [5]. - Data-driven production methods, such as A/B testing for content optimization, allow for rapid identification of user preferences through "small-scale trial and error" [5]. Group 6 - Innovations in business models, such as vertical screen formats and advertising monetization, lower user barriers and expand audiences, enabling efficient monetization through traffic and advertising [6]. - The development of short dramas over the past three years represents a reshaping of the content industry landscape and marks the beginning of an unstoppable journey overseas [6]. Group 7 - Chinese companies have a dual advantage in overseas expansion, benefiting from a vast talent pool of over 1 million art exam candidates and 400,000 design graduates annually, forming the world's largest creative talent reservoir [8]. - The business model leverages a complete supply chain, cost efficiency, global self-operated models, and IP creation, forming a tripartite new business model that provides inclusive products and services [8]. Group 8 - The transition from manufacturing to creation is evident as Chinese companies reconstruct global content industry rules through "dopamine products," moving from "Made in China" to "Created in China" with emotional consumer goods [9].

Core Viewpoint - The rise of the潮玩 (trendy toy) industry in China is marked by both opportunities and challenges, as companies like 52TOYS seek to establish themselves amidst heavy competition and reliance on licensed IPs [2][4][21]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The潮玩 industry has seen explosive growth, with over 50,000 related companies currently operating in China, and an estimated 3,100 new registrations expected by 2025 [4][14]. - The global IP derivative market is projected to exceed 1.72 trillion yuan by 2029, indicating significant potential for growth in this sector [4]. - The industry is characterized by a pyramid structure, where top players like LEGO and泡泡玛特 dominate profits, while mid-tier players struggle with homogenization and reliance on licensed IPs [5][22]. Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - 52TOYS has submitted its IPO application, positioning itself as the fifth潮玩 company to do so, but it reported a loss of 122 million yuan for the year, highlighting its dependency on licensed IPs like "Crayon Shin-chan" [2][4]. - The company’s revenue is projected to grow by 30% to 630 million yuan in 2024, yet it still faces a significant loss, which has widened by 70% year-on-year [4][5]. - A strategic investment of 144 million yuan from Wanda Film is seen as a critical move to help 52TOYS bridge the gap between IP development and derivative product monetization [2][12]. Group 3: Consumer Trends and Market Dynamics - The潮玩 market is shifting towards emotional consumption, with younger consumers (ages 18-25) contributing 33% of IP-related spending, indicating a change in purchasing motivations [8][14]. -泡泡玛特 has successfully transformed its products into emotional commodities, leveraging design psychology to create a strong emotional connection with consumers [8][12]. - The trend of "dopamine economy" is emerging, where products are not just toys but also serve as social currency and emotional support for consumers [8][12]. Group 4: Future Directions and Challenges - The潮玩 industry is at a crossroads, needing to evolve from relying on existing IPs to creating original content and ecosystems to remain competitive [18][22]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on localized strategies and partnerships to enhance their global presence, as seen with泡泡玛特's expansion into international markets [19][22]. - The ultimate battleground for潮玩 companies will be in cultural innovation, where success will depend on evolving from "Made in China" to "Brand from China" [19][23].