2025 年 11 月 22 日 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 地产季节性回升，港口吞吐量下行 高频经济周报 (2025.11.16-2025.11.22) 风险提示： 国内政策超预期，海外环境变化超预期 huangwp@swsresearch.com 奕强 A0230524110003 luanqiang@swsresearch.com 王哲一 A0230525100003 wangzy@swsresearch.com 联系人 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 相关研究 证券分析师 黄伟平 A0230524110002 工业生产：生产表现较弱。从上游来看，本期全国电厂样本区域用煤量周度环比下行 1.27%，石油沥青装置开工率周度环比下行 4.20pcts 至 24.80%，高炉开工率周度环比下 行 0.62cts 至 82.17%，粗钢产量周度环比上行 6.00%。从地产链来看，螺纹钢开工率周 度环比上行 1.31pcts 至 43.29%，浮法玻璃开工率环比下行 0.34pcts 至 74.96%，磨机运 转率周度环比下行 0.39pct ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slowdown of deposit relocation does not mean it has ended. Further data observation is needed as the YoY growth rate of non - bank deposits remains at a relatively high level, and there are seasonal disturbances. Asset relocation may continue due to factors such as the high economic base and trade frictions in Q4 [2][14] - The bond market is likely to remain weakly volatile. A defensive approach is recommended, with control over the duration level, and seizing allocation and trading opportunities after adjustments [3][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market showed a "first decline then rise" trend. The 10Y and 30Y Treasury bond rates changed by +0.4bp and -3bp respectively. Market sentiment was affected by factors such as US - China negotiation signals, stock market trends, and economic data [10] - Deposit relocation accelerated in July and August but slowed down in September. It is still too early to conclude that it has ended [11][14] - The bond market is expected to be weakly volatile. It is recommended to focus on defense, control the duration, and choose to allocate certificates of deposit and short - term interest - rate bonds [15] 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Fundamentals - The central bank had a net withdrawal this week, and the capital interest rate increased. Next week, the maturity volume of reverse repurchases is less than that of the previous week [16] - The R001 and DR001 increased by 5bp and 1bp respectively compared to October 11th. The 3M certificate of deposit issuance rate first rose, then fell, and then rose again [18] 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Bond yields first rose and then fell. Except for the 7Y, 20Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds increased. Most of the term spreads of Treasury bonds narrowed [26] - The spread between new and old 10Y Treasury bonds first widened and then narrowed, the spread of 10Y China Development Bank bonds widened negatively, and the spread of 30Y Treasury bonds narrowed [29][30] 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The median duration of the full - sample bond funds slightly increased. The turnover rate of ultra - long bonds increased, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread narrowed rapidly. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.6%, and the exchange leverage ratio decreased to 122.4%. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds slightly narrowed [33] 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase, and the 10Y Treasury bond 250016.IB will be re - issued. The issuance scale of local government bonds will also increase [48][51] - The net financing of certificates of deposit increased this week, and the average issuance rate rose to 1.63% [53] 3.3 Economic Data - In September, the import and export growth rates significantly rebounded, and prices generally recovered. The YoY decline of the freight rate index slowed down in October, and industrial production improved marginally [59][60] - The YoY growth rate of non - bank deposits declined in September, and the M1 growth rate increased [60] 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The release of key US inflation data was postponed due to the government "shutdown." The expectation of a Fed rate cut in October has increased again, mainly due to the weak employment market [69] - US bonds rose, and most emerging markets had more gains than losses [70] 3.5 Major Asset Performance - The Shanghai Gold Index performed the best, followed by Chinese - funded US dollar bonds, Chinese bonds, the US dollar, convertible bonds, Shanghai Copper, rebar, the CSI 300 Index, live pigs, the CSI 1000 Index, and crude oil [74] 3.6 Policy Review - On October 17th, multiple policies were introduced, including promoting logistics cost reduction, expanding green trade, adjusting the Hainan duty - free shopping policy, and more. These policies aim to support economic development and stabilize market expectations [77][82]

Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the economic situation from multiple aspects, including industrial production, people and freight flow, consumption, investment, export, and the performance of major asset classes. It points out that industrial production shows seasonal recovery, people flow increases while freight prices decline slightly, consumption has mixed performance, construction shows weakness while the real - estate market recovers seasonally, port throughput decreases, and shipping indices are differentiated. Also, major asset classes show distinct trends with bond indices rising, stock indices falling, most commodities dropping, and foreign currencies appreciating [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Major Asset Classes - This week, bond indices generally rose, stock indices generally fell, most commodities declined, and foreign currencies generally appreciated. Among them, the ChinaBond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 0.33%; the STAR 50 Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 6.16%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 10.76%, and the Nanhua Energy and Chemicals Index fell the most, with a decline of 3.43%. Foreign currencies appreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest increase, a weekly gain of 1.22%, and the US dollar appreciating against the RMB, with a weekly gain of 0.05% [1]. 2. Industrial Production - Production shows seasonal recovery. In the upstream, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 1.30 pcts to 35.80% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate remained flat at 84.25% compared with last week, and the crude steel output increased by 7.57% week - on - week. In the real - estate chain, the operating rate of rebar production increased by 1.35 pcts to 41.33% week - on - week, the operating rate of float glass increased by 0.34 pcts to 76.65% week - on - week, and the mill operation rate decreased by 0.49 pcts to 37.89% week - on - week. In the consumer goods chain, the operating rate of polyester filament decreased by 0.03 pcts to 91.06% week - on - week, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 1.92 pcts to 75.56% week - on - week, and the operating rate of methanol increased by 4.00 pcts to 84.38% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires increased by 26.21 pcts to 72.72% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 20.56 pcts to 64.52% week - on - week [1]. 3. People and Freight Flow - People flow increased, while freight prices declined slightly. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index increased by 3.25% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 0.66% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 0.11% week - on - week. The subway passenger volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou all decreased. In terms of freight flow, the 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.02% week - on - week, but the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1]. 4. Consumption - Automobile retail sales showed a decline, and prices were differentiated. The previous period's automobile wholesale sales decreased by 1.00% year - on - year, and retail sales increased by 7.00% year - on - year. The 4WMA of the wholesale and retail year - on - year growth rates both declined. This period's movie box office decreased by 73% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of movie - goers decreased by 73% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices were differentiated, with pork prices decreasing by 2.38% week - on - week and vegetable prices increasing by 0.13% week - on - week [1]. 5. Investment - Construction showed weakness, while the real - estate market recovered seasonally. The cement storage capacity ratio increased by 1.6 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 0.01% week - on - week, and the cement shipping rate decreased by 2.1 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.4% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar decreased by 39.4% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction was weak. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 171.0% week - on - week. By city - tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 165.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1]. 6. Export - Port throughput decreased, and shipping indices were differentiated. This period's port cargo throughput decreased by 8.4% week - on - week, and the container throughput decreased by 6.1% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 6.87% week - on - week, the SCFI index increased by 12.92% week - on - week, and the CCFI index decreased by 4.11% week - on - week [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall industrial production is stable, with some indicators showing upward trends and others showing downward trends. Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. Automobile sales have increased year-on-year, and price performance is differentiated. Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. Port throughput has increased, while most shipping indices have declined. Bond indices have generally fallen, most stock indices have risen, commodities have shown mixed performance, and most foreign currencies have depreciated [1]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Large - scale Assets - This week, bond indices generally declined, most stock indices rose, commodities showed mixed performance, and most foreign currencies depreciated. The China Bond 7 - 10 - year China Development Bank Bond Index fell the most, with a weekly decline of 0.19%. The Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose the most, with a weekly increase of 6.47%. The Nanhua Precious Metals Index rose the most among commodities, with a gain of 4.48%, while the Nanhua Black Index fell the most, with a decline of 1.95%. Most foreign currencies depreciated against the RMB, with the Japanese yen having the largest decline of 0.95%, and the US dollar appreciated against the RMB, with a weekly increase of 0.31% [1][6]. 2. Industrial Production - Production is marginally stable. From the upstream perspective, the weekly coal consumption in the national power plant sample area decreased by 1.27% week - on - week, the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants increased by 5.70 pcts to 40.10% week - on - week, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.47 pcts to 84.47% week - on - week, and the crude steel output decreased by 0.67% week - on - week. In the real estate chain, the rebar operating rate decreased by 2.31 pcts to 40.65% week - on - week, the float glass operating rate remained flat at 76.31% compared with last week, and the mill operating rate remained flat at 38.55% compared with last week. In the general consumer goods chain, the polyester filament operating rate remained flat at 91.54% compared with last week, the PTA operating rate decreased by 0.81 pcts to 76.48% week - on - week, and the methanol operating rate increased by 0.12 pcts to 79.51% week - on - week. In the automotive chain, the operating rate of automobile semi - steel tires decreased by 0.08 pcts to 73.58% week - on - week, and the operating rate of automobile all - steel tires increased by 0.06 pcts to 65.72% week - on - week [1][9]. 3. People and Goods Flow - Personnel flow has significantly declined, and freight prices have slightly decreased. The 7 - day moving average (7DMA) of the national migration scale index decreased by 7.21% week - on - week. The 7DMA of the number of domestic flights decreased by 2.93% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of international flights decreased by 1.01% week - on - week. The passenger volumes in Beijing and Shanghai increased, while the subway passenger volumes in Guangzhou and Shenzhen decreased. The 4 - week moving average (4WMA) of the road logistics freight rate index decreased by 0.04% week - on - week, and the total volume was higher than the same period in previous years [1][32]. 4. Consumption - Automobile sales have increased year - on - year, and price performance is differentiated. Both the year - on - year wholesale and retail sales of automobiles increased. In the previous period, the year - on - year sales of passenger cars in the wholesale and retail markets increased by 6.00% and 9.00% respectively compared with last year, and both the 4WMA of the year - on - year wholesale growth rate and the 4WMA of the year - on - year retail growth rate increased. The weekly box office of movies decreased by 55% week - on - week, and the 7DMA of the number of moviegoers decreased by 55% week - on - week. Agricultural product prices showed differentiation, with the pork price decreasing by 0.31% week - on - week and the vegetable price increasing by 4.23% week - on - week [1][46]. 5. Investment - Construction is performing well, and the commercial housing market has improved. The cement inventory - to - capacity ratio increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week, the cement price index increased by 2.97% week - on - week, and the cement shipment rate increased by 0.4 pcts week - on - week. The rebar inventory decreased by 2.8% week - on - week, the proportion of profitable steel mills nationwide decreased by 0.9 pcts week - on - week, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 5.0% week - on - week. Overall, the terminal demand for construction is performing well. The 7DMA of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 21.2% week - on - week. By city tier, the commercial housing transaction areas in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all increased. The 7DMA of the second - hand housing transaction area in 16 cities increased by 1.6% week - on - week, and the national second - hand housing listing price index decreased by 0.1% week - on - week. The land transaction area in 100 cities increased, and the land transaction premium rate decreased week - on - week [1][55]. 6. Export - Port throughput has increased slightly, and most shipping indices have declined. The weekly port cargo throughput increased by 0.1% week - on - week, and the container throughput increased by 0.2% week - on - week. The BDI index increased by 2.54% week - on - week, while the SCFI index and CCFI index decreased by 6.98% and 2.93% respectively week - on - week [1][73].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the implications of the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts and the overall economic outlook for 2025, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy and its impact on global markets [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8][10]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Federal Reserve's Rate Cut**: The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, reducing rates by 25 basis points, bringing the current federal funds rate to a range of 4% to 4.25%. This marks the beginning of a cautious easing cycle, with expectations for two more cuts in 2025 [2][6]. - **Economic Conditions**: The rate cuts are seen as preventive measures against potential economic downturns rather than responses to current recessionary pressures. The Fed's unemployment rate forecasts for 2025 to 2027 remain stable, indicating no immediate recession risks [6][7]. - **Long-term Inflation Concerns**: There are ongoing debates about long-term inflation pressures, with the potential need for tighter monetary policies if inflation expectations remain elevated. The influence of political factors on the Fed's independence is also highlighted [4][6][7]. - **Debt and Fiscal Challenges**: The rising government debt-to-GDP ratio in developed countries is causing widening spreads between long-term and short-term bonds, reflecting investor distrust in long-term government bonds [5][6]. Market Reactions and Asset Performance - **Global Asset Trends**: In 2025, global risk assets experienced significant rebounds after initial declines, with the Nasdaq index leading gains at 27%, followed by other indices and commodities [8][9][10]. - **Market Sentiment**: Following the Fed's rate cut, markets showed signs of high volatility, with a cautious outlook on risk assets due to potential corrections after substantial gains [10]. - **Gold and Commodities**: Gold prices are closely tied to risk sentiment, with recent increases reflecting market expectations of Fed easing. However, uncertainties remain regarding future price movements if rate cut expectations are not met [15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **China's Economic Outlook**: China's economy is stabilizing, with strong external demand despite weak internal consumption. Exports, particularly to regions outside the U.S., are performing well, providing crucial support for economic stability [11][12]. - **Domestic Investment Trends**: There is a notable decline in fixed asset investment and retail sales in China, indicating ongoing weaknesses in domestic demand [12][13]. - **Policy Predictions**: Anticipated policy measures in China may include early issuance of government debt and potential interest rate cuts to stimulate the economy, particularly in the real estate sector [14][17]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the economic landscape and market dynamics as influenced by the Federal Reserve's actions and broader global trends.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: After the expiration of the tariff exemption in July, Trump significantly upgraded tariffs on multiple countries. From August 1st, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be imposed on goods from countries such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods will be raised to 35%; and a unified 30% tariff will be imposed on the EU and Mexico. Additionally, a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, and a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027. The overall tariff strategy shows a pattern of "intensive deployment + delayed implementation" to strengthen negotiation chips and the expectation of industrial back - flow. Currently, it has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Tariff disturbances are generally limited. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the increase in risk appetite dominate the market. The US stocks continued to reach new highs, the US dollar index fluctuated and rebounded, and gold strengthened slightly. This week, focus on the US CPI and retail data for June [2]. - Domestic: In June, prices generally showed weak performance. The year - on - year CPI turned positive to 0.1%, and the core CPI slightly rebounded, mainly driven by the rebound of consumer goods such as oil prices. The decline of PPI widened to - 3.6%, reaching a new low in the past two years, significantly affected by the real estate and black - metal sectors, which reflects the necessity of the current policy orientation of optimizing the supply structure and anti - involution. Currently, the domestic market is in a resonance window period with stable external risks, moderate internal economic fluctuations, and continuously rising policy expectations. The optimization of the supply side and the expectation of real - estate policies became the main trading lines last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500 mark. As the index continuously reaches new highs, be vigilant about the callback pressure caused by profit - taking of funds. It is not advisable to chase the high in the short term. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant. Policy expectations and the warming of the stock market suppress the bond market. Currently, interest rates do not have a significant basis for upward movement and lack the momentum to break through the previous low. They will fluctuate in the short term waiting for a catalyst. This week, focus on China's financial, foreign trade data for June and the economic data for the second quarter [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - Trump launched a new round of tariff offensives. Since early July, Trump has intensively announced multiple rounds of country - specific tariff upgrades targeting major trading partners in Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. From July 7th, the Trump administration successively announced tariff increases on goods from multiple countries, including 25% - 40% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods was raised to 35% due to USMCA implementation issues; and a unified 30% tariff on the EU and Mexican goods, with August 1st set as the unified effective date, forming a concentrated pressure situation. The tariff measures show the characteristic of "chipping" with the intention of structural industrial protection, which has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Most of these tariffs have a grace period for implementation, reflecting the strategy of "tariffs for negotiation" to prompt other countries to make concessions on trade rules and manufacturing investment. Trump also proposed to raise the benchmark of reciprocal tariffs from 10% to 15 - 20% and announced a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027 to promote the back - flow of the domestic high - end manufacturing industry. An investigation was launched on copper imports and a 50% tariff is planned to be imposed. Currently, Canada has chosen to postpone counter - measures to争取 a negotiation window, and the EU plans to jointly counter US tariffs with Canada and Japan [5]. Domestic Macro - In June, prices were weakly running. The CPI and PPI weakened as expected. The year - on - year CPI was 0.1%, the core CPI was at a high for the year, and the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year, and the core CPI moderately recovered. The decline of food prices eased, and beef prices started to rise after a two - year decline, while pork prices changed from rising to falling. The decline of non - food prices narrowed, and the downward pressure on energy prices weakened. The decline of industrial products intensified, with oil and non - ferrous metals being relatively strong and black metals being relatively weak. The PPI's internal price - rising momentum remained weak [8][9]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The A - share market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3510.18, up 1.09% from the previous week, with a monthly increase of 1.91% and a year - to - date increase of 4.73%. The performance of overseas stock markets varied. The US stocks generally rose, while the Japanese stock market declined. The South Korean stock market had a significant increase, with a year - to - date increase of 32.35% [12]. - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally rose slightly last week. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 3.49BP, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.05BP. Overseas, the yields of US and European bonds also generally rose [16]. - Commodity: The commodity market generally rose last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 1.01%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.20%. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, while copper prices declined [18]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose last week, up 0.91%. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose slightly, while the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the RMB declined [21]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report provides data on domestic high - frequency indicators such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities, and second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities [23]. - Overseas: The report provides data on overseas high - frequency indicators such as Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment insurance claims, US Treasury yield spread inversion, and FedWatch interest rate change probability [25][26]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events to be released this week, including China's trade balance, export and import growth rates, and GDP data for June; the US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data for June; and the eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and CPI data [32][33].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the broader economy and financial markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Political Influence on Federal Reserve Policy**: The Federal Reserve's decisions may be influenced by political factors, as seen in the shift of Jerome Powell's stance from dovish to hawkish after his nomination, indicating that political considerations can interfere with monetary policy decisions [1][2] 2. **Impact of Early Candidate Announcements**: The potential early announcement of Federal Reserve candidates by Trump could disrupt market expectations and the current Fed's decision-making process, leading to increased uncertainty in monetary policy [4] 3. **Importance of Upcoming Economic Data**: The non-farm payroll data on July 3 and subsequent inflation data are critical for determining the Fed's future interest rate path. Weak employment data could pave the way for rate cuts, while strong data may reduce the likelihood of such actions [5][6] 4. **Signs of Economic Weakness**: Current economic indicators show signs of weakening, including declining manufacturing and services PMI, and a slowdown in consumer credit card loans, suggesting a potential slowdown in consumption [5][6] 5. **Inflationary Pressures from Tariffs and Oil Prices**: Rising tariffs and oil prices are expected to exert upward pressure on inflation, as reflected in the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, indicating a delayed price transmission effect [7] 6. **Stabilizing Demand for U.S. Treasuries**: In light of high U.S. fiscal deficits, measures are being taken to stabilize demand for U.S. Treasuries, including the "Genius Act" to promote compliance for stablecoins, which can be exchanged for short-term Treasuries [8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Diverse Scenarios for Asset Performance**: Various scenarios for future asset performance have been outlined: - Weak economic conditions may favor bonds and technology sectors due to liquidity dominance [9] - Resilient economic conditions may benefit cyclical sectors, while bond pricing may stagnate [10] - Unexpected inflation driven by oil prices and geopolitical factors could negatively impact both stock and bond markets [10]

Group 1: Global Asset Performance - During the "May Day" holiday, global markets showed a positive trend with most major assets rising, particularly natural gas which saw a significant increase of over 10% [2] - European and Asian stock markets also performed well, with indices such as the German DAX, Nasdaq, and Nikkei 225 rising by more than 2% [2] - In contrast, oil prices fell, with NYMEX WTI crude oil decreasing by 1.68%, marking it as the worst performer among major assets during the holiday [2] Group 2: Renminbi Strength - On May 2, the offshore Renminbi surged nearly 1%, reaching a high of 7.1843, the strongest level in nearly six months [5] - The maximum increase over two trading days exceeded 900 points, indicating strong market momentum [5] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The "May Day" holiday saw record-high travel data, with nationwide railway passenger volume exceeding 23.11 million on May 1, a historical peak [7] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce noted ongoing discussions with the U.S. regarding tariff negotiations, suggesting potential easing of trade tensions [7] - Foreign investment in Renminbi-denominated bonds increased significantly, with net purchases reaching $33.2 billion from April 1 to 18, driven by China's stable macroeconomic environment [7] Group 4: U.S. Job Market - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. rose to 241,000, surpassing expectations and indicating potential layoffs due to tariffs impacting the economy [8] - This data comes ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, where it is widely anticipated that interest rates will remain unchanged [8] Group 5: Oil Production Increase - On May 5, international crude oil prices fell sharply as OPEC announced plans to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June, marking the second consecutive month of higher-than-expected output [11] Group 6: Berkshire Hathaway Shareholder Meeting - The annual Berkshire Hathaway shareholder meeting featured discussions on the current state of the U.S. economy, trade wars, and overseas investment opportunities, with insights from Chairman Warren Buffett [13] Group 7: Apple Product Launch - Reports suggest that Apple plans to adjust its iPhone release schedule, potentially introducing its first foldable iPhone alongside the iPhone 18 Pro series in 2026 [15]

继续带小舅子游台州，昨天神仙居，今天去另一个5a景点，天台国清寺。 国清寺近几年在抖音上也开始走红，大家都知道它是唯一一个不收门票的5a寺庙，它是日本、韩国天台宗的祖庭，在海外有巨大的影响力，它是李修缘 （济公活佛）出家的寺庙。 除了这些外，可能有人还听说过它曾经是80年代红遍全国的《少林寺》电影拍摄地。这件事是真的，李连杰扮演的觉远和尚剃度出家的那一幕，就是在国 清寺的大雄宝殿。 听了我上面的讲述，估计有些读者会感到困惑，台州的一座寺庙，怎么就在日本和韩国有那么大影响力呢？ 之所以选在国清寺拍《少林寺》，是因为80年代的时候真正的少林寺已经年久失修，破旧凋敝，为了电影拍摄效果，导演组在全国范围内挑选"颜值高"的 寺庙4座，其中之一就有国清寺。 至于国清寺为什么"颜值高"，这事...也有渊源，是因为在那个中国普遍贫瘠的年代，国务院曾经在1973年专项拨款30万重修了国清寺，拍板签字的是周总 理，这背后有外交上的故事。 就在前一年，1972年9月，中国与日本恢复邦交，时任首相田中角荣在与周总理会谈的时候提出一个请求，希望能够参拜浙江天台的国清寺，因为田中家 世代都是天台宗的信徒，所以很想去宗门祖庭一睹风采。 这 ...