Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Overseas: After the expiration of the tariff exemption in July, Trump significantly upgraded tariffs on multiple countries. From August 1st, tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% will be imposed on goods from countries such as Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods will be raised to 35%; and a unified 30% tariff will be imposed on the EU and Mexico. Additionally, a 50% tariff will be imposed on copper imports, and a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027. The overall tariff strategy shows a pattern of "intensive deployment + delayed implementation" to strengthen negotiation chips and the expectation of industrial back - flow. Currently, it has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Tariff disturbances are generally limited. The rising expectation of interest rate cuts and the increase in risk appetite dominate the market. The US stocks continued to reach new highs, the US dollar index fluctuated and rebounded, and gold strengthened slightly. This week, focus on the US CPI and retail data for June [2]. - Domestic: In June, prices generally showed weak performance. The year - on - year CPI turned positive to 0.1%, and the core CPI slightly rebounded, mainly driven by the rebound of consumer goods such as oil prices. The decline of PPI widened to - 3.6%, reaching a new low in the past two years, significantly affected by the real estate and black - metal sectors, which reflects the necessity of the current policy orientation of optimizing the supply structure and anti - involution. Currently, the domestic market is in a resonance window period with stable external risks, moderate internal economic fluctuations, and continuously rising policy expectations. The optimization of the supply side and the expectation of real - estate policies became the main trading lines last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached the 3500 mark. As the index continuously reaches new highs, be vigilant about the callback pressure caused by profit - taking of funds. It is not advisable to chase the high in the short term. The stock - bond seesaw effect is significant. Policy expectations and the warming of the stock market suppress the bond market. Currently, interest rates do not have a significant basis for upward movement and lack the momentum to break through the previous low. They will fluctuate in the short term waiting for a catalyst. This week, focus on China's financial, foreign trade data for June and the economic data for the second quarter [3]. Summary by Directory Overseas Macro - Trump launched a new round of tariff offensives. Since early July, Trump has intensively announced multiple rounds of country - specific tariff upgrades targeting major trading partners in Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. From July 7th, the Trump administration successively announced tariff increases on goods from multiple countries, including 25% - 40% on Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, South Africa, Laos, and Myanmar; 50% on Brazilian goods; the tariff on Canadian goods was raised to 35% due to USMCA implementation issues; and a unified 30% tariff on the EU and Mexican goods, with August 1st set as the unified effective date, forming a concentrated pressure situation. The tariff measures show the characteristic of "chipping" with the intention of structural industrial protection, which has triggered the brewing of counter - measures from multiple countries. Most of these tariffs have a grace period for implementation, reflecting the strategy of "tariffs for negotiation" to prompt other countries to make concessions on trade rules and manufacturing investment. Trump also proposed to raise the benchmark of reciprocal tariffs from 10% to 15 - 20% and announced a 200% tariff on imported drugs starting from 2027 to promote the back - flow of the domestic high - end manufacturing industry. An investigation was launched on copper imports and a 50% tariff is planned to be imposed. Currently, Canada has chosen to postpone counter - measures to争取 a negotiation window, and the EU plans to jointly counter US tariffs with Canada and Japan [5]. Domestic Macro - In June, prices were weakly running. The CPI and PPI weakened as expected. The year - on - year CPI was 0.1%, the core CPI was at a high for the year, and the PPI decline widened to - 3.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year, and the core CPI moderately recovered. The decline of food prices eased, and beef prices started to rise after a two - year decline, while pork prices changed from rising to falling. The decline of non - food prices narrowed, and the downward pressure on energy prices weakened. The decline of industrial products intensified, with oil and non - ferrous metals being relatively strong and black metals being relatively weak. The PPI's internal price - rising momentum remained weak [8][9]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: The A - share market generally rose last week. The Shanghai Composite Index reached 3510.18, up 1.09% from the previous week, with a monthly increase of 1.91% and a year - to - date increase of 4.73%. The performance of overseas stock markets varied. The US stocks generally rose, while the Japanese stock market declined. The South Korean stock market had a significant increase, with a year - to - date increase of 32.35% [12]. - Bond: Domestic bond yields generally rose slightly last week. The 1 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 3.49BP, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose by 2.05BP. Overseas, the yields of US and European bonds also generally rose [16]. - Commodity: The commodity market generally rose last week. The Nanhua Commodity Index rose by 1.01%, and the CRB Commodity Index rose by 1.20%. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, while copper prices declined [18]. - Foreign Exchange: The US dollar index rose last week, up 0.91%. The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB rose slightly, while the exchange rates of the euro, pound, and yen against the RMB declined [21]. High - Frequency Data Tracking - Domestic: The report provides data on domestic high - frequency indicators such as the congestion index of 100 cities, subway passenger volume in 23 cities, commercial housing transaction area in 30 cities, and second - hand housing transaction area in 12 cities [23]. - Overseas: The report provides data on overseas high - frequency indicators such as Redbook commercial retail sales, unemployment insurance claims, US Treasury yield spread inversion, and FedWatch interest rate change probability [25][26]. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - The report lists important economic data and events to be released this week, including China's trade balance, export and import growth rates, and GDP data for June; the US CPI, PPI, and retail sales data for June; and the eurozone's ZEW economic sentiment index and CPI data [32][33].

7 月联储会降息吗？20260626 摘要 美联储政策受政治因素影响：联储官员提名前后立场可能转变，如鲍威 尔在 2021 年底至 2022 年初争取提名期间态度鸽派，获正式提名后迅 速转鹰派，表明政治考量可能干扰货币政策决策。 特朗普提前公布联储候选人可能扰乱市场预期：提前宣布提名可能导致 "影子美联储主席"出现，增加联储决策和市场预期的不确定性，尽管 候选人释放的信号可能影响市场定价，但最终政策走向仍取决于基本面。 7 月非农和通胀数据至关重要：就业数据转弱和通胀数据平淡可能消除 联储对通胀的担忧，为降息铺平道路。若就业数据仍具韧性，7 月降息 概率较低，但若数据明显走弱，市场可能进一步定价 7 月降息。 美国经济基本面现弱化迹象：制造业 PMI 和服务业 PMI 回落，消费者信 用卡贷款放缓，显示消费可能放缓。但就业数据依然稳健，特别是服务 业就业强劲，可能干扰联储决策。 关税和油价上涨或推升通胀：关税价格抬升已在 PPI 数据中有所体现， 价格传导存在时滞。6 月份油价上涨也可能对通胀读数产生扰动。 Q&A 联储 6 月议息会议的点阵图显示出哪些内部意见分歧，以及这些分歧可能受到 哪些因素的影响？ 联 ...

"五一"小长假顺利结束，假期这6件大事有望对节后国内资本市场有一定的影响。 // 假期全球大类资产表现 // "五一"假期，全球多个市场正常交易，大类资产涨多跌少。Wind数据显示，假期天然气涨幅最大，NYMEX天然气上涨遥遥领先，累计涨幅超过10%。紧 随其后欧美日股市表现也不错，其中 德国DAX、 纳斯达克指数、日经225等股指上涨在2%以上。 而 欧佩克宣布即将增产 ，油价领跌，NYMEX WTI原油下跌1.68%，成为假期大类资产中表现最差的。 // 美上周初请失业金人数超预期 // 美国上周初请失业金人数增幅超过预期，可能暗示因关税而导致的裁员增加，关税在第一季度拖累经济。Wind数据显示，美国上周初请失业金人数为24.1 万人，预期22.4万人，前值由22.2万人修正为22.3万人。并且仅次于今年新高2月其中一周的24.2万人。 本周全球金融市场将迎来"美联储时刻"。按照议程安排，美联储将于当地时间5月6日至7日举行议息会议，并将于5月7日公布最新利率决议。市场普遍预 计，美联储本次将维持利率不变。 // 人民币一度创近半年新高 // 5月2日，离岸人民币大涨近1%，5月5日开盘继续上涨，盘中一度 ...

继续带小舅子游台州，昨天神仙居，今天去另一个5a景点，天台国清寺。 国清寺近几年在抖音上也开始走红，大家都知道它是唯一一个不收门票的5a寺庙，它是日本、韩国天台宗的祖庭，在海外有巨大的影响力，它是李修缘 （济公活佛）出家的寺庙。 除了这些外，可能有人还听说过它曾经是80年代红遍全国的《少林寺》电影拍摄地。这件事是真的，李连杰扮演的觉远和尚剃度出家的那一幕，就是在国 清寺的大雄宝殿。 听了我上面的讲述，估计有些读者会感到困惑，台州的一座寺庙，怎么就在日本和韩国有那么大影响力呢？ 之所以选在国清寺拍《少林寺》，是因为80年代的时候真正的少林寺已经年久失修，破旧凋敝，为了电影拍摄效果，导演组在全国范围内挑选"颜值高"的 寺庙4座，其中之一就有国清寺。 至于国清寺为什么"颜值高"，这事...也有渊源，是因为在那个中国普遍贫瘠的年代，国务院曾经在1973年专项拨款30万重修了国清寺，拍板签字的是周总 理，这背后有外交上的故事。 就在前一年，1972年9月，中国与日本恢复邦交，时任首相田中角荣在与周总理会谈的时候提出一个请求，希望能够参拜浙江天台的国清寺，因为田中家 世代都是天台宗的信徒，所以很想去宗门祖庭一睹风采。 这 ...