早上起来，市场已经炸锅了，英伟达要投1000亿美元给OpenAI。 越来越卷的AI行业 下面这个国外大厂的AI芯片的Roadmap，比国内还要激进，基本都是一年会出一到两个新的产品。 英伟达与OpenAI的这项高达1000亿美元的投资协议并非单纯的资金注入，而是通过逐步部署10吉瓦 AI数据中心的方式实现，首阶段将于2026年下半年上线，使用英伟达的Vera Rubin平台。 英伟达的投资动机 1、锁定客户需求与供应链主导权，OpenAI作为AI领域的领军者，英伟达通过投资确保OpenAI优先 使用其芯片，形成"资金循环"：英伟达提供资金，OpenAI用于购买英伟达硬件。这不仅保证了英伟 达的销售需求，还防止OpenAI转向竞争对手，如Google的TPU或AMD的MI系列芯片。 这里的"资金闭环"，网上有多种解释，无论是通过Oracle，还是通过微软和Coreweave，对英伟达和 OpenAI来说，都是有利的。 THE INFINITE MONEY GLITCH OpenAl $100 billion voilla oo ta 8100 billion NVIDIA. 2、这一合作标志着英伟达从芯片供应商 ...

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the U.S. have been overlooked for a long time, but expectations for their performance have risen due to anticipated easing of interest rates by the Federal Reserve. However, recent reports indicate that small-cap stocks still lack momentum and may not sustain their recent performance [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Russell 2000 index, which measures small-cap stocks, has shown a year-to-date increase of approximately 2%, significantly lagging behind the S&P 500's increase of about 9% [3]. - Despite a brief period of outperformance against the S&P 500, analysts believe this momentum is tied more to expectations of Fed rate cuts rather than improvements in small-cap earnings prospects [1][3]. Group 2: Economic Conditions - Historically, small-cap stocks tend to perform well during extreme economic conditions, either recession or boom, but such conditions are currently not present [5]. - The proportion of loss-making companies within the Russell 2000 index is at a historical high, contributing to investor caution regarding small-cap stocks [5]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Some investors remain optimistic about small-cap stocks, citing potential for the Russell 2000 index to outperform the S&P 500 despite recent underperformance [5]. - The rapid development in the AI sector has raised bubble risks, reminiscent of the tech investment boom in the late 1990s, leading some investors to consider small-cap stocks as a safer bet [5]. Group 4: Valuation and Opportunities - The Russell 2000 index has a higher price-to-earnings ratio but a lower price-to-book ratio compared to the S&P 500, suggesting that small-cap stocks may be undervalued [6]. - The active IPO market in 2023, with 95 IPOs raising $12.9 billion, could enhance the quality of small-cap stocks and attract more investors [6].

Core Viewpoint - Small-cap stocks in the U.S. have been overlooked, with initial optimism at the beginning of the year due to anticipated interest rate cuts, but recent analysis indicates a lack of momentum in this sector [1][5]. Performance Analysis - The Russell 2000 index has shown better performance than the S&P 500 since August, but this trend may not last, as the recent gains are attributed to rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts rather than the earnings outlook for small-cap stocks [1][5]. - Year-to-date, the Russell 2000 index has increased by approximately 2%, lagging behind the S&P 500's gain of about 9% [5]. Market Conditions - Small-cap stocks are generally more sensitive to changes in borrowing costs and economic conditions due to their higher debt levels and reliance on external financing [5]. - The proportion of loss-making companies within the Russell 2000 index is at a historical high, contributing to investor hesitance [8]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that for small-cap stocks to perform well, conditions such as a significant economic downturn or a very strong economy are necessary, which are currently lacking [8]. - Despite the underperformance, there are still optimistic views regarding the potential for the Russell 2000 index to outperform the S&P 500, especially with the ongoing advancements in AI and the potential for a shift in investor focus towards undervalued sectors [8][9]. Valuation Insights - The Russell 2000 index's price-to-earnings ratio is currently above average at 16.3 times, indicating limited opportunities for growth [8]. - The price-to-book ratio of small-cap stocks is lower than that of large-cap stocks, suggesting they may be undervalued [9]. IPO Activity - Since the beginning of 2025, there have been 95 IPOs in the U.S. raising $12.9 billion, compared to 73 IPOs raising $16 billion in 2024, indicating a potential increase in the quality of small-cap stocks [9].