[ 责编：邢彬 ] 高云龙指出，广大民营企业和民营企业家要锚定就业优先导向，以产业升级扩容高质量就业岗位；聚焦 人力资源供需匹配，加强技能人才培养，以需求牵引助力破解结构性就业矛盾；紧盯重点群体就业，以 精准帮扶推动民生保障有效覆盖；构建和谐劳动关系，以利益共同体激发干事创业热情。各级工商联要 与人力资源社会保障部门、工会紧密协作，加强惠企纾困政策宣传引导和落地落实，服务民企稳岗扩岗 和人才培养，协同促进高质量充分就业。 根据表彰决定，100家民营企业、32家企业工会和32位民营企业家、32位企业员工受到表彰。 人民日报北京1月6日电（记者杨昊）1月6日，全国就业与社会保障先进民营企业暨关爱员工实现双赢表 彰大会在京举行。全国政协副主席、全国工商联主席高云龙出席会议并讲话。 ...

根据美联储2025年12月30日公布的最新政策会议纪要，尽管12月举行的货币政策会议决定年内第三次降 息，但美联储内部存在显著分歧，凸显出在经济前景不确定性加剧的背景下，美联储正面临艰难的政策 权衡。 这份会议纪要释放出来哪些信号？ 美联储政策制定者对2026年利率路径存在巨大分歧的原因是什么？ 接下来美联储是否继续降息又将取决于哪些因素？ 总台环球资讯《闪评》邀请中国人民大学经济学院教授王晋斌进行点评。 观点速览 这份会议纪要释放的关键信号是，美联储认为当前的降息幅度是比较合理的，现在通胀和就业之间处于 一个相对平衡状态。 美联储对2026年利率路径的看法出现极端分化原因有三：首先，美联储官员在立场上存在"就业优 先"和"通胀优先"的分歧；其次，受美国联邦政府此前"停摆"造成的数据缺失影响，美联储官员自行收 集数据判断利率路径走向或存在偏差；再次，外界对2026年美国经济增长及通胀预测存在较大差距。 在下一次议息会议中，美联储需要观察劳动力市场和通胀是否出现了一定倾斜，从而决定下一步利率路 径。 来源：环球资讯广播 ...

Core Viewpoint - The central economic work meeting emphasizes prioritizing people's livelihoods as a fundamental aspect of economic policy, reflecting a commitment to high-quality development and a people-centered development philosophy [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Stability - The meeting highlights the importance of stabilizing employment as a foundational element, with specific actions aimed at ensuring job security for key groups such as college graduates and migrant workers [1]. - There is a clear signal to prioritize employment, focusing on both current job stability and improving the quality of employment through institutional arrangements [1]. Group 2: Social Services and Public Welfare - The meeting outlines various initiatives to enhance education, healthcare, elderly care, and childbirth support, aiming to provide more equitable and accessible public services [2]. - Specific measures include increasing high school enrollment and optimizing drug procurement processes, addressing the most pressing concerns of the public [2]. Group 3: Integration of Livelihood Improvement and High-Quality Development - The meeting stresses the need to integrate livelihood improvements with high-quality development, promoting urbanization and rural revitalization while ensuring the sustainability of poverty alleviation efforts [2]. - The commitment to a dual carbon approach aims to drive a comprehensive green transformation, enhancing living standards while expanding development opportunities [2]. Group 4: Public Sentiment and Economic Stability - The focus on people's livelihoods is seen as a way to strengthen public sentiment and confidence, which is crucial for long-term economic stability [2]. - By addressing the needs and concerns of the populace, the government aims to enhance the sense of gain, happiness, and security among citizens, thereby fostering a robust economic environment [2].

Group 1: Employment and Social Security - The focus on employment as a key aspect of people's livelihoods has led to over 2.3 million new urban jobs created in Shanxi during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, exceeding planned targets [2] - The province has spent over 9 billion yuan on employment subsidies and 4.5 billion yuan on stabilizing jobs, effectively maintaining employment stability [2] - The social security system has expanded significantly, with basic pension, unemployment, and work injury insurance coverage reaching 27.41 million, 5.82 million, and 6.75 million people respectively, ahead of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goals [3] Group 2: Talent Development and Innovation - Shanxi has established 115 postdoctoral research stations and 64 innovation practice bases, recruiting over 2,500 postdoctoral researchers, doubling the number from three years ago [4] - The province has trained over 17,000 high-level talents through large-scale knowledge updating initiatives, contributing to a skilled workforce of 5.89 million, with high-skilled talents increasing by 66% compared to the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan" [4][5] Group 3: Income Distribution and Labor Relations - The minimum wage standards have been raised three times, increasing by 26.5% since the end of the "13th Five-Year Plan," with current monthly minimum wages set at 2,150 yuan, 2,050 yuan, and 1,950 yuan across three regions [6] - A total of 43,000 wage arrears cases have been resolved during the "14th Five-Year Plan," recovering 2.81 billion yuan in wages for 197,000 workers, enhancing labor rights protection [6]

Economic Growth and Income Distribution - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, per capita disposable income in Jiangsu Province is projected to increase from 47,500 yuan in 2021 to 55,400 yuan in 2024, with the urban-rural income ratio narrowing from 2.16:1 to 2.04:1 [1] - The provincial government emphasizes the importance of promoting common prosperity and has initiated various measures to address social concerns, including high-quality employment and urban-rural integration [2] Employment and Job Creation - Jiangsu aims to maintain an average annual urban employment increase of over 1.35 million during the "14th Five-Year Plan," ranking second nationally, with a targeted urban survey unemployment rate kept below 5% [3] - The province plans to implement a series of policies to support enterprises and stabilize employment, including a 18 billion yuan employment stabilization subsidy [3] - Innovative recruitment strategies, such as hosting job fairs outside sports events, have led to the organization of 328 "talent night markets" and the provision of 164,000 job positions in the first three quarters of the year [4] Support for Entrepreneurship and Innovation - Jiangsu has launched initiatives to support entrepreneurship, assisting 120,000 individuals and distributing over 2 billion yuan in entrepreneurial subsidies and guaranteed loans [5] - The province has attracted 3,135 domestic and international PhD graduates and established 79 national-level postdoctoral research stations, the highest in the country [5] Social Security and Welfare - Jiangsu's social security system aims to expand coverage and improve benefits, with over 61.6 million people enrolled in basic pension insurance, and an annual increase of over 400,000 [6] - The average monthly minimum standard for basic living allowances has increased by 5.2% to 919 yuan, benefiting 620,000 individuals [7] Rural Development and Income Growth - Jiangsu is focusing on rural revitalization to reduce urban-rural income disparities, with initiatives like the development of village-level collective economies and targeted funding for rural projects [8] - The province has allocated 5.796 billion yuan in subsidies for the construction of livable and workable rural areas, with 2,280 such villages already established [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has slightly lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points, signaling a shift in focus from inflation to employment risks amid high inflation rates, raising questions about the motivations and implications of potential further rate cuts [1][2][3]. Group 1: Rate Cut Motivation and Policy Logic - The change in risk assessment indicates that the Fed prioritizes employment concerns over inflation, with a consensus that moderate rate cuts can mitigate employment deterioration without significantly impacting inflation expectations [2][3]. - The reassessment of inflation structure shows that while supply chain issues and tariffs affect prices, the overall impact on consumer prices remains moderate, allowing for limited rate cuts to buffer demand-side pressures [4][5]. - The operational principles emphasize gradual rate cuts, data dependency, and reversibility to balance restrictive financial conditions with avoiding an economic downturn [5][6]. Group 2: Impact on U.S. Employment and Inflation - Rate cuts are expected to first benefit interest-sensitive sectors, easing corporate cash flow pressures and potentially stabilizing hiring and working hours over 1-2 quarters [6][7]. - The inflation trajectory is anticipated to stabilize rather than escalate, with limited demand-side stimulus from the rate cuts, allowing for a controlled approach to managing inflation expectations [7][8]. Group 3: Effects on Developing Countries' Macroeconomic Fundamentals - The Fed's shift to a rate-cutting cycle is likely to influence global financial conditions, leading to capital flows towards emerging markets and a weaker dollar, which can alleviate debt burdens for developing countries [8][9]. - For China, the Fed's rate cut provides external support for monetary policy, suggesting a cautious approach to avoid exacerbating asset volatility while leveraging external conditions for internal economic stability [9][10].

Core Insights - Employment is a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" period being both a time of rapid employment development and significant challenges in employment stability [1] - The government emphasizes a priority on employment, integrating it into macroeconomic policies and ensuring a comprehensive support system for job creation [1][2] Group 1: Employment Policies - The government has established a systematic policy framework for employment, including fiscal incentives, tax reductions, and financial support [1] - The average annual balance of entrepreneurial guarantee loans during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to be 300 billion, with annual employment subsidy expenditures exceeding 100 billion [1] Group 2: Targeted Support for Key Groups - The number of college graduates is expected to exceed 10 million annually starting from 2022, highlighting the importance of this demographic in employment strategies [2] - The government is focusing on dual strategies for nearly 300 million migrant workers, enhancing both outbound and local employment opportunities [2] - The scale of employment for the population lifted out of poverty remains above 30 million, contributing positively to the consolidation of poverty alleviation efforts [2] Group 3: Future Employment Goals - The government aims to achieve high-quality and sufficient employment by enhancing planning, improving employment policies, and strengthening service training [2]

Economic Overview - The "924" policy has shown resilience in the Chinese economy amidst complex domestic and international environments, with macroeconomic policies stabilizing growth and prices[4] - The need to reassess the 5.0% growth target based on economic momentum and to prioritize employment in policy adjustments is emphasized[5] Consumption and Retail - Social retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year as of August 2025, a 1.2 percentage point increase from August 2024, aligning with the 5.0% economic growth target[6] - Specific retail categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with increases of 28.4% and 22.3% respectively compared to the previous year[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, a decline of 2.9 percentage points from August 2024, primarily due to a 12.9% drop in real estate investment[9] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments also saw declines of 2.5 and 4 percentage points respectively, indicating limited effectiveness of investment policies[9] Trade Performance - Total goods import and export volume increased by 2.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, with exports rising by 5.9%, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous year[10] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of total exports, showcasing resilience in external trade[10] Capital Market Stability - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 39% year-on-year to 3821.83 points as of September 23, 2025, while the ChiNext Index surged by 103%[12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 1.877%, reflecting a stable capital market environment[12] Employment and Structural Challenges - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.18% from January to August 2025, a slight increase from the previous year, indicating challenges in job creation[17] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 rose to 16.43%, highlighting the need for targeted employment strategies[17] Policy Recommendations - Future policies should shift focus from "scale stimulus" to "employment priority" to achieve high-quality economic development[22] - Fiscal policies must prioritize job creation, with proposals for special funds to support new employment initiatives and tax incentives for businesses hiring new employees[27][28]

Group 1 - The central government has implemented a series of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies aimed at stabilizing employment, which has shown foundational and critical effects in promoting job stability [2][3] - In the first half of the year, 6.95 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 58% of the annual target, supported by measures such as increased unemployment insurance and social insurance subsidies [4][5] - The State Council has issued a notice with 19 policy measures to further enhance employment support, focusing on increasing unemployment insurance returns, deferring social insurance payments, and strengthening skills training [4][5] Group 2 - Local governments have accelerated the implementation of employment stabilization measures, with specific plans in cities like Beijing and Guizhou to create new job opportunities in emerging sectors [6] - Experts predict that the employment situation is likely to improve further due to ongoing economic recovery and the release of policy effectiveness, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors [6] - There is a call for increased investment in education and training to address structural employment issues and support high-quality employment in the future [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].