导读 9月17日美联储已小幅下调政策利率25个基点，结束自2022年开启的连续高利率区间。在通胀率仍高于 目标的背景下，美联储却更加强调就业市场的风险，并已释放出可能降息的信号。这种"就业优先"的取 向引发广泛关注：美联储为何在当前阶段比起通胀更重视就业目标？其可能降息的动机和政策逻辑是什 么？降息将如何影响美国的通胀和就业前景？又会对发展中国家宏观经济产生怎样的溢出效应？本文将 综合海外主流媒体的近期报道和观点系统梳理这一系列问题。 （一）风险权衡的变化 鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔与9月新闻发布会多次强调，通胀从高位回落，更多呈现供给性与一次性因素的残 余作用[1]；就业端的边际走弱更直接、更具尾部风险[2]。会议纪要显示，部分与会者认为没有必要等 到关税影响完全明晰才行动；同时，多数成员仍承认通胀上行风险尚存。这一分歧指向一个共同结论： 在通胀预期未明显失锚的前提下，以温和降息对冲就业恶化的代价更低[3]。 01 （二）通胀结构的再评估 降息动机与政策逻辑：从约束条件到操作框架 据金融时报报道，商品端价格受关税与库存轮换影响的传导存在时滞，但总体到消费端的影响温和 [4]；服务端通胀边际趋缓，尚未形成工资—价格的 ...

Core Insights - Employment is a fundamental aspect of people's livelihoods, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" period being both a time of rapid employment development and significant challenges in employment stability [1] - The government emphasizes a priority on employment, integrating it into macroeconomic policies and ensuring a comprehensive support system for job creation [1][2] Group 1: Employment Policies - The government has established a systematic policy framework for employment, including fiscal incentives, tax reductions, and financial support [1] - The average annual balance of entrepreneurial guarantee loans during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period is projected to be 300 billion, with annual employment subsidy expenditures exceeding 100 billion [1] Group 2: Targeted Support for Key Groups - The number of college graduates is expected to exceed 10 million annually starting from 2022, highlighting the importance of this demographic in employment strategies [2] - The government is focusing on dual strategies for nearly 300 million migrant workers, enhancing both outbound and local employment opportunities [2] - The scale of employment for the population lifted out of poverty remains above 30 million, contributing positively to the consolidation of poverty alleviation efforts [2] Group 3: Future Employment Goals - The government aims to achieve high-quality and sufficient employment by enhancing planning, improving employment policies, and strengthening service training [2]

Economic Overview - The "924" policy has shown resilience in the Chinese economy amidst complex domestic and international environments, with macroeconomic policies stabilizing growth and prices[4] - The need to reassess the 5.0% growth target based on economic momentum and to prioritize employment in policy adjustments is emphasized[5] Consumption and Retail - Social retail sales grew by 4.6% year-on-year as of August 2025, a 1.2 percentage point increase from August 2024, aligning with the 5.0% economic growth target[6] - Specific retail categories such as home appliances and communication equipment saw significant growth, with increases of 28.4% and 22.3% respectively compared to the previous year[6] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, a decline of 2.9 percentage points from August 2024, primarily due to a 12.9% drop in real estate investment[9] - Infrastructure and manufacturing investments also saw declines of 2.5 and 4 percentage points respectively, indicating limited effectiveness of investment policies[9] Trade Performance - Total goods import and export volume increased by 2.5% year-on-year as of August 2025, with exports rising by 5.9%, a 1.2 percentage point increase from the previous year[10] - Exports of electromechanical products grew by 9.2%, accounting for 60.2% of total exports, showcasing resilience in external trade[10] Capital Market Stability - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 39% year-on-year to 3821.83 points as of September 23, 2025, while the ChiNext Index surged by 103%[12] - The ten-year government bond yield decreased by 0.16 percentage points to 1.877%, reflecting a stable capital market environment[12] Employment and Structural Challenges - The urban unemployment rate averaged 5.18% from January to August 2025, a slight increase from the previous year, indicating challenges in job creation[17] - The youth unemployment rate for ages 16 to 24 rose to 16.43%, highlighting the need for targeted employment strategies[17] Policy Recommendations - Future policies should shift focus from "scale stimulus" to "employment priority" to achieve high-quality economic development[22] - Fiscal policies must prioritize job creation, with proposals for special funds to support new employment initiatives and tax incentives for businesses hiring new employees[27][28]

Group 1 - The central government has implemented a series of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies aimed at stabilizing employment, which has shown foundational and critical effects in promoting job stability [2][3] - In the first half of the year, 6.95 million new urban jobs were created, achieving 58% of the annual target, supported by measures such as increased unemployment insurance and social insurance subsidies [4][5] - The State Council has issued a notice with 19 policy measures to further enhance employment support, focusing on increasing unemployment insurance returns, deferring social insurance payments, and strengthening skills training [4][5] Group 2 - Local governments have accelerated the implementation of employment stabilization measures, with specific plans in cities like Beijing and Guizhou to create new job opportunities in emerging sectors [6] - Experts predict that the employment situation is likely to improve further due to ongoing economic recovery and the release of policy effectiveness, particularly in the service and manufacturing sectors [6] - There is a call for increased investment in education and training to address structural employment issues and support high-quality employment in the future [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the continuation of a stable yet progressive macroeconomic policy, focusing on maintaining policy stability while enhancing flexibility and timely adjustments to stimulate economic recovery [1][3]. Fiscal Policy - The fiscal policy aims for detailed implementation, emphasizing structural optimization, with a focus on enhancing social welfare and targeted spending for specific groups [4]. - The government plans to accelerate the issuance of long-term special bonds, with net financing reaching 7.66 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025 [4]. Monetary Policy - A moderately loose monetary policy is anticipated, with potential interest rate cuts to lower overall financing costs for society [5]. - The central bank has already implemented a 10 basis point interest rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio reduction, with further easing expected [5]. Industry Policy - The industry policy focuses on fostering technological innovation and promoting healthy competition, with an emphasis on emerging industries and strategic sectors [6][8]. - Key areas for support include quantum computing, artificial intelligence, and biotechnology, with a push for collaboration between research institutions and enterprises [6]. Real Estate Policy - The real estate policy highlights the importance of high-quality urban renewal and managing local government debt risks, with a focus on stabilizing the housing market [9]. - Recent data shows a decline in property sales, with June's sales area and revenue down by 5.5% and 10.8% year-on-year, respectively [9]. Domestic Demand Expansion - The strategy for expanding domestic demand involves enhancing both consumption scenarios and consumer capacity, with potential policies to optimize social security contributions and tax structures [11][12]. - Recent retail sales data indicates a 4.8% year-on-year growth, but a decline in consumer confidence remains a concern [11]. Employment and Social Welfare - The employment policy prioritizes job creation for key demographics, including recent graduates and migrant workers, while ensuring social safety nets are in place [13]. - The approach combines development with safety nets to stabilize society and rebuild consumer confidence [13]. Capital Market - The capital market is encouraged to enhance its attractiveness and inclusivity, with recent positive performance in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks [14]. - The government has introduced various supportive measures to stabilize and invigorate the capital market, including optimizing monetary policy tools [14]. High-Level Opening Up - The policy aims to maintain a stable foundation for foreign trade and investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and promote integrated development of domestic and foreign trade [15]. - The focus is on enhancing the resilience of enterprises and the support capabilities of open platforms in a complex external environment [15].

Employment Stability and Economic Growth - Employment is viewed as a "barometer" of economic development and a "ballast" for social stability, with the national urban survey unemployment rate averaging 5.2% in the first half of the year, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the first quarter, indicating overall stability in employment [1] - China's GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year, supporting improvements in employment, with unemployment rates dropping to 5.1% and 5% in April and May respectively, and remaining stable at 5% in June [3] Industry-Specific Employment Trends - The optical products company in Jingzhou, Hubei, has added around 500 employees this year, marking its largest recruitment year, driven by strong demand for prism products in the consumer electronics sector [2] - In the second quarter, recruitment in industries such as humanoid robots, new materials, and smart hardware saw year-on-year increases of 398.1%, 72.1%, and 50.3% respectively, indicating a significant rise in demand for talent in emerging industries [3] Support for Employment Initiatives - Various local governments are implementing employment-first policies and enhancing employment promotion mechanisms to support job stability and growth, with companies benefiting from social security and job subsidies totaling 648,000 yuan [3] - The government has introduced a series of policies to support employment, including expanding the scope of special loans for job stabilization and increasing the unemployment insurance return ratio for relevant enterprises [9] Focus on Graduate Employment - The number of college graduates in 2025 is expected to reach a record high of 12.22 million, prompting local governments to prioritize graduate employment through various initiatives [5] - Educational institutions are actively organizing online recruitment events and implementing training programs to enhance graduates' employability, with a focus on aligning skills with industry needs [6][11] Skills Training and Development - A significant push for skills training is underway, with plans to subsidize vocational skills training for over 10 million people annually in key sectors such as advanced manufacturing and modern services [11] - Companies are increasingly recognizing the importance of providing job opportunities for disadvantaged groups as part of their social responsibility, supported by government incentives [4]

Group 1 - Guangzhou has prioritized employment stability and development in 2023, implementing policies like Employment 4.0 and the "Million Talents Gather in South Guangdong" initiative to enhance job opportunities [1] - From January to April 2023, the city added 99,300 urban jobs, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, ranking first in the province [1] - The "Million Talents Gather in South Guangdong" initiative has led to significant recruitment events, such as the spring recruitment in Beijing, which featured 1,650 companies offering 60,000 positions, attracting thousands of graduates from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region [1] Group 2 - Guangzhou's employment services have organized 728 recruitment events from January to April 2023, providing 699,300 job positions, with a target of 1,100 events for the entire year [1] - The "Sunshine Employment" recruitment fair has been launched to support youth employment, with 285 events held in the first four months of 2023, offering 391,700 job positions [2] - The city plans to conduct at least 1,000 recruitment activities for college graduates in collaboration with educational institutions throughout the year [2]