普通投资者："我看不懂呀"、"不敢买"。 分析黄金的确是个技术活，因为在市场这个大舞台里，它扮演着三个角色： 商品、 货币 、投资 。 以下文章来源于画不多说 ，作者懂私募的灵魂画手 画不多说 . 话不多说，画多说。用最通俗易懂的方式，讲述私募的故事。 如果要给今年各资产的表现颁个奖， 黄金无疑是"最强王者" 。 从年初不到2800，狂飙到现在的4300+，年内涨幅达50%以上！ 作为 实物 商品 时 ，黄金价格的基础逻辑是 「 供给与需求 」 。 当全球央行（央妈）持续购金，或首饰消费旺盛，需求大于供给，便会推动金价上涨。 因此美元越弱，黄金越贵。 作为 投资品 时 ，黄金会和其他大 投资品类 的收益 「 作比较 」 。 钱可以放在很多地方，如果我们把钱换成黄金，就不能再放银行拿利息，或者买国债了。 所以，作为一个投资品类的时候，黄金能带来的收益，会不断和其他资产的潜在收益作比对，也 叫持有黄金的 "机会成本"。 作为 货币 时 ，黄金 价格 通常与美元 指数 走势 「 反着来 」 。 这是因为，黄金是用美元来标价和交易的。 同样是买一盎司黄金，当美元贬值时，买同样的黄金就需要更多的美元，即金价上涨。 当其 ...

Group 1 - The marketing major in Hubei's higher education entrance examination requires students to possess good marketing thinking and a cutting-edge knowledge background in marketing, familiar with consumer demand-centered marketing activities and project-based marketing planning [1] Group 2 - The stages of new product development include: 1. Product idea generation 2. Screening to decide whether to continue using the idea 3. Business analysis involving potential sales and product costs 4. Development of the idea into a product 5. Market testing to reduce costs and risks 6. Launching the product [3][10] Group 3 - The product lifecycle consists of four stages: 1. Introduction: Low sales and profits, costs may exceed revenue 2. Growth: Rapid sales growth and increasing profits due to economies of scale 3. Maturity: Sales stabilize, competition increases, and weaker firms may exit 4. Decline: Sales decrease due to changing consumer preferences or new technologies [3] Group 4 - Supply and demand market changes indicate that: 1. Higher price levels lead to lower demand and vice versa 2. Higher price levels result in increased supply and vice versa 3. Equilibrium occurs when the quantity demanded equals the quantity supplied at a specific price [4] Group 5 - Methods to correct market failures include: 1. Regulation, which can be difficult to implement 2. Subsidies, which may not effectively encourage consumption 3. Legislation, which may not adequately inform consumers about harmful products 4. Taxation, which has limited effects due to inelastic demand for harmful goods [5] Group 6 - Government intervention methods include: 1. Macroeconomic policy tools aimed at influencing the overall economy, such as interest rate changes and government spending 2. Microeconomic policies that specifically target individual markets [6] Group 7 - Factors affecting demand changes include: 1. Income, prices of substitutes, seasonality, and climate 2. Customer expectations, prices of complementary goods, and advertising 3. Customer preferences and government policies [7] Group 8 - Production factors, which are resources available for use, include land, labor, capital, and entrepreneurship [8] Group 9 - Sources of market research information include: 1. Internal sources, which are information owned by the company 2. Primary external sources, which are information collected from the public 3. Secondary external sources, which are information derived from existing materials [9]

Inflation and Pricing - Inflation expectations are rising due to "anti-involution" policies, but price performance is expected to remain weak, with July PPI and CPI forecasted at -3.1% and 0% respectively[1] - The core CPI is likely to be suppressed by lower downstream PPI and falling agricultural prices, with July CPI expected to remain around 0% year-on-year[2] Supply and Production - Supply has not significantly contracted; industrial production remains resilient, with July industrial added value expected to be around 6.4% year-on-year[3] - The PMI production index fell 0.5 percentage points to 50.5%, indicating continued expansion, while the new orders index dropped to 49.4%, signaling a contraction in demand[4] Demand and Economic Growth - Demand structure is diverging, with weak goods demand but strong service demand, leading to a slight decline in July's actual GDP growth to 4.9% year-on-year[5] - Exports are expected to rise to approximately 6.8% in July, driven by low base effects and previous "export grabbing" activities, but risks of decline loom in September[6] Investment Trends - Investment performance is mixed; real estate and manufacturing investments may decline, while infrastructure and service sector investments are expected to improve due to accelerated special bond issuance[7] - The overall economic logic in July revolves around price increases, but supply-side production is increasing while demand remains weak, limiting the sustainability of price rises[8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon futures and spot prices have resonated and rebounded, but considering the cooling of sentiment and hedging pressure, the market may adjust, and long - position sentiment may fluctuate. The polysilicon market has also been rising since late June, with significant price fluctuations and emotional instability, so operations in both markets require caution [1] Summary by Category Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon不通氧553 (East China) rose 1.56% to 9,750 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) average price rose 0.99% to 10,250 yuan/ton. The futures main - contract closing price fell 0.70% to 9,285 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: As silicon prices rise, some previously overhauled silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. In the southwest, power costs have decreased during the wet season, and enterprise operations are steadily increasing. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and supply will increase steadily [1] - **Demand**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, bringing some demand growth. An organic silicon plant has stopped production for rectification due to an accident, and organic silicon prices are rising. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and downstream low - level inventory - building willingness is insufficient [1] - **Investment Strategy**: After the previous macro - driven rally, the industrial silicon market may adjust, but long - position sentiment may fluctuate. Continued attention should be paid to silicon enterprise resumption dynamics [1] Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The prices of N - type dense material, N - type re - feed material, N - type mixed material, and N - type granular silicon remained unchanged. The futures main - contract closing price rose 7.68% to 54,705 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: Polysilicon enterprises continue to cut production, but some new production capacity may be put into operation. After offsetting, production is expected to increase slightly, with July production approaching 110,000 tons [1] - **Demand**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Although downstream silicon wafer prices have risen recently, the terminal market remains weak due to over - drawn demand in the first half of the year [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Since late June, the polysilicon market has been rising, and the market is volatile. Continued attention should be paid to macro - sentiment evolution and warehouse receipt registration [1] Other Information - From August 1, 2025, trading limits for some contracts of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted. For non - futures company members or customers, the daily opening volume limits for certain contracts are set, with exceptions for hedging and market - making transactions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic demand is a crucial driver for GDP growth, contributing 68.8% to the growth, with final consumption expenditure accounting for 52% [1] Group 1: Domestic Demand and Economic Growth - Domestic demand has been emphasized as a key factor for economic stability and growth, with the government implementing various policies to boost consumption [1][2] - The contribution of domestic demand to economic growth is seen as a unique advantage for large economies, promoting a unified market and resilient industrial systems [1][3] Group 2: Employment and Income - Employment is fundamental to livelihood, and increasing income is essential for boosting consumption; higher income leads to greater consumption capacity [2] - Addressing employment and income issues is prioritized to enhance consumer confidence and spending [2] Group 3: Investment and Supply - Investment is viewed as both current demand and future supply; effective investment is necessary to meet diverse consumer needs and create a dynamic balance between supply and demand [2] - The government plans to utilize 5 trillion yuan in investment to focus on urban renewal, public services, and new industries [2] Group 4: Market Competition and Structure - The realization of a domestic circulation requires a fair, open, and efficient national market, with a need to regulate investment behaviors and encourage competitive development [3] - There is significant room for improvement in China's final consumption rate compared to developed countries, indicating potential for expanding domestic demand [3]