Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The two discount interest policies are an innovative exploration of fiscal and financial collaboration to boost consumption, aiming to support people's consumption needs and form a policy combination with existing subsidies [2] - The Fed may have the possibility to cut interest rates by 50 basis points, and the current interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - The Ministry of Finance will continue to summarize experience and improve processes for the two discount interest policies, which can work with existing consumer subsidies [2] - By the end of July, M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year; M1 balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year; M0 balance was 13.28 trillion yuan, up 11.8% year - on - year. Net cash injection in the first seven months was 465.1 billion yuan [2] - China included two EU banks in the counter - measure list and prohibited domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them [2] - In the first seven months, RMB loans increased by 12.87 trillion yuan. Household loans increased by 68.07 billion yuan, with short - term loans decreasing by 38.3 billion yuan and medium - and long - term loans increasing by 1.06 trillion yuan [2] - The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates, and there is a possibility of a 50 - basis - point cut [3] Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include coking coal, rapeseed meal, coke, soda ash, and caustic soda [4] Night - session Performance - The night - session performance shows different sector changes, with precious metals up 26.41%, non - ferrous metals up 21.22%, coal - coking - steel - ore up 15.30%, etc [4] Sector Positions - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes have various performance indicators. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.48%, a monthly increase of 3.09%, and an annual increase of 9.90%; WTI crude oil had a daily decrease of 0.71%, a monthly decrease of 9.39%, and an annual decrease of 12.79% [6] Trends of Major Commodities - Charts display the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future direction of China's monetary policy, emphasizing the need for continued moderate easing to support economic recovery and growth [2][12]. Financial Statistics - In the first half of 2025, the total social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, which is 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2]. - The increase in RMB loans to the real economy was 12.74 trillion yuan, up by 279.6 billion yuan year-on-year [2]. - By the end of June, the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.3%, while the narrow money supply (M1) increased by 4.6% [2][10]. Loan and Financing Costs - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was approximately 3.3%, down by about 45 basis points year-on-year, while the rate for personal housing loans was around 3.1%, down by 60 basis points [3]. - The financing structure has improved, with significant growth in loans for small and micro enterprises, as well as for the manufacturing and technology sectors [3]. Government Bond Financing - In June, the net financing of government bonds was approximately 1.35 trillion yuan, which is an increase of about 5 billion yuan year-on-year, playing a significant role in driving social financing growth [5][9]. - By the end of June, government bonds accounted for 20.6% of the total social financing stock, an increase of 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [7]. Future Monetary Policy Direction - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) plans to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on enhancing financial services for the real economy, particularly in technology innovation and consumption expansion [12][13]. - There is an expectation for further structural monetary policy tools to support key sectors and alleviate local debt risks, while maintaining a balance between financial support for the economy and the health of the financial system [12][14]. Economic Indicators and Consumer Demand - The article notes that consumer demand is expected to recover, supported by policies aimed at boosting consumption, such as subsidies for appliances and vehicles [8][19]. - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a year-on-year increase of 0.1%, indicating a shift from decline to growth, while the core CPI continued to rise [19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that under proactive fiscal policies, the growth rate of social financing continues to rise, with significant increases in both monetary supply and loan issuance [1][2] Group 2 - As of the end of May, the broad money supply (M2) reached 325.78 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.9%, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 108.91 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, which is an improvement of 0.8 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month [1] - In the first five months, the total increase in RMB loans was 10.68 trillion yuan, with household loans increasing by 572.4 billion yuan and corporate loans rising by 9.8 trillion yuan [1] - The total increase in RMB deposits during the first five months was 14.73 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 8.3 trillion yuan [1] Group 3 - By the end of May, the total social financing scale was 426.16 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [2] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 262.86 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7% [2] - The net financing of government bonds reached 6.31 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.81 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [2]