Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 181 to close at 4,087 ringgit/ton, a 4.63% increase; the palm oil 05 contract rose 276 to close at 8,568 yuan/ton, a 3.33% increase; the soybean oil 05 contract rose 124 to close at 7,836 yuan/ton, a 1.61% increase; the rapeseed oil 05 contract rose 302 to close at 9,046 yuan/ton, a 3.45% increase; the CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 0.84 to close at 49.2 cents/pound, a 1.74% increase; and the ICE canola active contract rose 17.9 to close at 612.4 Canadian dollars/ton, a 3.01% increase [4][7]. - As the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil improves marginally, the palm oil futures price continues to rebound. High - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil has changed from increasing to decreasing, and the export demand has improved significantly. With the expected support of stocking demand before holidays, the pessimistic sentiment of a large - scale inventory build - up at the end of December has eased, and the sentiment in the commodity market has warmed up. The news about Indonesian biodiesel is within expectations, with limited short - term actual impact. Attention should be paid to the implementation rhythm next year. Rapeseed oil has rebounded from an oversold level, approaching the upper pressure range. The domestic rapeseed oil inventory continues to decline. After the arrival of Australian canola, the pressing process is expected to start. In addition, the global supply is in a loose pattern, which suppresses the upside space [4][8]. - Macroscopically, attention should be paid to the announcement of the Fed Chairman candidate. Last week, the US dollar index fluctuated and closed down, and the oil price continued to fluctuate at a low level. Fundamentally, the supply - demand of Malaysian palm oil has improved marginally, with production decreasing and export demand improving significantly, leading to the continuous rebound of palm oil last week. In addition, there is expected support for stocking demand during holidays such as the Spring Festival, which may relieve the inventory pressure at the origin. The Indonesian government has reiterated the biodiesel policy, which is expected to be implemented in the second half of next year. Attention should be paid to the progress of the policy. It is expected that palm oil will fluctuate in the short term [4][10]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various contracts on December 26 and December 19, including CBOT soybean oil main contract, BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract, DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, CZCE rapeseed oil, as well as the spot prices of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions [5]. Market Analysis and Outlook - The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased. From December 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area decreased by 8.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.12% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 9.12% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that the palm oil production from December 1 - 20 decreased by 7.44% [8]. - The export of Malaysian palm oil has increased. According to different shipping survey agencies, the export volume from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% - 41.25% compared with the same period last month [8][9]. - Indonesia plans to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The 2026 biodiesel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, basically the same as in 2025. The government is currently testing the B50 standard, and the test cycle may last up to eight months [9]. - As of December 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major oils in key regions across the country was 2.1265 million tons, an increase of 0.0079 million tons from the previous week and 0.2164 million tons from the same period last year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.1235 million tons, a decrease of 0.0139 million tons from the previous week; the palm oil inventory was 0.7 million tons, an increase of 0.0473 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 0.303 million tons, a decrease of 0.0255 million tons from the previous week [10]. Industry News - The Malaysian Palm Oil Association (MPOC) expects that in 2026, the country's palm oil export volume will increase to 16.2 million tons, and the production will moderately increase to 19.7 million tons. The supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, and the inventory will gradually return to normal. In November, due to weak demand in sub - Saharan Africa and the EU, the production and export volume decreased, and the inventory reached a high level since March 2019 [11]. - The Indonesian Meteorological Agency predicts that the rainy season will return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken and end by the end of the first quarter, which can optimize the harvest efficiency and logistics of palm plantations [12][13]. - The Indonesian government may fine palm oil enterprises and miners operating illegally in forest areas 8.5 billion US dollars in 2026, which may disrupt production and bring upward pressure on global prices [13]. Relevant Charts - The report provides various charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, export, and inventory data of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory data of domestic three major oils [15][28][40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically [1][2][4][6][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodities are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4016.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.07% and an overnight increase of 0.73%. The latest prices and percentage changes of several currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.29, down 0.42% [1] Spot Market Conditions - On December 23, 2025, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE soybean oil 2605, and DCE soybean meal 2605 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8570, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the weather in most soybean - growing areas is generally favorable for crop growth, but the significant reduction in precipitation in the eastern parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais states may be a concern. In Argentina, most areas have suitable soil moisture for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4] International Supply - Demand - Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 billion liters, similar to 2025. The country plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The USDA export sales report shows that as of December 11, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil exports have different net increases and shipment situations. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop production is estimated at 178.3 million tons, and Argentina's November soybean crushing and inventory data are also provided. The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to a five - month low [6][7][9][10] Domestic Market Transactions and Inventory - On December 23, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 77% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national major oil mills'开机 rate increased to 58.35%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons from December 16 to December 23 [11] Macro - economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 13.3%, and there are various US economic data such as GDP, consumer confidence index, and API crude oil inventory [13] Domestic News - On December 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 49 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [15] Market Capital Flow - On December 23, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.651 billion yuan, with different capital flow situations in commodity futures, stock index futures, and bond futures [17] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside potential [1]. - For soybean oil, the driving force from US soybeans is not significant, and range - bound trading is the main strategy [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, night - session closing price is 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change; trading volume is 441,419 lots with an increase of 9,962 lots, open interest is 456,514 lots with an increase of 3,972 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, night - session closing price is 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; trading volume is 204,327 lots with a decrease of 34,459 lots, open interest is 656,874 lots with a decrease of 1,716 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,847 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, night - session closing price is 8,801 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change; trading volume is 233,197 lots with a decrease of 48,158 lots, open interest is 204,202 lots with an increase of 4,135 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,036 ringgit/ton with a 1.23% increase, night - session closing price is 4,010 ringgit/ton with a - 0.64% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 48.77 cents/pound with a - 0.63% change [1]. - **Spot Data** - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,370 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,530 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,015 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data** - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is - 116 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 558 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 683 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread is 361 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread is - 714 yuan/ton; palm oil 1 - 5 spread is - 26 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread is 222 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread is 204 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's biodiesel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. The country has implemented the B40 policy and plans to increase the blending ratio to B50 in 2026, and is currently testing the B50 standard [2][3]. - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken by the end of the first quarter, which may optimize palm oil harvest efficiency [3]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop output is estimated to be 178.3 million tons, with a planting area of 49.1 million hectares and a yield of 3.63 tons per hectare [4]. - Argentina's November soybean crushing volume was 3,493,523 tons, with soybean oil output of 687,188 tons and soybean meal output of 2,559,305 tons. As of December 1, 2025, soybean inventory was 2,148,146 tons, soybean oil inventory was 282,301 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 704,678 tons [4]. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [5]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products of Guotai Junan Futures on December 24, 2025, covering multiple agricultural product futures including palm oil, soybean oil, etc. [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound with limited upside [2] - Soybean oil: Driven little by US soybeans, mainly operate within a range [2] - Soybean meal: Overnight US soybeans slightly declined, Dalian soybean meal may fluctuate [2] - Soybean: Spot prices are stable, and the futures market fluctuates [2] - Corn: Focus on spot prices [2] - Cotton: Futures prices fluctuate strongly, pay attention to the overall market sentiment [2] - Eggs: Fluctuate and adjust [2] - Pigs: Secondary fattening is relatively active [2] - Peanuts: Focus on oil mills' purchases [2] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's day - session closing price was 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change. Soybean oil's day - session closing price was 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, and night - session closing price was 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% decrease. [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. It plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) from next year. The rainy season in Indonesia is expected to return to normal in 2026. [5][6] Soybean Meal and Soybean - **Fundamental Data**: DCE soybean meal 2605's day - session closing price was 2,745 yuan/ton with a + 0.18% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,756 yuan/ton with a + 0.51% increase. DCE soybean 2605's day - session closing price was 4,104 yuan/ton with a - 0.32% decrease, and night - session closing price was 4,118 yuan/ton with a + 0.34% increase. [9] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 23, CBOT soybean futures closed mixed. As of December 11, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 2,396,198 tons, a 68.3% increase from the same period last year. The estimated output of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 177 million tons. [9][11] Corn - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of C2603 was 2,189 yuan/ton with a - 0.41% change, and C2601's day - session closing price was 2,210 yuan/ton with a - 0.54% decrease, and night - session closing price was 2,213 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase. [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk shipping port price decreased by 10 yuan/ton in some areas, and the Guangdong Shekou price also decreased by 10 yuan/ton. [14] Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2605's day - session closing price was 14,140 yuan/ton with a 0.50% increase, and night - session closing price was 14,135 yuan/ton with a - 0.04% decrease. CY2603's day - session closing price was 20,185 yuan/ton with a 0.37% increase, and night - session closing price was 20,210 yuan/ton with a 0.12% increase. [16] - **Macro and Industry News**: The domestic cotton spot market was actively traded, and the price of pure cotton yarn was stable with an upward trend. ICE cotton futures rose slightly due to the weakening US dollar. [17][18] Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of egg 2601 was 3,027 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 1.01% decrease, and egg 2602 was 2,876 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.72% decrease. [23] - **No macro and industry news provided** Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: The Henan spot price was 11,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price was 11,800 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price was 11,960 yuan/ton. [27] - **Market Information**: Some companies registered warehouse receipts, and the Ministry of Commerce determined that imported pork and by - products from the EU were dumped. [28][29] Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of PK601 was 8,068 yuan/ton with a 0.47% increase, and PK603 was 7,950 yuan/ton with a - 0.08% decrease. [32] - **Spot Market Focus**: The prices in Henan, Jilin, Liaoning, and Shandong were basically stable, with low supply and demand [33]

Key Points Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - China's procurement demand supports the US market, and the domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Attention should be paid to South American weather changes. Weather speculation would be bullish for the single - side and spot basis. Without obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from the expected Brazilian bumper harvest from December to January, which will drag down the domestic soybean meal pricing. The spread between 103 - 105 is expected to be in a positive spread, with the risk lying in the domestic reserve release situation [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content Supply - side Information - USDA's current forecast for US soybeans in the 2025/26 season is a yield of 53 bushels per acre and an ending stock of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). The US soybean yield may be further revised down due to less rainfall in the production areas from August to September. CONB predicts that the new Brazilian crop output in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons [7]. - As of November 22, the Brazilian soybean planting rate was 78% (last week: 60%, same period last year: 83.3%, five - year average: 75.8%). As of November 26, the Argentine soybean planting progress was 36% (last week: 24.6%, same period last year: 45%) [7][8]. - Short - term weather shows no obvious drought problem, but attention should be paid to the impact of the weak La Niña weather pattern on rainfall in southern Brazil and Argentina in December. From December to January, domestic soybeans and soybean meal are expected to seasonally destock. There is uncertainty in domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year, and attention should be paid to reserve release [8]. Demand - side Information - Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term, and capacity reduction is not obvious, which supports feed demand. However, the pig farming industry is currently in a loss, and national policies tend to control pig inventories and weights, which may affect long - term supply. Soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, with normal downstream transactions and good提货 performance recently [8]. Inventory - related Information - Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels in the same period. The soybean meal inventory is being destocked slowly, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate destocking from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8]. Price - related Information - On December 2, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 95 (down 6), in Tianjin was 55 (down 26), and in Rizhao was - 25 (down 36). The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 15 (down 6), in Dongguan was - 25 (down 6), in Zhanjiang was - 25 (down 6), and in Fangcheng was - 25 (down 16). The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 81 (up 76) [4]. - The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 622 (up 6) [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Affected by the news that China banned a Brazilian soybean ship from entering the country and suspended some Brazilian exporters from exporting soybeans, the near - month contract of soybean meal rose significantly today, and the monthly spread tends to be in a positive spread. The news is expected to have more impact on sentiment, with limited actual impact. The domestic market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend. Attention should be paid to weather changes in South America, and there is no obvious drought problem in the short - term weather [8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price and Spread Data - On November 27, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Zhangjiagang was 75, down 20; the basis of 43% soybean meal spot in Tianjin, Rizhao, and Zhangjiagang was 35, - 15, - 25 respectively, down 20, 20, 40 respectively; the basis of soybean meal spot in Dongguan, Zhanjiang, and Fangcheng was - 55, down 40; the basis of rapeseed meal spot in Guangdong was - 37, down 136; M1 - M5 was 217, up 28; M1 - RM1 and RM1 - 5 data were also provided; the spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 300, and the spread of the main contract was 586 [6][7]. 3.2 International and Inventory Data - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB was 7.0434, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium and import soybean gross profit data were provided. The inventory data of Chinese port soybeans, major domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal, and the number of days of feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory were also presented, showing that domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels [7]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: According to CONAB data, the predicted output of new Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 15, the sowing rate of Brazilian soybeans was 69.0%, and as of November 13, the planting rate of Argentine soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 15%. It is necessary to pay attention to the relatively dry weather in southern Brazil and northern Argentina in the next few weeks. The domestic soybean meal is expected to reduce inventory from November to December, but the supply in the fourth quarter is still expected to be loose. The progress of ship - buying for the December - January shipment is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain [7][8]. - **Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory in the short - term, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss, and national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect the long - term supply. The soybean meal has relatively high cost - effectiveness, and the far - month trading volume of the soybean meal downstream has increased recently, with good提货 performance [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - Short - term focus on China's purchase of US soybeans and South American weather, with expected support for the US market and a sideways movement for the domestic market. - Without significant weather issues, the market is expected to start trading the pressure of a bumper South American new crop from December to January, which may drag down the soybean meal futures pricing [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - **43% Soybean Meal Spot Basis**: On November 25th, the basis in Dalian was 77 (down 2), in Tianjin was 47 (down 2), in Dongguan and Zhanjiang was - 23 (down 2), and in Fangcheng was - 33 (down 2). The basis in Rizhao and Zhangjiagang was - 13 (down 2) [4]. - **Rapeseed Meal Spot Basis**: In Guangdong, the basis was up 19, and MJ - 5 was 193 (down 3) [4]. - **Spread Data**: The RM1 - 5 spread was 46 (down 15), the soybean meal - rapeseed meal spot spread in Guangdong was 300 (up 17), and the futures spread of the main contract was 539 (down 20) [5]. 3.2 Supply Situation - **South American Production Forecast**: According to CONB data, the forecasted production of Brazil's new crop in 25/26 is 177.6 million tons. As of November 15th, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 69.0% (last week: 68.4%, last year: 73.8%, five - year average: 67.2%). As of November 13th, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting rate was 16% (last week: 7%, last year: 25%) [7]. - **Domestic Supply**: The purchase progress for the December - January shipping period is slow, and the supply gap in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. The domestic soybean meal supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be relatively loose, with an expected inventory reduction from November to December [7][8]. 3.3 Demand Situation - **Livestock and Poultry Demand**: Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory in the short - term, supporting the demand for soybean meal. However, the current breeding profit is in the red, and national policies may affect future supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal is relatively high, with strong downstream far - month trading volume and good提货 performance [8]. 3.4 Inventory Situation - **Domestic Inventory**: Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, with an expected inventory reduction from November to December. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has dropped to a low level [8].