Group 1 - The Shanghai Gold Exchange emphasizes the need for risk control in the precious metals market due to significant price volatility and rising uncertainty [1] - The Ministry of Commerce reports on the progress of negotiations regarding electric vehicle exports to the EU, highlighting the need for price commitment guidelines for Chinese exporters [2] - Australia announces a strategic reserve plan for critical minerals, focusing on rare earth elements, antimony, and gallium to strengthen global supply chains [3] Group 2 - The cancellation of the export VAT rebate for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, is expected to increase export costs for solar companies, leading to a rush to ship products before the policy takes effect [4] - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has surged to 152,000 yuan per ton, reflecting market expectations and supply dynamics [2] - The LME copper inventory has dropped by 22%, reaching a six-month low, driven by traders moving copper to the U.S. amid anticipated tariffs [10] Group 3 - Rongbai Technology signs a procurement agreement with CATL for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials, with a total sales amount exceeding 120 billion yuan [11] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange plans to launch a 100-ounce silver futures contract, aiming to enhance market participation amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [8][9] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasizes the need for quality development in the futures market and the importance of maintaining market stability [30] Group 4 - The U.S. Department of Commerce announces potential 100% tariffs on South Korean semiconductor manufacturers if they do not increase investments in the U.S. [35] - Indonesia cancels its plan to increase the biodiesel blend to 50%, maintaining the current 40% palm oil and 60% diesel mix [21] - The USDA reports an increase in U.S. soybean stocks by 6% year-on-year, with total stocks reaching 3.29 billion bushels [14]

Group 1: Energy and Metals Crude Oil - Iran tensions ease, geopolitical risk premium declines, and short - term oil price increase is limited due to significant inventory pressure in Q1 2026 [1] Precious Metals - US economic data shows resilience, Fed officials oppose short - term rate cuts, and precious metals remain strong due to the tense Iran situation [2] Copper - Copper price adjusts overnight, with an increase in SHFE copper warehouse receipts. The strategy of selling call options at high levels is preferred [3] Aluminum - Shanghai aluminum continues to adjust. There is a short - term fundamental divergence, and caution is advised for speculation. Aluminum plants can consider selling hedging [4] Cast Aluminum Alloy - It fluctuates with Shanghai aluminum, with low market activity. The spread between it and Shanghai aluminum is weaker than in previous years [5] Alumina - Domestic alumina operating capacity remains around 95 million tons, in significant surplus. Sell on rallies when the spread is low [6] Zinc - LME's decision triggers a short - term bull market, but the supply - demand relationship remains unchanged. There is a need for volatility reduction, and opportunities to sell call options and short on rallies are recommended [7] Lead - The market is bullish, but the upside of Shanghai lead is constrained. It is expected to oscillate between 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [8] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel is strongly oscillating, and stainless - steel market is active. Short - term sentiment is high, and buying on dips is recommended [9] Tin - Shanghai tin declines with reduced positions. Observe its adjustment resilience, and continue to sell call options with high strike prices near expiration [10] Lithium Carbonate - The market is active, with a change in the sales strategy of upstream lithium salt plants. The futures price is strong but highly uncertain [11] Industrial Silicon - There are expectations for the technological transformation of 12,500kva furnaces. It is expected to oscillate mainly due to weak demand [12] Polysilicon - It oscillates around 48,000 yuan/ton. The trading logic has changed, and caution is advised [13] Group 2: Steel and Related Products Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Steel prices oscillate at night. Supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and the market will continue to oscillate in the short term [14] Iron Ore - The supply is seasonally decreasing, and demand is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short term. It will mainly oscillate with high - level volatility risks [15] Coke - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [16] Coking Coal - The price oscillates. Carbon supply is abundant, and the price is likely to oscillate strongly [17] Manganese Silicon - The price rebounds from the bottom. Manganese ore prices rise, and buying on dips is recommended [18] Silicon Iron - The price rebounds from the bottom. Affected by policies, demand is resilient, and buying on dips is recommended [19] Group 3: Shipping Container Freight Index (European Line) - Airlines are reducing prices to compete for cargo, and the 04 contract is driven by expectations. It will oscillate with spot sentiment [20] Group 4: Fuels and Chemicals Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil drops with crude oil due to eased Iran tensions. Geopolitical factors will continue to affect the market, and high - sulfur cracking spreads may remain strong [21] Asphalt - Asphalt follows crude oil with limited amplitude. Pay attention to Venezuelan crude oil arrivals [22] Urea - The spot price rises continuously, and the market is expected to oscillate strongly [23] Methanol - The geopolitical risk eases, and the market has intensified long - short competition [24] Pure Benzene - It follows the oil price decline. Supply is sufficient, and it will oscillate in the short term with large de - stocking resistance in the long term [25] Styrene - Supply - demand is in tight balance, and exports are good. Pay attention to the oil - price risk [26] Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene - Supply is tight, and downstream demand is good. However, pay attention to the oil - price risk [27] PVC and Caustic Soda - PVC weakens at night. It may go through capacity reduction in 2026. Caustic soda is weak with high inventory [28] PX and PTA - They decline with the oil price. PX can be allocated long after adjustment, and PTA's processing margin is moderately restored [29] Ethylene Glycol - Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. It is recommended to focus on波段行情 [30] Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - Short - fiber demand weakens, and bottle - chip price follows the raw - material decline with capacity pressure [31] Glass - It is weak. It is expected to have seasonal inventory accumulation, and buying on dips can be considered in the long term [32] 20 - Rubber, Natural Rubber, and Butadiene Rubber - Demand recovers, natural rubber supply decreases, and synthetic rubber supply increases. Adopt a wait - and - see strategy [33] Soda Ash - It is weak with high supply pressure. Adopt a strategy of shorting on rallies [34] Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean and Soybean Meal - The US may determine biofuel quotas in March. South American harvest is expected to be good. Observe the US biofuel policy and South American weather [35] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - They are expected to oscillate in a range. The upper and lower limits are affected by supply expansion and bio - diesel demand, respectively [36] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - The market is optimistic about the improvement of China - Canada rapeseed trade, and rapeseed prices are expected to be weak this week [37] Domestic Soybean - It stops falling and rebounds. The supply of high - quality soybeans is tight, and demand is cautious [38] Corn - Dalian corn futures oscillate at a high level, and the main driving factor is unclear. It will oscillate widely in the short term [39] Pig - The futures price oscillates. Pig prices may hit a low in H1 2027. Watch the supply - demand game before the Spring Festival [40] Egg - The egg futures price rises with reduced positions. Supply is expected to decrease and demand to increase in H1 2026, and long - near and short - far strategies are recommended [41] Cotton - US cotton falls slightly, and Zhengzhou cotton oscillates at a high level. It may continue to adjust, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [42] Sugar - International sugar production varies. Zhengzhou sugar rebounds, but the rebound may be limited due to a strong production increase expectation [43] Apple - The futures price is high. The market focuses on demand, and the de - stocking speed may be affected [44] Timber - The price is low. Low inventory provides some support, and a wait - and - see strategy is recommended [45] Pulp - The futures price falls. The short - term fundamentals are average, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended [46] Group 6: Financial Products Stock Index - A - shares oscillate with reduced volume. The "Spring Market" may continue, and pay attention to the shift of the upward driver [47] Treasury Bond - Treasury bond futures perform differently. The bond market may oscillate, and consider the opportunity to flatten the yield curve [48]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean and soybean meal export sales and shipment data in the week ending January 8 showed significant changes, with soybean export sales and shipments increasing compared to the previous week and four - week average, while soybean meal export shipments decreased [1]. - The U.S. December 2025 soybean crushing volume reached the second - highest in history, and the soybean oil inventory expanded to a 19 - month high [1]. - Different institutions have different forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with CONAB slightly lowering the forecast, while Agroconsult and RaboResearch predicting an increase [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel quota in early March, and there are considerations regarding the bio - based diesel quota [1]. - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff, and the palm oil export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 increased compared to the previous month [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Content U.S. Soybean and Soybean Meal Export Data - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean export sales net increased by 206.19 million tons, up 135% from the previous week and 54% from the four - week average, with an export shipment of 163.74 million tons, up 47% from the previous week and 71% from the four - week average. New sales were 213.39 million tons for the current market year and 1 million tons for the next market year. Sales to the Chinese mainland net increased by 122.41 million tons, and shipments to the Chinese mainland were 90.11 million tons [1]. - In the week ending January 8, U.S. current - market - year soybean meal export sales net increased by 34.06 million tons, up 115% from the previous week and 15% from the four - week average. Export shipments were 30.52 million tons, down 39% from the previous week and 18% from the four - week average. New sales were 35.92 million tons for the current market year and 0 tons for the next market year [1]. U.S. Soybean Crushing and Inventory Data - In December 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume was 224.991 million bushels, up 4.1% from November and 8.9% from December 2024, slightly lower than the record high in October. The total soybean crushing volume in 2025 was nearly 2.4 billion bushels [1]. - As of December 31, 2025, the U.S. soybean oil inventory increased to 1.642 billion pounds, up 8.5% from the end of November and 32.8% from December 2024 [1]. Brazil's Soybean Production Forecast - CONAB lowered the forecast of Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production to 176.12 million tons, slightly lower than the December forecast, with a slightly decreased yield per hectare and a slightly lower export volume forecast [1]. - Agroconsult predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production would reach a record 182.2 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons from the November estimate and 10.1 million tons from the previous year [1]. - RaboResearch predicted that Brazil's 2025 - 26 soybean planting area would increase by 2%, and if the current yield trend continued, the production could reach a new record of 177 million tons. The export volume was expected to remain at the 2025 record level of 111 million tons, and the crushing volume was expected to increase by 2 million tons to 60 million tons [1]. Biofuel Policy - The Trump administration is expected to finalize the 2026 biofuel blending quota in early March, keep the quota at a similar level to the current proposal, and is considering a bio - based diesel quota between 5.2 billion and 5.6 billion gallons, and may abandon the plan to penalize renewable fuel and its raw material imports [1]. Malaysia's Palm Oil Data - Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in February, reducing the export tariff to 9%. The reference price was 3,846.84 Malaysian ringgit per ton (equivalent to 950 US dollars) [1]. - AmSpec reported that Malaysia's palm oil product export volume from January 1 - 15, 2026 was 690,642 tons, up 17.5% from the same period last month, while ITS reported an export volume of 727,440 tons, up 18.6% from the same period last month [1]. Spot Prices - Spot prices of various products such as soybean meal in Jiangsu, rapeseed meal in Guangdong, soybean oil in Jiangsu, palm oil in Guangzhou, and rapeseed oil in Jiangsu from January 9 - 15, 2026 showed certain fluctuations [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive overview of the overnight and spot market conditions of various commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also analyzes important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major production areas, international supply - demand dynamics, and macro - economic news both internationally and domestically [1][2][4][6][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overnight Market Conditions - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various commodities are presented. For example, the closing price of BMD March palm oil is 4016.00, with a previous day's increase of 2.07% and an overnight increase of 0.73%. The latest prices and percentage changes of several currencies are also given, like the US dollar index at 98.29, down 0.42% [1] Spot Market Conditions - On December 23, 2025, the spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil 2605, DCE soybean oil 2605, and DCE soybean meal 2605 in different regions are provided. For instance, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2605 in North China is 8570, with a basis of 110 and no change from the previous day [2] Important Fundamental Information Production Area Weather - In Brazil, the weather in most soybean - growing areas is generally favorable for crop growth, but the significant reduction in precipitation in the eastern parts of São Paulo and Minas Gerais states may be a concern. In Argentina, most areas have suitable soil moisture for soybean growth, and upcoming fronts will bring precipitation [4] International Supply - Demand - Indonesia's 2026 biofuel quota is 15.646 billion liters, similar to 2025. The country plans to increase the palm oil blending ratio to 50% (B50) next year. The USDA export sales report shows that as of December 11, US soybean, soybean meal, and soybean oil exports have different net increases and shipment situations. Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop production is estimated at 178.3 million tons, and Argentina's November soybean crushing and inventory data are also provided. The Baltic Dry Index has dropped to a five - month low [6][7][9][10] Domestic Market Transactions and Inventory - On December 23, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil decreased by 77% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the national major oil mills'开机 rate increased to 58.35%. The national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 2.6 million tons from December 16 to December 23 [11] Macro - economic News International News - The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in January 2024 is 13.3%, and there are various US economic data such as GDP, consumer confidence index, and API crude oil inventory [13] Domestic News - On December 23, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate was adjusted down (yuan appreciation) by 49 points. The Chinese central bank conducted 59.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 76 billion yuan [15] Market Capital Flow - On December 23, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 9.651 billion yuan, with different capital flow situations in commodity futures, stock index futures, and bond futures [17] Arbitrage Tracking - Not provided in the content

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - Palm oil is expected to have a short - term rebound with limited upside potential [1]. - For soybean oil, the driving force from US soybeans is not significant, and range - bound trading is the main strategy [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data** - Palm oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,486 yuan/ton with a 0.86% increase, night - session closing price is 8,484 yuan/ton with a - 0.02% change; trading volume is 441,419 lots with an increase of 9,962 lots, open interest is 456,514 lots with an increase of 3,972 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Day - session closing price is 7,772 yuan/ton with no change, night - session closing price is 7,754 yuan/ton with a - 0.23% change; trading volume is 204,327 lots with a decrease of 34,459 lots, open interest is 656,874 lots with a decrease of 1,716 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Day - session closing price is 8,847 yuan/ton with a - 0.19% change, night - session closing price is 8,801 yuan/ton with a - 0.52% change; trading volume is 233,197 lots with a decrease of 48,158 lots, open interest is 204,202 lots with an increase of 4,135 lots [1]. - Malaysian palm oil主力: Closing price is 4,036 ringgit/ton with a 1.23% increase, night - session closing price is 4,010 ringgit/ton with a - 0.64% change [1]. - CBOT soybean oil主力: Closing price is 48.77 cents/pound with a - 0.63% change [1]. - **Spot Data** - 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,370 yuan/ton with a 100 - yuan increase [1]. - First - grade soybean oil in Guangdong: Spot price is 8,330 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil in Guangxi: Spot price is 9,530 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [1]. - Malaysian palm oil FOB price: 1,015 dollars/ton with a 10 - dollar increase [1]. - **Basis and Spread Data** - Palm oil basis in Guangdong is - 116 yuan/ton; soybean oil basis in Guangdong is 558 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil basis in Guangxi is 683 yuan/ton [1]. - Rapeseed - palm oil futures spread is 361 yuan/ton; soybean - palm oil futures spread is - 714 yuan/ton; palm oil 1 - 5 spread is - 26 yuan/ton; soybean oil 1 - 5 spread is 222 yuan/ton; rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread is 204 yuan/ton [1]. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia's biodiesel quota for 2026 is 15.646 million kiloliters, similar to 2025. The country has implemented the B40 policy and plans to increase the blending ratio to B50 in 2026, and is currently testing the B50 standard [2][3]. - Indonesia's rainy season is expected to return to normal in 2026, and the La Nina weather pattern is expected to weaken by the end of the first quarter, which may optimize palm oil harvest efficiency [3]. - Brazil's 2025/26 soybean crop output is estimated to be 178.3 million tons, with a planting area of 49.1 million hectares and a yield of 3.63 tons per hectare [4]. - Argentina's November soybean crushing volume was 3,493,523 tons, with soybean oil output of 687,188 tons and soybean meal output of 2,559,305 tons. As of December 1, 2025, soybean inventory was 2,148,146 tons, soybean oil inventory was 282,301 tons, and soybean meal inventory was 704,678 tons [4]. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0; soybean oil trend intensity is 0 [5]