金银铜价格纷纷在年内多次创下历史新高。数据显示，截至12月19日，申万有色金属指数年内涨幅已达82.23%，在全市场所有行业中领跑，甚至超越了 通信、电子等长期备受瞩目的科技赛道。（数据来源：Choice，时间截至2025/12/19） A股结构化机会下，资源与化工板块的表现格外抢眼。很多投资者可能会有一个问题，眼前的行情是短暂的周期性反弹，还是新一轮资源品超级周期的起 点？ 三重驱动力，重塑资源品定价逻辑 理解未来趋势，需洞察根本的驱动力量。当前，资源与化工行业正同时受到来自三个维度的冲击与重塑，这决定了其投资逻辑已从单纯的"周期波动"转向 更复杂的"价值重估"。 近期市场的结构性分化格外引人注目。一边是部分成长板块的震荡调整，另一边，以有色金属为代表的资源品却走出了独立的强势行情，成为当下市场一 抹亮眼的色彩。 首先，全球宏观流动性环境的确定性转向构成基础支撑。 美联储货币政策的风向，是影响全球资源品价格的变量之一。 今年9月以来美联储连续三次降息，虽然美联储进一步降息门槛提高，但美联储主席热门候选人之一的哈塞特依旧是力挺继续降息。 长期来看，美联储降息只是节奏问题，并不改方向。 由于大宗商品多以美元计价 ...

活动名称： 2025（第十届）起点锂电行业年会暨锂电金鼎奖颁奖典礼&起点研究十周年庆典 、2025起点用户侧储能及电池技术论坛 矿泉水独家冠名： 派能科技 活动赞助及演讲单位： 惠州潼湖生态智慧区管理委员会/逸飞激光/小鲁锂电/派能科技/莫洛奇/融捷能源/远东电池/诺达智慧/奥鸿智能/中天和/超业精密/北 测新能源/蓝京新能源/贤辰智享/东唐智能/达力智能/亿鑫丰/爱签/和明机械/金力股份/孚悦科技/乾纳智能装备/多氟多/科迈罗/三合一体/果曼钠电/新能安/ 海辰储能/瑞浦兰钧/鹏辉能源/国轩吉泰美/创明新能源/德赛电池/先导智能/亿纬锂能/移族/新日股份/弘正储能/亮见钠电/易事特/清陶云能/信宇人/星恒电 源/昆仑化学/星翼能源 /汇创新能源 /力通威 等 起点研究十周年晚宴庆典特邀企业名单 (赞助及演讲单位以外）： 巴斯夫/宁德时代/博力威/富临精工/远景动力/楚能新能源/时代联合/金银河/海裕百 特/金钠/中科云储/钹鑫科技/川马激光/浦士达/奥克股份/奥特迅/成泰科技/中能建/富士康储能/中集储能/星霆动力/新日股份/华金资本/中信证券/申 万宏源/德旭资本/贝特瑞/国泰海通/国中资本/飞毛腿/倍特 ...

Group 1 - The mechanical sector has shown strong performance in 2025, with the Shenwan Mechanical Equipment Index rising by 36.11%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 19.74 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 8.78 percentage points [4][16][19] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the mechanical industry reported revenues of 15,135.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.35%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1,080.76 billion yuan, up 16.80% year-on-year [4][22][27] - The public fund allocation ratio for the mechanical equipment sector increased by 0.25 percentage points in Q3 2025 compared to Q3 2024, indicating improved fundamentals and positive policy impacts [29] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing industry has maintained export resilience, with significant growth in new overseas markets. From January to October 2025, the export delivery value of general equipment, specialized equipment, and transportation equipment reached 6,173.20 billion yuan, 5,319.30 billion yuan, and 4,124 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 5.5%, 9.3%, and 24.20% [5][33][36] - The overseas sales of engineering machinery continued to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 11.84% in export value from January to October 2025, driven by technological innovation and diversified market strategies [37][41] - The motorcycle industry has established a strong competitive advantage in overseas markets, with exports reaching 1,101.85 million units and 7.278 billion USD in value from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 22.28% and 28.2% respectively [42][43] Group 3 - The emergence of new manufacturing scenarios signifies a profound transformation from "single technology upgrades" to "systematic ecological restructuring," enhancing production efficiency, product quality, and innovation capabilities [5][46] - Human-shaped robots are expected to address customization challenges in traditional manufacturing, with a market space projected to expand significantly as they transition from industrial applications to household use [47][54] - The intelligent logistics equipment market in China is expected to grow rapidly, with a projected market size of 1,261 billion yuan in 2025, driven by advancements in IoT and AI technologies [64][72]

Event Overview - The 2025 (10th) Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony will be held on December 18-19, 2025, in Shenzhen, marking the 10th anniversary of Qidian Lithium Battery and Qidian Research [1][4] - The theme of the event is "New Cycle, New Technology, New Ecology," focusing on discussions around new materials, processes, technologies, and the evolving industry landscape [1][4] Event Structure - The event includes a main conference and a user-side energy storage and battery technology forum, featuring various specialized sessions [1][4][6] - Key topics include advancements in cylindrical battery technology, battery innovation, new materials, and applications in energy storage [4][6][8] Key Participants - The event will host numerous industry leaders and experts, including representatives from major companies such as CATL, BYD, and BASF, among others [3][10] - Sponsorship and speaking opportunities are provided by various companies, indicating strong industry support and engagement [1][3] Awards and Recognition - The Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award aims to recognize outstanding brands and contributions to the new energy battery industry, promoting innovation and sustainable development [17] - The award ceremony will take place on December 19, 2025, during the evening banquet [18] Registration and Participation - Registration for the event is priced at 2888 RMB per person, which includes access to the conference, meals, and industry white papers [18]

Group 1: High-end Manufacturing and Security - The defense industry is entering a new cycle driven by both domestic demand and external potential, focusing on information technology, intelligent equipment, and emerging fields like military trade and deep space economy [2] - The machinery sector is expected to undergo a value reassessment and technological empowerment, with a focus on robotics and autonomous driving, alongside a push for core technology breakthroughs [2] - The electric power and new energy sectors are witnessing a new growth cycle, with lithium battery storage demand surging and the photovoltaic market stabilizing [2] - The home appliance industry is focusing on policy subsidies, technological transformation, and overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America [2] - The automotive sector is experiencing rapid technological advancements in smart driving and hybrid technologies, with a focus on export opportunities and collaboration with tech companies [2] Group 2: Real Estate and Banking - The real estate market is stabilizing, with key cities expected to see price stabilization driven by household balance sheet recovery and supportive policies [3] - The banking sector is entering a new profit cycle, with stable interest margins supporting long-term profitability, and a focus on undervalued shares and quality city commercial banks [4] Group 3: Securities and Insurance - The securities industry is benefiting from wealth management trends, with a focus on stable earnings and international expansion as a long-term narrative [5] - The insurance sector is characterized by high elasticity, with investment-driven profit growth and a focus on regulatory compliance and risk management [6] Group 4: Construction and Chemicals - The construction industry is expected to stabilize with government debt management and new infrastructure projects, focusing on regional coordination and green development [10] - The chemical sector is entering a recovery phase, with a focus on high-quality enterprises and strategic investments in various chains [10][12] Group 5: Utilities and Environmental Protection - The utilities sector is seeing steady growth in electricity demand, with a focus on high-dividend investments in water and coal power [13] - The environmental protection sector is benefiting from policy adjustments and technological advancements, with a focus on improving profitability in water and waste management [16] Group 6: Capital Markets and Financial Innovation - The capital market is exploring new paths for empowering inclusive finance, focusing on small and micro-enterprise support and rural revitalization [21] - The green certificate market is expected to grow significantly, driven by policy support and increasing demand for renewable energy [22] Group 7: E-commerce and Retail - The retail sector is experiencing structural changes driven by AI, with a focus on rational competition and the globalization of Chinese brands [23] Group 8: Bonds and Financial Engineering - The convertible bond market is expected to see continued growth, driven by demand for fixed income and equity market expectations [25] - The quantitative investment sector is gaining traction, with a focus on unique strategies and the development of fixed income products [27]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 (10th) Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony will focus on the theme "New Cycle, New Technology, New Ecology," discussing the lithium battery industry's evolution over the past decade and its future development [2]. Event Background and Significance - The Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference is a significant annual event that has been held for nine consecutive years, attracting over 1,000 participants each year from the entire lithium battery supply chain [2]. - The 2025 event marks the 10th anniversary of the conference and the Qidian Research Institute, aiming to provide a platform for industry exchange and collaboration [2]. Event Theme and Structure - Event Name: 2025 (10th) Qidian Lithium Battery Industry Annual Conference and Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award Ceremony, along with the 2025 User-side Energy Storage and Battery Technology Forum [2]. - Theme: New Cycle, New Technology, New Ecology [2]. - Scale: Over 2,000 offline participants and 30,000 online viewers [2]. Highlights of the Event - The conference will feature nine specialized forums with over 60 prominent speakers discussing core issues and technological breakthroughs [4]. - The 10th Lithium Battery Golden Ding Award will be held concurrently, recognizing outstanding contributions to the lithium battery industry [4]. - The event will also include the 2025 China New Energy Entrepreneurs Club Council meeting, facilitating direct interactions among industry leaders [4]. - More than 50 exhibitors will showcase solutions across the lithium battery, energy storage, and related sectors [4]. Specialized Topics and Forums - Specialized sessions will cover topics such as soft-pack batteries for eVTOL and drones, high-nickel ternary cathode industrialization, and advancements in lithium battery separator technology [7][8]. - The User-side Energy Storage and Battery Technology Forum will address trends in household energy storage and portable energy systems [7]. Golden Ding Award Details - The Golden Ding Award aims to encourage innovation in the lithium battery industry and recognize brands that contribute significantly to its development [8]. - The award categories include various technical innovation awards for battery cells, energy storage technologies, and materials [9][14]. Registration and Participation - Registration for the event is open, with a participation fee of 2,888 yuan per person, which includes access to the conference, meals, and industry white papers [10].

Group 1: New Cycle - The Chinese economy is entering a new cycle rather than reaching its peak, with significant challenges such as insufficient effective demand [2] - Major infrastructure projects, like the Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, are expected to stimulate investment demand [2] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption through innovative marketing strategies, as seen in Chongqing's tourism initiatives, highlights the shift towards demand-side growth [2][3] Group 2: New Quality Productivity - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the importance of new quality productivity, which is driven by the digital revolution and artificial intelligence [4] - Industries previously considered advanced, such as finance and healthcare, are being redefined through AI applications, enhancing efficiency and user experience [4] - The goal is to achieve a significant leap in productivity that positions China favorably in global competition, similar to its current advantages in mobile payments and high-speed rail [4] Group 3: New Development Concept - The focus of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is on improving people's well-being and promoting comprehensive human development, moving beyond mere material wealth [5] - The importance of the workforce, particularly the 200 million industrial workers, is highlighted as essential for sustaining China's manufacturing success [6] - Investments in education, health, and employment are crucial for enhancing the overall quality of life and ensuring sustainable development [6] Group 4: Dual Circulation New Development Pattern - The "15th Five-Year Plan" introduces a dual circulation strategy, balancing domestic and international markets to navigate global uncertainties [7] - Despite challenges from trade tensions, China's exports have shown resilience, with significant growth in trade with regions like Africa and ASEAN [7] - Companies like XCMG exemplify the dual circulation model by integrating domestic and international operations, enhancing service capabilities alongside product exports [8]

。。 金句回顾 第一大预测：这是一个新周期、新时代，顺应新趋势， 把握新机遇，勇敢再出发，一切发生皆有利于我。 正心正念，坚持做长期正确的事，最终就会开花结果。 悲观者正确，乐观者前行，世界终将属于长期乐观主义者。 团队比平台重要，同行的人和沿途的风景，比要去的远方重要。 唯有长期乐观主义才能穿越周期。 比勤奋更重要的是顺势而为。 成功=勤奋+顺势 你永远无法获得认知以外的成功。 2025|毕典经济 泽平宏观 度的土壤。 4 / 房地产能止步 l有什么影响? 未来将有哪些新趋势? 车? 经济会 干而吗? 住来自未来的新机遇? 欧和胡 ii 国家发展需要技术创新,技术创新 需要制度的土壤,企业家也需要制 第二大预测：全球开启降息周期，特朗普 2.0 搅动全球，世界经济增长分化，制度经济学为各国发展带来希望。 所有的宏观经济政策并不复杂，就是为了当下老百姓的就业、吃饭服务。 经济长期看制度、中期看技术、短期看政策。 外部越紧，内部要越松。 包容性制度促进经济繁荣，掠夺性制度导致经济贫困。 经济学是一门伟大的学科，因为她试图拯救世界。 市场经济和法治精神是经济增长的源泉。 有效率地保护产权的制度是促进经济增长的关键 ...

以下文章来源于中国企业家杂志 ，作者胡楠楠 中国企业家杂志 . 讲好企业家故事，弘扬企业家精神 每一次全球经济社会的低谷，都会酝酿产业浪潮和科技革命，因为人类在 寻找新的突破口。 文 ｜《中国企业家》记者 胡楠楠 编辑 ｜米娜 头图来源 ｜中企图库 12月13日~15日，由《中国企业家》杂志社主办的"2024（第二十二届）中国企业领袖年会"在 北京举行。国内著名经济学家、泽平宏观创始人任泽平出席本次年会，围绕"新周期"这个主 题，分享了他对2025年经济趋势的洞察。 以下为核心要点： 1.每一次全球经济社会的低谷，都会酝酿产业浪潮和科技革命，因为人类在 寻找新的突破口。 2.美联储降息打开了我们货币政策宽松的窗口。时隔14年，我们重新提出适 度宽松的货币政策。 3.明年国产替代、新质生产力可能会受到空前的重视。 4.第四次科技革命可能在7个领域爆发，比如新能源、人工智能、商业航 天、生物制造、基因技术、量子信息技术、可控核聚变。 5.新能源汽车已经进入淘汰赛，下半场是智能驾驶的时代，储能、氢能的时 代，这些在未来有大把的机会。 6.提振资本市场不仅有利于提振消费，还有利于中国的创新。 以下为任泽平现场演讲实录 ...