Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the announcement is the restoration of value-added tax on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which is seen as a long-term interest rate reduction operation [1] - The previous tax exemption policy for government bond interest was aimed at attracting investors during the early stages of the bond market, and the market has now reached a scale where such policies are no longer necessary [1][2] - The bond market will operate under a dual-track system, where existing bonds continue to enjoy tax exemptions until maturity, making them attractive to institutional investors [1] Group 2 - New bonds will need to increase coupon rates to compensate for tax costs, otherwise, it will lead to a de facto interest rate reduction, with the after-tax yield of 10-year government bonds projected to drop from 1.7% to 1.59% if coupon rates remain unchanged [2] - The stock market is expected to benefit from three factors: enhanced relative returns, optimized fund structures, and positive policy signal effects, which may attract conservative funds into high-dividend stocks [2][3] - The tax reform is anticipated to have a long-term impact on the stock market, including a restructuring of pricing logic, optimization of the investment ecosystem, and guidance for capital to support the real economy, particularly in consumption and technology sectors [3]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 13.26 points, a decline of 0.37%, at 3559.95 points, with a trading volume of 684.6 billion yuan [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index fell 18.45 points, down 0.17%, closing at 10991.32 points, with a trading volume of 913.7 billion yuan [1] - The total trading volume of both markets was approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, a decrease of over 300 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Small-cap stocks were favored, with over 3300 stocks rising in the market [1] Global Economic Impact - On July 31, U.S. President Trump signed an executive order imposing "reciprocal tariffs" ranging from 10% to 41% on multiple countries and regions [1] - This news caused significant volatility in global capital markets, with the South Korean Composite Index experiencing a maximum drop of 3.7% and the Nikkei 225 Index dropping over 1% before stabilizing [1] Investment Strategy - In light of the increasing asset price volatility, a balanced asset allocation strategy of "stocks-bonds-commodities" is recommended to mitigate risks [2] - The China A500 ETF is suggested for capturing long-term economic growth opportunities in China [2] - Ten-year government bonds are highlighted for their defensive and offensive attributes, making them worthy of investor attention [2] - Gold is recommended for its safe-haven and monetary properties, supporting both short-term and long-term price trends [2] Economic Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policies reflect a shift in focus from quantity to price by policymakers, fostering growing confidence in China's long-term economic outlook [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) has been below zero for 33 consecutive months since October 2022, indicating a need for policy intervention [3] Technical Analysis - The A-share market showed strong performance in July, with a significant increase in trading volume and price, although a recent pullback occurred due to profit-taking [4] - The Shanghai Composite Index had ten consecutive trading days where the closing price was above the five-day moving average, indicating a strong upward trend [4] Bond Market Insights - The ten-year government bond ETF is recommended for its unique advantages, including T+0 trading, low fees, transparency in holdings, and the ability to pledge for repurchase [7] - The ten-year government bond serves as a benchmark in the bond market, providing a stable base for asset allocation [8] Gold Market Dynamics - Recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, India-Pakistan, and Russia-Ukraine have heightened market risk aversion, supporting gold prices [9] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar's credit system due to challenges to the Federal Reserve's independence further strengthens the case for gold as a stable asset [10] - The U.S. economy faces challenges, with concerns about "stagflation" emerging, which may increase demand for gold as a hedge against inflation [11]

Core Points - The article discusses the significance of "anchor points" and "benchmarks" in investment, particularly focusing on the CSI 300 index for stock investments and the 10-year government bond for bond investments [2][4]. Group 1: Anchor Points in Investment - The CSI 300 index serves as a benchmark for stock investments, indicating whether the market is bullish or bearish based on its annual returns [2]. - The 10-year government bond acts as a key benchmark in the bond market, reflecting market confidence and serving as a critical variable in cross-market asset allocation [2][4]. Group 2: Characteristics of the 10-Year Government Bond - The 10-year government bond is considered a "risk-free rate" due to its high safety, strong liquidity, and stable returns, making it a fundamental pricing anchor for various assets [4]. - It is more representative than shorter or longer-term bonds, balancing yield and volatility effectively [4]. Group 3: Advantages of the 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) - The 10-Year Government Bond ETF (511260) offers significant advantages over individual bond purchases, including minimal time costs, ease of operation, and comprehensive liquidity [5][6]. - The ETF allows for T+0 trading, low transaction fees, transparent holdings, and the ability to pledge for repurchase, enhancing investment flexibility [6][7][8]. Group 4: Strategies for Utilizing the 10-Year Government Bond ETF - Investors can engage in swing trading based on interest rate movements or adopt a systematic investment approach through regular contributions [9]. - A "fixed income plus" strategy can be employed, combining the ETF with equity ETFs to achieve a balanced portfolio [9].

Core Insights - The article highlights the increasing popularity of the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) as a safe-haven asset amid market volatility, with significant net inflows and a growing scale [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The 10-year government bond ETF has seen a net inflow exceeding 6 billion yuan for 10 consecutive days, leading the market with a total scale surpassing 10 billion yuan as of June 19 [1]. - The ETF has consistently achieved high net asset values, with a one-year return of 6.02%, a three-year return of 15.04%, and a five-year return of 19.26% [2]. Group 2: Investment Characteristics - The 10-year government bond is considered a "risk-free return" benchmark, providing high safety, strong liquidity, and stable returns, making it a preferred choice for investors [1]. - The ETF offers T+0 trading, allowing for same-day buying and selling, which is advantageous in a high-volatility market [3]. - The ETF has low trading fees, enhancing capital efficiency [4]. - The ETF's holdings are transparent, with daily disclosures of the PCF list [5]. - Investors can use the ETF for collateralized repurchase agreements, allowing them to access funds for other investments while retaining the ability to redeem the ETF later [5]. Group 3: Strategic Value - According to Guosheng Securities, the 10-year government bond can optimize the risk-return profile of investment portfolios, as it has low or negative correlation with other assets like A-shares, U.S. stocks, and gold [6]. - In the current macroeconomic environment characterized by loose monetary policy and weak credit demand, the 10-year government bond is expected to perform better than other assets [6].