作者｜洋紫 编辑｜李小天 人类历史上最伟大的一次风险投资是什么？ 1620年，一群为信仰与自治而出走的欧洲移民，乘坐五月花号，从英国南安普顿出发横渡大西洋，船上共有100名乘客，用众筹的方式募集了1200英镑， 在陌生大陆上以一纸契约开启了后来美国政治文化的雏形。 这就是ATM Capital创始人屈田眼中，成功风险投资的最经典案例。从1200英镑出发，到今天GDP30万亿美元的全球第一大经济体，刨除通货膨胀的影响 外，"这也说明了出海确实能创造巨大的价值。"屈田向霞光社表示。 2023年，ATM Capital的名字出现在极兔机构股东名单中，作为极兔第一家外部投资机构，屈田以ATM创始人的身份，迈进了公众视野中。 21年前，屈田加入雅虎中国，负责搜索产品运营。随后，阿里巴巴收购雅虎中国，屈田作为第二名员工成为阿里巴巴战投部的一员。2017年，ATM创 立，极兔是屈田成立ATM后，投出的第一个项目。作为第一家专注投资东南亚市场的中国背景风险投资基金，到2023年极兔上市，仅6年的时间——这似 乎是一家年轻基金，伴随新兴市场快速成长的"捕捉未来"故事。 时间转到2025，当更多中国企业开始将视角着眼于寻找新兴市 ...

Core Viewpoints - The traditional consumption market in China is expected to recover, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [9] - The consumption market is showing significant differentiation, moving away from the homogenized phase of mass production to a stage where consumers choose products based on their individual characteristics [44] - The rise of AI is ushering in an era of super consumers and super entrepreneurs, where consumer power is increasingly shifting [38][46] Industry Analysis - The food and beverage industry is currently valued at a reasonable low level, with overall valuations being moderate to undervalued [70][78] - The consumption industry has entered a new adjustment period post-2022, driven by the AI wave, leading to the emergence of super consumers and super entrepreneurs [4][40] - The industry is experiencing a cyclical pattern that is closely related to its own development characteristics and is not significantly affected by economic growth rates [24][51] Investment Opportunities - Companies that can adapt to new consumer demands and innovate will find growth opportunities, particularly in new product varieties and business models [16][19] - Diversification strategies, such as concentric diversification, can help companies navigate challenging market conditions [19][20] - International expansion is becoming a clear strategy for many companies, with a focus on markets like Southeast Asia and Africa [22][73] Consumer Behavior - The shift in consumer power means that products must be designed around consumer needs, leading to a reversal of traditional business logic [75] - The demand for personalized and segmented products is increasing, reflecting a more individualized consumer landscape [44][76] Long-term Value - The core value of consumer goods lies in their long-term, stable, and sustainable performance rather than short-term fluctuations [78][80] - Companies with strong business models and the ability to adapt to market changes will continue to thrive, even in challenging economic conditions [53][59]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of the global gaming industry, particularly focusing on the challenges and opportunities for Chinese gaming companies in the international market. It emphasizes the need for long-term operational capabilities and innovative marketing strategies to succeed in a competitive landscape [3][4][5]. Industry Overview - The global gaming industry experienced rapid growth from 2011 to 2021, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) exceeding 9.7%, and the mobile gaming market in China growing nearly 145% during the same period [5][6]. - However, post-pandemic, the industry has entered a downturn, with global market growth projected to drop to 2% in 2024 and 3% in 2025 [6][9]. Market Dynamics - The competition in the gaming market has intensified, with players increasingly gravitating towards established service-based games, which accounted for over 60% of user engagement time in 2022 [7]. - Emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America, are showing significant growth potential, with mobile gaming revenue in Latin America reaching 48% of total gaming revenue [9][10]. Successful Strategies - Successful examples include Supercell's Brawl Stars, which achieved over $400 million in monthly revenue five years post-launch through effective long-term operations [3]. - Chinese gaming companies are adapting by utilizing advanced marketing tools, such as Google Ads and YouTube, to enhance user acquisition and retention [4][11]. Marketing Evolution - The traditional approach to user acquisition through low-cost downloads is becoming less effective, with a shift towards more sophisticated marketing strategies that focus on user value and engagement [13][14]. - Companies are increasingly integrating brand advertising into their marketing strategies to reach broader audiences and enhance user recognition [15][16]. Technological Advancements - The article highlights the role of AI and advanced advertising platforms, such as Google's Gemini, in reshaping the gaming landscape, enabling companies to better understand and target their audiences [17][18]. - The integration of AI in game development is expected to democratize the creation process, allowing more individuals to participate in game design [18]. Conclusion - The future of gaming globalization for Chinese companies lies in leveraging new marketing capabilities and technological advancements to create and sustain high-quality gaming experiences in emerging markets [10][18].

Core Insights - Increasing number of Chinese AI startups are choosing Japan as their first overseas market due to its stable environment and funding opportunities [1][5] - Japan's startup ecosystem is characterized by government support, a stable market, and a growing acceptance of entrepreneurship among young people [5][11] - The Japanese market presents unique challenges and opportunities, particularly in addressing labor shortages and competition with large enterprises [1][5][11] Group 1: Investment Environment - Japan's startup market is seen as a "blue ocean" with substantial funding and a stable environment, supported by government initiatives [1][5] - The Japanese government launched a five-year startup plan with a budget of 10 trillion yen (approximately 75 billion USD), fostering active investment funds [7] - The exit market for startups is thriving, with a significant increase in mergers and acquisitions (M&A), indicating a robust environment for startup exits [6][7] Group 2: Market Trends - The Japanese startup scene is witnessing a diversification of investment across various sectors, with no clear concentration in any single industry [8][9] - Foreign investors are increasingly applying the "time machine theory" to identify and invest in Japanese startups that mirror successful models from developed markets [9][10] - Japan is on the brink of a full-scale industrial explosion, with numerous innovative projects emerging across various sectors [12][13] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive pressure in Japan is perceived to be lower than in China and the U.S., providing opportunities for startups to thrive [16][19] - Large companies in Japan often prefer collaboration over direct competition with startups, creating a conducive environment for growth [19][26] - Japanese enterprises are characterized by a slower decision-making process, which can hinder innovation but also allows startups to carve out niches [26][27] Group 4: Talent Dynamics - There is a growing willingness among Japanese individuals to join startups, and an increasing number of foreign entrepreneurs are entering the Japanese market [11][17] - The talent pool in Japan is evolving, with a mix of local and international talent contributing to the startup ecosystem [17][51] - Japanese companies are seeking overseas talent that can bring rapid iteration capabilities to their products, particularly in the AI sector [53][54] Group 5: Product Development and Market Entry - Japanese consumers are becoming more accepting of foreign products, provided they meet quality standards [40][41] - The approach to product development in Japan often emphasizes comprehensive solutions, which can be a challenge for startups focusing on niche markets [37][38] - AI products are gaining traction in Japan, with a notable interest in integrating traditional industries with new technologies [44][46] Group 6: Exit Strategies - The exit landscape in Japan includes both acquisitions and public listings, with a relatively low barrier to entry for smaller companies [50][49] - Startups are increasingly exploring innovative exit strategies, leveraging local funding to enhance their market presence [49][50]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing trend of Chinese AI startups choosing Japan as their first overseas market, highlighting Japan's stable and well-funded entrepreneurial environment [2][10] - It emphasizes the need for Chinese entrepreneurs to adopt a fresh perspective to understand the unique demands of the Japanese market [2] Group 1: Market Opportunities - Japan's startup ecosystem is characterized by abundant funding and a stable environment, with government subsidies available for various sectors, making it easier for companies to secure financial support [11][15] - The annual financing amounts for Japanese startups peaked in 2022 but showed a gradual decline in 2023-2024, indicating a stable market that does not fluctuate dramatically like the US and China [12] - The exit landscape in Japan is thriving, with the number of exits increasing from over 130 in 2023 to 178 in 2024, with mergers and acquisitions accounting for 44% of these exits [12][15] Group 2: Talent Dynamics - There is a growing willingness among Japanese individuals to join startups, and the influx of foreign entrepreneurs is also increasing, creating a favorable environment for innovation [19][25] - Despite the positive trends, attracting talent remains a challenge for startups, as many individuals still prefer the stability and benefits offered by traditional large companies [27] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The competitive pressure in Japan is perceived to be lower than in China and the US, providing startups with opportunities to thrive even against larger competitors [23][24] - Japanese large enterprises tend to prefer collaboration over direct competition with startups, often opting to partner with them when they cannot outperform them [33][34] Group 4: Product and Market Fit - Japanese consumers are increasingly open to foreign products, provided they meet quality standards, indicating a potential pathway for Chinese companies to enter the market [44][45] - The article highlights the importance of product strength in the consumer market, noting that Japanese companies often struggle with rapid iteration and decision-making processes [41][51] Group 5: Investment Trends - Investors in Japan are particularly focused on the integration of traditional industries with AI and other new technologies, indicating a trend towards innovation in established sectors [46] - The article suggests that while Japan's market is stable, it lacks the rapid industry hot spots seen in China and the US, making it challenging for companies to secure resources and investments [47]

Core Insights - Southeast Asia is emerging as a high-certainty area for new consumption, with growth rates projected at 4.5% to 4.7% for ASEAN countries compared to a global average of 3.2% [2] - Chinese brands are capitalizing on this consumption upgrade trend, establishing a strong presence in Southeast Asia through various sectors, including tea, toys, and electronics [2][5] - The rise of Chinese brands in Southeast Asia reflects a broader trend of globalization and the adaptation of brands to local markets [2][6] Group 1 - Chinese tea brand Mixue Ice City has become particularly popular in Southeast Asia, with over a thousand stores in Vietnam and significant market penetration in Indonesia [6][8] - The toy brand Labubu has sparked a "Chinese toy craze" in Southeast Asia, significantly boosting sales and tourism in Thailand and Vietnam [8][10] - KKV, a new consumption brand, has opened over 50 stores in Southeast Asia, collaborating with numerous Chinese brands to enhance market presence [10][11] Group 2 - The initial strategy for Chinese brands entering Southeast Asia focused on rapid market penetration, exemplified by Mixue Ice City's aggressive store openings [13] - The second phase involves capturing consumer mindshare, as the Southeast Asian market is still in its early stages of market education [13] - Challenges for brands include regulatory hurdles and the need for localized operations, which can complicate market entry [16][17] Group 3 - KKV has facilitated market entry for various brands by handling import regulations and reducing costs associated with entering local markets [19][20] - The collaborative approach among Chinese brands has proven effective, allowing them to leverage shared resources and market knowledge [21][22] - The success of KKV's model in Southeast Asia may serve as a blueprint for future expansions into other regions, including the Middle East and Europe [38][42]