11月下旬以来，南向资金净流入持续萎缩，12月第二周甚至转为净流出。中金公司（601995）指出：不 排除公募新规超配港股，导致的调仓或资金流出，但这一因素仅在短期有影响，不应无限外推。 左侧布局港股一季度行情： 恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）跟踪恒生科技指数规模最大的ETF 恒生互联网ETF（513330.SH）聚焦互联网巨头，也是持有人户数最多的港股类ETF 港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）覆盖最广泛的港股科技细分行业，包含AI应用、创新药、机器人、 智能车等热门概念。 12月15日~12月19日，港股市场先抑后扬，恒生科技周涨幅-2.82%。南向资金周度重回净流入，净流入 合计达162亿元，扭转了上一周净流出的态势。 展望未来，中金公司指出：相较A股，港股对流动性更敏感，结构上对基本面更敏感。 真正支撑港股市场和估值弹性的是科技（尤其是AI）和消费。其中，港股科技偏应用、偏互联网平 台，即更多集中在AI的"应用层"而非"硬件层"，而当前AI硬件短期确定性高于应用；港股消费主要是可 选消费、新消费，情绪偏弱并缺乏催化。 华泰证券表示，当前（港股）市场依然在左侧布局区间，右侧拐点尚未清晰 ...

中信建投（601066）证券研究所12月19日发表最新研报表示：港股迎来年内最后一次交易窗口。 恒生互联网ETF（513330.SH）聚焦互联网巨头（腾讯控股、阿里巴巴、美团、小米、百度等），也是 持有人户数最多的港股类ETF； 在经历了9月的单边上涨后，10月以来港股市场随着海外宏观预期反复的影响经历了震荡调整。随着AH 两地同步完成中期调整，当前港股部分优质资产重新进入高性价比区间，在北水持续配置、盈利预期修 复及年末宏观预期改善的共振下，港股正迎来一个不容忽视的年内交易窗口。 港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）覆盖最广泛的港股科技细分行业，包含AI应用、创新药、机器人、 智能车等热门概念。 港股成长风格相关ETF： 恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）跟踪恒生科技指数规模最大的ETF； 从大周期来看，目前港股处于牛市中段。前期因风格切换而深度调整的成长板块，或伴随市场情绪回暖 与宏观不确定性消退，将凭借高盈利弹性成为引领市场的核心主线。 多重因素促成港股中期交易窗口打开：1）港股本轮经历的市场调整增厚了安全边际，为新一轮反弹预 留了足够的空间；2）南向资金依然保持净流入态势，或随着海外流动性 ...

市场和行业上，港股相对A股弹性更大，成长相对涨幅更高。 华夏基金也从"日历效应"维度分析，恒生科技每年一季度的表现普遍较好，当前下跌风险提前释放后， 给了岁末年初重新入场、布局2026年的契机。 港股成长风格相关ETF： 12月16日，离岸人民币兑美元汇率一度升至7.04，创2024年10月4日以来新高；在岸人民币兑美元汇率 盘中最高升至7.04，创2024年10月8日以来新高。 与人民币升值形成鲜明对比的是，近期港股市场连续调整，调整幅度也大于A股。综合研究机构观点， 外部流动性的压制或是港股调整的主要原因。 一方面，虽然美联储如期降息25bp，但提前开启扩表，美债收益率近期呈现上升迹象；另一方面，市场 担忧日本央行将于12月19日重启加息周期，配合大规模经济刺激计划，进一步推升日债收益率并引发资 本回流担忧。 不过，华泰证券此前指出：自汇改以来，人民币经历了9轮升值周期，期间股市大多上涨。 恒生科技指数ETF（513180.SH）跟踪恒生科技指数规模最大的ETF 恒生互联网ETF（513330.SH）持有人户数最多的港股类ETF 港股通科技ETF基金（159101.SZ）覆盖最广泛的港股科技细分行业，包含 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to report significant growth in Q4 2025, with revenue forecasts ranging from 21.734 to 34.034 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 35.0% to 111.3% [1][7]. Financial Performance Expectations - Q4 revenue is projected between 21.734 billion and 34.034 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 35.0% to 111.3% [1][7]. - Net profit is anticipated to range from -0.62 billion to 1.643 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 95.3% to 223.5% [1][7]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to be 0.94 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of 106.8% [1][7]. Analyst Predictions - The average revenue forecast is 25.236 billion RMB, indicating a 56.7% year-on-year growth [3][8]. - The median revenue forecast stands at 23.659 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 46.9% [3][8]. - Various securities firms have provided differing estimates, with Dongwu Securities predicting 24.034 billion RMB in revenue and a net profit of 1.23 billion RMB [3][8]. Business Strategy and Developments - Xiaopeng Motors plans to launch seven new models in 2026, covering both pure electric and extended-range vehicles, marking a new phase in the C-end smart vehicle sector [5][10]. - The Robotaxi project is expected to commence trial operations in late 2026, potentially transforming the trillion-yuan mobility market [12][10]. - A deepened collaboration with Volkswagen is anticipated, with plans to jointly launch two full-size electric models in 2026 [13][10]. - The IRON robot is set to enter mass production and will be piloted in commercial service scenarios, showcasing the company's capabilities in the smart robotics field [13][10]. - The A868 flying car has entered the testing phase, with global deliveries planned for the second half of 2026 [14][10]. Recent Performance Highlights - In Q3 2025, Xiaopeng Motors achieved a revenue of 20.38 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 101.8%, with a gross margin of 20.1% [6][14]. - The company expects to achieve profitability in Q4, with an adjusted net loss reduced to 1.5 billion RMB [6][14]. - The automotive segment reported a revenue of 18.05 billion RMB, with a record delivery of 116,000 units [6][14]. - Overseas deliveries increased by 125%, with local production capabilities established in Austria and Indonesia [6][14].

Core Viewpoints - The article discusses four main areas of non-consensus regarding Li Auto, including perceptions of Li Xiang's capabilities, reasons for the company's poor sales this year, the direction and ultimate goals of smart vehicles, and the prospects of physical AI [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Consensus Areas - The first area of non-consensus revolves around how to evaluate Li Xiang's abilities and the implications of leadership errors [1]. - The second area focuses on differing opinions regarding the reasons behind Li Auto's disappointing sales performance this year [1]. - The third area addresses the advanced directions and ultimate goals of smart vehicles, highlighting two main schools of thought: one prioritizing high sales models and the other focusing on end goals [3][4]. - The fourth area concerns the future of physical AI, including its exploration necessity and potential pathways for realization [1]. Group 2: Bayesian Reasoning - The article emphasizes that differing beliefs about the future stem from individuals' Bayesian reasoning, where the strength of prior beliefs and the likelihood of new evidence vary among people [1]. - Those who "believe it to see it" tend to have strong priors that may lead to a higher tolerance for errors, while those who "see it to believe it" have weaker priors, making them more responsive to new evidence [2]. Group 3: Smart Vehicle Directions - Two main factions exist regarding the direction of smart vehicles: one that focuses on high sales models and another that starts with the end goal in mind [3][4]. - The "high sales model" faction emphasizes current successful vehicle features, while the "end goal" faction believes in a future defined by AI and automated driving [5]. Group 4: Evaluation of Li Auto's Strategy - The article notes that perceptions of Li Auto's long-term strategy and capabilities vary significantly, with some believing in the company's potential for recovery through iterative improvements, while others doubt Li Xiang's abilities due to repeated errors [6]. - The evaluation of Li Auto's products and strategies is influenced by whether individuals focus on immediate performance or the foundational principles guiding the company's design [5][6].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the impact of the overnight decline in US tech stocks on Hong Kong tech stocks, with the Hong Kong tech ETF Tianhong (159128) dropping by 2.16% despite a net subscription of 21 million units during the day [1] - Alibaba has reportedly launched a secret project called "Qianwen," aiming to develop a personal AI assistant app based on the Qwen model, directly competing with ChatGPT [1] - Apple has introduced a mini-program partner plan, reducing its commission to 15% [1] Group 2 - Several constituent stocks reported strong Q3 earnings: Tencent's Q3 revenue increased by 15% year-on-year, with adjusted net profit up by 18%, both exceeding expectations; SMIC's Q3 revenue was 17.162 billion yuan, a 9.9% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 43.1% to 1.517 billion yuan; Bilibili's Q3 net profit reached 469 million yuan, with adjusted net profit soaring by 233% to 786 million yuan [1] - The Hong Kong tech ETF Tianhong (159128) tracks the Guozheng Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, focusing on the top 30 core tech assets in Hong Kong, with the top ten constituents accounting for over 75% of the total [1] - The ETF offers a comprehensive investment tool for Hong Kong tech, covering sectors like AI, smart vehicles, innovative pharmaceuticals, and semiconductors, with no restrictions on QDII quotas and T+0 trading available [1] Group 3 - According to China Merchants Securities, the Hong Kong stock market is expected to experience a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery in Q4, with expectations of the Federal Reserve continuing to lower interest rates in December and ending balance sheet reduction, which would alleviate liquidity pressure [2] - The inflow of overseas funds into the Hong Kong stock market is anticipated to improve, with a positive trend in southbound capital net inflows [2] - Overall, the combination of fundamentals, policies, and liquidity is expected to support a rebound in the Hong Kong stock market, which is currently seen as undervalued [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in Q3 performance primarily due to the delayed shipment of a new product from a major client, impacting revenue and profit margins [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - Q3 revenue was 42.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.4% [1]. - Gross profit for Q3 was 2.95 billion yuan, down 20.0% year-on-year and 8.5% quarter-on-quarter, with a gross margin of 6.9%, reflecting a decline of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year and 0.5 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. - Net profit for Q3 was 1.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9.0% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 27.0%, resulting in a net margin of 3.3%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year but up 0.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1]. Business Outlook - For 2026, the company anticipates growth driven by three main areas: AI edge computing, smart vehicles, and computing power [2]. - In the consumer electronics sector, the company expects to increase its market share in A client's Pad and mobile glass business, while enhancing the quality and efficiency of mobile casing production [2]. - The automotive business is projected to maintain rapid growth despite a slowdown in the parent company's vehicle sales, driven by increased shipments of smart cockpit and thermal management products [2]. - The computing power segment is expected to expand significantly, with liquid cooling products anticipated to ramp up production in the first half of next year [2]. - The robotics sector will leverage the company's expertise in system integration and sensor fusion to enhance its offerings in key components and systems [2]. Investment Recommendation - The company is positioned as a leading precision manufacturing enterprise with strong material research, product design, and vertical integration capabilities [3]. - The long-term growth potential is supported by its strategic positioning in the innovation cycle of major clients, new product launches in smart vehicles, breakthroughs in computing power, and advancements in robotics [3].

Core Viewpoint - Mercedes-Benz has invested 1.339 billion RMB in Qianli Technology, becoming its fifth-largest shareholder, marking a strategic move towards enhancing its presence in the Chinese smart driving sector [1][2][12]. Group 1: Investment Details - Qianli Technology announced that Chongqing Lifan Holdings transferred 135.63 million shares at a price of 9.87 RMB per share, which is a 25% discount from the previous closing price [2][3]. - After the transaction, Lifan's shareholding in Qianli will decrease from 13.68% to 10.68%, while Mercedes-Benz will hold a 3% stake [3][12]. - The investment is part of Mercedes-Benz's broader strategy to integrate Chinese technology into its operations, following a similar investment in Momenta [15][17]. Group 2: Company Background - Qianli Technology, previously known as Lifan Technology, has undergone significant transformation under the leadership of its new chairman, Yin Qi, who has a strong background in AI and technology [7][9]. - The company is planning to list H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with a board meeting held on September 12 to approve the proposal [11][12]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - The investment is seen as a further alignment between Mercedes-Benz and Geely, which has previously collaborated with Mercedes on various projects [12][14]. - Qianli Technology is expected to provide technical support for upcoming Mercedes models in China, particularly in the electric vehicle segment [13][14]. - The collaboration with Qianli and previous investments in Momenta indicate a shift towards utilizing Chinese technology for smart driving solutions in Mercedes-Benz vehicles [15][19].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the growth and potential of the smart vehicle industry, particularly in the context of AI advancements and the upcoming World Intelligent Connected Vehicles Conference [1][2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has released safety requirements for intelligent connected vehicle auxiliary driving systems, indicating a regulatory push towards standardization in this sector [1] - The smart vehicle market is projected to reach a scale of 83.1 billion yuan by 2030 and grow to 709.6 billion yuan by 2035, emphasizing the significant growth potential in the Robotaxi segment [2] Group 2 - The CSI 500 Quality Growth Index has shown a positive performance, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Blu-ray Technology (5.65%) and Hisense Visual (5.20%) [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index account for 21.48% of the index, with East Wu Securities being the highest at 2.70% [3][4] - The CSI 500 Quality Growth ETF closely tracks the CSI 500 Quality Growth Index, providing investors with diversified investment options focused on companies with strong profitability and sustainable cash flow [2][6]

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing fluctuations in style, shifting between large-cap value and small-cap growth stocks due to various economic and geopolitical factors [1] Market Trends - After December 2023, the market faced a lack of confidence, leading to a tight funding environment and a decline in small-cap stocks, with a shift back to large-cap and value stocks [1] - From January 2024, sectors such as AI and smart vehicles became active, prompting a transition towards small-cap and growth stocks [1] - Post-May 2024, geopolitical and macroeconomic influences caused a further decline in market sentiment, maintaining low trading volumes and a return to large-cap value stocks, which showed resilience [1] Market Performance - At the beginning of the year, the market was buoyed by concepts like DeepSeek and humanoid robots, leading to increased capital inflow and a shift towards small-cap growth stocks [1] - Recently, the market has shown signs of recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs and trading volumes remaining elevated, indicating that small-cap growth stocks are more resilient [1]