【AI产业跟踪】 Qwen 开源 4B 端侧模型 摘要:产业最新趋势跟踪,点评产业最新风向 百度发布智能云数字员工 产业研究中心 | ર્ | 李嘉琪(分析师) | | --- | --- | | క | 010-83939821 | | D | lijiaqi2@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040001 | | S | 刘峰(研究助理) | | ર | 0755-23976068 | | E | liufeng6@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880124060013 | 在期回顾 【新材料产业周报】 旭化成与丰田签约向其供应 锂电池隔膜,天羿鹏博等多家新材料企业完成融 O AI 科技前沿 全球首个人形机器人通用视觉感知系统 Humanoid Occupancy 发布 类脑计算机"悟空"发布 全球首个高分辨率三维无线电地图数据集及扩散式建图框架发布 0 风险提示 AI 软件销售不及预期,capex 投资计划变动,AI 产品及大模型研发不及预期 | 往电池间肤,入井鹏将于夕茶制 付在正正成成 资 2025.08.11 | | --- | | 长征十二号运载火箭发射成功 ...

Group 1: Overseas Strategy - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its bullish trend in the second half of the year, outperforming the A-share market. The overall increase in Hong Kong stocks has been more significant than that of A-shares since the beginning of the year, driven by sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals, new consumption, and AI applications [1][2] - The current technology and consumer assets in the Hong Kong stock market align well with industry development trends and have superior fundamentals, which may attract continued capital inflows from the mainland [1][2] Group 2: Military Industry - The military industry is on an upward trend due to the intensifying great power competition, with increased defense spending being a necessary option. The focus of U.S. and allied defense strategies is gradually shifting towards the Indo-Pacific region, which may lead to heightened tensions around China [3][4] - The defense military index outperformed the market, rising by 0.66% during the week of July 26 to August 1, while the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index fell by 0.94% and 0.74%, respectively [4] Group 3: Consumer Services - Gu Ming, a leading player in the domestic ready-to-drink tea market, has significant supply chain and operational advantages, with broad growth potential. The company is focusing on high-frequency product innovation and strong franchisee management to ensure consistent store operations [8][9] - The ready-to-drink beverage market has substantial growth potential, particularly in lower-tier markets, driven by increasing consumer demand and the ongoing evolution of product categories [9][10] Group 4: Cosmetics - Lin Qingxuan, a pioneer in the "oil-based skincare" segment, has successfully established a high-end brand image through its camellia oil products. The company is focusing on product innovation and expanding its product categories to enhance its market presence [11][12] - The cosmetics market is projected to grow significantly, with the anti-wrinkle and firming skincare segment expected to reach a market size of 119.8 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 18.9% from 2024 to 2029 [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is transitioning from a stock game to an incremental market, driven by significant improvements in capital inflow and supportive macro policies [2][6]. Capital Inflow and Market Transition - The capital inflow scale has significantly improved, with various types of funds, including public funds, quantitative funds, and insurance, showing synchronized incremental inflows [2][3]. - The shift from net outflows to net inflows in active public funds is expected to occur by June 2025, indicating a gradual transition to an incremental market [2][3]. Investment Strategy Shift - Investors are advised to shift from short-term trading strategies to holding strategies, as the attractiveness of core assets with high economic resilience is expected to rise [2][3]. - The focus should be on sectors with low valuations and high resilience, such as overseas markets and Hang Seng Technology, which are anticipated to become key allocation directions for incremental funds [2][6]. Sector Rotation and Opportunities - Key sectors for investment include Hang Seng Technology, non-ferrous metals, and AI, each with unique investment logic and clear rotation rhythms [4][5]. - The Hang Seng Technology sector is expected to benefit from multiple catalysts, including the domestic application of AI and optimization of domestic computing power capacity [4][5]. Emerging Trends in Overseas Markets - The overseas market is seen as a new direction for investment, with significant potential for companies in the export chain to exceed performance expectations [3][4]. - Historical data indicates that overseas expansion significantly enhances companies' return on equity (ROE) and profit margins, although this potential has not yet been fully priced in by the market [3][4]. Focus on AI and Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The AI and innovative pharmaceuticals sectors are highlighted as core investment directions due to their clear industry trends and growth potential [5][6]. - The AI sector is experiencing a positive cycle driven by increased reasoning computing power and user engagement, while innovative pharmaceuticals are positioned as a resilient sector amid economic fluctuations [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a collective rebound on June 24, with the automotive sector showing strong growth, driven by positive production and sales data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) and advancements in autonomous driving technology [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - On June 24, major A-share indices rebounded collectively, with significant gains in the automotive sector. The automotive parts ETF (562700) rose by 3.23%, the Hong Kong Stock Connect automotive ETF (159323) increased by 3.01%, the smart car ETF (159888) grew by 2.94%, and the new energy vehicle ETF (515030) saw a rise of 2.16% [1]. - Related concept stocks such as Zhejiang Shibao and Tongda Electric hit the daily limit, while companies like Yutong Optical, Huace Navigation, Top Group, Dalian Technology, and Guangting Information also experienced upward movement [1]. Group 2: Industry Growth - According to CAAM, in the first five months of the year, both production and sales of automobiles achieved over 10% growth, with domestic demand significantly improving due to policy support [1]. - Despite facing challenges from international uncertainties, the export of complete vehicles has shown resilience and maintained stable growth [1]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - CITIC Securities reported that Pony.ai's seventh-generation autonomous driving vehicles, based on GAC Aion, have begun public road testing in Guangzhou and Shenzhen [1]. - Companies like Jiushi, New Stone, and White Rhino are accelerating order volumes, indicating a turning point in costs and technology for the L4 autonomous driving industry this year [1]. - The current market environment is rapidly catching up with industry advancements, as technology iterations, industry patterns, and new business models continue to evolve, suggesting potential upward momentum for the sector [1].

中信证券：港股在资产配置中合理占比应为40%至 50% 数据显示，截至2025年3月16日，中证沪港深300、沪港深500及中华沪深港300指数的港股市值占比分别 为48%、45%及49%；MSCI China指数中港股占比更高达60%。此外，以恒生指数/（恒生指数+沪深 300）、中证港股通50/（中证港股通50+中证A100）等指标测算，港股市值占比均在45%至55%区间。 报告显示，截至2024年末，国内主动权益类公募基金港股持仓平均占比仅为25.5%，前十大重仓股中仅 腾讯控股一只港股。相较港股通50%的可投比例上限，增配空间显著。2025年春节后，公募基金加速提 升港股仓位，叠加保险资管、私募及零售资金流入，推动年内南向资金净买入近4000亿港元。 中信证券认为，港股走强源于两大核心优势：一是新经济核心资产集中，国产算力、互联网、智能车及 创新药四大方向在港股市场具备独占性，2023年以来港股IPO也以智驾、创新药等新经济领域为主；二 是港股龙头盈利修复弹性更大。当前A股核心资产中约45%（以万得茅指数+宁组合49家公司为样本） 尚未走出经营拐点，而港股公司净利润率及营收增速处于回升初期，后续盈利改 ...

华北某基金经理对证券时报·券商中国记者提示风险时表示，权益市场短期，特别是偏成长科技风格的板 块，有泡沫化的迹象，短期的调整是必要的，调整的幅度决定了后期参与的深度。 此外，持续走牛的恒生科技指数近日也迎来回撤。华南某基金经理认为，当下对于恒生科技要提示两点： 一是快速上涨之后必然存在回调需求。"恒生科技一直是个高波动资产，在此轮上涨背后，我们尚未看到 上市公司业绩的持续兑现，除了少量公司之外，大部分港股上市公司尚未发布业绩，实际上我们也并不期 待DeepSeek的影响会在去年Q4业绩中有所体现，但是管理层在业绩会上给的指引很重要，未来或存在市 场预期与实际业务进展存在差异的情况，这其实在过去两年美股AI标的行情演绎的过程中也出现过。" 另一方面，开年至今，港股通高股息策略表现不佳，市场跷跷板行情较为显著。前述基金经理认为，这主 要与美债收益率始终处于高位相关。 回顾近期的行情走势，AI的叙事逻辑主导了市场的波动，TMT的成交持续占A股成交的40-50%左右。有 掌管固收产品的基金经理对证券时报·券商中国记者坦言道：市场是如此割裂，给AI硬件及相关应用的公 司动辄10倍以上的PS；但是给其他传统的、所谓的"上 ...