Group 1 - Morgan Stanley suggests that if the Federal Reserve's actions do not meet investor expectations, the market may face volatility risks [2] - The S&P 500 index has rebounded over 30% since early April, driven by reduced uncertainty regarding White House policies and optimism surrounding the AI boom [2] - A new round of looser monetary policy has contributed to market performance, with expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the current U.S. economy may not require significant rate cuts, as the "rolling recession" has ended and the economy is transitioning to an early cycle recovery [2] - Analysts are revising corporate earnings expectations upward, aligning with improvements in indicators like the ISM Purchasing Managers' Index [2] - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's current level of policy easing is below typical standards due to the labor market not deteriorating and inflation remaining above the 2% target [2] Group 3 - The report warns of short-term risks in the stock market if the Federal Reserve recognizes the dynamics of the current economic recovery and decides against substantial rate cuts [2] - The tightening liquidity environment, driven by the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening and large-scale bond issuance by the U.S. Treasury, is contributing to market liquidity pressures [3] - Morgan Stanley anticipates that signs of liquidity stress may first appear in the widening spread between secured overnight financing rates (SOFR) and federal funds rates [3]

以明星分析师威尔逊（Michael Wilson）为首的大摩美股策略师团队发布报告称，当前美国经济或许并 不需要如此大幅度降息。"我们的观点始终一致，即'滚动式衰退'已随着特朗普政府的政策软化而终 结，目前经济正处于向早期周期 / 滚动式复苏过渡的阶段，企业盈利增长有望超出预期。" 宽松预期高涨下，流动性压力或成为市场关键风险。 摩根士丹利认为，如果美联储的行动未能达到投资者预期，市场或面临动荡风险。 周一，美国三大股指再创历史新高。截至收盘，标普500指数已经较4月初低点反弹超30%，一方面这是 市场对白宫政策不确定性的担忧有所弱化，另一方面源于投资者对人工智能热潮的乐观情绪持续升温。 与此同时，新一轮更宽松的货币政策环境也起到了助推作用。上周，美联储宣布重启降息。利率市场定 价显示，今年美联储可能将降息50个基点，明年底联邦基金利率水平或降至3%左右。 威尔逊表示，市场面临的风险在于：若美联储认识到当前经济 "滚动式复苏" 的动态特征，并判定无须 如此大幅度降息，即便从经济层面看这可能是正确决策，但市场此前已消化了更多降息预期，因此从市 场角度而言，这一结果将令人失望，且可能阻碍一轮完整的早期周期板块轮动 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market indices reached new historical highs, driven by market adaptation to White House policy uncertainties and ongoing optimism surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) [2] Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has risen 33.75% since its low in April, with a year-to-date increase of 13.3% [2] - The Federal Reserve initiated a new round of interest rate cuts, which is providing support to the market [3] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley's strategy team, led by Mike Wilson, warns that if the Fed's rate cuts do not meet investor expectations, it could lead to market volatility [3] - Wilson believes the U.S. economy may not require aggressive rate cuts, suggesting that the current economic transition is moving towards an early recovery phase [4] - There are signs of pent-up demand in sectors that have experienced weak growth over the past few years, including real estate, short-cycle industries, consumer goods, transportation, and commodities [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policy - The Fed's current "easing shift" differs from conventional paths in past economic cycles, as the labor market has not deteriorated to a level necessitating significant rate cuts, and inflation remains above the 2% target [4] - There is a contradiction between the Fed's policy response and the market's demand for rapid rate cuts, posing short-term risks to the stock market [4] Group 4: Liquidity Concerns - The market faces risks if the Fed recognizes the economic shift from "rolling recession to recovery" and determines that large-scale rate cuts are unnecessary, which could disappoint the market [5] - Liquidity is gradually tightening as the Fed continues quantitative tightening while the U.S. Treasury issues a large volume of bonds [5] - Signs of liquidity pressure may first appear in the spread between the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the federal funds rate, with the Bank of America Merrill Lynch MOVE index currently at 72.5, close to a four-year low [5]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley suggests that the recent slowdown in U.S. job growth is a sign of economic bottoming rather than a recession, indicating the early stages of a "rolling recovery" [1] - The firm believes that June marked the low point of the current economic cycle, and non-farm employment will not see a sharp decline unless the economy faces another shock [1] - Goldman Sachs' chief economist forecasts that the U.S. economy is nearing stagnation and will require several interest rate cuts to regain growth momentum, with improvements not expected until 2026 [2] Group 2: Employment Data - The latest employment report is interpreted optimistically by Morgan Stanley, which states that employment data is lagging and the economy has already entered a recovery phase [1] - The report indicates that the employment weakness was most pronounced around the "liberation day," suggesting a cyclical low in non-farm employment [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - The U.S. dollar index experienced slight gains, trading around 97.90, supported by short covering and market caution ahead of inflation data [3] - The euro and British pound both saw slight declines against the dollar, influenced by profit-taking and the rising expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the U.S. economy, suggesting that it has been in a "rolling recession" for the past three years, but is now entering a new bull market phase, as indicated by recent market performance [1][5]. Group 1: Market Performance - Mike Wilson from Morgan Stanley claims that the significant market sell-off in April marked the end of the bear market, and the current market is experiencing a healthy gradual rise rather than a sharp increase [1]. - The S&P 500 index has shown a V-shaped recovery, rising 30% since its April low, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 9% [1]. - Wilson predicts that the S&P 500 could reach 7,200 points by mid-2026, driven by strong earnings, AI applications, a weaker dollar, tax cuts, pent-up demand, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [5]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Wilson advises investors to buy on dips, emphasizing that the current bull market is still in its early stages [3]. - Despite the cautious approach of institutional investors during market downturns, retail investors continue to buy stocks, contributing to the market's rapid recovery [5]. - The article highlights the risks associated with the buy-the-dip strategy, as investors may end up buying at unfavorable prices if the market continues to decline [7].

"木头姐"：美国已陷入"滚动式衰退"！ 方舟投资（Ark Invest）掌门人"木头姐"凯西·伍德（Cathie Wood）表示，美国已陷入"滚动式衰退"（不 同行业轮动衰退）。 她补充说，对工作保障的担忧促使美国人把更多的钱存起来，她预计会有一两个季度出现就业负增长。 但在她看来，对失业的担忧将为特朗普政府减税和美联储降息做好准备。 尽管美联储上周三维持利率不变并上调通胀预期，但点阵图坚守年内两次降息路径。鲍威尔鸽派表态让 华尔街嗅到"美联储看跌期权"复活的气息——这意味着如果经济恶化，美联储将降低利率为经济"兜 底"。伍德大胆预言："下半年通胀降温将释放更多宽松空间，降息可能超过2-3次。" 3月初，伍德曾在纽约的举行彭博投资大会上表示，美国经济正处于"为期三年的滚动式衰退"末期，之 后美股将迎来腾飞，其中关键在于股市上涨的范围要进一步扩大。这位方舟投资的掌门人似乎改变了她 的想法。 本文源自：金融界 伍德指出，特朗普关税重拳与裁员潮正迫使美国家庭捂紧钱包，"对失业的恐惧让储蓄率飙升，消费引 擎骤然熄火"。她透露，方舟投资近期逆势抄底特斯拉、Coinbase与Robinhood等加密货币关联资产，坚 信" ...