骗局的玄妙之处在于，其顺利运行的时候人们会将其视为真相。骗不一定真的是骗。骗局在没有被人们 意识到，没有被大众所真正揭露出来时，它是一种真理的表现形式。它坦然，真挚，热情，甚至有着某 些深刻崇高的因素在里面。只有当一小部分人逐渐意识到所谓的真相背后，其实是小部分人对大部分人 利益的剥夺，"骗"的定义和后果，才会真正浮出水面。 02 斗 01 骗 新时代的中国人对于"合流"这个词是完全陌生的。人们根本不知道，也不愿意相信自己可能身处险境。 那句"不在餐桌上就在菜单上"所透露的信息，人们早已忘记。而那些清清楚楚展示出的恶意，人们也更 愿意视之为巧合。以慕强为借口，人们坦然接受了自己的命运只能交由强者摆布，以稳定为理由，人们 默认自己的世界可以变得更差。在一个大多数人最核心需求只是减少能耗的世界里，小部分人的合流就 成为了代价最小、利益最大化的选择。 07 分化 分化是种自然现象，更是种人为动作。分化本不以人的意志为转移，世界从来不是平等或公平的。就像 对于生命来说，有撒哈拉沙漠的干涸，就有亚马逊热带雨林的万物生机。但人区别于动物或某些未知邪 恶生物的区别在于，人的社会性、道德感会应该学会驱使着世界从原始的不均衡与 ...

从载体角度看，我国拥有产业体系配套完整优势。科技进步不是凭空发生的，重大科技创新必须依托于 雄厚的产业基础和广泛的生产实践。有研究表明，脱离制造业根基的研发难以拥有持久的生命力。这也 是世界一些发达经济体着力推动再工业化的原因之一。在理念上，我国强调，不论经济发展到什么时 候，实体经济都是我国经济发展、我们在国际经济竞争中赢得主动的根基。在实践中，我国制造业增加 值占全球比重已接近30%，总体规模连续15年保持全球第一；全球504种主要工业产品中，我国大多数 产品产量居第一位。完整产业体系优势为新质生产力发展取得重大突破奠定重要基础。 发展新质生产力是推动高质量发展的内在要求和重要着力点。党的二十届四中全会审议通过的"十五 五"规划建议将"高质量发展取得显著成效"作为"十五五"时期经济社会发展的主要目标之一，提出"发展 新质生产力、构建新发展格局、建设现代化经济体系取得重大突破"，为抢抓新一轮科技革命和产业变 革历史机遇提供了指引。 新质生产力是创新起主导作用，具有高技术、高效能、高质量特征的先进生产力质态。确保在发展新质 生产力上取得重大突破，直接关系着经济社会发展的质量和效益，关系着我国在全球政治经济格局 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the macroeconomic environment in China and the implications for various sectors, particularly focusing on technology and AI investments. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Macroeconomic Challenges**: The current economic situation in China is characterized by a mismatch in production relations, leading to issues such as overcapacity and insufficient effective demand. This has been a consistent theme among economists since mid-last year, with policies introduced in September aimed at addressing these issues, though they are seen as more of a stopgap rather than a solution to the core problems [1][2][3]. 2. **Production Relations vs. Productivity**: There is a critical distinction made between productivity improvements (especially through technology) and the underlying production relations. While technological advancements are essential, they do not necessarily resolve the existing mismatches in production relations, which may even worsen in certain scenarios [2][3][4]. 3. **AI and Capital Expenditure**: The rise of AI has led to significant capital expenditure in the U.S., which is not as pronounced in China. This investment is compared to past infrastructure investments by local governments in China, suggesting that while AI may provide short-term benefits, the long-term financial sustainability of such investments is questionable [5][6]. 4. **Market Dynamics and Investment Strategy**: The capital markets are currently driven by productivity, particularly in technology sectors. However, there is a warning that the current enthusiasm for AI stocks may be overblown, with potential bubbles forming. Investors are advised to consider a balanced approach, incorporating both high-growth tech stocks and more stable value stocks [7][8][9]. 5. **Sector Performance**: There is a notable performance difference between AI-related stocks and traditional sectors such as commodities and mining, which have shown better returns this year. Value stocks, particularly in the banking sector, have also performed well, suggesting a need for diversification beyond tech [10][11]. 6. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The discussion highlights the uncertainty surrounding the sustainability of current economic trends, particularly in relation to AI and its impact on labor markets. There are signs of layoffs in tech sectors, indicating that the benefits of AI may not be as widespread as anticipated [12][13][14]. 7. **Investment in Gold and Silver**: The conversation touches on the rising prices of gold and silver, with a suggestion that these assets may serve as a hedge against inflation and currency devaluation. However, there are concerns about the long-term sustainability of gold prices, especially in light of recent central bank actions [20][21][22][23]. 8. **Cyclical Nature of Industries**: The potential for recovery in certain sectors, such as construction and materials, is discussed. Companies that maintain profitability during downturns may emerge stronger as weaker competitors exit the market [13][14][15]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - The discussion emphasizes the importance of understanding the cyclical nature of industries and the potential for recovery, even in currently struggling sectors. There is a call for investors to remain vigilant and adaptable in their strategies, considering both macroeconomic indicators and sector-specific dynamics [16][17][18][19]. - The historical context of economic cycles and the impact of government policies on market dynamics are also highlighted, suggesting that past experiences can inform current investment decisions [24][25][26][27][28][29][30]. - The potential for the Chinese yuan to gain strength in the global market is mentioned, which could influence investment strategies moving forward [27][28][29][30]. This summary encapsulates the key themes and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and investment considerations.

Core Insights - The conference "万里同春·豫见未来——中原酿新势·2025中国消费智链创新峰会" held in Zhengzhou focuses on new consumption, new manufacturing, and new supply chains, aiming to share new models and experiences while discussing how the capital market can empower growth in the consumer sector [1] - Economist Fu Peng discusses the restructuring of order and development paths driven by AI technology, emphasizing that while technology is a primary productive force, the matching of production relations is crucial for wealth growth [3][4] - Fu Peng warns that the rapid advancement of AI will reshape production relations across industries, but stresses the importance of aligning technology with existing social production relations to avoid exacerbating employment pressures [4][5] Industry and Economic Analysis - Fu Peng references the AJR theoretical model from recent Nobel Prize winners, highlighting that "order" is an independent factor in production relations, which helps explain various economic and social issues [3] - The discussion includes examples from industries such as film, animation, and toy manufacturing, illustrating how AI is disrupting traditional production processes and supply chain models [4] - Fu Peng argues that the advancement of AI will not be universally beneficial, as its adoption will accelerate social stratification, favoring those who can adapt to new tools while potentially sidelining others [4][5]