2025.11.24-11.28 黄金、白银 期货品种周报 01 P A R T 黄金期货 目录 01 中线行情分析 02 品种交易策略 03 相关数据情况 Contents 中线行情分析 沪金期货整体趋势处在上升通道中，当前可能处于趋势尾声。 中线趋势判断 1 趋势判断逻辑 上周黄金价格呈现区间震荡走势，核心驱动逻辑为美债收益率波动、美 联储政策预期分歧及市场情绪反复。短期来看，金价或延续910-970元/ 克区间震荡；中长期受全球央行购金趋势延续、美联储降息周期预期支 撑，价格中枢有望逐步上移。 2 建议观望。 中线策略建议 3 品种交易策略 上周策略回顾 沪金合约2602短期震荡整固，上方压力位960－970元/克，下方 支撑位900-910元/克，建议以观望为主。 本周策略建议 沪金合约2602短期延续震荡，上方压力位960－970元/克，下方支 撑位910-920元/克，建议以观望为主。 品种诊断情况 本报告数据来源为Wind、Mysteel、长城期货交易咨询部 精选指标情况 [图片] 相关数据情况 10000000.00 15000000.00 20000000.00 25000000.00 30 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huazhong Securities indicates a persistent global silver supply-demand gap, with a projected deficit of 4,633 tons in 2024 and an expected shortfall of 3,660 tons in 2025, primarily driven by increased photovoltaic demand [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - Global silver supply is estimated at 31,574 tons and demand at 36,207 tons for 2024, resulting in a significant supply-demand imbalance [1] - Since 2021, the global silver market has consistently experienced a supply shortage, which is anticipated to continue into 2025 [1] Economic and Market Implications - Silver possesses unique industrial and financial attributes, contrasting with gold's stronger financial and safe-haven characteristics, leading to a widening gold-silver ratio during economic downturns [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December 2025, combined with quantitative easing and a rebound in industrial demand, suggests that silver prices may continue to rise [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's silver reserves rank among the top five globally, accounting for approximately 11% of the world's total silver reserves, with over 1,500 silver mines [1] Supply and Demand Situation - The primary sources of silver supply in China are from mining and recycling, with projected mining output for 2024 at 3,426 tons and recycling at 1,233 tons [1] - Due to the increasing applications of silver, domestic resources are insufficient to meet demand, necessitating imports of silver ore and other concentrates to fill the gap [1] Consumption Breakdown - In 2024, China's total silver consumption is expected to reach 9,428 tons, with industrial demand being particularly significant at 8,567 tons, predominantly driven by the electrical and electronics sector, which accounts for a demand of 6,577 tons [1] Price Trends - Silver prices have seen a notable increase this year, with the COMEX silver price reaching $53.765 per ounce on October 17, up over 70% from $29.985 on January 2 [1]

Core Insights - China ranks among the top five countries globally in silver reserves, accounting for approximately 11% of the world's total silver reserves, with over 1,500 silver mines [2] - The primary sources of silver supply in China are from mining and recycling, with projected mining output of 3,426 tons and recycling volume of 1,233 tons in 2024 [4] - Industrial demand drives silver consumption in China, with total silver consumption expected to reach 9,428 tons in 2024, of which industrial demand will account for 8,567 tons, predominantly from the electrical and electronics sector [6] - Silver prices have seen a significant increase, with COMEX silver reaching $53.765 per ounce on October 17, up over 70% from $29.985 on January 2 this year [6] Group 1 - China has significant silver reserves, with the Shuangjianzi Mountain silver-lead mine in Inner Mongolia recognized as the largest in Asia and fifth globally [2] - The quality of silver ore in China is relatively low, impacting the overall resource endowment [2] Group 2 - The increasing demand for silver in various applications has led to a need for imports to supplement domestic supply [4] - The electrical and electronics sector is the largest contributor to industrial silver demand, with a consumption of 6,577 tons [6]

中概股方面，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌超1.7%，其中小鹏跌超5%，百度、蔚来、阿里等热门中概股跌 超4%，金山云、理想、跌超3%。 白银现货创新高后持续走强 10月9日晚间，现货白银历史首次升至50美元/盎司关口上方，随后一度涨破51美元关口，年内累计涨逾 73%，表现优于黄金。 中国有色金属工业协会金银分会副秘书长、信息咨询部主任石和清在接受采访时表示，银价的上涨是多 重因素共振的结果。 10月9日，美股早盘走低，截至北京时间23：06，美股三大指数飘绿。 英伟达创新高 中概股下挫 个股方面，英伟达涨幅一度扩大至3%，总市值再创新高，达4.7万亿美元。 据证券时报报道，当地时间9日，美联储货币政策委员会（FOMC）委员、纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰· 威廉姆斯（John Williams）明确表态，支持在今年内进一步下调利率，以应对劳动力市场可能出现的急 剧放缓风险。 美联储公布9月会议纪要，大多委员同意降息25个基点 据央视新闻报道，当地时间8日，美国联邦储备委员会公布了9月货币政策会议的会议纪要。 一方面，近5年来全球白银实物供应都处于短缺状态，且最近几年白银呈现较强工业属性，太阳能产业 的爆发式增长推动光伏 ...

Market Overview - US stock market opened lower on October 9, with all three major indices in the red [1] - Nvidia's market capitalization reached a new high of $4.7 trillion, with its stock price increasing by 3% [3] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell over 1.7%, with significant declines in Chinese stocks such as XPeng (down over 5%), Baidu, NIO, and Alibaba (each down over 4%) [3] Silver Market - Spot silver prices surpassed $50 per ounce for the first time in history, later breaking the $51 mark, with a year-to-date increase of over 73%, outperforming gold [4] - The rise in silver prices is attributed to a combination of factors, including a persistent global supply shortage and increased demand from the solar energy sector [4] - The World Silver Association forecasts a 2% increase in total silver supply by 2025, while total demand is expected to decrease by 1%, narrowing the global silver supply gap to 117.6 million ounces [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized the importance of community banks in the US financial system during a recent event, highlighting their close ties to local economies [5] - Powell did not address the current economic situation or monetary policy in his remarks [6] - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, expressed support for further interest rate cuts within the year to mitigate potential risks in the labor market [8] - The minutes from the September FOMC meeting indicated a consensus among members to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to between 4% and 4.25% due to signs of labor market weakness [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: The medium - to long - term upward trend remains unchanged, but there is a game in short - to medium - term drivers. Trump's policy combination will push up the US federal government debt, weaken the US dollar credit, and with factors like the approaching Fed rate cut, complex global geopolitical situation, and continued central bank gold purchases, the gold price will rise in the long run. However, in the short - to medium - term, factors such as the impact of tariff policies on the US economy, the Fed's rate - cut timing and space, and the potential rebound of the US dollar index will affect the gold price [1][17][18]. - Silver: The medium - term logic is expected to return to the fundamentals, and there will still be downward pressure in the second half of the year. After the recent significant catch - up, the silver price will be influenced by its commodity attributes. With an increase in global supply, a decrease in demand, and a narrowing supply - demand gap in 2025, coupled with risks to industrial and photovoltaic silver demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [2][19][74]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 1. 2025 H1 Market Review - Gold: In H1 2025, Trump's policies increased market uncertainty, weakened the US dollar, and with central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, the gold price rose strongly. Gold ETF inflows, especially in April, were a key driving force. After April, the gold price fluctuated at a high level due to policy adjustments and market sentiment changes. COMEX gold rose about 28.2%, and SHFE gold rose about 26.1% [8][9][10]. - Silver: It generally followed the gold price but was restricted by its industrial attributes. After being sold off in early April, it rebounded and reached a new high in late May and early June. COMEX silver rose about 22.7%, and SHFE silver rose about 18.7% [10]. 3.2 2. 2025 H2 Precious Metals Market Outlook - Gold: The long - term upward trend remains unchanged, supported by factors such as the weakening of the US dollar credit, continued central bank gold purchases, and the approaching Fed rate cut. However, in the short - to medium - term, there are uncertainties in the US economy, Fed policy, and the US dollar index, which will affect the gold price [17][18][19]. - Silver: The medium - term logic will return to the fundamentals. With an increase in supply, a decrease in demand, and risks to industrial and photovoltaic demand, the silver price is expected to be weak, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [19][74]. 3.3 3. Main Macroeconomic Influencing Factors Analysis 3.3.1 Medium - to Long - Term Perspective: Gold's Upward Trend Remains Unchanged - The tariff policy and fiscal deficit expansion will weaken the US dollar credit, and the demand for hedging against the US dollar credit risk will support the gold price [20][21]. - Global central banks will continue to purchase gold due to the increasing US dollar credit risk and geopolitical uncertainties, providing support for the gold price [22]. - The market's hedging demand will remain due to the uncertainty of tariff policies and geopolitical situations [23]. 3.3.2 Short - to Medium - Term Perspective: Driving Forces Are in a Game - **Impact of Tariff Policy Negotiations and Tax Cuts on the US Economy**: The tariff policy may cause the US economy to weaken, boosting the precious metals market. However, a controllable trade agreement and the implementation of tax and expenditure bills may offset the negative impact on the precious metals market. The US employment market is relatively stable but has hidden risks, inflation may rise in the second half of the year, and consumer spending and PMI show signs of slowdown [30][31][41]. - **Approaching Fed Rate Cut but Limited Space**: The Fed is expected to cut rates, but the timing may be late and the space limited, which will support the precious metals market but also restrict the short - term upward space of the gold price [44][45][48]. - **Be Wary of the Risk of a Temporary Rebound in the US Dollar**: Although the US dollar index has declined, factors such as the high 10 - year US Treasury yield and the US's relative economic advantage may limit its further decline and even cause a rebound, which will suppress the gold price [56][57]. 3.4 4. Fundamental Influencing Factors Analysis 3.4.1 Gold: The Driving Force of Key Factor ETFs May Weaken in H2 - **Supply**: In Q1 2025, global gold supply increased slightly, with an increase in mined gold and a decrease in recycled gold. Gold inventories in major exchanges generally increased [60]. - **Demand**: In Q1 2025, global gold demand increased, with a significant increase in investment demand, especially gold ETF inflows. In May, gold ETFs had a net outflow. In H2, economic uncertainties will support gold investment demand, but the driving force of gold ETFs may weaken, while central bank gold purchases will still support the price [65][66]. 3.4.2 Silver: The Medium - Term Logic Is Expected to Return to the Fundamentals - **Supply**: The global silver supply is expected to increase in 2025, and the visible inventory has increased. The US may impose tariffs on key metals, but the inventory has not decreased significantly [74][75]. - **Demand**: The global silver demand is expected to decrease in 2025, with a decline in physical demand in various fields and a slowdown in photovoltaic silver demand. However, investment demand is expected to increase, which will support the silver price to some extent. The silver price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the gold - silver ratio may remain high [80][81][88].