11月7日，A股三大指数均冲高回落。截至收盘，沪指跌0.25%，深成指跌0.36%，创业板指跌0.51%。市 场成交额超2万亿，全市场超3100只个股下跌。 热点板块方面，锂电电解液、磷化工午后继续狂飙，孚日股份、清水源2连板，天际股份、多氟多等多 股涨停。福建板块反复活跃，漳州发展快速涨停，走出4天3板。有机硅板块集体走强，东岳硅材20cm 涨停，合盛硅业涨停。 作为十五五的开局之年，2026年资本市场走向如何？多家机构一致预测，2026年A股将延续慢牛行情。 综合各家观点，慢牛核心逻辑可概括为三大方面： 首先，资产替代逻辑持续深化。随着房地产传统投资属性逐步弱化，其传统投资属性逐步弱化，权益市 场正加速成为居民资产配置的"新主场"。 其次，资本市场改革筑牢制度根基。以新"国九条"为起点的基础制度改革有力提振中国市场的可投资 性；引入中长期资本和构建稳市机制，极大提升中国市场应对风险和波动的能力。 此外，经济转型确定性提升注入增长动能。随着经济从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段，传统动能趋 稳的同时，新技术、新产业加速涌现推动资本开支扩张，叠加中国制造业全球化竞争力持续提升，经济 预期与资产回报率有望触底回升 ...

11月7日，A股三大指数均冲高回落。截至收盘，沪指跌0.25%，深成指跌0.36%，创业板指跌0.51%。市 场成交额超2万亿，全市场超3100只个股下跌。 热点板块方面，锂电电解液、磷化工午后继续狂飙，孚日股份（002083）、清水源（300437）2连板， 天际股份（002759）、多氟多（002407）等多股涨停。福建板块反复活跃，漳州发展（000753）快速涨 停，走出4天3板。有机硅板块集体走强，东岳硅材（300821）20cm涨停，合盛硅业（603260）涨停。 此外，闻泰科技（600745）尾盘直线拉升逼近涨停，最后5分钟成交超12亿。 下跌方面，机器人板块下挫，力星股份（300421）、浙江荣泰（603119）等多股大跌。 值得关注的是，部分业内人士提醒，市场焦点正从情绪驱动转向基本面验证，估值能否进一步抬升将直 接取决于企业盈利的实际兑现。当前2025年三季度A股盈利增速仍处于磨底阶段，市场对于盈利修复的 节奏与弹性仍有疑问。 对此，机构给出差异化但乐观的判断：华泰证券研究所策略首席兼金融工程联席首席何康团队认为，得 益于渐行渐近的产能周期与库存周期拐点，盈利周期有望于明年上半年步入复苏通道 ...

Group 1 - The core theme of the conference is "Sailing Against the Wind, Moving Towards the New," focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, the 14th Five-Year Plan completion, and the 15th Five-Year Plan initiation [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance, modern industrial system construction, and the development of new productive forces, positioning the capital market as a key driver for technological innovation and domestic demand [1][2] - The conference features a main forum and thirteen thematic forums, with participation from over 500 executives from listed companies and experts [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic chief analyst predicts a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with a more proactive macro policy and a potential expansion of the broad deficit scale [3] - The focus on technology remains strong, with AI and domestic substitution being long-term certainties, while domestic consumption is expected to benefit from the emphasis on expanding demand [3] - The strategy chief analyst indicates a shift from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" in the capital market, with a balanced performance across industries in 2026 [4] Group 3 - The fixed income chief analyst recommends focusing on the short end of the bond market, suggesting that rising yields present opportunities while falling yields pose risks [4] - The conference includes discussions on various sectors such as AI computing power, chips, humanoid robots, and new consumption trends, providing a comprehensive analysis of domestic and international economic hotspots [4]

"'平顶'后迎来'盈利修复'慢牛。"韦冀星解释道，即证券化率上行后，资本市场或将不是急坠，而是寻 找新的稳定中枢。证券化率的稳态中枢预计仍将继续上移，基于政策提升资本市场参与度、地产资产替 代、中长期资金三重驱动力，中枢抬升幅度或较为显著。 从市场走势背后的DDM逻辑来看，韦冀星表示，分子端盈利修复 "厂"字型复苏。从领先指标来看，盈 利底或将在2025年年底或2026年年初到达。财政端灵活"动态调整"，财政支出上行但斜率并不高。2026 年地产可以更积极，资产负债表趋稳。 中经记者孙汝祥夏欣北京报道 "2026年资本市场将从'资产重估'进入'盈利修复'，2026年前后更可能是'平顶慢牛'而非'尖顶短牛'。"开 源证券策略首席分析师韦冀星如是前瞻后市。 在11月4日召开的开源证券2026年度策略会上，韦冀星表示，看好科技成长自主可控、PPI改善预期叠加 广谱"反内卷"、出海+全球产业竞争力提升、内需结构转型+消费复苏四个行业的投资机会。 开源证券宏观经济首席分析师何宁亦表示，大类资产配置上，权益方面仍看好科技。 从"慢牛不慢"到"平顶非顶" 韦冀星认为，2026年资本市场将从"资产重估"进入"盈利修复"，20 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the report indicates that the profit growth rate for Q1 2025 turned positive primarily due to a low base effect rather than an inherent improvement in the profit cycle [2][13][21] - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in the longest historical negative growth period, which has resulted in a very low base for comparison [2][15] - The analysis of Q1 2025 shows that overall demand has not yet shown signs of recovery, with revenue growth remaining weak [2][13] Group 2 - The report identifies that the profit growth rate in Q1 2025 exhibited structural differentiation, with significant contributions from the non-bank financial sector, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [3][33] - Non-bank financials contributed 51.4% to the profit growth, followed by non-ferrous metals at 33.4%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 30.4% [3][34] - Excluding these three sectors, the remaining industries continued to experience negative growth, with a decline of -0.61% [3][33] Group 3 - The report predicts that the inherent profit bottom for A-shares is not expected to occur before Q3 2025, considering the repair of corporate balance sheets and the impact of medium to long-term loans on industrial profits [4][36] - The analysis suggests that the difference in year-on-year growth rates between non-financial enterprises and household deposits serves as a leading indicator for A-share earnings performance [4][36][40] - The report also notes that the growth of new medium to long-term loans typically leads to an increase in corporate capital expenditures and profit expansion, although the current trend shows a decline [4][37][39] Group 4 - The report outlines that several industries are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in Q1 2025, excluding base effects, including optical electronics, feed, aquaculture, marine equipment, and others [41][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall confidence of enterprises has not yet recovered, with both capacity and inventory cycles remaining at low levels [26][31] Group 5 - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors such as clothing, automobiles, and food, as well as technology and military sectors [5][47] - The report recommends attention to cost improvement-driven sectors like aquaculture and precious metals, and structural opportunities in overseas markets due to improved trade relations [5][47]