随着2025年进入倒计时，本周以来，多家券商发布2026年度投资展望。 从各券商研判来看，多数券商认为，随着经济基本面逐步恢复，2026年市场有望从估值提升向业绩提升转变， 走出"慢牛"行情。 太平洋证券策略首席分析师张冬冬认为，2026年A股确定性的方向包括有色等上游资源板块、科技（AI是主 线，通信等卫星相关是最强主题），消费则应择机而动。 科技或仍是明年核心主线 整体而言，科技受到券商分析师的一致看好，但青睐的细分方向各有偏好。 "2026年依然首选大科技板块，是本轮牛市的核心主线，其地位不会动摇。"林阳表示，目前人工智能领域发展 日新月异，算力建设与大模型开发已经渐入佳境，下游应用将进入爆发期。机器人、商业航天、可控核聚变、 自动驾驶、深海经济等方向均代表未来技术发展的方向。建议重点关注人工智能及应用、商业航天、可控核聚 变、自动驾驶。 在配置上，科技板块受到分析师一致看好，不少策略首席分析师直言科技将仍是明年核心主线；同时，大消费 板块的关注度也在不断提升。 A股牛市有望继续深入推进 德邦证券首席经济学家程强认为，2026年A股有望继续"慢牛"行情，指数稳定具备充足支撑。预计科技成长仍 是主线，人工 ...

Market Overview - On November 7, A-shares experienced a pullback after an initial rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, Shenzhen Component down 0.36%, and ChiNext down 0.51% [2] - The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,100 stocks declining [2] Sector Performance - Lithium battery electrolyte and phosphorus chemical sectors continued to surge, with stocks like Furui and Qingshuiyuan hitting the daily limit [2] - The Fujian sector showed strong activity, with Zhangzhou Development achieving a rapid limit-up, marking three limit-ups in four days [2] - The organic silicon sector also performed well, with Dongyue Silicon Material and Hesheng Silicon Industry hitting the daily limit [2] - Conversely, the robotics sector faced declines, with stocks like Lixing and Zhejiang Rongtai experiencing significant drops [5] Future Market Outlook - Multiple institutions predict that the A-share market will continue a slow bull trend into 2026, driven by three core factors: the deepening asset replacement logic, capital market reforms, and enhanced economic transformation [7] - The asset replacement logic indicates a shift from real estate to equity markets as the primary investment venue for residents [7] - Capital market reforms, initiated by the new "National Nine Articles," are expected to improve the market's investability and resilience against risks [7] - Economic transformation is anticipated to inject growth momentum, with new technologies and industries emerging to drive capital expenditure [7] Profit Recovery Expectations - Analysts from Huatai Securities expect the profit cycle to enter a recovery phase in the first half of next year, with a focus on companies expanding overseas [8] - Open Source Securities predicts a "factory-shaped" recovery in profit, with the bottom likely occurring between late 2025 and early 2026 [8] - The A-share market is projected to transition from an "asset revaluation" phase to a "profit recovery" phase, characterized by a slow bull trend rather than a sharp rise [8] Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest focusing on four main investment lines: technology growth with self-control (computing power, semiconductors, AI applications), PPI improvement alongside broad anti-involution (non-ferrous metals, chemicals, building materials), global competitiveness enhancement (automobiles, electronics, machinery), and domestic demand transformation with consumption recovery (low-altitude economy, retail, food) [9] - Emphasis is also placed on new energy strategies, particularly in new energy storage, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [9]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is expected to experience a "slow bull" trend in 2026, driven by asset replacement logic, capital market reforms, and enhanced economic transformation dynamics [4]. Market Performance - On November 7, A-share indices experienced a pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.36%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.51%. The total market turnover exceeded 2 trillion, with over 3,100 stocks declining [1]. - Notable sectors included lithium battery electrolyte and phosphorus chemicals, with stocks like Fujian Development and Dongyue Silicon Material hitting the daily limit [1][2]. Sector Analysis - The robotics sector faced declines, with companies like Lixing Co. and Zhejiang Rongtai experiencing significant drops [3]. - The technology sector is highlighted as a key investment area, focusing on self-controlled growth in areas such as computing power, semiconductors, and AI applications [6][7]. Economic Outlook - The capital market is expected to benefit from ongoing reforms, which enhance its investment appeal and resilience against risks [4]. - Analysts predict that the earnings recovery cycle may begin in the first half of 2026, transitioning from an "asset revaluation" phase to a "profit recovery" phase [5]. Investment Strategies - Institutions suggest focusing on four main investment lines: technology growth, PPI improvement, global competitiveness, and domestic consumption recovery [6]. - Emphasis is placed on new energy strategies, particularly in emerging fields like new energy storage, hydrogen energy, and nuclear fusion [7].

Group 1 - The core theme of the conference is "Sailing Against the Wind, Moving Towards the New," focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, the 14th Five-Year Plan completion, and the 15th Five-Year Plan initiation [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance, modern industrial system construction, and the development of new productive forces, positioning the capital market as a key driver for technological innovation and domestic demand [1][2] - The conference features a main forum and thirteen thematic forums, with participation from over 500 executives from listed companies and experts [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic chief analyst predicts a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with a more proactive macro policy and a potential expansion of the broad deficit scale [3] - The focus on technology remains strong, with AI and domestic substitution being long-term certainties, while domestic consumption is expected to benefit from the emphasis on expanding demand [3] - The strategy chief analyst indicates a shift from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" in the capital market, with a balanced performance across industries in 2026 [4] Group 3 - The fixed income chief analyst recommends focusing on the short end of the bond market, suggesting that rising yields present opportunities while falling yields pose risks [4] - The conference includes discussions on various sectors such as AI computing power, chips, humanoid robots, and new consumption trends, providing a comprehensive analysis of domestic and international economic hotspots [4]

Core Viewpoint - The capital market is expected to transition from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" around 2026, likely resulting in a "flat slow bull" market rather than a "sharp short bull" [1][2] Group 1: Market Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience a "flat slow bull" phase post-2025, with a focus on profit recovery as the new stable center for the capital market [2] - The securities ratio is a key indicator for assessing the market's bull or valuation space, with a ratio of 1.1 being a significant threshold [2] - Profit recovery is expected to follow a "factory-shaped" recovery pattern, with earnings bottoming out by the end of 2025 or early 2026 [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Key investment opportunities are identified in sectors such as technology growth, PPI improvement, anti-involution trends, global competitiveness, and domestic consumption recovery [3][5] - The "technology first" theme is highlighted as a dominant trend in the current bull market, with a focus on relative profitability advantages and global semiconductor cycles [3] - The transition from valuation-driven investments to factor-based investments is emphasized, with important factors including marginal changes in profit growth, revenue growth, and return on equity [3] Group 3: Economic Policy and Consumer Trends - The macroeconomic policy is expected to be more proactive, with moderate monetary easing and potential increases in the broad deficit scale [6] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is seen as crucial for stimulating domestic demand and consumption, particularly in services and rural areas [5][6] - Supply-side adjustments are necessary, including enhancing service supply and addressing excess capacity through anti-involution measures [7]

Group 1 - The core point of the report indicates that the profit growth rate for Q1 2025 turned positive primarily due to a low base effect rather than an inherent improvement in the profit cycle [2][13][21] - The report highlights that the A-share market is currently in the longest historical negative growth period, which has resulted in a very low base for comparison [2][15] - The analysis of Q1 2025 shows that overall demand has not yet shown signs of recovery, with revenue growth remaining weak [2][13] Group 2 - The report identifies that the profit growth rate in Q1 2025 exhibited structural differentiation, with significant contributions from the non-bank financial sector, non-ferrous metals, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sectors [3][33] - Non-bank financials contributed 51.4% to the profit growth, followed by non-ferrous metals at 33.4%, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery at 30.4% [3][34] - Excluding these three sectors, the remaining industries continued to experience negative growth, with a decline of -0.61% [3][33] Group 3 - The report predicts that the inherent profit bottom for A-shares is not expected to occur before Q3 2025, considering the repair of corporate balance sheets and the impact of medium to long-term loans on industrial profits [4][36] - The analysis suggests that the difference in year-on-year growth rates between non-financial enterprises and household deposits serves as a leading indicator for A-share earnings performance [4][36][40] - The report also notes that the growth of new medium to long-term loans typically leads to an increase in corporate capital expenditures and profit expansion, although the current trend shows a decline [4][37][39] Group 4 - The report outlines that several industries are expected to maintain a growth rate of over 20% in Q1 2025, excluding base effects, including optical electronics, feed, aquaculture, marine equipment, and others [41][42] - The report emphasizes that the overall confidence of enterprises has not yet recovered, with both capacity and inventory cycles remaining at low levels [26][31] Group 5 - The investment strategy suggests focusing on domestic consumption sectors such as clothing, automobiles, and food, as well as technology and military sectors [5][47] - The report recommends attention to cost improvement-driven sectors like aquaculture and precious metals, and structural opportunities in overseas markets due to improved trade relations [5][47]