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专访中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊:新“新三样”领衔,构筑中国产业发展新基座
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-30 23:13
全球科技竞争日趋激烈,中国产业升级进入关键阶段。机器人、人工智能、创新药正式接棒"新三 样"(新能源汽车、锂电池、光伏产品),成为新"新三样"。这并非简单的产业替换,而是中国经济 从"要素扩张"向"创新驱动"的转型——当人口红利消退、传统路径回报递减、"中等技术陷阱"风险凸 显,唯有重塑技术进步与增长的转化机制,才能拓宽高质量发展空间。 新"新三样"的核心突破,在于将竞争焦点从"做不做、做多少"转向"技术路径定义权与标准制定权"。人 工智能通过算法与算力叠加,让研发成本不再线性依赖投入;机器人推动制造体系从人力密集向系统智 能升级,实现效率持续提升;创新药以长期研发将知识转化为高附加值成果。三者共同指向一个结果: 增长源于效率跃迁,而非要素堆叠。 新"新三样"的核心突破,在于将竞争焦点从"做不做、做多少"转向"技术路径定义权与标准制定权"。 21世纪经济报道记者专访中国银河证券首席经济学家、研究院院长、中国银河国际副行政总裁章俊,深 度解析新"新三样"如何成为未来产业的"技术底座"。 产业升级逻辑之变,从"做多少"转向"谁定义" 面。在高端减速器、精密传感器、核心控制器、底层算力平台及通用算法等关键环节,对外 ...
沪指九连阳!但一个危险信号已悄然出现
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-29 11:10
黄金价格突破4500美元/盎司,伦铜逼近13000美元/吨,白银更是盘中冲破82美元/盎司,创下历史新 高。国内市场,沪铜主力合约也一举突破10万元/吨大关。这绝非偶然现象。 今天的市场,用一个词来形容就是"冰火两重天"。沪指在银行、石油石化等权重股的支撑下,顽强收红 0.04%,报收3965.28点,强势录得"九连阳"。但与此同时,深成指下跌0.49%,创业板指跌幅更大,达 到0.66%,呈现出鲜明的沪强深弱格局。 成交量方面,两市合计成交约2.16万亿元,较前一交易日略有萎缩,但仍稳稳站在2万亿以上的高位。 这表明市场交投依然活跃,但资金的选择方向正在发生显著变化。 资金调仓换股的意图,在板块涨跌上体现得淋漓尽致。 领涨的板块极具代表性:银行(+1.03%)、石油石化(+1.48%)、国防军工(+1.43%)。这背后明显 是两条主线:一条是低估值、高分红的防御性板块(银行、石油),另一条是政策确定性强的安全主线 (军工)。在年末时段与指数高位震荡的关口,部分资金的态度偏向"求稳"。 而另一边,前期的一些热门赛道则明显承压。有色金属板块整体下跌1.95%,电力设备、医药生物、食 品饮料也表现不佳。这清晰地反 ...
开源证券2026年度策略会:AI和国产替代有长期确定性
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-11-05 06:22
Group 1 - The core theme of the conference is "Sailing Against the Wind, Moving Towards the New," focusing on the macroeconomic outlook, the 14th Five-Year Plan completion, and the 15th Five-Year Plan initiation [1] - The 15th Five-Year Plan emphasizes high-level technological self-reliance, modern industrial system construction, and the development of new productive forces, positioning the capital market as a key driver for technological innovation and domestic demand [1][2] - The conference features a main forum and thirteen thematic forums, with participation from over 500 executives from listed companies and experts [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic chief analyst predicts a GDP growth target of around 5% for 2026, with a more proactive macro policy and a potential expansion of the broad deficit scale [3] - The focus on technology remains strong, with AI and domestic substitution being long-term certainties, while domestic consumption is expected to benefit from the emphasis on expanding demand [3] - The strategy chief analyst indicates a shift from "asset revaluation" to "profit recovery" in the capital market, with a balanced performance across industries in 2026 [4] Group 3 - The fixed income chief analyst recommends focusing on the short end of the bond market, suggesting that rising yields present opportunities while falling yields pose risks [4] - The conference includes discussions on various sectors such as AI computing power, chips, humanoid robots, and new consumption trends, providing a comprehensive analysis of domestic and international economic hotspots [4]
“五年规划”,更加注重统筹发展和安全
Xin Jing Bao· 2025-10-27 08:06
Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is crucial for China to embark on a new journey towards building a modern socialist country and achieving the second centenary goal, emphasizing the integration of development and security as a strategic foundation [1][2]. Group 1: Development and Security - Development and security are interdependent; development provides the material basis for security, while security is a prerequisite for sustainable development [1][2]. - The current global landscape is characterized by significant changes, including rising unilateralism and geopolitical risks, necessitating a heightened awareness of potential challenges [1][2]. Group 2: Key Areas of Focus - Economic security is fundamental, requiring measures to ensure food security, energy resource supply, and the prevention of systemic financial risks [2]. - Technological self-reliance is essential for maintaining development autonomy, addressing critical challenges, and managing emerging risks related to technology ethics and data security [2]. - Social stability is vital for reform and development, necessitating improvements in public safety and health networks [2]. - Ecological security is crucial for sustainable development, advocating for a green development path [2]. Group 3: Systematic Approach - A comprehensive system is needed to ensure the integration of development and security, including a robust legal framework and enhanced risk assessment mechanisms [2]. - Strengthening national security education is important to build a resilient public defense against security threats [2][3].
高圆圆同款座驾 2026款腾势N9将于9月17日上市
Qi Lu Wan Bao· 2025-09-10 10:00
Group 1 - The core point of the article is the upcoming launch of the 2026 Tengshi N9, a flagship SUV from Tengshi Automobile, scheduled for September 17, featuring actress Gao Yuanyuan as the brand ambassador [1][12] - The new model will introduce innovative dual-tone colors, including Purple Zhuang Gold and Red Elegant Gold, enhancing its aesthetic appeal [1][2][4][5] - The 2026 Tengshi N9 emphasizes safety with advanced features such as the Yisanfang system, capable of high-speed evasive maneuvers and maintaining stability during emergencies [6][12] Group 2 - The vehicle is equipped with the "Tian Shen Zhi Yan B - Auxiliary Driving Laser Version," providing comprehensive urban navigation capabilities, making driving more enjoyable [8] - The unique three-fold seat design offers over a hundred seating combinations, catering to diverse user needs and preferences for large SUVs [10] - The 2026 Tengshi N9 aims to attract high-end users with its strong product capabilities, combining safety, intelligent technology, and luxury experience [12]
突然拉升!20cm涨停!
中国基金报· 2025-06-23 04:57
Core Viewpoint - The coal sector experienced a significant rise in the A-share market, with various stocks showing notable gains, indicating a potential recovery in coal prices due to supply constraints and seasonal demand increases [9][10]. Market Overview - As of June 23, the A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.15% and the Shenzhen Component down by 0.16% [2]. - The total market turnover was 683.87 billion CNY, slightly lower than the previous day, with 3,657 stocks rising and 1,577 falling [3]. Sector Performance - The coal, petrochemical, defense, and non-ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while consumer stocks, including liquor and gaming, faced declines [3][4]. - The coal sector specifically saw stocks like Baotailong, Shaanxi Black Cat, and China Coal Energy among the top gainers [9]. Shipping and Port Sector - The port and shipping sectors collectively surged, with stocks such as Ningbo Shipping and Ningbo Ocean reaching their daily limits [13]. - The global shipping market reacted to recent geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning the Strait of Hormuz, leading to increased shipping rates [15]. Defense Sector - The defense and military sector also saw gains, with stocks like Changcheng Military Industry and Aerospace Development hitting their limits [10]. - The Ministry of National Security emphasized the importance of technological security in national security, which may bolster investments in the defense sector [10]. Key Stock Movements - Notable stock performances included Huahong Semiconductor rising by 7.02% and SMIC increasing by 4.94% [7]. - In the coal sector, Baotailong rose by 4.78%, while Shaanxi Black Cat increased by 4.40% [9].
美国与阿联酋最终敲定科技框架协议。双方接受关于科技安全承诺方面的要求。
news flash· 2025-05-15 15:12
Group 1 - The United States and the United Arab Emirates have finalized a technology framework agreement [1] - Both parties have accepted requirements regarding commitments to technology security [1]
数字经济引领新机遇,数字经济ETF(560800)涨近1%
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 02:53
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the strategic importance of developing the digital economy for China's new development pattern and modern economic system, highlighting its role in enhancing national competitiveness amid global trade changes and technology security concerns [1][2][3] - The China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index (931582) has shown a positive performance, with a 0.99% increase as of May 12, 2025, and notable gains in constituent stocks such as Jingsheng Electronics (3.83%) and Unisoc (3.82%) [1][2] - The Digital Economy ETF (560800) closely tracks the China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index and reported a 0.91% increase, with a latest price of 0.77 yuan and a trading volume of 4.1481 million yuan [1][2] Group 2 - As of April 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the China Securities Digital Economy Theme Index account for 51.5% of the index, with notable companies including Dongfang Caifu (8.12%) and SMIC (6.58%) [2][4] - The index includes companies involved in digital economy infrastructure and high digitalization applications, reflecting the overall performance of digital economy-related stocks [2][3]
雷军卸任?小米汽车将“智驾”改名“辅助驾驶”,网友:扛不住了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-05 10:51
Core Viewpoint - Lei Jun's resignation as the executive director of Xiaomi marks a significant shift in the company's internal structure and strategy, raising concerns among fans about the future direction of the brand [1][4][15]. Group 1: Reasons Behind Lei Jun's Resignation - Lei Jun's departure from the role of executive director is seen as a move to focus more on strategic issues, particularly concerning product quality and safety in Xiaomi's core businesses, including smartphones and automobiles [8][10]. - The resignation is interpreted as a response to public criticism regarding Lei Jun's excessive involvement in operations, especially following the recent controversy surrounding the Xiaomi SU7 car fire incident [10][12]. - This change indicates Xiaomi's recognition that the company's future should not rely solely on the influence of a single individual, suggesting a shift towards a more collaborative and institutional governance model [14][15]. Group 2: Changes in Marketing Strategy - Xiaomi has rebranded its "smart driving" feature to "assisted driving," reflecting a strategic shift to downplay previous high-profile marketing efforts following the car fire incident, which damaged public trust in the brand [17][21]. - The company is transitioning from a marketing approach heavily reliant on Lei Jun's personal brand to a more team-oriented and product-focused strategy, indicating a move towards a professional image rather than one driven by emotional appeal [23][25]. - This shift is seen as a necessary evolution for the company as it grows, aiming to mitigate risks associated with over-dependence on a single figure for brand identity and public perception [25][27]. Group 3: Trust Recovery Challenges - The SU7 car fire incident, which resulted in three fatalities, has created a severe trust crisis for Xiaomi, with the true cause of the accident still undisclosed and the company's response deemed insufficient [29][31]. - Public dissatisfaction has grown due to the lack of clear communication regarding the accident's details, leading to suspicions of potential suppression of information or private settlements [33]. - Unanswered questions regarding the vehicle's safety features and emergency response mechanisms have left consumers with lingering doubts about Xiaomi's commitment to safety, posing a long-term challenge for the brand's recovery [35][37].
构建有韧性的科研体系
Ke Ji Ri Bao· 2025-04-28 01:19
Core Viewpoint - The construction of a resilient scientific research system is essential for ensuring national technological security and achieving self-reliance in science and technology, especially in the context of increasing global technological competition and geopolitical tensions [3][8]. Group 1: Challenges to the Research System - The scientific research system faces multiple challenges, including accelerated technological iteration, interdisciplinary collaboration risks, sudden public events, and uneven resource distribution [2][4]. - The rapid development of technology brings ethical and regulatory issues, as well as disruptive changes in research paradigms, posing adaptability challenges to traditional research organizational models [2][3]. Group 2: Necessity for a Resilient Research System - A resilient research system is particularly necessary for China due to increasing international competition and sanctions from developed countries, which hinder international research cooperation and access to research facilities [3][4]. - The lack of an independent and self-sufficient research ecosystem in China, along with limited international academic discourse power and weak foundational research, necessitates the establishment of a resilient research system [3][4]. Group 3: Strategies to Enhance Resilience - Enhancing the resilience of the research system should focus on four aspects: technological resilience, institutional resilience, organizational resilience, and social resilience [4][5]. - Strengthening technological resilience involves improving independent innovation capabilities and developing backup plans for critical technologies to mitigate risks from potential technological blockades [4][5]. - Institutional resilience requires continuous evolution and improvement of existing systems to enhance risk resistance, including the establishment of flexible legal frameworks and risk assessment mechanisms [5][6]. - Organizational resilience can be improved by increasing flexibility in resource allocation and fostering collaboration among various research entities to optimize strategies and share resources [6][7]. - Social resilience emphasizes the importance of public engagement and support for scientific research, enhancing scientific literacy, and fostering a stable social environment for technological development [7][8].