Group 1 - The article discusses a macro quantitative framework that combines economic, liquidity, credit, and inflation factors for asset allocation and industry/style configuration [1][3] - The framework has been adjusted based on the changing mapping of macro variables to assets, with a focus on economic and liquidity indicators [1][5] - The performance of aggressive portfolios since 2013 shows an annualized return of approximately 8.5%, with a 0.6% excess return compared to the benchmark [3][5] Group 2 - The article highlights the impact of macroeconomic conditions on industry and style configurations, incorporating credit sensitivity into the analysis [5][7] - The macro-sensitive industry configuration has shown varying performance, with a notable decline since 2022, indicating the need for adjustments in selection criteria [7][10] - The article emphasizes the importance of market expectations in influencing macroeconomic indicators and their relationship with asset performance [13][18] Group 3 - The Factor Mimicking model is introduced to capture market expectations regarding macro variables, using a refined stock pool for better representation [19][20] - The construction of the Factor Mimicking portfolio aims to reflect the market's implicit views on economic, liquidity, inflation, and credit variables [19][23] - The article discusses the need for additional micro mappings to enhance the representation of macro variables, particularly in relation to corporate earnings and valuations [28][30] Group 4 - The article outlines the adjustments made to the macro variables based on market expectations, focusing on economic, liquidity, and credit dimensions [34][36] - The revised indicators are expected to improve asset allocation strategies, particularly in the context of equity markets [39][40] - The performance of the revised industry and style configurations indicates a positive impact from incorporating market expectations into the analysis [46][54]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of combining macro quantification with factor momentum to select resonant factors, particularly focusing on growth factors while considering market conditions [1][4] - Current macro indicators show economic decline, slightly loose liquidity, and improving credit indicators, leading to a correction in the direction of economic downturn and tight liquidity [3][4] - The article identifies that the stock pools are still biased towards growth factors, especially in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices, while the CSI 500 leans more towards fundamental factors [4][5] Group 2 - Economic leading indicators suggest a potential slight increase after reaching a short-term bottom in August 2025, despite recent declines in PMI and new orders [6][8] - Various leading indicators are analyzed, indicating that many are in a downward cycle, with expectations for some to reach their bottom by early 2026 [9][10] - The liquidity environment is assessed as slightly loose, with interest rates remaining stable and monetary supply indicators suggesting a continuation of this trend [12][14] Group 3 - Credit indicators are generally weak, but the overall credit environment remains positive, with some signs of recovery in recent months [15][16] - The article recommends increasing stock allocations due to improving equity trends, while reducing allocations in other asset classes [16][17] - The focus remains on liquidity as the most significant variable affecting market dynamics, with credit and inflation also being monitored [18][20] Group 4 - The article suggests industry selection based on economic sensitivity and credit sensitivity, highlighting sectors that are less sensitive to economic downturns but more responsive to credit conditions [20][21] - Industries identified as having high growth potential include electronics, media, and beauty care, which are less affected by economic fluctuations [20][21]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that growth has become a resonant factor in the current economic environment, with a focus on selecting factors that are insensitive to economic conditions but sensitive to credit [2][7][9] - The report suggests that the current economic indicators are weak, leading to a preference for growth-oriented stocks in the investment strategy, particularly in the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 indices [2][9][10] - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a potential short-term recovery in economic indicators, with a forecasted slight increase in the economic leading indicators in August 2025 [12][13][14] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is described as relatively stable, with interest rates showing slight increases but remaining below historical averages, indicating a slightly loose liquidity condition [19][20][22] - Credit indicators are noted to be weak, with a decline in credit volume and structure, although the overall credit indicators remain positive [23][24] - The report advocates for an increase in stock allocation, reflecting a positive trend in equity markets, while reducing allocations in other asset classes [2][24][25] Group 3 - The report identifies liquidity as the primary focus of market attention, especially following recent market movements driven by liquidity conditions [26][27] - In terms of industry selection, the report recommends focusing on sectors that are less sensitive to economic fluctuations but more responsive to credit conditions, highlighting industries with growth attributes [4][31][28] - The report lists specific industries with high scores for economic insensitivity and credit sensitivity, including electronics, media, and beauty care, indicating a strategic focus on growth-oriented sectors [28][31]

2025 年 07 月 01 日 持续配置反转因子 —— 量化资产配置月报 202507 - 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 (8621)23297818× shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 持续配置反转因子。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济回落、流动性略偏松，信用指标转好， 微观映射中经济（盈利预期）好转回到中等，信用转好，微观流动性偏紧，因此仅流动性 触发修正，修正后的方向为经济下行、流动性偏紧而信用转好，修正后的方向与上期维持 一致；由于流动性与信用产生明显背离，我们主要按照对经济不敏感、对信用敏感来选择 得分前三的因子，各股票池配置风格仍偏向成长，300、500 的因子选择与上期保持一致， 无共振因子，中证 1000 的因子选择中增加了短期反转因子，低波动率、短期反转 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the continued significance of low volatility factors as resonance factors in investment strategies, integrating macroeconomic quantitative insights with factor momentum [1][2] - The analysis indicates that the economic recovery is ongoing, liquidity is returning to a neutral-tight state, and credit indicators are improving, with no need for adjustments based on micro mappings [1][2] - The stock pool configurations for various indices such as CSI 300 and CSI 1000 show a consistent preference for low volatility and growth factors, with value factors also being selected in the CSI 500 index [2] Group 2 - Economic leading indicators are positioned in the late stage of an upward trend, with expectations of reaching a peak by June 2025 and entering a downward cycle by December 2025 [3][8] - Specific indicators such as PMI and fixed asset investment are showing positive trends, suggesting continued economic growth in the near term [3][9] - The liquidity environment is tightening, with short-term interest rates rising above their moving averages, indicating a shift towards a tighter monetary policy [11][15] Group 3 - Credit indicators have shown improvement, with social financing stock increasing for two consecutive months, reflecting a more favorable credit environment [16][18] - The asset allocation strategy suggests reducing bond and US stock positions while increasing allocations in A-shares and commodities, reflecting a bullish outlook on domestic markets [18][22] - The focus on liquidity as a key variable driving market performance indicates that fluctuations in liquidity will significantly impact stock volatility and overall market dynamics [19][22]