冥冥之中，自有天命。 有些传闻只是传闻，很多传闻会成真，当传闻成真的时候，却也不意外。 01 1月8日，万科公告，郁亮到龄辞任万科执行副总裁。 郁亮生于1965年，今年61岁，今年是加入万科的第36年。以北大毕业生的光鲜履历南下，第一站是深圳 外贸集团，此后离职加入万科。巧合的是，原万科董事长辛杰从沈阳工业大学毕业南下，在深圳的第一 站，也是深圳外贸集团。 郁亮后来加入万科，从证券事务部起，直至接班王石，先后出任CEO、董事局主席，又在中年瘦身成 功，成为健康运动达人，职场成就与个人魅力兼具，一时为人追捧，成为"个人奋斗成为精英"的最好诠 释。 关于此番辞任，我们无意推测，其实也无须推测。很多答案就在谜题本身之中。 郁亮的成长经历，已大为人所熟知，此时回顾，没有太大意义。倒是他在万科走向前台，尤其是在历经 万宝之争王石退任接获权杖之后，万科经营战略和风格发生的变化值得思考。 郁亮主政万科期间，销售规模、资产规模快速增长，虽然"第一"被碧桂园、恒大超越，但在企业地位 上，仍是老大；同样是在他主政期间，万科资本运作、资产交易的数量和规模明显增大，有多宗堪 称"漂亮"的资产买卖。正是在此期间，跟投制、"合伙人制"都 ...

2026 年 01 月 04 日 经济指标出现转弱，PPI 关注度维持 最高 ——量化资产配置月报 202601 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 量 化 策 略 证 券 研 究 报 告 ⚫ 提升红利、低波配置。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现转弱、流动性略偏松，信用指 标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）继续为正但强度偏弱、未触发修正，流动性也未触 发修正，信用继续修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向继续为经济偏弱、流动性偏松和信 用收缩。本期我们继续主要按照对经济不敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三的因子，宏 观部分选择以盈利、红利为主，红利得分明显提高；沪深 300 中盈利为共振因子，中证 500、中证 1000 中低波都成为共振因子。 ⚫ 大类资产配置观点：黄金配置比例维持高位。结合当前指标，修正后目前经济偏弱、流动 性 ...

2025 年 12 月 01 日 大股票池配置仍偏价值，PPI 关注度 升至最高 ——量化资产配置月报 202512 相关研究 - 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 ⚫ 大股票池配置仍偏价值。按照定量指标的结果，目前经济出现回升、流动性略偏紧，信用 指标略好，微观映射中经济（盈利预期）继续向上但强度未触发修正，而流动性、信用都 修正为偏弱，因此宏观各维度的方向为经济好转、流动性偏弱和信用收缩。本期我们主要 按照对经济敏感、对信用不敏感来选择得分前三的因子，成长的宏观得分偏低，宏观部分 选择以价值、低波为主；沪深 300、中证 500 中价值都为共振因子，中证 500 中不再配 置成长，而中证 1000 成长得分仍靠前。 ⚫ ...

Core Viewpoint - China's issuance of $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong attracted overwhelming interest, with subscription amounts reaching $118.2 billion, resulting in a subscription ratio of 30 times, highlighting a significant shift in global capital preferences towards Chinese bonds over U.S. Treasuries [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Reaction - The subscription amount for China's bonds was $118.2 billion against a $4 billion issuance, indicating a staggering demand with a 29-fold oversubscription [3][5] - In contrast, U.S. Treasury bonds saw a subscription ratio of only 2.6 times, reflecting a stark decline in investor confidence in U.S. debt [1][3] Group 2: Creditworthiness and Investor Confidence - Investors are drawn to Chinese bonds not due to higher interest rates but because of China's strong credit backing, supported by $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and a stable trade surplus [5][10] - China's debt repayment capability is perceived as more stable compared to many countries, enhancing the attractiveness of its bonds as a safe investment [5][10] Group 3: Strategic Objectives of Bond Issuance - The primary goal of issuing these bonds is to establish a "capital safe haven" alternative to U.S. Treasuries, challenging the long-held belief that U.S. assets are the safest [7][9] - This issuance serves as a strategic move to diversify global financial options and reduce reliance on U.S. dollar assets [7][9] Group 4: Implications for U.S. Financial Dominance - The influx of capital into Chinese bonds may force the U.S. to raise its borrowing costs, as it competes for limited global capital [14][16] - The Federal Reserve's policy-making space is constrained, complicating its ability to manage inflation and economic slowdown due to the competitive pressure from Chinese bonds [14][16] Group 5: Long-term Financial Landscape Changes - The current dynamics suggest a potential decline in U.S. financial hegemony, as investor confidence shifts towards Chinese bonds, reminiscent of historical shifts in global currency dominance [16][18] - China's proactive integration into the global financial system through bond issuance is aimed at enhancing its international credibility and providing a viable alternative for global capital [18][20]

Core Insights - The essence of a favorable business environment lies in trust and credibility rather than short-term financial gains, emphasizing the importance of stable and reliable governance to attract investment and stimulate innovation [1][2] - Government credibility acts as a guiding star for the business environment, where businesses now prioritize trust over temporary benefits, focusing on policy stability, transparency, fairness, and commitment fulfillment [1] - A robust credit system enhances market efficiency, allowing businesses to simplify processes and consumers to engage confidently, ultimately leading to a more prosperous economic environment [2] Group 1 - Trust is a fundamental infrastructure in the business environment, akin to air, which is essential yet often overlooked [1] - Government must adhere to a credit baseline of "words must be followed by actions" to build trust with enterprises, ensuring timely policy implementation and legal protection of business rights [2] - The market's trust serves as a lubricant for a continuously improving business environment, where a lack of trust can increase transaction costs and suppress consumer willingness [2] Group 2 - The most valuable resource in the journey towards high-quality development is trust, which should be integrated into all aspects of governance, market, and society [2] - A well-established credit system allows for streamlined approval processes and quick access to loans for businesses, enhancing overall market efficiency [2] - Unlike short-term subsidies or resource inputs, a trust-based environment is more effective in retaining businesses and stimulating demand, acting as a powerful catalyst for economic growth [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the economic leading indicators are showing signs of a slight recovery, with liquidity remaining slightly loose and credit indicators improving [3][12][19] - The economic forecast model suggests that October 2025 is at a turning point, with expectations for a slight upward trend over the next three months before entering a plateau [12][13] - The report highlights that the focus of the market is shifting towards economic indicators, surpassing liquidity concerns, with increased attention on economic and PPI-related factors [26][27] Group 2 - The liquidity environment is characterized by rising interest rates, with long-term rates exceeding the average, while overall liquidity remains slightly loose due to positive monetary supply signals [19][22] - Credit indicators have shown a slight positive trend, although the overall credit volume and structure remain low, indicating a mixed outlook for credit conditions [23][24] - The asset allocation perspective suggests a high allocation to gold due to strong momentum, while equity allocations have been slightly reduced [24][25] Group 3 - The industry selection is leaning towards sectors that are sensitive to economic conditions but less sensitive to liquidity, with a notable increase in defensive and consumer attributes [28][29] - The report identifies specific industries with the highest sensitivity to economic changes, including utilities and coal, while also highlighting sectors like media and consumer electronics for credit sensitivity [28][29] - The overall balance in industry selection reflects a decline in growth attributes, emphasizing a more defensive investment strategy [29]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of high-quality market regulation during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, outlining several key tasks for market regulation development [1]. Group 1: Strengthening Domestic Market - The focus is on promoting a robust domestic market by improving regulatory frameworks, eliminating local protectionism, and addressing low-quality competition among enterprises [2]. Group 2: Quality Improvement Initiatives - There is a call for practical advancement in building a quality-driven nation, which includes initiatives for enhancing enterprise quality, implementing quality supply chains, and establishing high-level quality infrastructure [3]. Group 3: Standardization Development - The article highlights the need for deepening national standardization reforms, improving the national standard system, and enhancing local standard management to elevate the level of standard supply [4]. Group 4: Regulatory Enhancement - It stresses the importance of improving legal, credit, and smart regulatory frameworks, advancing legal regulation, enhancing credit regulation efficiency, and accelerating the development of smart regulation [5]. Group 5: Safety Regulation Strengthening - The article discusses the enhancement of safety regulation capabilities for food, pharmaceuticals, industrial products, and special equipment, emphasizing comprehensive safety oversight across the entire food supply chain [6]. Group 6: Platform Economy Regulation - There is a need to optimize the regularization of platform economies by refining regulatory rules, establishing a responsibility system for ongoing regulation, and strengthening integrated online and offline oversight [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of a fair and open business environment, highlighting how even small businesses can thrive when given equal opportunities, as demonstrated by a local barbecue shop sponsoring a major sports event [1][2]. Group 1: Business Environment - The sponsorship of a local barbecue shop in a major sports event reflects a city's commitment to maintaining a fair business environment, treating all business entities equally regardless of their size or reputation [2]. - The event organizers' decision to include a small business as a sponsor showcases an open-minded approach that fosters healthy development for all business entities [2]. - A good business environment is characterized by fairness and respect for commitments, which ultimately enhances a city's long-term competitiveness [1][2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The increasing commercial value of the "苏超" event has led to higher sponsorship fees, yet the organizers maintained their commitment to include the small barbecue shop, demonstrating the value of trust and integrity in business dealings [2]. - The article suggests that prioritizing larger businesses over smaller ones can harm government credibility and hinder long-term economic development [2]. - Trust and integrity in business practices are essential for winning the long-term confidence of business entities, which is crucial for sustainable economic growth [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the acceleration of a "positive cycle" in credit improvement, financial service optimization, and social value creation, driven by the digital economy, which is creating value for deeper financial service transformation and broader economic environment optimization [1][30] Group 2 - The formula "Money + Credit = Total Expenditure" illustrates that total expenditure is a driving force of the economy, highlighting the importance of credit in value creation [4] - The construction of a credit system is crucial as the entire capital market and modern financial system are built on commercial and banking credit, which supports high-quality development in the financial industry and the broader economy [5] Group 3 - Innovations in credit collection and usage are key for market participants to break through and enhance the quality and efficiency of financial services [6] - As of September 2023, the number of individuals recorded in China's financial credit information database has increased to 1.164 billion, up from 520 million in 2006 [6] Group 4 - The consumer finance industry has significantly contributed to reducing credit "white households" and filling gaps in the credit market, with the number of customers served by consumer finance companies exceeding 300 million by the end of 2022, a year-on-year increase of 18.4% [7] - The development of big data and artificial intelligence technologies has enhanced the value of credit in risk control, operations, and services [8] Group 5 - The rise of consumer finance is closely linked to the construction of a credit society, as evidenced by the development history of China's consumer finance industry [11] - Consumer finance companies have filled market gaps by providing financial services to individuals who were previously underserved due to inadequate credit information [12] Group 6 - The consumer finance sector is now in a period of intense competition, facing challenges such as uneven supply and demand, with traditional financial institutions becoming more conservative in their lending practices [14][15] - The key to addressing these challenges lies in elevating product and operational strategies to provide customers with opportunities for "self-certification" [17] Group 7 - The "self-service" system developed by companies like Zhaolian is a representative solution that allows customers to manage their credit needs and improve their experience [19][21] - The "self-service" model is seen as a higher form of service that redefines products and services around customer needs [22] Group 8 - The concept of "financial health" has been introduced to assess how well individuals manage their finances, which aligns with the evolving needs of the Chinese market [26][27] - Consumer finance companies are expected to recalibrate their market positioning in response to regulatory changes and the evolving landscape of financial services [28] Group 9 - The value of credit will become more pronounced as financial institutions deepen their understanding of customers, leading to improved service precision and depth [29] - The mutual commitment between financial institutions and customers to uphold credit expectations fosters a stronger relationship, particularly benefiting new citizens and those contributing to rural revitalization [30]

Core Viewpoint - The development of a financial system with Chinese characteristics is a product of historical progress since the founding of New China, particularly since the reform and opening up, integrating Marxist financial theory with contemporary Chinese realities and traditional culture [3][4]. Group 1: Cultural Support for Financial Development - The financial development path requires strong cultural support and nourishment from Chinese culture, which is considered the soul of the nation [3][7]. - Emphasizing honesty and trustworthiness is crucial, as credit is a core element of the financial industry, impacting the efficiency of the financial system [4][6]. Group 2: Ethical Perspectives in Finance - A correct view of righteousness and profit is essential, balancing functionality and profitability in financial services [5][6]. - The financial system should focus on providing high-quality services in areas such as technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance, which may not yield immediate economic benefits but are vital for long-term development [6][7]. Group 3: Strategic Goals and Implementation - The path of financial development with Chinese characteristics is innovative and rooted in national conditions, requiring both hard and soft power enhancements [7]. - The goal is to build a strong financial nation, maintaining strategic determination and practical efforts to achieve high-quality financial development that supports national rejuvenation [7].