近日，美国总统特朗普宣布，从8月1日起将对来自日本、韩国等14个国家的进口产品征收25%至40%的关税。他在"真实社交"网站上发布了写给这些国家领 导人的信函，阐述了征税理由，并表示新关税将不包括其他行业关税。 在这些几乎完全相同的信中，特朗普警告称，如果相关国家试图提高关税作为回应，美国将在此次税率基础上再提高同等额度的关税。同时，如果这些国家 或其企业在美国境内生产产品，则不会被征收关税。若这些国家向美国开放市场并消除贸易壁垒，美国可能会调整关税税率，具体取决于两国之间的关系。 上述特朗普新的关税政策，在笔者看来，其本质是政治意志对市场规律的强制扭曲，是对国际贸易制度和规则体系的肆意践踏，是彻底的贸易保护主义范式 下的"负和博弈"。 内在动机： 美国利益主导下的政治经济和战略逻辑 理论上，特朗普的关税政策是美国霸权逻辑的必然产物；实践上，则是美国利益主导下的政治、经济和战略逻辑。 笔者认为，政治逻辑在于转移国内矛盾，巩固民意基础。特朗普的核心支持者主要是蓝领和传统产业从业者，其关税政策被包装为"保护美国工人"的标签。 美国经济疲软、通胀高企、市场预期减弱是美国经济的内在压力，关税政策还被用来转移公众对国内 ...

全球航运业面临的挑战远不止关税。地缘政治冲突正推高保险成本。战争风险保险费率均有不同程度上涨，以色 列港口相关费率更飙升至0.7%，进一步增加了运营成本。 库存高企是当前供应链的另一大特点。一季度抢货潮使美国零售商库存充足，虽有所消耗，但6月美国物流经理指 数（LMI）升至近两年高位，主要因库存水平上升。专家认为，在现有库存和关税压力下，未来进口规模可能低 于预期。这直接导致海运需求疲软，运价大幅下跌。德鲁里数据显示，集装箱运费环比下跌5.7%，较峰值跌超 20%，反映了美国进口需求的持续疲软。 航运巨头马士基也坦言，政策透明度下降和不断变化的截止日期正影响企业运输决策，其平均关税负担约为 21%。柯灵芸预计，短期内政策不确定性将导致航运量波动，中期则可能在较低水平稳定。 【环球网财经综合报道】近期，美国总统明确将"对等关税"暂缓期延长至8月1日，并称这一日期"不会再变"。这 一表态背后，美国关税政策的反复无常正持续给全球航运业和供应链带来严峻考验。 继4月宣布关税计划引发企业抢先进口潮后，此次暂缓期的延长并未催生新一轮进口高峰。美国洛杉矶港数据显 示，5月TEU量同比下降5%，预计7月同比将降27%，反映出 ...

马士基称，当前该公司对所有进入美国的进口商品支付的有效平均关税率大约为21%。 据新华社报道，继下令延长"对等关税"90天暂缓期至8月1日后，美国总统特朗普8日称，这一日期"不会 再变"。 美国企业在4月特朗普政府宣布关税前抢先囤货，导致进口激增。此次暂缓期再次延长，尽管贸易协议 进展有限，但市场预计不会重现类似的进口高峰。 美国洛杉矶港执行董事塞罗卡（Gene Seroka）表示，今年5月通过该港口的20英尺标准箱（TEU）数量 为71.7万，同比下降5%，创下两年来的最低水平。预计2025年7月的货物量将同比下降27%。 长期来看，关税壁垒正重塑全球供应链格局。美国威达信集团亚洲区首席商务官柯灵芸（Joan Collar） 接受第一财经记者专访时表示，保护主义政策推高的进口成本正促使企业重新考量供应链策略，本地化 采购和近岸外包趋势日益明显。"这可能导致国际航运需求持续走低，企业将更注重规避关税和降低运 输成本"她称。 库存充足，航运价格下降 今年第一季度的抢先进口潮使美国零售商库存维持高位。虽然过去数月有所消耗，但现有库存仍处于充 足水平。本月初发布的6月美国物流经理指数（LMI）上升至60.7，达到了 ...

金十数据7月3日讯，新加坡副总理说，企业必须做好准备，在一段时间内，向美国出口产品的成本会更 高。他表示："我们不能指望关税在美国政府换届四年后就会取消。"他说，美国两党在使用关税来实现 贸易平衡以及（企业和投资）回流或近岸关键产业方面达成了越来越多的共识。企业还必须准备好接受 对其生产和供应链的更多审查。 新加坡副总理：企业必须为对美出口成本上升做好准备 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - A significant amount of copper is being transported to the United States, driven by expectations of potential tariffs on copper imports, with estimates of around 500,000 tons currently en route, compared to the usual monthly import volume of 70,000 tons [3] - The price disparity between copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) and the London Metal Exchange (LME) has widened, with COMEX prices exceeding LME prices by over $1,400 per ton, creating lucrative arbitrage opportunities for traders [4] - The U.S. domestic copper production accounts for only 5% of global supply, while demand is increasing at a rate of 6.2%, significantly higher than the global average of 3.8%, necessitating increased imports to meet domestic needs [6] Group 2: Geopolitical and Strategic Factors - Geopolitical tensions are influencing U.S. strategies to reduce reliance on Asian countries for copper supply, aiming to integrate suppliers from the Americas into its supply chain [7] - The U.S. is attempting to secure its resource supply and reshape the global copper market by building inventory through increased imports [7] Group 3: Impact on Futures Market - The influx of copper into the U.S. has led to significant fluctuations in copper prices, with COMEX prices rising sharply while LME prices also show an upward trend, increasing market volatility [9] - The previously stable price difference between COMEX and LME has become highly variable, raising the risks associated with arbitrage trading [10] Group 4: Inventory Changes - COMEX copper inventory surged to 176,000 tons in the first half of 2025, a 120% increase from the beginning of the year, while LME inventory decreased to 114,000 tons, impacting price dynamics in the futures market [12] Group 5: Effects on Traders and Companies - Traders who anticipated tariff expectations and successfully redirected copper shipments to the U.S. stand to gain substantial profits, while those who failed to act in time may face significant risks and potential losses [13] - Copper smelting companies may experience instability in raw material supply due to the altered supply landscape, affecting production schedules and cost management [14] - Downstream processing companies, particularly in sectors like electrical wiring, are facing increased procurement costs due to rising copper prices, which they struggle to pass on to customers, leading to compressed profit margins [16]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - CMC reported net earnings of $83.1 million or $0.73 per diluted share on net sales of $2 billion, with adjusted earnings of $84.4 million or $0.74 per diluted share, reflecting a decline from the prior year period [7][29] - Consolidated core EBITDA was $204.1 million with a core EBITDA margin of 10.1%, down from 12.3% in the prior year period [30] - North American Steel Group adjusted EBITDA decreased 24% year-over-year to $186 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 11.9% compared to 14.7% in the previous year [30][31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - North American Steel Group experienced lower margins over scrap, impacting profitability, while Emerging Business Group's net sales increased by 4.7% year-over-year to $197.5 million, with adjusted EBITDA up 7% [30][34] - Europe Steel Group reported adjusted EBITDA of $3.6 million, a significant improvement from a loss of $4.2 million in the prior year, driven by increased shipment volumes and cost management efforts [35][36] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Finished steel shipments in North America increased by 3.2% year-over-year, with daily rebar shipments growing approximately 1.3% [33] - The construction and industrial activity remained resilient, with strong demand signals in both non-residential and infrastructure markets, despite economic uncertainties [9][10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - CMC is executing a strategy aimed at enhancing financial profiles and achieving higher, more stable margins and cash flows through operational excellence and strategic growth initiatives [6][22] - The company is focused on value-accretive organic growth, particularly through its micro mill projects, which are expected to contribute significantly to EBITDA [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the long-term outlook, citing strong structural drivers for construction activity, including infrastructure investment and reshoring trends [11][12] - The company anticipates improved financial results in the fourth quarter, driven by seasonal trends and higher steel product margins [41][42] Other Important Information - CMC's cash and cash equivalents totaled $893 million, with total liquidity exceeding $1.7 billion, providing flexibility for strategic growth and shareholder returns [37][38] - The company expects to invest between $425 million and $475 million in capital expenditures for fiscal 2025, down from previous guidance due to project delays [39][40] Q&A Session Summary Question: Steel products volumes in North America - Management acknowledged that steel product volumes were up only 7% sequentially due to outages and challenges in production, but expects a strong fourth quarter with volumes following normal seasonal trends [45][46][48] Question: U.S. rebar pricing - Management noted that while they do not discuss prices directly, they are focused on creating value over volume and will continue to monitor pricing dynamics [51][52][54] Question: Update on Arizona two utilization rate - Management reported good progress with Arizona two, expecting to exit the year at around 70% to 75% utilization and anticipates profitability in the fourth quarter [58][61] Question: West Virginia project delays - Management clarified that delays were due to tax credit compliance and weather issues, not market conditions, and expressed optimism about future demand [64][70] Question: Inorganic growth opportunities - Management indicated a good pipeline for potential acquisitions, emphasizing discipline in evaluating opportunities and the importance of achieving synergies to enhance value [75][79]

Summary of Columbus McKinnon Conference Call Company Overview - Columbus McKinnon is a global leader in intelligent motion solutions for material handling with over 150 years of history and public since 1996 [2][3] - The company generates approximately $1 billion in sales with a 16% EBITDA margin, with 60% of business in North America and 30% in EMEA [4] Business Segments - The company operates in four main platforms: - Lifting (60% of revenue) providing hoists and rigging materials [5] - Precision conveyance, enhanced through acquisitions like Dorner and Garvey [6] - Automation, stemming from the Magnetek acquisition [6] - Linear motion, representing 9% of the company [7] Growth Strategy - Columbus McKinnon is focused on growth and margin expansion through strategic acquisitions and entering secular growth categories [3][12] - Recent acquisitions include: - Keto Crosby for $2.7 billion, expected to close by the end of the calendar year [10][19] - Dorner Corporation for $485 million, enhancing precision conveyance capabilities [12] - Garvey Corporation and Montrotech, expanding automation and precision handling [16][18] Financial Performance and Projections - The acquisition of Keto Crosby is expected to double the company's size and triple EBITDA, with a projected EBITDA margin of 23% [27] - Anticipated net synergies of $70 million from the acquisition, with significant free cash flow generation expected [28][39] - The company aims to reduce net leverage to about 3x within two years [40] Market Dynamics - The company is experiencing strong demand in sectors such as battery production, e-commerce, life sciences, food and beverage, and aerospace [58][61][63] - Challenges include tariff impacts, with a potential $10 million headwind expected in the current fiscal year [43][45] - Short cycle orders have been weaker, but project business is growing, indicating a shift in demand profiles [50][54] Competitive Landscape - The industry has shown rational pricing behavior in response to inflation and tariffs, with Columbus McKinnon implementing pricing actions to mitigate tariff impacts [47][49] - The company is well-positioned to leverage its global presence and expertise in various markets, including defense and energy [68] Conclusion - The Keto Crosby acquisition is viewed as a transformative opportunity, enhancing scale and operational capabilities while allowing Columbus McKinnon to continue its strategic focus on intelligent motion solutions [70][71]

"出海"已成为各行各业的首选，而新兴市场成为"航海"新风向。 随着全球供应链重塑与地缘政治格局变化，越来越多的中国企业将目光投向墨西哥这一"北美门前的制 造业中枢"，对希望以"北美视角"布局全球的新一代中国企业而言，墨西哥不仅是通往美国的桥梁，更 可能是构建区域总部、实现技术融合与品牌落地的重要一站。 在日前毕马威中国主办的"出海系列"活动中，毕马威墨西哥税务与法务合伙人Hector Diaz Santana接受 《国际金融报》专访，深入解析了当前中国企业赴墨西哥投资的趋势、优势、挑战与应对策略，为有意 出海的中国企业提供了实战参考。 产业集群效应加速 "过去两年，墨西哥制造业以及汽车领域的投资活动非常活跃。同样，近期金融服务领域(尤其是小额信 贷等细分市场)也发展良好，吸引了外国企业往墨西哥和拉美市场布局。"Hector表示。 "事实上，将供应链、产业链在不同地区进行布局调整，有助于更灵活地应对市场变化，加快市场响应 速度，提升企业的商业竞争力。"Hector表示，在此背景下，墨西哥出现产业集群化趋势，有助于某些 行业的中国企业更好利用当地集中的资源，比如仓储、物流及员工住房等配套支持。这一趋势也使墨西 哥 ...

钢铁关税可能将推高美国国内钢价5-8%，加剧制造业通胀压力，并可能引发墨西哥对美农产品的报复 性关税，扩大价格波动风险。关税可能削弱墨西哥作为"近岸外包"目的地的竞争力，延缓企业投资，甚 至触发USMCA贸易争端。 据Ebrard的公关团队分享的一段音频内容显示，Ebrard补充说，如果这些新规定得到确认，那么它们将 会对汽车、建筑和电子等行业产生影响。 此外，地缘上，关税博弈或影响美墨在移民、禁毒等领域的合作，而美国通胀压力和墨西哥经济增长放 缓可能形成双向拖累，最终演变为区域性经济摩擦。 智通财经APP获悉，墨西哥经济部长Marcelo Ebrard周二表示，墨西哥本周将要求特朗普政府对其实施 的钢铁关税上调至 50%的举措予以豁免。Ebrard将于周五前往华盛顿与美国官员进行会谈。他表示，如 果加征的关税措施继续实施，墨西哥将制定"备选方案"。Ebrard称："这不公平，也难以持续。我们将 于周五提交相关论据，以将墨西哥排除在这一措施之外。" 美国对墨西哥加征钢铁关税将直接抬高汽车、机械和建筑等下游行业的原材料成本，其中汽车制造业每 辆车成本可能增加200-500美元，削弱其市场竞争力。墨西哥作为美国第 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Columbus McKinnon reported fiscal year 2025 net sales of $963 million, down 4% year over year on a constant currency basis, reflecting lower volume due to short cycle order softness [14] - In the fourth quarter, sales were $246.9 million, a decrease of 5% from the prior year on a constant currency basis, primarily due to a 9% decrease in short cycle sales [14] - Gross profit for the quarter was $79.8 million, down $14.5 million year over year, impacted by factory closure costs and lower sales volume [15] - Adjusted earnings per diluted share decreased by $0.15 versus the prior year, driven by lower volume and unfavorable mix [16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Record orders increased by 4% year over year on a constant currency basis, driven by 8% growth in project-related orders and strength in precision conveyance [5] - Short cycle orders were flat on a constant currency basis in the quarter, with improved comparison trends from the third quarter [6] - Backlog increased by 15% year over year to $322.5 million, reflecting strength in project-related orders, particularly in precision conveyance [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Demand remains strong in vertical end markets such as battery production, life sciences, e-commerce, food and beverage, and aerospace [8] - The company is seeing potential early benefits from industries impacted by tariffs, particularly in steel and heavy equipment [9] - Order activity through mid-May remains encouraging, with orders up year over year and continued overperformance in precision conveyance [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on operational execution, managing costs, and executing its strategic plan while navigating a challenging macroeconomic environment [12] - Columbus McKinnon is excited about the pending acquisition of Keto Crosby, which is expected to scale the business and enhance customer capabilities [11] - The company aims to achieve tariff cost neutrality by the second half of fiscal 2026 and margin neutrality over time, likely in fiscal 2027 [10] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about order performance and quotation activity despite macro uncertainty [9] - The company anticipates that the current project versus short cycle mix dynamics will continue to impact sales and margins in the first quarter [9] - Management remains focused on meeting customer needs and delivering long-term value to shareholders despite geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties [56] Other Important Information - The company paid down $60 million of debt in fiscal 2025, including $15 million in the fourth quarter, and continues to prioritize debt repayment [17] - Adjusted EBITDA for the fourth quarter was $36.1 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 14.6% [17] - The company expects a $40 million EBITDA impact from unmitigated tariff exposure based on current knowledge [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: What is the tariff rate embedded for China and EU for the $0.20 to $0.30 headwind in the first half of the year? - The company is factoring in 14.5% on China tariffs and 10% on EU tariffs [25] Question: Can you discuss the near-term outlook and how short cycle sales have trended? - Short cycle sales improved in the latter portion of Q4, with flat year-over-year performance, and growth in order demand is expected [27] Question: Can you elaborate on the tariff situation and the expected net mitigation? - The company anticipates that demand remains uncertain, with potential positive impacts from surcharges and tariffs, but volume reductions may occur due to price increases [32] Question: Where is the strength in precision conveyance orders coming from? - Precision conveyance orders have seen robust demand, particularly from Montrotech and Dorner businesses, with strength in end markets like battery production and e-commerce [35] Question: How does the mix impact margins given the strong precision conveyance orders? - While precision conveyance orders were up, sales were down, leading to a negative impact on margins due to lower volume and mix [41]