| | | ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/11/21 | 4030. 46 | 49.40 | 4027. 40 | 48.94 | 924. 00 | 11696.00 | 921.93 | 11685.00 | | (本表数 | 2025/11/20 | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/11/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 贵金属与新能源研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2512 | AG2512 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | 日期 | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盗司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | 2025/11/19 | 4092. 16 | 51. 43 | 4092. 80 | 51. 29 | 937.00 | 12141.00 | 934. 70 | 12140.00 | | 格跟踪 (本表数 | | | | | | | | | | | 据来源: ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares continue to fluctuate narrowly, with domestic stock index showing strong resilience. After the release of the third - quarter reports, A - shares are in a repricing adjustment, with limited downside risks. The bond market pricing is rather entangled and may continue to fluctuate narrowly. Precious metals maintain a weak - side fluctuation. Different varieties in other sectors have their own trends and corresponding operation suggestions [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: TMT rotates upwards, and A - shares continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. If there is a deep decline on a single day, a bull spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The equity market declines, and the bond futures fluctuate strongly. In the short - term, the bond market may continue to fluctuate narrowly. It is recommended to operate within the range for the unilateral strategy [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices may seek to stabilize around $4000 (925 yuan), and it is recommended to buy on dips. Silver follows the gold price, and it is recommended to try long positions on dips with a light position [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC main contract rises and is expected to fluctuate upwards in the short - term [3]. - **Steel**: For steel, it is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils and wait and see on the unilateral side. Iron ore fluctuates, and it is recommended to wait and see unilaterally within the range of 750 - 800. Coking coal and coke are considered to have a downward - biased fluctuation, with reference ranges of 1100 - 1250 and 1600 - 1750 respectively [3]. Non - ferrous Metals Sector - Copper fluctuates, with the main contract referring to 85000 - 87500. Aluminum oxide fluctuates at a low level, waiting for new trading drivers. Aluminum breaks through the 22000 mark and then adjusts downward, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Other non - ferrous metal varieties also have their own price ranges and operation suggestions [3]. New Energy Sector - Polysilicon futures fluctuate downward, with a price range of 50000 - 58000. Lithium carbonate has multiple contracts hitting the daily limit, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. Energy and Chemical Sector - Different chemical products such as PX, PTA, short - fiber, etc. have their own price trends and corresponding operation suggestions, including waiting and seeing, operating within the range, and doing arbitrage [3]. Agricultural Products Sector - Different agricultural products such as soybeans, hogs, corn, etc. have their own price trends. For example, hogs are expected to fluctuate weakly, and it is recommended to hold the 3 - 7 spread arbitrage. Corn rebounds and fluctuates, and attention should be paid to the pressure level around 2200 [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock index futures show strong resilience. Treasury bond futures are expected to be supported by a loose monetary policy. Precious metals are likely to continue rising due to factors such as a dovish Fed and tight inventory. Various commodity futures are expected to fluctuate within certain ranges, and different trading strategies are recommended for each [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the third - quarter reports. It is recommended to wait and see, and consider a bull put spread option strategy in case of a sharp one - day decline [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver prices are expected to rise. Gold's short - term resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and silver remains strong above $51 (11800 yuan). Buying call options and taking profits on rallies is recommended [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1850 in the short term [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the RB2601 contract, hold the long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage, and stay on the sidelines for single - side trading [3]. - **Iron Ore**: The I2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 750 - 800. It is recommended to hold the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The JM2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1170 - 1290. Consider a 1 - 5 coking coal calendar spread arbitrage [3]. - **Coke**: The J2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1650 - 1780. Consider a 1 - 5 coke calendar spread arbitrage [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The CU2512 contract is in a narrow - range oscillation, with the main support around 86500 [3]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: The AL2601 contract is testing the 22000 resistance level. Other aluminum - related contracts have their respective price ranges and trading suggestions [3]. - **Zinc**: The ZN2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 22300 - 23000 [3]. - **Tin**: Hold long positions in the SN2512 contract as the supply side remains tight [3]. - **Nickel**: The NI2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 118000 - 124000 [3]. - **Stainless Steel**: The SS2512 contract is expected to fluctuate between 12400 - 12800 [3]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The Si2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 8500 - 9500 [3]. New Energy and Chemical Sector - **Polysilicon**: The PS2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 50000 - 58000 due to rumors of a storage platform [3]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The LC2601 contract is in a wide - range adjustment. Pay attention to the performance at the previous high [3]. - **PX**: The PX2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 6200 - 6800. Reduce long positions on rallies [3]. - **PTA**: The TA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 4300 - 4800. Reduce long positions and consider a 1 - 5 rolling reverse spread [3]. - **Short - fiber**: The PF2512 contract's processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 800 - 1100. Shrink the spread on rallies [3]. - **Bottle Chip**: The PR2601 contract's processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 300 - 450 yuan/ton. Its single - side trading is similar to PTA [3]. - **Ethanol**: Hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price of no less than 4100 for the EG2601 contract and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread on rallies [3]. - **Benzene**: The BZ2603 contract is expected to be shorted on rallies following the oil price [3]. - **Styrene**: The EB2512 contract's price is expected to be shorted on rebounds [3]. - **LLDPE**: Pay attention to the inflection point of inventory reduction for the L2601 contract [3]. - **PP**: Stay on the sidelines for the PP2601 contract as trading volume has improved and the basis has strengthened [3]. - **Methanol**: Pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the MTO spread for the 05 contract of the MA2601 contract [3]. - **Caustic Soda**: Stay on the sidelines for the SH2601 contract in the short term [3]. - **PVC**: Adopt a short - selling strategy for the V2601 contract as the supply - demand imbalance persists [3]. - **Soda Ash**: Wait for the opportunity to short on rebounds for the SA2601 contract [3]. - **Glass**: Treat the FG2601 contract as weak in the short term as spot sales have weakened [3]. - **Natural Rubber**: Stay on the sidelines for the RU2601 contract as short - term driving factors are limited [3]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for the BR2601 contract in the medium term, and pay attention to the 10800 resistance level [3]. Agricultural Sector - **Meal**: Consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the M2601 and RM601 contracts and wait for the USDA report [3]. - **Pig**: Hold a 3 - 7 reverse spread for the LH2601 contract as the previous low provides support [3]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the 2200 resistance level for the C2601 contract as the supply is temporarily tight [3]. - **Oil**: The P contract may reach 8900 in the short term. Pay attention to the bio - diesel policy and the USDA monthly report [3]. - **Sugar**: The SR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 5400 - 5550 [3]. - **Cotton**: The CF2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 13400 - 13600 [3]. - **Egg**: Hold short positions in the 2512 contract of the JD2601 contract as the supply is still abundant [3]. - **Apple**: The AP2601 contract may reach the previous high of 9300 [3]. - **Jujube**: The CJ2601 contract is expected to weaken [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility while waiting for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%, and with the restart of central bank Treasury bond trading and a loose monetary policy orientation, the top of interest rates and the bottom of Treasury bond futures are more solid [3]. - The buying power of gold and silver has increased, and their price centers are expected to continue to rise [3]. - Various commodities have different trends, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each commodity, such as buying on dips, holding long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: A - shares are in a re - pricing adjustment after the release of the third - quarter reports, with narrow - range callbacks and rebounds in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see mainly. In case of a deep one - day decline, a bullish put - option spread can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate in the range of 1.75% - 1.82%. It is recommended to go long on dips in the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [3]. - **Precious Metals**: The buying power of gold and silver has increased. Gold resistance is around $4190 (956 yuan), and it can be bought on dips below $4100 (936 yuan). Silver may rise to $52 (12000 yuan), and long - call options can be held [3]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The main contract is in a short - term shock, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [3]. Black - **Steel**: It is recommended to hold the arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations [3]. - **Iron Ore**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see attitude for single - side operations, with a reference range of 750 - 800, and an arbitrage of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1170 - 1290, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. - **Coke**: It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1650 - 1780, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is recommended [3]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound, with the main contract reference range of 85500 - 87500 [3]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and corresponding investment suggestions, such as holding long - positions for tin, and taking a wait - and - see or other strategies for others [3]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50000 - 58000 due to decreased demand and falling silicon wafer prices [3]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The price is in a moderate - amplitude shock adjustment, and attention should be paid to the performance at the previous high [3]. Energy and Chemical - **PX, PTA, etc.**: Each chemical product has its own price range and investment strategies, such as taking a wait - and - see attitude, reducing long - positions, or conducting arbitrage operations [3]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans, Hogs, etc.**: Different agricultural products have different price trends and investment suggestions, such as holding a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage for hogs and paying attention to support or pressure levels for others [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The US dollar index has strengthened recently due to better - than - expected US October manufacturing PMI and employment market data, suppressing the performance of risk assets, but domestic stock indices are resilient and continue to reduce volatility and wait for stabilization [3]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.82%. With the restart of the central bank's Treasury bond trading, the top of interest rates and the bottom of bond futures are more solid. The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals [3]. - In the context of tight supply of gold and silver, the buying power has increased, driving the prices of precious metals to rise strongly [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: After the release of the third - quarter reports, the A - share market is in a repricing adjustment. There may be short - term narrow - range corrections and rebounds, with limited downside risk. It is recommended to wait and see. If there is a deep decline in a single day, a bullish spread of put options can be arranged [3]. - **Treasury Bond**: The short - term capital market is tightened, but the bond market sentiment is positive. In the unilateral strategy, investors are advised to buy on dips. In the spot - futures strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: It is recommended to buy gold below $4100. For silver, call options with a strike price below the market price can be bought [3]. Black Sector - **Steel**: For the January 2026 contract, the supply of iron elements is loose. It is recommended to hold a long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage position and wait and see on a single - side basis [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments and arrivals have decreased significantly, port stocks have increased, and molten iron production has dropped sharply. It is recommended to short on rallies, with a reference range of 750 - 800. An arbitrage strategy of long - coking coal and short - iron ore is recommended [3]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price at the origin is running strongly, and the price of Mongolian coal is firm. It is recommended to buy coking coal 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1250 - 1350 [3]. - **Coke**: Mainstream coking enterprises have started the fourth round of price increases, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to buy coke 2601 on dips, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850 [3]. Non - ferrous Sector - **Copper**: The end of the US government shutdown may drive the copper price to rebound. The support level of the main contract is around 84000, and the resistance level is around 86500 [3]. - **Other Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as aluminum (21000 - 21800), zinc (22300 - 23000), etc. [3] New Energy Sector - **Polysilicon and Carbonate Lithium**: Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate between 50000 - 58000, and carbonate lithium is in a wide - range oscillatory adjustment [3]. Chemical Sector - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6200 - 6800 in the short term, and PTA is expected to oscillate between 4300 - 4800. It is recommended to reduce long positions [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own trading suggestions, such as short - fiber (short on rallies), ethanol (hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not less than 4100), etc. [3] Agricultural Sector - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is recommended to be shorted on rebounds, and palm oil is in a weak operation with a support level at 8600 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: For pigs, a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage position can be held. For eggs, inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities and short - selling opportunities on rallies can be considered [3]. - **Fruits and Others**: Apples may hit the previous high of 9300, and red dates are in a low - level oscillation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly reports, with common short - term rebounds and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals as credit data is expected to weaken in October, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market [2]. - International gold prices will mainly show a volatile consolidation trend, with silver following gold's fluctuations [2]. - The shipping index (European line) will be volatile in the short term [2]. - The supply of iron elements in the steel market is loose, and there are various trading strategies for different steel - related products [2]. - The prices of some chemical products are affected by supply - demand and cost factors, with limited rebound space or downward pressure [2]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, supply, and production, showing different trends [2]. - Special and new energy products have their own price trends and trading logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market冲高兑现预期, there is a slight callback, and the technology sector recovers. A - shares are in repricing adjustment, with short - term rebounds and limited downside risks. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market. It is recommended to go long on a single - side strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: International gold prices will oscillate between 3900 - 4030 dollars, and silver will fluctuate between 47 - 49 dollars [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures (European Line)**: It will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose. It is recommended to hold a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and to go short on the iron ore contract at high prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: After the shipping volume declines and the arrival volume increases, the port inventory rises, and the iron ore price drops after rising. It is recommended to go short at high prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the producing area is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The third - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has回调, and the downstream demand has briefly recovered. Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the pressure at 86500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has increased in both volume and price, but the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main operation range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as zinc oscillating at a high level between 22300 - 23000, tin maintaining a high - level oscillation, etc. [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectations are weak, and the cost - end support is limited, with limited rebound space [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options and consider a reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and trading suggestions, such as PVC being recommended to go short on rebounds [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The prices of some grains and oils are affected by factors such as trade negotiations and production. For example, the price of palm oil is weak, and it is recommended to close the long positions of some contracts [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig price is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own price trend and trading suggestions, such as sugar being recommended to trade short on rebounds [2]. Special and New Energy Products - **Glass**: There is support at the bottom due to the peak construction season and production line disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot market for short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. - **Rubber**: The negative factors have been gradually digested, and the rubber price has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are mainly oscillating, with specific price ranges [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading logic has changed recently, and it is in a weak adjustment [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - A-shares show strong resilience and stage a phased stabilization and rebound. After the quarterly reports, the A-share market is in a repricing adjustment, with trading sentiment cold and the direction unclear. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - The overall market sentiment has improved. It is expected that the bond interest rate fluctuation range will generally decline. The short-term fluctuation range of the active 10-year treasury bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading has strengthened the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. It is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - The short-term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 (¥900) and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. - For the steel market, the iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot-rolled coils. For iron ore, with shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore. For coking coal, the local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coke, with the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500. The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600. The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000. The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000. The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips. The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000. The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. - For the chemical market, the PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread. The PTA rebound space is also limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage. The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs. The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton. The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5. The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view. The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds. The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs. The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds. The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point. The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see. The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May. The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. - In the agricultural product market, due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions in M2601 and RM601 cautiously. The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage. The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160. The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan. The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended. The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800. The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity. The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan. The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly. The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained. The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities. The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see. The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500. The polysilicon market has stable spot prices, falling silicon wafers, and a rising futures premium, with the price oscillating between 50000 - 58000. The lithium carbonate market's disk is maintaining a weak oscillation, and the trading logic has changed, with a weak adjustment and the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan [2]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - IF2512, IH2512, IC2512, IM2512: The market has a slight correction after reaching a high and fulfilling expectations, with volatility decreasing and waiting for stabilization. The A - share market shows strong resilience and a phased rebound. After the quarterly reports, the market is in a repricing adjustment, with cold trading sentiment and an unclear direction. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - T2512, TF2512, TS2512, TL2512: The overall market sentiment has improved. The bond interest rate fluctuation range is expected to decline. The short - term fluctuation range of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may be between 1.75% - 1.8%. The capital supply is loosening, and treasury bond futures are fluctuating narrowly. The restart of the central bank's treasury bond trading strengthens the interest rate ceiling and the bottom of treasury bond futures. For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to go long on dips; for the cash - and - carry strategy, due to the rising IRR, positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [2]. Precious Metals - AU2512, AG2512: The short - term international gold price has stabilized at $3900 and is mainly in a sideways consolidation trend, with an operating range of $3900 - $4030. Silver follows the gold price and fluctuates between $47 - $49 [2]. Shipping Index - EC2512: The container shipping index (European line) EC main contract is oscillating upward. It is recommended to go long on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - RB2601: The iron element supply for the January contract is abundant. It is advisable to hold a long position in coking coal and a short position in hot - rolled coils [2]. - I2601: With shipping volume declining, arrivals increasing, port inventory rising, and pig iron production dropping significantly, the iron ore price has retreated after a surge. It is recommended to wait and see for the unilateral strategy, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [2]. - JM2601: The local coal price is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. Although steel mills' production cuts are negative for restocking demand, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1200 - 1350, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. - J2601: With the third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises implemented and coking coal providing cost support, it is recommended to go long on dips for the January 2601 contract, with a reference range of 1700 - 1850, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - CU2512: The strong US dollar index suppresses the copper price. The main contract should pay attention to the support level around 84000 and the resistance level around 86500 [2]. - AO2601: The aluminum price is restricted by fundamentals and has retreated after a surge. The main contract reference range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - AL2512: The aluminum alloy price has weak spot trading at high prices and continuous tight raw material supply, with a main contract reference range of 20400 - 21000 [2]. - ZN2512: The zinc price is oscillating at a high level due to concerns about the LME zinc squeeze, with a main contract reference range of 22300 - 23000 [2]. - SN2512: The tin price has declined due to macro negative factors, and it is recommended to hold existing long positions and go long on dips [2]. - NI2512: The nickel price has little fundamental change and is under macro pressure, maintaining a weak oscillation, with a main contract reference range of 118000 - 124000 [2]. - SS2512: The stainless steel price is maintaining a weak operation, with the macro driving force weakening and fundamentals still under pressure, and the main contract reference range is 12500 - 13000 [2]. Chemicals - PX2601: The PX rebound space is limited due to weak supply - demand expectations and limited cost support. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 6600 and try to narrow the PX - SC spread [2]. - TA2601: The PTA rebound space is limited for similar reasons. It is recommended to reduce long positions above 4600 and treat the TA1 - 5 spread as a rolling reverse arbitrage [2]. - PF2512: The short - fiber price is under pressure to rebound due to limited cost support, with a similar strategy to PTA, and the disk processing fee is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100, and it is advisable to narrow the spread on highs [2]. - PR2601: The bottle - chip supply - demand pattern remains loose in November, and its price and processing fee follow the cost side. The strategy is similar to PTA, and the main contract disk processing fee is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 450 yuan/ton [2]. - EG2601: The MEG supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation, so it is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options with a strike price not lower than 4100 and conduct a high - level reverse arbitrage for EG1 - 5 [2]. - SH2601: The caustic soda price is under pressure due to general downstream acceptance and weak spot trading, with a bearish view [2]. - V2601: The PVC market's supply - demand contradiction has not improved, and the disk is weakening, so it is recommended to short on rebounds [2]. - BZ2603: The benzene market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, low valuation, and limited price drivers, so BZ2603 should follow the oil price and be shorted on highs [2]. - EB2511: The styrene market is expected to be in a tight balance, and attention should be paid to the device shutdown situation. The EB12 price should be shorted on rebounds [2]. - L2601: The LLDPE trading is okay, and the East China basis is strengthening, so attention should be paid to the inventory depletion inflection point [2]. - PP2601: The PP trading has improved, and the basis is maintained, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - MA2601: The methanol port basis is strengthening, and the trading is okay, so attention should be paid to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between March and May [2]. - BR2512: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be weak in oscillation, so it is recommended to short BR2601 on highs [2]. Agricultural Products - M2601, RM601: Due to the State Council's decision on US tariffs, the internal and external markets have risen in tandem, and it is recommended to hold long positions cautiously [2]. - LH2601: The pig market has a loose supply - demand situation, and the pig price is oscillating weakly, so it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [2]. - C2601: The corn market still has supply pressure, and the disk rebound is limited, so attention should be paid to the pressure around 2160 [2]. - P2601, Y2601: The palm oil market has production growth according to MPOA, and the palm oil price is maintaining a weak operation, with the main contract possibly testing the support at 8500 yuan [2]. - SR2601: The sugar market has a loose overseas supply, and the raw sugar price has dropped significantly, so a bearish trading strategy is recommended [2]. - CF2601: The cotton market's new cotton cost is gradually fixed, and the price is oscillating between 13500 - 13800 [2]. - JD2512: The egg market is short - term strong but still has a loose supply, so attention should be paid to the inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunity [2]. - AP2601: The apple market's Shandong ground fruit price has declined, and the price is expected to adjust in the short term, with attention paid to the support at 8800 yuan [2]. - CJ2601: The jujube market's spot price has weakened, and the disk is oscillating weakly [2]. - SA2601: The pure film market has a continuous surplus pattern, and the disk is under pressure and weakening, so a bearish view is maintained [2]. - FG2601: The glass market's production line changes affect the disk, and attention should be paid to the continuous performance of spot sales, so attention should be paid to the spot side to capture short - term long opportunities [2]. - RU2601: The rubber market has generally falling commodity prices, and the rubber price is continuing to weaken, so it is recommended to wait and see [2]. New Energy - Si2601: The industrial silicon market is expected to rebound due to supply contraction, with the price oscillating between 8500 - 9500 [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Instead, it offers specific investment suggestions for various futures contracts in different sectors. 2) Core Views - The A-share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly report release, with trading sentiment being cold and the direction unclear [2]. - Bond interest rates are expected to have a lower fluctuation range, and investors can consider appropriate long - positions on 10 - year Treasury bonds on dips [2]. - Precious metals are under pressure from liquidity tightening and a stronger dollar, with gold and silver showing different short - term trends [2]. - The shipping index is expected to be volatile in the short term, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - The steel and iron ore markets have complex supply - demand situations, with different trading strategies for each contract [2]. - The energy and chemical sector has diverse trends, with some products like MEG expected to decline and others having different trading opportunities [2]. - The agricultural product market is affected by factors such as supply and demand and policy details, with different trading suggestions for each product [2]. - Special and new energy products also have their own price trends and corresponding trading strategies [2]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market's upward movement and profit - taking, there is a slight correction. It is recommended to wait and see as the direction is not clear [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's bond - buying scale is lower than expected. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250016.IB may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Long positions on dips and positive arbitrage strategies are suggested [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: Gold has short - term downward pressure but buying support. It can be bought on dips below 3900 dollars (900 yuan). Silver may fall to the previous low of 45 dollars (11000 yuan), and short - term observation is recommended [2]. Commodity Futures - **Shipping Futures**: The container shipping index (European line) is short - term volatile, and long positions on the 12 - contract are recommended on dips [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore Futures**: For steel, a long - coal and short - coil strategy is recommended for the January 2026 contract. For iron ore, short positions are recommended on rallies for the 2601 contract, with a reference range of 760 - 810, and a 1 - 5 positive arbitrage is also suggested [2]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Different products have different trends. For example, PX and PTA have limited rebound space, and short positions on rallies are recommended; MEG is expected to decline, and holding out - of - the - money call options and 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage are suggested [2]. - **Agricultural Product Futures**: Products like soybeans, corn, and palm oil have different price trends and trading strategies. For example, long positions in the 2601 soybean contract should be held cautiously, and the palm oil may test the 8500 - yuan support [2]. - **Special and New Energy Futures**: Glass offers short - long opportunities by observing the spot market; industrial silicon and polysilicon have price fluctuation ranges, and lithium carbonate is expected to be weak [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and are likely to further stabilize. It is recommended to focus on long - term allocation opportunities of buying on dips after stabilization [5] - In the long - term, the Fed is still in an interest - rate cut cycle. Global geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the unsustainable US debt and intensifying great - power competition will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. With central banks' gold purchases continuing, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up. Long - term investors are advised to allocate on dips [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Spread Data - **15 - point price tracking of internal and external gold and silver on November 3, 2025**: London gold spot was at $4017.06 per ounce, London silver spot at $48.86 per ounce, COMEX gold at $4028.00 per ounce, COMEX silver at $48.58 per ounce, AU2512 at 922.58 yuan per gram, AG2512 at 11455 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) at 919.58 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) at 11424 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the price changes were 0.2%, - 0.5%, 0.1%, - 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, 0.1%, and 0.3% respectively [4] - **15 - point price tracking of spreads and ratios on November 3, 2025**: Gold TD - SHFE active spread was - 3 yuan per gram, silver TD - SHFE active spread was - 31 yuan per kilogram, gold internal - external (TD - London) spread was 4.32 yuan per gram, silver internal - external (TD - London) spread was - 1022 yuan per kilogram, SHFE gold - silver ratio was 80.54, COMEX gold - silver ratio was 82.91, AU2602 - 2512 was 2.82 yuan per gram, and AG2602 - 2512 was 24 yuan per kilogram. Compared with October 31, 2025, the changes were - 5.4%, - 38.0%, - 10.8%, - 7.8%, - 0.1%, 0.2%, - 7.8%, and - 4.0% respectively [4] 3.2 Position Data - **As of October 31, 2025**: Gold ETF - SPDR was 1039.2 tons, silver ETF - SLV was 15189.81735 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 332808 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 66059 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 266749 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 72318 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 20042 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 52276 contracts. Compared with October 30, 2025, the changes were - 0.11%, 0.00%, 1.85%, 9.43%, 0.13%, 0.97%, - 0.21%, and 1.43% respectively [4] 3.3 Inventory Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: SHFE gold inventory was 87816.00 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory was 658851.00 kilograms. As of October 31, 2025, COMEX gold inventory was 38168047 troy ounces, and COMEX silver inventory was 482438705 troy ounces. Compared with the previous period, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.01%, - 0.20%, and - 0.14% respectively [4] 3.4 Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Data - **As of November 3, 2025**: The US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.09. As of October 31, 2025, the US dollar index was 99.73, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.11%, VIX was 17.44, the S&P 500 was 6840.20, and NYMEX crude oil was $60.88 per barrel. Compared with the previous period, the changes were - 0.02%, 0.19%, - 0.28%, 0.00%, 3.13%, 0.26%, and 0.98% respectively [4] 3.5 Market Analysis - **Market review**: On November 3, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 0.47% to 922.58 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.39% to 11455 yuan per kilogram [4] - **Analysis and short - term outlook**: The new gold tax policy mainly aims to standardize the gold market, strengthen tax supervision, and has limited impact on prices. With factors such as decreased market risk appetite and the ongoing US government shutdown, precious metal prices are in a range - bound oscillation. However, the divergence within the Fed on a December rate cut and the strong US dollar index will suppress the short - term upside of precious metal prices. Short - term precious metal prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation and may further stabilize [5] - **Medium - and long - term outlook**: In the long run, the Fed is in an interest - rate cut cycle, and factors such as global geopolitical uncertainties, US debt issues, and central bank gold purchases will push up the long - term center of gold prices [5]