最终，平台通过延长促销周期和吸引流量实现表面狂欢，跨境卖家却在亏损中挣扎。亚马逊作为平台 方，虽然通过黑五活动提升了整体GMV，而实际上，卖家的参与度和满意度大幅下降。这种短期利益 与长期生态健康的矛盾，凸显了电商行业的结构性问题。 在黑五期间，亚马逊卖家本应迎来订单高峰，但现实却截然相反。许多卖家反映，订单量甚至不及平日 水平，而头部品牌的激进降价策略进一步压缩了中小卖家的利润空间。头部品牌打价格战，迫使其他卖 家跟随降价，否则无法吸引流量。更糟糕的是，亚马逊的Prime专享折扣系统多次出现报错，导致卖家 无法正常参与促销活动，错失销售机会。 不仅如此，今年黑五的另一个显著变化是平台竞争的加剧。黑五战场不再是亚马逊的"独角戏"， Temu、SHEIN、TikTokShop等新兴平台凭借极致低价和流量优势，分流了大量消费者。Temu以"低价至 上"的策略吸引了价格敏感型用户；SHEIN通过快时尚模式占据市场份额；TikTokShop则依托短视频内 容推出了超长促销活动，在美国市场实现爆发式增长。此外，沃尔玛、速卖通等传统平台也延长了黑五 促销周期，进一步瓜分市场份额。除了平台竞争，消费者行为的转变也是黑五困境 ...

前言 11月外交风波不断，但中国商场里的日本寿司店却排起长龙。 一边是网上"抵制日货"的声音震天响，一边是黄牛把排队号炒到80块钱还有人抢。 网上喊着要开战，线下排队给日料送钱，这是什么操作？这背后藏着什么我们没发现的秘密？ 楼上空荡荡，楼下排长龙，商场里的冰火两重天 2025年的冬天气温是冷的，但更冷的其实是全国餐饮行业的生意。 你走进北京朝阳路那些大型商场，会明显感到一种说不出的落寞。 很多之前火到不行的网红店，现在门口只能挂着"免排队""进店赠饮"的小牌子。 服务员站在门口，眼神空空的，仿佛下一秒就能被风吹倒。 就在同一个商场的转角处，你却能看到完全相反的画面。 那边冷冷清清，这边排队队伍长到能绕柱子三圈，号机亮着醒目的数字："前方等待108桌"。 预计需要三小时起步，这种场景在北京西单大悦城、上海环球港、广州天河城到处上演。 排队的餐厅不是什么奢华高端的品牌，而是寿司郎，一个原本在中国也没多大名气的日本回转寿司店。 那些年轻人，坐着小马扎，刷着手机、打着游戏，黄牛甚至能把靠前的排号炒到80块钱一张。 这是什么概念？80块钱在旁边随便一家中餐快餐店都能吃得挺不错的。 因为日本政坛某些政客比如高市早苗的刺 ...

一二线楼市不约而同的经历了卷规模、卷快周转、卷产品力的风潮，每一次浪潮中总有优秀的弄潮儿， 实现了叫好又叫座。 但如果你是一个敏锐的地产人，就不难发现，产品力越来越极致、赠送面积越来越多、会所越来越大的 当下，但还是很多项目开始滞销了，甚至卖不过同地段的二手现房。 为什么楼盘会滞销？难道客户不喜欢产品力更强？下一波浪潮会是什么呢？ 要解开这些迷思，我们先要研究明白，当下的消费趋势和人们的消费心态发生了哪些变化，而房地产的 产品革新又与之产生了怎样的错位。 1 错位1：消费回归理性VS产品配置披金戴银 随着社会思潮演进、经济环境变化，人们的消费观念也在悄然改变，提到下面几个关键词，相信大家多 少都有共鸣——平替、国潮、演唱会。 大家不再将国际大牌视为精神图腾、也不再简单粗暴选择头部产品，而是通过彼此分享更适合细分领域 的选项、更具质价比的产品，来做到一种理性思维下的消费降级——"不是波司登买不起，而是军大衣 更有性价比。" 大家不但不选择，甚至可是厌倦一堆英文字母组成的品牌，开始青睐国潮品牌，在护肤品、化妆、服 装、食品、电影、游戏等常见消费领域，我们看到越来越多带着中式符号的元素崛起。 还有一个现象，我们也可 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of Feitian Moutai has reached a new low, reflecting a significant decline in the high-end liquor market, with the company facing challenges in maintaining its performance amidst changing consumer trends and market conditions [1][4]. Price Trends - As of September 14, 2025, the wholesale reference price for 53-degree 500ml Feitian Moutai has dropped to 1770 RMB, a decrease of 10 RMB from the previous day, marking a new low since its listing [1]. - The price has fallen over 20% compared to the platform's initial pricing of 2220 RMB and 2255 RMB [1]. - On September 12, a double bottle of Feitian Moutai was priced at 3400 RMB on Pinduoduo, equating to 1700 RMB per bottle [2]. Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guizhou Moutai reported total revenue of 91.094 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, and a net profit of 45.403 billion RMB, up 8.89% [4]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor reached 75.589 billion RMB, growing by 10.24%, while series liquor revenue was 13.763 billion RMB, increasing by 4.69% [4]. - Both product categories experienced a decline in gross margin, with decreases of 0.3 percentage points and 2.5 percentage points, respectively [4]. Market Strategy - Guizhou Moutai's board member Wang Li emphasized the company's commitment to long-term strategies in response to market uncertainties, focusing on optimizing market strategies and maintaining channel stability [2]. - The company has observed a significant recovery in terminal sales since August, indicating a positive trend leading into the traditional liquor sales season during the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day [2].

Core Insights - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai (53 degrees/500ml) has dropped to a record low of 1770 yuan per bottle as of September 14, marking a cumulative decline of 20.27% from its initial price of 2220 yuan per bottle when the platform launched [1] - The original box price for the same product is 1790 yuan per bottle, also reflecting a decline of over 20% from its launch price of 2255 yuan per bottle [1] - The price of 1L kilogram Moutai has decreased to 3300 yuan per bottle, down 18.92% from the initial price of 3700 yuan per bottle at the beginning of the year, reaching a new low for the year [2] Price Trends - The price of 25-year Flying Moutai has been on a downward trend since it fell below the psychological threshold of 2000 yuan per bottle on June 11, with significant drops occurring shortly thereafter [1] - The price fluctuations included a brief recovery to 1800 yuan per bottle on June 27 and a rebound to 1880 yuan per bottle on July 7, but it subsequently entered a downward trend again [1] Market Dynamics - Company representatives acknowledged the dual pressures of cyclical adjustments in the industry and changing consumer trends during a recent earnings call, indicating a strategic response to maintain market stability [8] - Recent market activity has shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in sales volume noted in August compared to June and July, suggesting a potential improvement in market conditions [8] - The company plans to adapt its strategy for the Moutai 1935 product line by innovating marketing approaches and expanding consumption scenarios to better meet market demands [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [5]. Core Insights - The white liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with the upcoming peak season expected to improve the fundamentals. The report highlights the long-term value of leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, while also identifying short-term elastic stocks like Luzhou Laojiao and Jiangsu Yanghe [1][2]. - In the beverage segment, Budweiser plans to expand its investment in Xiamen, while Baijiu's major shareholder is transferring shares, indicating confidence in the future of the company. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-growth stocks and market leaders in the beverage sector [3]. - The snack industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the number of stores for "Mingming Hen Mang" surpassing 20,000. The report notes that the milk price is stabilizing, which may lead to opportunities in the dairy sector post-harvest season [4]. Summary by Sections White Liquor - Kweichow Moutai is leading the industry with a focus on product and channel transformation, aiming for market recovery as the peak season approaches. The report anticipates a gradual improvement in the fundamentals of the white liquor sector [2]. Beer and Beverage - Budweiser's strategic upgrade includes consolidating its operations in the Asia-Pacific region. The report suggests monitoring the recovery of the restaurant sector and the performance of leading beer brands like Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer [3]. Snacks and Dairy - The snack market is characterized by intense competition, with leading brands leveraging scale and supply chain advantages. The report also notes a slight recovery in raw milk prices, indicating potential growth in the dairy sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai is facing multiple pressures from industry cycle adjustments and changing consumer trends, but the company is committed to maintaining market stability and promoting sustainable high-quality development [1] Group 1: Market Performance - An investor raised concerns about the price of Feitian Moutai dropping below 1800 yuan before the Mid-Autumn Festival [1] - The company is actively optimizing market strategies and product placements to respond to current market trends [1] Group 2: Company Strategy - Guizhou Moutai emphasizes a long-term perspective, focusing on market and consumer needs while addressing uncertainties with its own certainties [1] - The company aims to maintain the resilience of its channel ecosystem and ensure good collaboration within the market [1]

Core Viewpoint - Kraft Heinz announced its plan to split into two independent publicly traded companies, marking the end of the $46 billion merger led by Warren Buffett ten years ago, aimed at simplifying business structure and enhancing profitability in response to ongoing performance pressures and industry changes [2][4]. Group 1: Split Details - The split will create a "Global Flavor Enhancements Company" focused on sauces, condiments, and ready-to-eat meals, and a North American grocery company centered on brands like Oscar Mayer and Lunchables. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second half of 2026, pending regulatory approval [4][6]. - The split is anticipated to incur approximately $300 million in additional operating costs, but the company commits to maintaining its current dividend levels and aims to preserve its investment-grade credit rating [7]. Group 2: Historical Context - The merger in 2015 aimed to create one of the largest packaged food companies globally, driven by aggressive cost-cutting and scale effects. However, changing consumer preferences towards healthier and natural foods, along with inflationary pressures, have diminished the appeal of Kraft Heinz's traditional product lines [9]. - Since its peak in 2017, Kraft Heinz's market value has shrunk by about 70%. Warren Buffett publicly acknowledged misjudgments regarding the investment, leading to a $3 billion impairment charge in 2019. 3G Capital fully exited its stake in Kraft Heinz in 2023 [9]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The split of Kraft Heinz is part of a broader trend in the global packaged food industry, which is undergoing significant restructuring. For instance, Kellogg separated its cereal and snack businesses in 2023, and Mars announced a $36 billion acquisition of Kellanova in 2024 [10]. - Analysts suggest that traditional food giants are compelled to restructure and focus on high-growth categories to address market pressures, as health consciousness and consumer preferences evolve [10].

Core Insights - The beverage industry is facing intense competition, leading to challenges and uncertainties. The CEO of Vitasoy China, Wang Dong, has shared insights from his first year in the role, highlighting the company's performance and strategic direction [1] Financial Performance - Vitasoy International reported a revenue of HKD 6.274 billion for the fiscal year 2024/2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 1%. Net profit reached HKD 235 million, a significant increase of 102% [2] - The growth was primarily driven by improvements in the mainland China business, which saw a revenue increase of 1% and a 41% rise in operating profit, alongside strong performance in the Hong Kong market with a 24% increase in operating profit [2] - The company's gross profit margin improved to 51.3%, attributed to optimized procurement, enhanced operational efficiency, and cost control measures [2] Strategic Focus - Wang Dong emphasized the importance of stable business scale and recovery growth as key drivers for sustainable profit development. The company has systematically optimized internal management processes and operational efficiency, particularly in sales forecasting, production planning, and logistics management [2] - The company aims to continue enhancing operational efficiency and reducing raw material costs to further improve profitability [4] Pricing Strategy - Vitasoy has adjusted its pricing strategy to align with mainstream market levels, moving away from previously higher price points. Wang Dong clarified that the company will not engage in price wars that compromise product quality, instead opting for high-quality offerings in the premium price segment [4] - The company recognizes the complexity of consumer price perception, which varies significantly across different purchasing channels and usage scenarios [4] Product Development and Consumer Trends - Vitasoy has been actively innovating its product offerings, introducing new flavors and formats to meet evolving consumer preferences. Successful products include the Duck Shit Lemon Tea and White Peach Soy Milk, which were developed based on deep consumer insights [5][8] - The company is responding to a trend of increasing health consciousness among consumers, who are seeking personalized and diverse beverage options. This includes a growing interest in sugar-free teas and wellness-focused products [8] - Vitasoy's channel strategy is crucial in the rapidly evolving Chinese market, focusing on high-traffic and popular channels to align with consumer demand and shopping behaviors [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for structural growth opportunities [20][21]. Core Insights - The report highlights a stabilization in the price of Moutai, suggesting a potential improvement in sentiment within the liquor sector. It notes that while short-term demand fluctuations may lead to a slowdown in the liquor sector in Q2 2025, leading companies are working to maintain price stability, and smaller companies are adapting to consumer trends [20][21]. - The snack segment is experiencing stable performance in traditional channels, with rapid growth in membership supermarket channels. New products are expected to be launched in the second half of 2025, and the pet food sector is also showing good growth [20][21]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product quality enhancement, channel expansion, and innovative marketing strategies as key methods for companies to navigate current market challenges [20][21]. Summary by Sections Core Company Tracking - Luzhou Laojiao is improving market inventory and plans to expand its distribution network to four million terminals over the next five years. The company is also developing lower-alcohol products [11][12]. - Yanghe Co. has appointed new leadership, which is expected to drive organizational adjustments and enhance operational dynamics. The company continues to innovate its product line [12]. - Jiugui Liquor is focusing on channel adjustments and has partnered with a retail chain to explore new growth avenues [13]. - New Dairy is benefiting from cost advantages, leading to stronger profit release capabilities, with a focus on low-temperature milk products [14]. - Jinzai Food is in a cautious operational phase, with stable performance in traditional and snack channels [15][16]. - Zhongchong Co. is seeing continued growth in its self-owned brands, despite some export challenges [17]. - Petty Co. is expanding its product offerings in both snacks and staple foods, with a focus on New Zealand's production capacity [18]. - Anji Food has successfully listed its H shares, raising approximately 2.302 billion HKD [19]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors influenced by changing consumer trends, with specific recommendations for companies like Zhongchong Co., Guobao Pet Food, and Nongfu Spring [21]. - It also highlights structural growth opportunities in the restaurant chain recovery, recommending companies such as Zhujiang Beer and Yanjing Beer [21]. - For traditional consumer goods, it advises investing in leading liquor companies and dairy products, with a focus on companies like Yili and New Dairy [21]. Industry Overview - The food and beverage industry is characterized by a total of 143 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 478.1 billion RMB [4]. - The industry has shown a mixed performance, with a 1-month absolute performance of -4.7% and a 12-month performance of 28.2% [6].